Archives for April 2024

Kentucky Derby 150 Early Week Notes

Source: KY HPBA

Steve Asmussen after G3 Lecomte winner & Louisiana Derby 4th Track Phantom works outside of stablemate Mugen, the five-eighth eighths in 1:00 with fractions of 12.2, 24.1 and 47.3 and out six furlongs in 1:13.3 Video starts with b-roll of the Asmussen-trained Our Pretty Woman, who needs a scratch in order to run in the Kentucky Oaks, and her work, followed by b-roll and work video of Track Phantom. (Video shot from grandstand courtesy Churchill Downs’ Kevin Kerstein).
Phil D’Amato, before Stronghold went out to work (five-eighths in 59.80) under jockey Joe Talamo Sunday at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Stronghold’s first win came at Churchill Downs – an inordinately tough maiden race in which he beat fellow Derby contenders Resilience and Track Phantom – before he shipped out to D’Amato’s California base. The trainer talks about Stronghold, having to beat Bob Baffert to get enough points in the Santa Anita Derby to earn a Derby trip and notes that his first job at the racetrack was at Churchill Downs working for Chuck Simon.

 

Tap into Derek Simon’s Kentucky Derby Betting Guide – Learn some vital trends for putting your wagers and selections together.

D. Wayne Lukas after Arkansas Derby runner-up Just Steel works an easy half in 50.40 at Churchill Downs for Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby. “The Coach” also talks about his jockey, University of Texas McCombs School of Business grad Keith Asmussen. Video starts with b-roll (grandstand video courtesy Churchill Downs’ Kevin Kerstein).

Brian Coelho of Central California, who got into horse racing three years ago, was on hand at Churchill Downs to enjoy his first Kentucky Derby horse in the Arkansas Derby runner-up. “It’s a dream come true,” he says. Coelho now has part of more than 20 horses, saying that his wife “wanted a racehorse. When I do things, it’s usually jump with both feet in.”

Bill Mott on works by Wood Memorial winner Resilience and champion filly Just F Y I. (He also talks about the disappointment that his 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Country House, who was moved up to victory upon the interference disqualification of Maximum Security, was not able to race again and prove himself as a top horse.

From today’s Churchill Downs’ Derby barn notes:

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is bringing Wood Memorial (GII) winner Resilience up to the Kentucky Derby (GI) in old school fashion. On Sunday, Mott sent Resilience out for his third work in 10 days as the colt covered four furlongs in :49.20 during the 7:30 a.m. training session.
Shortly after stablemate and champion Just F Y I completed her half-mile breeze in advance of the Kentucky Oaks (GI), Resilience got down to his own bit of serious business in a solo move with blinkers on. The son of Into Mischief was well in hand through fractions of :12.60 and :24.80 before galloping out in 1:01.40.
And on Just F Y I’s work:  In registering her third workout in 10 days, George Krikorian’s homebred filly continued to flaunt good energy as she broke off solo during the 7:30 a.m. training period with trainer Bill Mott looking on from his pony. Alvarado was a passenger through splits of :24.80 with a gallop out in 1:02.40.

Saturday morning:

Labor investigation targets area racing trainer Brown

 

Chad Brown after Toyota Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone worked in company with Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product for Derby.
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who rides Sierra Leone in Derby but was aboard Domestic Product for work. “I’m living the dream right now,” Gaffalione said. Video starts out with some b-roll. Sierra Leone and Domestic Product’s splits were 13, 24.4, 36.2 and then out six furlongs in 1:13.1 and 1:26.1
Brad Cox on decision

made to run Lexington winner Encino in Derby after strong workout with Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom.

 

Danny Gargan – one of three Louisville-born trainers in next Saturday’s Kentucky Derby – talks about his contenders Dornoch and Society Man, who worked together a half-mile in a lively 46.3 seconds, galloping out five-eighths in 59 and 1:12.3.

Friday, April 26:

Owner-breeder Mike Repole addressed the media at Churchill Downs the morning that 2-year-old champion and Florida Derby winner Fierceness had his final work for the Kentucky Derby. This video is long but very entertaining – and sobering. Fierceness is the third 2-year-old champion that Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher have brought to the Derby. Uncle Mo was scratched the day before and Forte the morning of the race last year. Repole says that’s not bad luck – it’s good look that he’s back the very next year. Repole mentioned his close friendship with the late Kobe Bryant and said that puts having what you think is a bad day in perspective.
Todd Pletcher after Fierceness’ work at Churchill Downs with jockey John Velazquez. Video starts off with b-roll and work video (video shot from grandstand courtesy Churchill Downs’ Kevin Kerstein). Fierceness worked a half-mile in 48.4 after splits of 12.4, 24.4, 36.4 and then really picked it up on the gallop-out: Five-eighths in 1:00.3, 1:12.3 and 1:26 pulling up.
Saffie Joseph talks about Catalytic, who in his third start finished a well-beaten second to champion Fierceness in the Florida Derby – but earning the points to get in the Kentucky Derby. He also discusses being in the Derby the year after his horses, including Derby entrant Lord Mile, were scratched following the inexplicable collapsing and death of two of his horses. No wrong-doing was found, and Joseph was allowed back at Churchill Downs. But the circumstances cost him his 2022 Florida Derby winner White Abarrio, who went on to win the Grade 1 Whitney and Breeders’ Cup Classic for Rick Dutrow. Joseph says the experience made him a better person. Video begins with lots of b-roll of Catalytic training. Note: In this video, the interviewer incorrectly says that White Abarrio won the Met Mile. He was third in that race.

More Kentucky Derby 150 Notes

churchill downs ky derby dayFrom Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Todd Pletcher, after possible Derby favorite (and 2-year-old champ) Fierceness and G1 Ashland winner Leslie’s Rose trained at Churchill Downs for the first time after arriving Monday. In Fierceness, Pletcher for the third time brings in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champion (all owned by Mike Repole) to the Kentucky Derby. He’s hoping Florida Derby winner Fierceness is the first of the three to make it to the starting agate.
Jockey Ben Curtis, who came over from his European circuit looking for a new challenge in riding in America, finds himself with a Kentucky Derby mount only six months into riding in the U.S. Curtis finished second on Honor Marie in the Louisiana Derby, and trainer Whit Beckman and the owners opted to keep him aboard for the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky-based trainer Whit Beckman talks about keeping Ben Curtis on Honor Marie amid a barrage of phone calls from representatives of more prominent riders looking for a mount. (He talks about much more)
Source: Kentucky HBPA

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes

Kentucky HBPA communications has provided some outstanding resources to handicap the upcoming Kentucky Derby 150 on May 4, 2024. This includes interviews with trainers of the connections.

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Monday, April 22

Part 1 of interview with Brook T. Smith. Video starts with b-roll of Keeneland’s G1 Toyota Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone, in whom Louisville philanthropist and entrepreneur Brook Smith owns 16 percent.
Part 2 of Brook T. Smith: Sierra Leone’s 16-percent owner issues a challenge to 150 Churchill Downs owners or horses to raise money for the Backside Learning Center at Churchill Downs. ‘I almost thought about creating a challenge. If we could just get 150 owners, or 150 horses, and 1% of that 150 (gets donated to the Backside Learning Center at Churchill Downs), since it’s Derby 150, that moves a bigger needle than people realize.’ You won’t get a bigger platform than now. So get it started! ‘You heard me. That was kind of a challenge, I guess. Let’s find 150 horses running at Churchill and winning money and let’s ask those owners to think about 1 percent….’ The Derby winner’s total purse will be about $3.1 million out of the total purse of $5 million

Uncover the Winner and the Automatic Tosses in Kentucky Derby 150 from guru Derek Simon’s Kentucky Derby Betting Guide – just released.


Here’s the work description from today’s Derby/Oaks update by Kevin Kerstein:
RESILIENCE – Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman’s Resilience had a serious tune up for Kentucky Derby 150 Monday with a five-furlong move in 1:01.60 under jockey Junior Alvarado, who has the mount in the “Run for the Roses.” Resilience galloped about one-mile before he worked Monday at 9 a.m. The winner of the Wood Memorial (GII) breezed an opening quarter-mile in :25.80 and easily galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60, according to Churchill Downs Clocker John Nichols.
George Krikorian’s Ashland (GI) runner-up Just F Y I returned to the work tab Monday with a sharp five furlong breeze in :59.80 at Churchill Downs. Trained by Bill Mott, Just F Y I cruised through opening eighth-mile fractions of :12.20, :24.20 and :36 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.20 and seven furlongs in 1:25.40. She completed one mile in 1:40.20 while remaining in hand under jockey Junior Alvarado.

Nyquist KY Derby 2016

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes –

Sunday, April 21

Steve Asmussen interview. Fresh off driving all night after Saturday’s races at Oaklawn Park, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen was at Churchill Downs dark and early Sunday morning for workouts for his Kentucky Derby contender Track Phantom (5 furlongs in 1:00.80 in company with Carbone) and Kentucky Oaks contender Our Pretty Woman (5 furlongs in 1:00 in company with stakes-winner Otto the Conquerer.
Interview with trainer Val Brinkerhoff, who in addition to have New York’s G3 Gazelle winner Where’s My Ring is working on relocating a string of horses from Southern California to Kentucky. Video begins with some b-roll of Where’s My Ring.

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Saturday April 20

We caught up with trainer Chad Brown after Keeneland’s G1 Toyota Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone worked Saturday morning at the Lexington track (half-mile in 48.80 in company with White Palomino). In pursuit of his first victory in the Kentucky Derby, Chad also is running Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product. According to the Keeneland clockers, Sierra Leone logged splits of :12.40, :24.20 and :36.80 before galloping out in 1:01.20 and 1:15.60 under exercise rider Kriss Bon. Click here for Keeneland’s video of the work.
B-roll of Sierra Leone, with exercise rider Kriss Bon aboard on the inside, working with stablemate White Palomino.
Eric Foster talks about having his first Kentucky Oaks winner in Turfway Park’s Bourbonette Oaks winner Everland, claimed out of a $30,000 maiden-claiming race, and Maxisuperfly, an $18,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase who could go in Churchill Downs’ Eight Belles or the Edgewood on turf.  Eric Foster is from Utica, KY near Owensboro and is a regular fixture at Ellis Park. He comes into the Kentucky Oaks fresh off his first trainer’s title, taking the crown at Turfway Park.

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Thursday April 18

Kenny McPeek on Kentucky Oaks contender Thorpedo Anna “They better bring a bear, because I’m bringing a grizzly.”
Trainer Kenny McPeek on his go-to jockey Brian Hernandez. The men, who both make the Louisville are their home, will team to try to win their first Kentucky Derby and/or Kentucky Oaks in two weeks.
Outriders keep Dornoch, others safe (starring Lee Lockwood!): On the racetrack, little unexpected happenstances become part of the daily routine. The key is for them not to become big adverse happenstances. For instance, earlier this week, trainer Danny Gargan sent Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch to the track for what was to be a routine gallop under exercise rider Priscilla Schaefer. Another horse unseated its rider behind Dornoch and started running. As it turned out, Dornoch was right in front of Gargan, in a viewing stand, who yelled at Schaefer to keep going, to keep the horse behind her. Meanwhile (and the point of this video), outrider Lee Lockwood got the riderless horse down by the outer rail, collecting him in one of the moves the Churchill Downs outriders make look routine. (Before you watch and say, ‘I could have caught that horse,’ try reacting in time and getting into position to position the horse to get it to that spot.)
“The outriders did a phenomenal job,” Gargan said afterward. “The outriders here are the unsung heroes at these racetracks… .They’re the police of the backside. I tell you, it was impressive how he could stop that horse as fast as he stopped him.” Shot Thursday, April 18

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Saturday April 13

Lexington: Hear from trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux after they team to win the last Kentucky Derby points race with Godolphin’s Encino, who now ranks No. 21 in points – giving him a good chance to make the field. We also speak with Mike Maker, trainer of The Wine Steward, who in his first start.

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Monday, April 8

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott on Wood Memorial winner Resilience. He also talks about winning the Derby with Country House, who crossed the line second in the 2019 Kentucky Derby but inherited the victory upon the disqualification of Maximum Security for interfering with other horses.
Bill Mott on champion Just F Y I’s second in Friday’s Central Bank Ashland Stakes in her first start of the year after being scratched from Gulfstream Park’s Davona Dale when she spiked a temperature on race day.
Whit Beckman, who has his first Kentucky Derby horse since his first full season of training in 2022, talks about Louisiana Derby runner-up Honor Marie, last fall’s Kentucky Jockey Club winner at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Sunday, April 7

Trainer Danny Gargan on Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch’s fourth place finish in Keeneland’s Grade 1, $1 million Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and Society Man’s second at 106-1 odds in Aqueduct’s Grade 2 Wood Memorial to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Keith Mason, part owner of Dornoch and Society Man through the West Paces Racing syndicate he started with Larry Connolly.
The West Paces Racing partnership, among the owners of ToyotaBlue Grass fourth- place finisher Dornoch, started their day at Keeneland watching another one of their horses, Society Man, run in New York’s Wood Memorial. His finish at 106-1 odds puts him in the Kentucky Derby with his stablemate. Just imagine if Society Man had WON the Wood. (He finished second behind Resilience, but earned 50 points to ensure a spot in the Derby.)

Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Saturday, April 6

From earlier in the day: interview with former MLB star Jayson Werth, a partner in Dornoch, who finished fourth in the Blue Grass.

Derek Simon’s Kentucky Derby Betting Guide for Derby 150

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UK Auction House Targeting Rich Millennials for Racehorse Ownership

Owning a racehorse is the latest way for rich millennials to brag

Why Show Betting is the Ideal Horse Racing Bet for New FansHenry Beeby, the chief executive of the thoroughbred racehorse auctioneers Goffs, said that his employer, which dates back to 1866, is targeting millennials because “they’ve got the money”, and they are about to become even wealthier as “the great wealth transfer” flows to children of an older generation of super-rich people who are expected to pass on a total of $70tn over the next two decades.

“There’s nothing quite like the thrill of ownership,” Beeby said. “There’s nothing like seeing your horse and your jockey in your colours on the track, and – my word – if it happens to win and you can share that joy with your friends.

For example, Cameron Sword, a 22-year-old business student, invested £3,700 in a runner named Corach Rambler as part of a seven-strong syndicate in 2020. The 10-year-old Irish-bred thoroughbred won last year’s Grand National, and was the favorite to coming into this year’s race [he unseated the rider and lost]

For the full article from the Guardian on racehorse ownership

Keeneland Contest Results for Weekend of April 12-13

Keeneland requests dates for five-day Summer Meet, including Blue Grass Stakes, in JulyA huge weekend for contest players at Keeneland and on various ADW’s kicked off Friday, April 12 with 200 entries in the on-track only Spring Challenge.  Matt Gumm of Glasgow, KY finished first with a bankroll of $4823 from an initial $250, taking home a Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge berth and first place prize of $3200. Howard Kravets of Vernon Hills, IL finished 2nd with $4269, beginning a memorable weekend for the renowned podcast host.  Gregory Lewis of Columbus, OH finished 3rd, kicking off a great weekend of his own, and Peter Rogers of Summit, NJ finished 4th and 5th.  Kravets, Lewis and Rogers secured National Horseplayers Championships berths and prize money.

On Saturday, a field of 282 players contested the Grade One Gamble, a $3500 contest widely considered as one of the most prestigious events in the country.  Darren Schweiger of New York, NY crushed a $4000 exacta in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes on his way to a final bankroll of $42,360.  Darren takes home $68,000 in prize money, a BCBC berth and an NHC berth.  2nd place finisher Clay Sanders of Memphis, TN cashed a $6500 win bet on winner Royal Majesty in the finale to attain a bankroll of $27,365.  That total was good for $34,000 in prize money, a BCBC berth and an NHC berth.

In all, 6 players punched their tickets to the NHC and BCBC; and another 4 players earned an NHC berth.  Those players include the aforementioned Gregory Lewis, who finished 3rd with a total bankroll of $23,494 and won a BCBC and 2 NHC’s this weekend; and Howard Kravets, who finished 7th with a total of $20,796, and double-qualified for the NHC this weekend.

The final standings for the Keeneland 2024 spring contest are available.

Following are the top ten finishers with prize money; top six received BCBC and NHC; 7th through 10th received NHC berths.

  1. Darren Schweiger $68,000
  2. Clay Sanders $34,000
  3. Gregory Lewis $18,000
  4. Cory Shorr $  9,000
  5. Rich Pawlowski $  6,800
  6. Dan Hartmann $  3,600
  7. Howard Kravets $  3,600
  8. Drew Keaton $  3,600
  9. Chuck Grubbs $  3,600
  10. John Fisher $  3,600

Resilience Earns Spot in G1 Kentucky Derby with Wood Memorial Win

by Keith McCalmont for NYRA.com

Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman’s Resilience, under perfect handling by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, punched his ticket for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby with a prominent score in Saturday’s Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino, at Aqueduct Racetrack.

“His mother won going a mile and an eighth and he’s getting better,” Gargan added. “So, I’m excited to have two for the Derby, both by Good Magic.”

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Resilience, who added blinkers following a fourth-place finish last out in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, picked up the maximum allotment of 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points available to the top-five finishers in the nine-furlong test for sophomores.

Mott credited his local assistant, Leana Willaford, along with a heady ride by Velazquez, for the improved performance.

“He ran very well. Leana did a great job with him. It was a similar trip to what we were hoping for. The blinkers didn’t hurt, did they,” said Mott, who won the 2019 Wood Memorial with Tacitus.

Bred in Kentucky by Pam and Martin Wygod, the regally-bred Into Mischief colt has a strong turf pedigree out of the winning Smart Strike mare Meadowsweet, who is a half-sister to the Grade 1 and multiple graded stakes-winning Storm Cat progeny Courageous Cat and After Market – all three are out of the multiple Grade 1-winning Rahy mare Tranquility Lake. Jalil, a Group 2-winner on dirt, is also by Storm Cat and out of Tranquility Lake.

Emily Bushnell, daughter of Marty and Pam Wygod, was full of praise for the entire team.

“We’re just so excited. He showed up, and Bill has done such an amazing job with him. Johnny rode him perfectly, and we’re just so happy,” Bushnell said. “I feel so lucky to be part of this incredible horse. He has brought my family’s breeding program full circle. My father’s dedication and love for the thoroughbred industry has spanned multiple years and Resilience is the product of a broodmare line he has nurtured and it is so exciting to see him succeed at this level.”

Resilience broke alertly from the inside post and saved ground into the first turn as the Eric Cancel-piloted longshot Evening News marked the opening quarter-mile in 23.45 seconds over the fast main track with 80-1 shot Lonesome Boy in third under Adam Bowman.

Evening News maintained his lead over Lonesome Boy down the backstretch as Velazquez angled Resilience to the outside in third position with Grade 3 Gotham-winner Deterministic saving ground in fourth under Joel Rosario after a half-mile in 47.49. Evening News showed the way through three-quarters in 1:12.31 and was enveloped by a swarm of rivals through the final turn as Resilience vaulted to the lead with Society Man looming one to watch under Luis Rivera, Jr.

Resilience stayed on strong down the lane as Society Man chased and closers Protective and Grade 3 Withers-winner Uncle Heavy, who was off a step slow, began to make up ground. But there was no reeling in a runaway Resilience, who bested Society Man by 2 1/4-lengths at the wire in a final time of 1:50.28. It was a further 1 1/2-lengths back to Protective in third with Lonesome Boy and Uncle Heavy claiming the remaining Kentucky Derby points. Elysian Meadows, Tuscan Sky, Deterministic, Evening News, Merit and Gettysburg Address rounded out the order of finish. El Grande O was scratched prior to the start.

The Dexter Haddock-ridden Deposition fell when squeezed while trying to make a move between Uncle Heavy and Protective in mid-stretch and unseated his rider. Dr. Sarah Hinchliffe, NYRA’s Veterinary Department Director, reported that Deposition stood up under his own power and walked onto the equine ambulance and was transported to the Cornell Ruffian Equine Specialists clinic for further evaluation. Haddock was transported to local hospital for further evaluation.

Jockey John Velazquez, Jr. Discusses the Win

Velazquez picked up his fifth Wood Memorial win following past success with Eskendereya [2010], Verrazano [2013], Outwork [2016] and Vino Rosso [2018]. The veteran rider, who won the Grade 1 Florida Derby last weekend with Fierceness, said Resilience improved once he found clear racing room.

“We broke really well, which was what we wanted to do. He got a little bit aggressive, more than I wanted to in the first part. Then I put him out and he kind of relaxed better on the outside of horses,” Velazquez said. “The reason we put blinkers on is because he’s kind of hesitant in passing the horses. So, I kind of engaged him a little bit early to see if he’d pass horses and he passed them. Then I was like ‘Oh man I might’ve broken a little too soon.’ Then he just kept me busy down the lane.”

Velazquez, who guided Resilience to a fourth-out maiden score on New Year’s Day at Gulfstream Park along with his last out Risen Star effort on February 17, said the addition of blinkers was key.

“Very nice horse,” Velazquez said. “The second time I rode him, he kind of got shy away from the horses coming out and didn’t want to pass, then all of a sudden everybody passed him at the sixteenth pole. Then I said, ‘maybe blinkers will keep him smart and focused and running’ and it did today, so this is where to do it.”

Resilience banked $400,000 in victory to improve his record to 6-2-1-1 for total purse earnings of $494,630. He returned $11 for a $2 win ticket.

An emotional Rivera, Jr. was full of praise for the Danny Gargan-trained runner-up Society Man, who he guided to a fourth-out maiden win last month at the Big A.

“It means a lot. I don’t have words to explain this. We’re going on the road to the Kentucky Derby and it’s awesome,” Rivera, Jr. said. “I don’t even know how to explain it. He ran beautiful. I didn’t expect him to be that close, but the pace was a little bit easy so I got to be closer and I didn’t expect to be there. He put me in a perfect spot the whole race and whenever I asked him to go, he exploded. The horse that won was a better horse, but still, my horse showed a lot.”

Gargan sent out Dornoch, a full-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby-winner Mage, to a fourth-place finish in Saturday’s Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland. The veteran conditioner said he was overwhelmed by the effort from Society Man, a Good Magic chestnut out of the stakes-placed Colonel John mare You Cheated.

“What a race he ran. I was super proud of him, and I thought for a minute he was going to get there,” Gargan said. “He’s learning and getting better, and obviously we’re going to look at the Derby with him. 50 [points] gets you in usually. We couldn’t be more excited.

Live racing resumes  with a first post at 1:20 p.m. Eastern.

America’s Day at the Races will present daily coverage and analysis of the spring meet at Aqueduct Racetrack on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/tv-schedule.

Hong Kong Horse Racing Selections – Wed., April 10

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS

Hong Kong Horse Racing Selections

(Wednesday, April 10, 2024)

Race 1: #11 Green Laser, #4 Happy Hero, #3 Colourful Baron, #9 Diamond Winner
Race 2:
#5 E Universe, #1 Happy Golf, #2 Street Conqueror, #8 Super Eagle
Race 3:
#2 Mr Ascendency, #3 Moments In Time, #5 Galaxy Witness, #8 Outgate
Race 4:
#1 Copartner Prance, #3 Sky Song, #10 Tattenham, #12 My Intelligent
Race 5:
#5 Devas Twelve, #8 Sturdy Ruby, #10 Mr Aladdin, #9 Sure Joyful
Race 6:
#6 Winning Heart, #8 Crystal Powerful, #1 Telecom Speed, #4 Great Achiever
Race 7:
#2 Capital Legend, #4 Gallant Valour, #8 Chater Gold, #1 D Star
Race 8:
#5 Show Respect, #2 Winning Dragon, #1 Hameron, #7 Lovero
Race 9:
#2 Colourful Emperor, #11 Nebraskan, #9 Sweet Briar, #8 Sports Legend

Race 1: Flamingo Flower Handicap (3.40am PDT, 6.40am EDT)

#11 Green Laser slots in light and does so off a very dangerous mark. He closed off nicely last start and any further improvement from that effort holds him in good stead. One to beat under an in-form Keith Yeung. #4 Happy Hero can turn his form around. He’s better than his recent struggles suggest and the inside gate is favourable. #3 Colourful Baron has the gate to offset, although over this trip he has enough time to do so. #9 Diamond Winner has the closing speed to make his presence felt.

Race 2: Freesia Handicap (3rd Section) (4.10am PDT, 7.10am EDT)

#5 E Universe steps out off a dangerous mark. He’s led and won before, so chances are he tries the same again here with Lyle Hewitson going up from gate five. One to catch. #1 Happy Golf scored a win full of merit two starts ago and he’s remained in super condition. Hugh Bowman’s engaged and he’ll get his shot. #2 Street Conqueror has the wide gate to overcome but is open to improvement. Zac Purton’s booking bodes well for this week’s contest. #8 Super Eagle is next in line.

Hong Kong Happy Valley fireworksRace 3: Geranium Handicap (4.40am PDT, 7.40am EDT)

#2 Mr Ascendency is seeking a hat-trick of wins. He’s versatile, has the class and draws favourably as he looks to maintain his winning run. He’s the one they all must beat. #3 Moments In Time got on the board last start. He gets the services of Zac Purton here and chances are he rolls forward once more. #5 Galaxy Witness continues to race well without winning. There are no reasons to suggest he won’t do so again. #8 Outgate looks ready to be tested at this level. He gets his chance with no weight allotted.

Race 4: Freesia Handicap (1st Section) (5.10am PDT, 8.10am EDT)

#1 Copartner Prance broke through in fine style last start. Expecting he continues his advance here, especially as he remains in the same grade after that win with Zac Purton engaged. #3 Sky Song did well to grab third on debut in Hong Kong. He goes about his racing well and can take another forward step this week. #10 Tattenham has the wide gate to overcome, however, he does have the ability to take out a race like this one. #12 My Intelligent is next in line. He slots in light and has claims.

Race 5: The Lusitano Challenge Cup Handicap (1st Section) (5.40am PDT, 8.40am EDT)

#5 Devas Twelve was a tidy winner two runs back. He’s still improving and this race shapes as ideal for him, especially from gate four with Zac Purton up. #8 Sturdy Ruby has raced well all campaign without winning. He’s in the right vein of form to contend strongly this week. #10 Mr Aladdin has been knocking on the door for some time now. He has a suitable gate and a positive racing pattern, both of which will aid him. #9 Sure Joyful knows what it’s about. Huge threat.

Race 6: Freesia Handicap (2nd Section) (6.10am PDT, 9.10am EDT)

#6 Winning Heart is seeking back-to-back wins. He was impressive last start and remains in the same grade following that effort. He’s the one to beat here. #8 Crystal Powerful is a two-time winner this term. He can return to form from a suitable draw. #1 Telecom Speed is suited in this grade and pairs favourably once more with Hugh Bowman, who steered him to victory three starts ago. He’s capable of overcoming the hefty impost. #4 Great Achiever is better than his form suggests. He’s the value in this one.

Race 7: Lavender Handicap (2nd Section) (6.45am PDT, 9.45am EDT)

#2 Capital Legend is racing well and has improved in Class 4. He narrowly missed last start and a replication of that run should see him take beating. Hugh Bowman retains the ride, which is a huge positive. #4 Gallant Valour has the draw and he should be able to get the best run. Zac Purton sticks aboard and he’s the main danger. #8 Chater Gold has actually been racing well and he’s worth a throw at the stumps. #1 D Star has the apprentice up and is suited in this grade. Next best.

Race 8: Kalanchoe Handicap (7.15am PDT, 10.15am EDT)

#5 Show Respect is chasing a hat-trick of wins. He’s in superb form and his ascent can continue here, especially from gate two and in Class 3 again. #2 Winning Dragon is nothing short of consistent and he continues to show up each and every start. He has an affinity with this course and will be making a big impact this week. #1 Hameron turned his form around last start. He’s progressive and has a bit of improvement still to come. #7 Lovero is honest and just has the wide draw to overcome.

Race 9: Oncidium Handicap (7.50am PDT, 10.50am EDT)

#2 Colourful Emperor goes about his racing the right way. He’ll fly forward to lead this group and from there take plenty of catching, just as he has done in his most recent two starts which returned wins. #11 Nebraskan makes his debut. He’s looked smart in his trials and his two wins in Australia were sound. He is well placed to make his presence felt first-up. #9 Sweet Briar is nothing short of consistent and he deserves a reward for all of his efforts. #8 Sports Legend is next in line. He won well last time out.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting on Horse Races

Horse racing is an exciting activity for many, but getting into it without a clear understanding and strategy can lead to unnecessary losses. Here, we’re breaking down the common pitfalls in horse race betting and how you can sidestep them.

Not Understanding the Odds and Probabilities

The foundation of making informed bets lies in understanding odds and probabilities. Studies, like the one by Mukhtar M. Ali in 1977 and further research by Richard H. Thaler and William T. Ziemba in 1988, have highlighted a trend where bettors tend to overvalue longshots and undervalue favorites. This “favorite-longshot bias” leads to suboptimal betting decisions with lower expected returns. Before placing your bets, take a moment to understand how odds reflect probabilities and the expected outcomes of races.

Failing to Analyze Track Conditions

Track conditions play an important role in the outcome of horse races. Marshall Gramm’s 2002 study underscores this point, showing that weather and track surface conditions influence race results. Before betting, always check the weather forecast and understand how different track surfaces can affect the horses’ performance. Ignoring these factors can lead to bets that are less likely to pay off.

Path to Profitability: Off to the racesOverlooking Jockeys’ and Horses’ Performance Records

A jockey’s skill and a horse’s performance history are critical in predicting race outcomes. The British Horseracing Authority’s report points out the influential impact top jockeys have on win rates. Similarly, John M. Gandar’s 2001 research indicates that bettors often overlook the importance of a horse’s past performance. Always review the track records of both the jockeys and horses before placing your bets.

Chasing Losses and Poor Bankroll Management

One of the quickest ways to deplete your betting fund is by chasing losses. Studies by Kelly Busche and W. David Walls in 2000, along with research by Richard H. Thaler and Eric J. Johnson in 1990, show that poor decision-making and the gambler’s fallacy are prevalent among bettors. Managing your bankroll wisely and knowing when to cut your losses are key to staying in the game longer.

Relying Too Heavily on Tips and Hearsay

While tips from experts can be valuable, overrelying on them can lead to making uninformed decisions. Leighton Vaughan Williams and David Paton’s 1997 study found that bettors tend to overreact to publicly available information. It’s essential to use tips as part of a broader analysis rather than the sole basis for your betting decisions.

Profit Risk Evaluation in Horse RacingFailing to Diversify Bets and Manage Risk

Effective risk management involves diversifying your bets. Donald B. Hausch’s 1981 research suggests that spreading your bets across different outcomes can exploit market inefficiencies and lead to positive returns. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket; spread your bets to manage risk better.

Taking Advantage of Betting Promotions

One way to maximize your betting strategy is by leveraging promotions and bonuses. Using a promo code for DraftKings, for example, can offer additional value, allowing you to make more informed bets with less risk. Remember, it’s not just about the bets you place but also about how you can use available resources to your advantage.

Points to Keep in Mind

  • Make sure to understand the odds and probabilities before placing your bets.
  • Analyze the track conditions and weather forecast to make informed decisions.
  • Review the performance records of both jockeys and horses before placing your bets.
  • Manage your bankroll wisely and cut your losses when necessary.
  • Use tips as part of a broader analysis rather than the sole basis for your betting decisions.
  • Diversify your bets to manage risk better.
  • Take advantage of betting promotions to maximize your betting strategy.

Conclusion

Betting on horse races can be rewarding if done with the right knowledge and strategies. By avoiding these common mistakes and making informed decisions, you can increase your chances of success. Remember, betting should be enjoyable, and with careful planning and discipline, it can also be profitable.