KY Derby Updates: Practical Move scratched from the Derby. All Saffie Joseph, Jr. horses scratched for the weekend, including Lord Miles in the Ky Derby.
Order the full report of the 149th Kentucky Derby with Nilsen’s professional selections and expert analysis for the big race.
There are a lot of pretenders out there. Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing KY Derby card. Nilsen’s goal has always been to provide an affordable sheet for any racing fan on one of the biggest racing days of the year.
18x NHC Qualifier & AGOS founder Rich Nilsen offers his KY Derby Analysis with top picks, spot plays & wagering strategies
- 3 Spot Plays w/wagers
- Full-card selections for all 14 races
- Pace forecast for every race on Saturday
- Expert Commentary on the top KY Derby contenders
As always, KY Derby Day is a tremendous betting card, one of the best of year. This is the Expert Kentucky Derby Analysis you need on the big race day!
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Nilsen’s KY Derby Analysis w/expert wagering strategies – click the button below to download instantly to any device:
Derby 149 Analysis with Wagering Strategies & Best Bet Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen
Nilsen Crushes 2022 KY Oaks (bonus play) with 4-1 overlay SECRET OATH, the exacta and the trifecta! Here was his write-up:
KENTUCKY OAKS – FRIDAY, MAY 6, 2022
Churchill Downs, race 11, post time 5:51 ET
Expected Pace: Fast pace is likely in this grueling 9 furlong classic. Echo Zulu and Yuugiri will both flash good early foot and ensure honest fractions. Several other runners will be in close pursuit, including the morning line favorite Nest.
Top Selection: # 1 SECRET OATH (6/1) – will get a favorable, ground-saving trip from the rail post and also figures to get first jump on the closers in this large field for the Kentucky Oaks. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee suffered a brutal trip last time out as one of the main contenders in the Arkansas Derby, but prior to that, she was dominating her own sex. She’ll appreciate the return to this spot with new rider Luis Saez aboard (a major upgrade). Look for her to get D.Wayne his first Oaks win since 1990 and add to his historic resume.
2nd Selection: # 4 Nest (5/2) enters in razor sharp form and will relish a wet track if the main course is a mess late in the day.
3rd Selection: # 2 Nostalgic (15/1) closed powerfully into a slow pace in the Gazelle S. at Aqueduct last time out and is bred to love the 9 furlong distance. Also bred to move up on wet going. 15/1 would be an absurd price on the Mott trainee with Jose Ortiz in the irons.
4th Selection: # 13 Shahama (15/1) undefeated Munnings filly has been training exceptionally well for new trainer Todd Pletcher. Drew a tough post but could still run a big one at square odds.
Wagering Strategies: Bet #1 Secret Oath to Win. Exacta box 1-2-4-13 ($24 cost for every $2 increment). Trifecta partwheel 1 with 2, 4, 7, 13 with ALL ($44 cost for $1 increments). Trifecta partwheel 1 with ALL with 2, 4, 7, 13 ($22 cost for $0.50 increments).
Rich Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournaments and an 18-time qualifier to the $3 million National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).
Testimonials About Past Analysis
“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit [Belmont Stakes 2018]!! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry… I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta. Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey!! Let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North American record for 6 panels. I had him straight and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash! Thanks Again, ” ~ Wayne M.
“Rich, thanks for your terrific analysis of the Gulfstream Park [Rainbow Six 3/31/18]. I was able to hit the Pick 6 [paid $9,018 for twenty cents!]. Anyone out there who bets horses would be well advised to download your sheet on every major race day… thanks again for a job well done.” ~ Evan C.
“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.
“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.
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