The Making of Sports Betting Lines

TVG Network Quenches Sports Fans’ Thirst for Live Content With Horse Racing From Around the GlobeKeith Goldner, Vice President of Data Science at FanDuel, led a workshop on the conference’s second day explaining how sports betting lines were made.

“Most people are just familiar with seeing bet lines on their phones; how does it actually work?” Goldner asked the crowd at the start of his presentation.

Goldner said the main responsibility of FanDuel data scientists is to put out probability and sports betting lines as accurately as possible. This task is accomplished through a series of data sets implemented in a specific model.

First, data scientists ask what target they are trying to measure for the sport. Are they looking to predict points? Wins? Performance?

The following impact variables are taken into account and measured through each simulation:

  • Offensive efficiency
  • Opponent defensive efficiency
  • Weather
  • Team pace
  • Opponent pace
  • Defense efficiency
  • Opponent offensive efficiency
  • Injuries

“The more simulations you run, the more accurate your predictions will be,” Goldner stated.  More on the Making of sports betting lines

The Tells for a Fixed Sports Match

old boxing gloves hang on nail 

Integrity Services analysts working 24/7 and operating from their main base in London to hubs in Montevideo, Melbourne, Singapore, Las Vegas and Minneapolis pore over screens of live sporting fixtures and betting odds.

In 2022, they identified 1,212 suspicious matches within 12 sports across 92 countries.

While reflecting an increase of 34% from 2021, the data confirms 99.5% of sporting events are free from match-fixing, with no single sport having a suspicious match ratio greater than 1%.

Harding has at his disposal “a significant network of reconnaissance photographers” who are sent to stadia. Other members of the intelligence unit can also be deployed on site.

“They [the matchfixers] have to be in the stadium to communicate with players, and at times intimidate the players to go ahead with it,” Harding said…

The Tells for a Fixed Match in Sports

Over $10M in NFL Handicapping Contests at Circa Sports

Circa Sports is going all-in on its NFL handicapping contests next season.

The downtown sportsbook is ponying up the largest pro football contest guaranteed prize money ever of $10 million for Circa Millions III and Circa Survivor.

The $1,000 entry Circa Survivor will feature a $6 million guaranteed payout — up from $1 million last season — and the $1,000 entry Circa Millions III will feature $4 million in guaranteed payouts, up from $3 million last year.

“With all the interest in sports gambling and the fact that people were locked down, we felt football contests would explode in popularity,” Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens said. “We think doing the $10 million guarantee is going to be great for Las Vegas and is going to draw a lot of people to our city.

“This is going to create a great summer, and we’re excited about… continue reading

Pro Bettor James Holzhauer’s Key to Success

“Holzhauer has dominated “Jeopardy!” like no one else since the current version of the television game show had its premiere in 1984. He won again on the episode that aired Wednesday, pushing his total earnings above $1.1 million, second on the all-time list behind the legendary Ken Jennings.”

The NY Times interviewed Holzbauer in the spring of 2019, asking him several questions of how he was so successful on the popular show.

The big key to his success was going aggressive from the opening bell.  He would go right for the $1,000 questions, skipping the lower tier amounts.

As stated in the NY piece, you could make an analogy to sports betting or poker tournaments. There are big advantages to having a lot of chips early on in a poker tournament. Consequently, the bettor can make plays that other people can’t.

Would you describe the traditional way of playing “Jeopardy!” as overly risk-averse?

“I would definitely say it’s too risk-averse,” explained Holzbauer.  “The funny thing is, my strategy actually minimizes the risk of me losing a game. There’s times in a football game where a team goes for a big TD pass. If you don’t take a risk like that, you’re not going to win. Really, the big risk is never trying anything that looks like a big gamble.”

You can read the full Times interview of Holzhauer here.

 

How A 40-Year-Old Horse Racing Law Helped Move Sports Betting Forward

A look back…

Forty years ago, Congress passed a comprehensive bill for horse racing that could be a model for nationwide sports betting legislation.

The federal law — the Interstate Horseracing Act — even includes a “consent to bet” clause that may cause certain US sports league executives to drool.

Related developments in sports wagering are proceeding at a rapid pace, increasing the chances that Congress will weigh in soon.

Indeed, in just the last two months, potential sports betting legalization has moved from the US Supreme Court to the Indiana statehouse. The draft bill out of Indiana even mimics the 40 year-old horse racing statute, with a clause allowing sports governing bodies to “restrict or limit wagering” on certain events…

Source: How A 40-Year-Old Horse Racing Law Can Nudge Sports Betting Forward

Michigan Online Sports Betting Could Launch in Days

The wait is nearly over: Michigan online sports betting is finally close to launching.

It’s about time. MI sports betting and iGaming were legalized late in 2019, and retail sports betting launched in March.

A drawn-out rules process eventually wrapped in December. While there were hopes the market would launch last month, it now sounds like operators will definitely be prepared to take Super Bowl bets online.

“We could have an announcement this week,” Michigan Gaming Control Board Executive Director Richard Kalm said at this week’s board meeting.

“We’re very close,” he added later.

Here are the 15 sportsbooks in Michigan…

Churchill Approved for Sports Betting in Tennessee

In the same week CDI announced that it would be rebranding its sportsbook operations from BetAmerica to the TwinSpires, the company was approved by the Sports Wagering Committee of the Tennessee Education Lottery to operate in the Volunteer State.

David Smith, director of communications for the Tennessee Education Lottery, confirmed Jan. 8 that multiple reports of the approval are accurate. [Churchill Downs] CDI will be the fifth sportsbook operator in Tennessee…

Sports betting front and center in Georgia legalized gambling debate

ATLANTA — Advocates for bringing legalized gambling to Georgia will be back under the Gold Dome next month, pitching the financial benefits of casinos, horse racing and sports betting together and separately.

But legislation authorizing online sports betting in the Peach State may have the best odds to advance.

“It’s the easiest one to pass,” said Georgia Rep. Ron Stephens, R-Savannah, chairman of the House Economic Development & Tourism Committee. “It clearly does not require a constitutional amendment. … It’s just a matter of us giving the [Georgia] Lottery Commission direction and authority they already have.”

Efforts going back the better part of a decade to legalize casino gambling and pari-mutuel betting on horse racing in Georgia have been unable to muster the two-thirds majorities in the state House and Senate required to approve constitutional amendments and put them on the statewide ballot…

Pro Gamblers Accuse William Hill Of Cheating On In-Game Bets

William Hill US has been accused by at least two prominent sports bettors of intentionally delaying the acceptance of in-game wagers in the Silver State, depending on if the wager is good or bad for the book. In other words, they’re saying it’s allegedly not a technology shortcoming, but a deliberate attempt by the book to boost its winning percentage against gamblers.

But some in the industry say the problem is the result of an unintentional bias in a less than ideal product, with it possibly impacting bettors evenly. Most people do agree there is an issue.

In a statement to Sports Handle, William Hill flatly denied the claims, and indicated it may seek legal action against one of the accusers.

Prominent sports bettors Bill Krackomberger and Rufus Peabody, who both …

Indianapolis Colts Partner with Caesars Entertainment and William Hill to Sign First NFL Team Sponsorship

“In the digital age, and particularly this virtual world in which we find ourselves now, finding new ways to engage with our fans, partners and community is one of our top priorities,” said Roger VanDerSnick, Colts Chief Sales & Marketing Officer. “This partnership with Caesars Entertainment and William Hill will help us better connect with Colts fans everywhere as we navigate this very unique season in 2020 and offer a greater fan experience well into the future.”

As part of the agreement, Caesars Rewards, the largest customer loyalty program in the industry, will sponsor a free-to-play “Pick 6 Predictor” game on the Colts Mobile App. The Pick 6 Predictor generates a series of questions, that fans predict the outcome of, before the upcoming games. Correct picks are rewarded with weekly prizes, and all participants are entered into a chance to win a trip to Las Vegas to stay at a Caesars Entertainment property