Travers Day Full-card Analysis by Rich Nilsen

with Wagering Strategies & Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Past Results:  Nilsen selected the winner of the 2022 Travers, Epicenter, but missed the exacta.  He gave out two spot plays, the second one Wicked Groove won the finale.  He paid a whopping $18.20 win and keyed a winning $98.00 exacta!  Nilsen put his first sheet since the 2023 Derby with the Whitney Stakes and crushed the card, nailing 10-1 winner White Abarrio!  Read more about he came up with this selection over the big favorite Cody’s Wish.

On the 2021 Travers’ sheet analysis he had all 13 winners listed among his selections for each race.  In 2016 Nilsen crushed the Travers Day card, selecting Haveyougoneaway who upset the G1 Ballerina at odds of 10-1!   But Nilsen wasn’t done.  He followed up that score up by giving out top selection ARROGATE, track-record winner of the G1 Travers Stakes who paid an amazing $25.40 to win for followers of the sheet.  Another top pick ran 2nd at odds of 17-1 in race 3 on that day, returning a huge place payoff.

Rich Nilsen handicapper

About This Year’s Travers Day Report

Rich Nilsen is the founder of AGameofSkill.com and one of the top tournament players in the country as a winner of 8 major handicapping contests and an 18x NHC qualifier.

Nilsen only does a few sheets a year and this is one of them.  He offers up his full-card analysis for Saratoga on Saturday, August 26th.

The analysis provides selections for every race plus 3 best bet spot plays along with wagering strategies.  Each race includes Nilsen’s detailed pace scenario which explains how the race will set up.  Nilsen provides his top selection for the Travers’ Stakes,  commentary  and he offers up his recommended  Trifecta wagers for the big race.

Put an expert on your side as you attack Saratoga on their biggest day of the year. Get all 13-races for a very affordable price while also supporting a GREAT cause.

A Special Reason to Buy

Each purchase of this sheet (something I only put out 4-5 times a year) will benefit families in desperate need of clean water. One water filter, which only costs $30, can provide clean water for an entire family for 10 years! 50% of the proceeds will be used to purchase water filters for families in Central America or Africa. If you have a big day on Saturday, please consider becoming a Water4Life Ambassador as a monthly donor

2023 Travers’s Day – All 13 Races

Affordable at only $19.77 for the full card.

 

Download instantly to any device. 11-page PDF document.

This sheet contains:

  • Top selections for all 13 races
  • OFF-the-Turf selections, including one bomber if the races come off the grass
  • Sophisticated Pace Scenario for all 13 races
  • 3 Spot Plays (Best Bets) on the undercard w/ wagering strategies
  • Analysis of the 2023 Travers Stakes with Win and Trifecta strategies.

The Travers Day card features over $1.6 Million in Guaranteed wagers.


Previous Travers’ Testimonials:

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

 


About Rich Nilsen

Founder of AGameofSkill.com, Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournament and an 18-time qualifier to the 3 million-dollar National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).  There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s awesome 13-race Travers card.

 

Get selections for all 13 races on the Saratoga Saturday card.  Download now for only $19.97 to any device.

 

Whitney Day Full-card Analysis by Rich Nilsen

with Wagering Strategies & Spot Plays

Last Year’s Travers Day Results:  Nilsen selected the winner of the Travers, Epicenter, but missed the exacta.  He gave out two spot plays, the second one Wicked Groove won the finale.  He paid a whopping $18.20 win and keyed a winning $98.00 exacta! He is back at Saratoga for the first time since with a special Whitney Day report.

Rich Nilsen handicapper

About This Special Report

Rich Nilsen is the founder of AGameofSkill.com and one of the top tournament players in the country.

Nilsen only does a few sheets a year and this is the first time he has ever offered a sheet for the Whitney card. After a deep dive into the 12 races, he provides his full-card analysis for Saratoga on Saturday, August 5th.

A Special Reason to Buy

Each purchase of this sheet (something I only put out 4-5 times a year) will benefit families in desperate need of clean water. One water filter, which only costs $30, can provide clean water for an entire family for 10 years! 50% of the proceeds will be used to purchase water filters for families in Central America or Africa. If you have a big day on Saturday, please consider becoming a Water4Life Ambassador as a monthly donor

The analysis provides selections for every race plus three best bet spot plays along with wagering strategies.  Each race includes Nilsen’s detailed pace scenario which explains how the race will set up.  Nilsen provides his top selection for the Whitney Stakes,  commentary  and he offers up his recommended  wagers for the big race.  He has a horse he believes can upset Cody’s Wish!

Put an expert on your side as you attack Saratoga on one of their biggest days of the year. Get all 12-races for under $2 per race.

2023 Whitney Day – All 12 Races

Affordable at only $19.97 for the full card.

Full card analysis – instant download

 

Download instantly to any device. 9-page PDF document.

This sheet contains:

  • Top selections for all 12 races
  • Sophisticated Pace Scenario for all 12 races
  • 3 Spot Plays (Best Bets) on the undercard w/ wagering strategies – one that is a potential HUGE price. Includes mapped-out Trifecta strategies
  • Analysis of the Whitney Stakes with Exacta strategies.
  • BONUS! Complimentary Pace Chart for the full card at Del Mar! Identify the pace scenarios for each and every race on Saturday

Previous  Testimonials:

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

 


About Rich Nilsen

Founder of AGameofSkill.com, Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournament and an 18-time qualifier to the $3 million-dollar National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).  There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s 12-race Whitney card.

 

Get selections for all 12 races on the Saratoga Saturday card plus a bonus pace chart for the full card at Del Mar. Download Now

Met Mile and Belmont Stakes Notes

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said Zedan Racing Stables’ multiple Grade 1-winner Taiba will skip Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap, at Belmont Park.

Taiba worked seven-furlongs in 1:27.40 Friday at Santa Anita in what was to be his final prep for the one-turn mile for 3-year-olds and up which offers a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November at the Arcadia, California oval. He has not raced since an eighth-place effort in the Group 1 Saudi Cup on February 25 at King Abdulaziz Racecourse.

“His works have been good, but not like I’d like to see them. I just don’t think he’s ready for something like that yet,” said Baffert, who won the 2017 Metropolitan with Mor Spirit. “I’m going to wait and run him at Del Mar. He’s doing well, but not well enough for the Met Mile. To run in the Met Mile, you have to bring your ‘A’ game and I don’t think he’s quite there yet.”

The 4-year-old Gun Runner colt’s trio of Grade 1 scores came in the Santa Anita Derby last April, the Pennsylvania Derby in September at Parx and the Malibu in December at Santa Anita.

National Treasure Works for Belmont Stakes

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan’s Grade 1 Preakness-winner National Treasure is slated to breeze Monday in preparation for the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.

The Quality Road sophomore added blinkers and made all the running in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness on May 20 with Hall of Famer John Velazquez up, outdueling Blazing Sevens for a narrow head score with Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Mage settling for third.

Baffert said he is hopeful that National Treasure will appreciate the added ground in the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion.”

“You never know until they do it,” Baffert said. “He handled the Preakness distance and it wasn’t a problem for him. We’re all in the same boat. None of them probably want to go that far, but if they don’t go too fast, they can do it.

“I just want him to show up like he did at Pimlico,” added Baffert. “He’s never really run a bad race. All his races have been competitive. He’s a pretty consistent horse. He’s happy and he’ll breeze tomorrow and hopefully everything goes well.”

Baffert, who previously won the Belmont Stakes with Point Given [2001] and Triple Crown-winners American Pharoah [2015] and Justify [2018], will be in attendance Saturday for the final leg of the Triple Crown.

National Treasure graduated at first asking in September at Del Mar and hit the board in a trio of stakes in the Grade 1 American Pharoah [2nd] in October at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile [3rd] in November at Keeneland and the Grade 3 Sham [3rd] in January at Santa Anita. He finished fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in April ahead of his Preakness coup.

Zedan Racing Stables’ graded-stakes placed Arabian Lion rolled to a frontrunning four-length score last out under Velazquez in the 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard.

While initially under consideration for the Belmont Stakes, Baffert decided to point the Justify chestnut to the Grade 1, $400,000 Woody Stephens presented by Mohegan Sun, a seven-furlong sprint for sophomores.

“On the turnback, sometimes they run well. We’ll send him back to two turns again after that,” Baffert said.

Arabian Lion, who boasts a ledger of 6-2-2-0 for purse earnings of $217,600, entered the Sir Barton from a pacesetting runner-up effort to First Mission in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Lexington on April 15 at Keeneland.

Undercard of Belmont Stakes 2023

Baffert will also enter multiple graded-stakes placed Fort Bragg in the Woody Stephens. The Tapit colt, who was third in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December, finished second last out in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile a neck back of returning rival General Jim on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs.

“He’s still improving and filling out,” Baffert said. “He’s maturing and there’s a lot of room to improve.”

Baffert previously won the Woody Stephens with Bayern [2014] and American Anthem [2017].

The Belmont Stakes headlines the three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival that features a total of 16 stakes events from Thursday, June 8 through Saturday, June 10. For additional information on the 2023 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival and details on hospitality offerings, ticket packages and pricing, visit BelmontStakes.com.

Source: NYRA.com

A Handicapper’s Look at Canterbury Park, the Low Takeout Track

Canterbury Parkby The Oracle

Opening day of the 2023 Canterbury Park live racing meet is Saturday, May 27! That means it’s time to look back at the 2022 Canterbury Park live meet from a statistical standpoint and use that data to help us better predict the outcomes of the 2023 Canterbury Park races.

Canterbury Park offers many low-takeout wagers, including the Pick 4, Pick 5 and a brand-new Turf Pick 3 that will be offered on Wednesday nights. It will pay to get involved in these wagers at Canterbury Park.

Here’s a look at some final statistics for the thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park in 2022, as we prepare to unlock the 2023 Canterbury Park handicapping puzzle…

Favorites at Canterbury Park

The public correctly selected the winner 41% of the time in all thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park last year. That is 3-percentage points above the national average for winning favorites at all racetracks in North America in 2022, and equal to how favorites fared at Canterbury Park in 2021. All categories of races, including turf, dirt, sprint, route, maiden, claiming, and allowance races showed favorites winning between 39% and 43% of the time. This varied quite a bit from previous years, when the turf races had…continue reading about the Numbers at Canterbury Park

Did you miss this at AGOS?

How Well Do Favorites Perform?

Nilsen’s Simple Pace Report for Pimlico Saturday – Preakness Day

All 28 races for Friday and Saturday at Pimlico covered in one report, the new Nilsen Simple Pace Report. Use this as a vital tool to supplement your handicapping for these two great days!

the Big A race horsePace Makes the Race

One of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario.

After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market.

Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.  There are several of these ‘pace advantage horses’ on both days at Pimlico.

Download today and get both cards in one report for only $7.  Instant download to any device.

 

 


Read the latest news – What was life like for NY horseplayers decades ago?

Get Rich Nilsen’s complimentary analysis of the Preakness Stakes

Kentucky Derby 149, the Kentucky Derby Day Program, and Kentucky Derby Week Races All Set New Handle Records

Mage Crowned Winner of 2023 Kentucky DerbyLOUISVILLE, KY., – Churchill Downs Incorporated (“CDI”) (Nasdaq: CHDN) announced that a spirited and vibrant crowd of 150,335 Derby fans at Churchill Downs Racetrack (“Churchill Downs”) witnessed Mage claim the Garland of Roses at the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve at 15-1 odds under mostly sunny skies. CDI also announced that wagering from all sources was the highest all-time on the Kentucky Derby race, the Kentucky Derby Day program, and Kentucky Derby Week races.

Mage Upsets the Kentucky Derby

Mage, owned by OGMA Investments, LLC (Gustavo Delgado), Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing (Sam Herzberg) and Commonwealth Thoroughbred LLC (Brian Doxtator and Chase Chamberlin), bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine (Robert Clay), trained by Gustavo Delgado, and ridden by Javier Castellano, rallied to win by a length. Mage covered the mile and a quarter in 2.01.57 over a fast track.

Wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program set a new record of $288.7 million, beating last year’s record of $273.8 million. All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $188.7 million, beating the previous record of $179.0 million set in 2022. All-sources handle for Derby Week rose to a new record of $412.0 million, beating last year’s record of $391.8 million.

TwinSpires, the official betting partner of the Kentucky Derby, handled a new record of $73.6 million in wagering on Churchill Downs races for the Kentucky Derby Day program, compared to last year’s record of $67.4 million. TwinSpires’ handle on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $47.0 million, beating last year’s record of $44.0 million.
“We were thrilled to debut our new First Turn Experience, a one-of-a-kind premium accommodation with exclusive views of the horses and the racetrack from the rail of the first turn, as we commemorated the 50th anniversary of Secretariat’s victory in the Run for the Roses,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of CDI. “We expect the Kentucky Derby Week Adjusted EBITDA to reflect a new record with $14 to $16 million of growth over the prior record set last year. We will now accelerate our focus on our year-long celebration in preparation for the 150th Kentucky Derby in May 2024.”

Nilsen’s Simple Pace Report for the KY Oaks and KY Derby Cards

New sports betting proposal would give horse racing tracks gives share of revenue in effort to move bill forwardAll 27 races for Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs covered in one report, the new Nilsen Simple Pace Report. Use this as a vital tool to supplement your handicapping for these two great days!

Pace makes the race

One of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario. After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market.

Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.

Download today and get both cards in one report for only $15.  Instant download to any device.

 


Check out The Wizard’s Kentucky Derby Preview report

Whatever happened to Rich Strike?

NTRA National Horseplayers Championship Goes to Paul Calia

After a weekend of nail-biting handicapping prowess, Paul Calia, of Kansas City, Missouri, toppled a field of 779 entries to take home the grand prize of $800,000, in addition to finishing in 4th place, and an Eclipse Award crowning him Horseplayer of the Year. This is the first contest that Calia has ever won.

Calia amassed a winning score of $362.50 on his first entry, and $305.50 on his second entry, over the three-day tournament from 53 mythical $2 Win and Place bets – 18 on Friday, 18 on Saturday, 10 in Sunday morning’s Semifinal round, and 7 at the exciting Final Table which ultimately yielded his victory. He is the first winner to also finish in the top ten with a second entry.

“I started a little slow on Friday, thought I handicapped okay with some seconds and thirds. But Saturday I was pretty hot, and pretty much hit every long shot. It’s hard to put into words how many winners I picked on Saturday,” Calia said.

 

When asked his approach to playing two cards in the final table he said, “I don’t know how to describe it. I didn’t switch a lot of picks, I don’t let the odds affect me. I only switched about 10-15% of my picks between cards, one or two a day that’s it.”

His strategy obviously paid off. Calia will take home $800,000 for his first-place finish in addition to taking home $150,000 for his fourth-place finish. With this victory, Calia also earns an exemption into next year’s NHC and a berth to the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge worth $10,000. In lieu of winning a second BCBC entry, which he won from finishing first on day two (Saturday), he will instead take home $10,000 cash. That makes his full earnings from the weekend a whopping $960,000 and a 2024 BCBC seat valued at $10,000.

“There are three pillars to the sport of Thoroughbred racing – you have the horse and its connections, the racetracks, and the horseplayer,” said NTRA President and CEO Tom Rooney. “So, if horse racing is a three-legged stool, we aren’t anything without the horseplayer. My family’s relationship with this sport and with football all traces back to playing horses. The excitement at the NHC is vital to everything we do as an industry. This year’s NHC is bigger than ever before and I’m proud that the NTRA has this unique opportunity to showcase the best of the best in handicapping and celebrate what it means to be a horseplayer.”

 

The official Top 10 finishers of the 2023 NHC are:

1. Paul Calia (first entry), $362.50, Kansas City, MO, 2nd NHC Appearance

2. Francis Boustany, $330.30, Lafayette, LA, 7th NHC Appearance

3. Gary Fenton, $309.60, Sherman Oaks, CA, 4th NHC Appearance

4. Paul Calia (second entry), $305.50, Kansas City, MO, 2nd NHC Appearance

5. David Browning, $302.80, Lexington, KY, 3rd NHC Appearance

6. George Novick, $290, Pocono Pines, PA, 2nd NHC Appearance

7. Steven Wells (second entry), $289.40, Fordville, ND, 5th NHC Appearance

8. Joseph Paese, $288.50, Middletown, PA, 2nd NHC Appearance

9. Steven Wells (first entry), $281.60, Fordville, ND, 5th NHC Appearance

10. Steve Nemetz, $281.50, Vancouver, BC, 11th NHC Appearance

 

NTRA National Horseplayers ChampionshipThe 2022 NHC paid out the top 68 finishers. This year, the top 78 finishers will take home prize money. Total cash prizes to be offered over the three days was a record $3,115,350, a 33% increase over last year. The full prize structure can be found online.

In a separate Consolation Tournament on Sunday for players that did not reach the Semifinals round, Karen Richards of Pembroke Pines, FL, won the $10,000 top prize with a bankroll of $130.40 from 10 optional races. The Consolation Tournament started with bankrolls reset to zero. Cash prizes totaling $50,000 were awarded, from the $10,000 first prize down to $1,000 for 20th.

NHC weekend concluded with the annual Champions’ Dinner, featuring the presentation of prizes and the induction of the 2022 NHC Hall of Fame class: Jose Arias, Dennis Decauwer, Jim Goodman, and Bill Shurman.

Retired Disability Advisor for Social Security from Kansas City Takes First and Fourth for $960,000 in cash and Eclipse Award as Horseplayer of the Year

The NHC, the world’s richest and most prestigious handicapping contest, featured 779 entrants competing for more than $3.1 million in cash and prizes. All qualifiers received a complimentary four night stay at the Horseshoe Las Vegas and travel reimbursements which totaled more than $1 million.

The tournament format for the NHC is meant to be the best possible test of overall handicapping ability by picking winners. Players attempt to earn the highest possible bankroll based on mythical $2 Win and Place wagers. Assigned “mandatory” races – eight per day on Day 1 and Day 2, and seven at the Final Table – are announced at least 36 hours prior to each contest day via direct e-mail to players and publicly on Twitter (@NTRA) and NTRA.com.

In addition to its three presenting sponsors ― Caesars Entertainment, Horseshoe Las Vegas and RTN ― the NHC is supported by official partners Daily Racing Form, EquinEdge, Four Roses Bourbon and Race Lens.

For the complete Caesar’s Race and Sports Book NHC Leaderboard and other contest information, please visit NTRA.com. To sign up for the NHC Tour, go to www.ntra.com/membership.

Next Year’s NYRA Horse Racing Schedule Announced

Belmont Park horse racingThe New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) today announced its 2023 NYRA racing calendar which includes 202 live race days at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, and Saratoga Race Course.

Live racing is currently being conducted at Aqueduct, where the 2022 fall meet runs through Saturday, December 31. For the complete 2022 Aqueduct fall meet stakes schedule, visit NYRA.com/AQU.

Following the conclusion of the 2022 Aqueduct fall meet, the 44-day Big A winter meet will run from January 1 through March 26 with live racing conducted Thursday-Sunday until February 12. From Friday, February 17 through the end of the winter meet, live racing will be held Friday-Sunday.The 19-day Aqueduct spring meet, which spans Thursday, March 30 to Sunday, April 30, will see live racing return to a Thursday-Sunday schedule.

Belmont Park Meet

Live racing on the NYRA circuit will return to beautiful Belmont Park for a 40-day spring/summer meet, which is highlighted by the 155th running of the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets on Saturday, June 10. The 2023 spring/summer meet will run from Thursday, May 4 through Sunday, July 9. Live racing will generally be conducted Thursday-Sunday throughout the spring/summer meet.

The 40-day summer meet at historic Saratoga Race Course will open on Thursday, July 13 and continue through Labor Day, September 4. Following opening weekend, racing will be conducted five days per week from Wednesday-Sunday with the exception of the six-day closing week. The summer meet is anchored by the 95th running of the Whitney on August 5 and the 154th running of the Travers on August 26.

Following the conclusion of the 2023 summer meet, the Belmont Park fall meet will again be held at Aqueduct to allow for the reconstruction of the three Belmont racing surfaces. The 28-day Belmont at the Big A fall meet will open on Thursday, September 14 and continue through Sunday, October 29. Live racing will generally be conducted Thursday-Sunday throughout the Belmont at the Big A fall meet.

The 2023 season will conclude with the 31-day Aqueduct fall meet which runs from Thursday, November 2 through Sunday, December 31, 2023.

For the 2023 calendar of live race dates in New York.

Source: NYRA