by NHC Hall of Famer Brett Wiener

I’ve read many posts, especially lately, wondering “where to start?” or “what should I look for?” when first looking at the PPs (Past Performances): DRF/Bris/Equibase.

I will try to address this in the Beginner’s Guide to Handicapping, and hopefully, help with that initial viewing of the PP’s for a race.

The PPs are a look into the PAST.  They are NOT a view into the future.

Just because a horse has been improving every race, it doesn’t mean it will again, and vice versa.

Every single race, is a total separate event. NO CONNECTION, to the races prior.

Simply, use the past races as a “telling of a story” about a horse’s path to this single race.

Trying to pick the winner is a start of an investigation, into all phases of what the PP’s has to offer.

The FIVE W’s of ‘Capping

The basics of ALL investigations, we were taught are …….Who, What, Where, Why, When

WHO?

Human Connections are the basic thing to know, and probably, THE MOST IMPORTANT.

Who are the jockeys, trainers, owners?  Who are the TOP connections?

Why is a certain jockey riding for a certain trainer, but only in THIS race and not in other races?

If a jockey won for a trainer, a few races ago, but now is riding for a different trainer here?

Why is there a jockey change on a horse?  A new trainer? And the %’s accordingly to each move.

WHAT?

Type of race. Conditions of race.  Listed on top of the PP’s.  VERY Important handicapping information to know.

Claiming race?  Allowance? Starter? Stakes? Non-winners of ‘x’ races?  There are MANY different types of conditions and understanding them is critical.

NW2 (of two races) NW2x (of two races “other than”) They seem the same BUT are totally different!

NW2 are for those without two wins in their lifetime. NW2x is for those without two wins OTHER THAN certain types of races, e.g. maiden, starter, etc. So, in NW2x, a horse can have many wins in the “other than” category, and still qualify to run in this.

Then, there are also races for NW1y (non-winners of a race in a year).

Conditions include AGE of entrants.  2yo, 3yo and then the “3yo and ups”

A race for 3 yo “only” restrictions,can be easier than 3yo and ups. This is especially true earlier in the 3 yo’s race year, such as May and June. The “up” allows for all ages.

Then there are State Bred restricted races. All are noted in the PP’s.

Familiarize yourself with the classes.  Do not only use Purse Value to decide Class.

When a horse goes from a restricted race, to an open (non-restricted) race, and vice versa, it should be noted.  That is very important as it can represent a serious drop in class.

copyright 2017 Equibase and Brisnet.com

Type of Meds used. Lasix is used to help a horse not bleed internally during a race.  In most stakes races, Lasix is no longer allowed.  Will this affect the horse’s performance?  Is Lasix used?  First time?  Did the horse bleed last time? Throw out that performance. Trainer %’s first time Lasix (L)?  Second time?

Equipment is being used.  Blinkers on? off? Bandages? Front bandages are noted in the PP’s.  When an equipment change is made, it has to be noted and why.  You can see how the horse did prior, and what the affect will be with the new changes.

WHERE?

What Track, Distance, Surface, Conditions, Post Position?

This is the physical properties of the race.  No guessing here. You need to KNOW ALL of these to pick a winner ….period.

With this info, you will determine what horse thrives at these parameters, But, it doesn’t have to be the BEST at all of these, just BETTER than the OTHERS, in this specific race.

Distance is tricky. Some tracks run one mile races as one turn, some two turns, some a bend then one turn. Belmont runs 1 1/8^th mile races as one turn.  Over time, you will learn how this changes the fractions, track position, pace when comparing these from track to track. I may cover this in a future edition.

Will a sprinter that closes, keep closing at a longer distance?  Will a speed horse that seems to quit in sprints, still quit while going long?  All open questions, but every single case will be different.  There is no “golden rule.”  Breeding stats, will help with this, from sire and dam side.  Trainer stats will also give an idea.  First time route %?  Sprint/Sprint/Route %? etc.  Again, over time, you will notice certain “patterns” in the PP’s, that work.  These will become “angles” that you will look for.

Distance changes, dirt, all-weather surfaces (AW), Turf surfaces.  ALL are of the MOST IMPORTANT.  This is where breeding stats will enter the fold.  You will also see certain sires/dams will produce higher % winners on certain surfaces and distances.  If it is NOT in your PP’s, it needs to be (I use Bris Ultimate PPs) or, you can get a stat sheet with the %’s.  This will help in the beginning, to give you a better chance.

This is a little “advanced” But….. if a horse runs a bad race on one surface, THEN, is being bet going onto a different surface, this can be a “sign” of knowledge of the dislike for the past track and the affinity for the new one.

Fast, Good, Muddy, Sloppy, Firm, Good, Soft, Yielding……all need to be looked at when the horse ran on previous, and now on a different condition, and how that horse performed on TODAY’S conditions exclusively. Certain horses have a liking for ONLY certain tracks, distances, conditions.

I will cover more on Post Positions in the future.  It’s a VERY tricky, to understand and master, as a part of ‘capping.  The main thing, I will stress is look for races where a horse was BADLY hindered by the post it had, at a certain track/situation (can be inside or outside), and draw a line through ALL of those races in the PP’s. This is because the horse it had a slim chance of success. Move up horses, that actually showed “some” success from that handicap. Hindered by the “post” is different that “trouble” in the race, although BOTH can happen on the same event.

WHY?

This is the HARDEST handicapping tool to teach.  INTENTIONS.

WHY is this horse entered in THIS race? Again, over time. This will be a top “angle.”

Entered to win, entered just for experience, or entered as early speed to help another closer? There are many reasons.

You have to decide, BEFORE you make a horse your win selection, that it is actually entered TO WIN.

It is again, very hard, to determine the intentions, of a very big DROP in class, of a runner.  Entered just to get claimed away? Because it is hurt? Just need room in barn?  Again….. these are the races I “pass” on playing usually, because, WE THE GAMBLER, know the least.

Usually, you will be saying “if this horse is in shape, it will win.”  Well, I’m not willing to “guess” when wagering, when there are better races to bet on.  They will still run the race, even if you do not wager.  Watching, observing, learning, is NEVER a loss.  Then, after the post positions are drawn, will this horse try his hardest, when he is disadvantaged by the draw? Or be saved for next race? Use this as a work?  All questions that are worthy of asking, but hard to answer.  Look for horses, that may have not had the “intention to win” last race or two, for certain factors, but NOW is set to show its best.

NOTE – This is how you may find a great longshot to play.

Between the races you can “excuse” in the PP’s for past non-optimal conditions (distance/surface), post position hindrance and lack of Intentions…… there will be the lines you should THEN concentrate on, to show the horse’s TRUE ability.

WHEN?

Sounds simple.  When is the race? You all are saying… “I got this.”  Yes, you know the date.  BUT, do you know the “significance” of WHY the horse is running on THIS exact day?  This can be combined with the above Intentions.  A horse can be entered, in many different races by the trainer. Why this one?  Was it the ONLY one available for its “condition?” e.g.,NY Bred NW1 @ 1mile Dirt.

If it was the only race available, is it entered “anyway” and not the horses “strength.” Is it only running for conditioning, to then “hope” to be in shape to win the NEXT time at its preferred race type.  Is the horse returning off a layoff?  Second off a layoff? Third?  Why was it laid off?  Class drop since?

Certain trainers are better at certain things.  The PP’s will show the %’s of each circumstance.    You then, can determine the horse’s chances.  Also…look for WHEN the workouts are spaced.  Even spacing is preferred.  See what has worked for this horse in the past. Any “patterns” you notice, good OR bad?  Eliminating horses, because of poor “timing” is also very important.  Just like removing them for non-optimal conditions, post position, distance, surface, etc.   The more horses you can “eliminate,” it will improve your success rate.

Using the PPs to Learn

AFTER every race, look at the PPs of the winner. What shows in the PPs that I could have seen to put me on this one?  Any winning patterns?  If you noticed the same pattern next time, it may tip you off.

Then, look at the horse you picked, that lost…… What was the reason that you picked it? It lost. So…evaluate why it may have lost. Next time, that you see the same “thing,” remember that was a losing “angle,” and if it continues to be a bad angle……it can help to eliminate.

How to Contact Brett:

@BwVegas26    NoPointsforShow @ tampabay.rr.com  and on Facebook