Derek Simon’s Kentucky Derby Betting Guide for Derby 148

It’s back! The one and only Kentucky Derby Guide from handicapping guru Derek Simon.

Simon’s in-depth KY Derby report offers 20 pages of insightful information on the most exciting two minutes in sports, the 148th Kentucky Derby.  Just some of the content includes:

KY Derby Facts & Figures

A popular section that includes a myriad of unique and relevant stats pertaining to the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

Over the past 30 years, horses with a form rating of less than 50% are 1-for-123 in America’s biggest race. What six horses fall into that category this year? What horse is trying to accomplish something that NO HORSE IN THE HISTORY OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY has been able to do? Answers are in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide!

Derby Prep Grades

I use a “key race” algorithm I developed many years ago to grade every major final Kentucky Derby prep. Since 1991, only one Kentucky Derby winner has exited a prep with a failing grade (F) and there is one such prep this year. I also give statistics on all the key preps.

Find out what key Kentucky Derby prep has produced just one Derby winner from 90 starters since 1992.

Final Fractions Theory

I expound on the now popular Final Fractions Theory, which was conceived by Colonel Edward R. Bradley and popularized by Jennie Rees. Using more scientific, dynamic values for lengths, I find out who the fastest finishers among the Derby entrants are.

Discover which horses have a 1.46 impact value based on the final fractions of their last race, and which have a 0.53 IV based on the same criterion.

Find out:

  • Horse-by-horse Statistical Look by Derek Simon
  • See the speed rating pattern that has produced zero Kentucky Derby winners (from 37 starters) since 1992. Observe the pattern that has produced a 30 percent ROI as well!
  • In the past 30 years, six horses (of 40) won the Kentucky Derby after recording an LSR of -5 or greater and an ESR of less than 0 in their final prep, producing profits across the board. What four potential Derby entrants qualify this year?
  • The 2022 Kentucky Derby Contenders Likely to Regress (and Progress!)
  • and more!

Download instantly today and attack the Run for the Roses.  Only $25

Derek Simon’s Kentucky Derby Betting Guide is Here.  Download Today



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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 19-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 of the NHC twice. A former executive with and a member of the NHC Players’ Committee, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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