Handicapping Tip of the Day #62 – What Is Your Betting Strategy?

by Glen S.

Picking winners doesn’t always mean you are making money at the horse races.  Successful betting strategies usually does though.

Let’s begin by realizing that every horse race is a little different. Why is that?  Well, there are  underlays, overlays, big or small fields, where the race is in the race card, etc. If you are a bettor that wagers the same way and amount in each race, then you are behind the eight ball right way. STOP THAT!

Your need to adjust your wagering according to the race in question and how confident you are on the race. How and what should we do?

Here are some do’s and don’t; hopefully you are on more of the do’s.
-Don’t bet the same amount on each race, as there is no way you like each race equally.
-Do step up a little more when you have a strong play, and step down when there are to many unknowns.
-Don’t be one of those people that tell me they never bet favorites.  Favorites win around 35% of the time.
-If you avoid favorites you have already lost on over one-third of the races. Favorites have value at times, too.
-Do understand when to box horses and when to make it a wheel.
-You should figure out the percentage of your opinion on the horses in question; if equal, box, if different wheel.
-Don’t be that lazy handicapper that plays the caveman ticket in pick 4s or pick 5s.
-Oftentimes you need to play multiple tickets – that saves you money and takes advantage of your handicapping ability.

Read Handicapping Tip #16 – 4 Times to Play Against the Favorite!

Here are a few other handicapping tips to set you up for success
-Do take advantage of all the new and improved handicapping tools out there to help you pick more winners.
-Don’t be that handicapper that thinks they know it all and has bet the same way they have for the past 20 years.
-Do the research and pick your spots and make yourself some money at the races.

Comments are always welcome as I want to get better each day as well.

Next Week: Part 2 of Betting strategies, sequence bets,

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Handicapping Tip of the Day #54 – Risk Evaluation in Horse Racing

By Art Parker for agameofskill.com

In the financial world the “risk-return tradeoff” states that the potential return rises with an increase in risk. Individuals associate low levels of uncertainty with low potential returns, and high levels of uncertainty or risk with high potential returns. According to the risk-return tradeoff, invested money can render higher profits only if the investor will accept a higher possibility of losses.

What exactly is risk? Risk is the likelihood of an adverse event occurring within an identifiable sector, such as the private sector or government sector. Those who are risk analysts often work with forecasting professionals to minimize future negative unforeseen effects.

Profit Risk Evaluation in Horse RacingLet’s look at what happens when you go to the bank for a loan. The bank asks you to complete the application first. Why? This is the primary method by which the bank can analyze you as a risk. If the application looks good the bank orders a credit report, which is a critical way to evaluate you as a risk. If the bank then lends you the money it will tell you the terms, which is primarily the interest rate and other things. If your interest rate is lower than most, it is because you are a good risk.  If it is higher, then you are riskier to do business with. All of this is done so that the lender can expect a certain return with all risks balanced.

As far as horse racing goes, it would be unwise to select a horse in an upcoming race, regardless of the odds, without considering the risks, or what could happen to prevent the horse from entering the “Winner’s Circle.” Once the risks are analyzed it should be easier to grasp what the return should be.

How many times have we seen the lone speed horse miss the start, get squeezed or have early traffic trouble? If that lone speed horse can’t get the lead and no matter what the odds, all is lost. How many times have we seen the closer from hell become a victim of a slow pace or have traffic trouble and just can’t catch the speed?

It reminds me of a friend of mine, a very good player who loved to analyze pace. If he determined a horse was the lone speed in the race he would then look at those in the adjacent post positions. If those runners next to the lone speed have gate problems then the probability of the lone speed could be compromised. That’s very good risk analysis in our game.

In a recent piece I talked about finding the bargain horse, an effort that requires risk analysis in the overall race evaluation. A horse may be a bargain at 7-1, but if the amount of risk is excessive then 7-1 may not be enough.

Handicapping Tip of the Day # 53 – Try to love them before you bet them

By ART PARKER

It really makes no difference what handicapping method(s) you use to provide answers for who you wager on in horse racing. What’s important is how you use the answers you come up with. If you use a system and your system says bet number five (#5) then it is unwise to go and make the bet without examining the value of your wager.

I had a friend that utilized some sort of pace formula that, by his own admission, won about 30% of the time. I would shake my head at him when he whooped it up when his system horse would win at odds on. I could not get him to understand that you will lose money (even with a nice 30% strike rate) if winning wagers don’t return enough money.

John Templeton, the legendary mutual-fund manager who was a pioneer of international investing and later committed much of his fortune to scientific and religious causes, was known as the “Owl of Wall Street.” He earned a reputation for bargain-minded stock selection that consistently rewarded shareholders in his Templeton Funds family. Templeton’s number one rule was to look for and buy bargains. Learn from your mistakes was another one of his top rules.

If you have ever been to a brokerage firm you have probably seen the board flashing symbols and numbers across. As a stock is traded its most recent price is given. This is really no different than going to the track since the tote board gives you the information to determine what a horse is going for in terms of odds. If you put Templeton’s practice into horse playing the number one rule would be to bet on horses that are better than their odds; in other words look for a bargain.

Some of the best advice I ever received came years ago from one of the best horseplayers I ever knew. He had a great way to explain bargains at the track.  He once said, “If I think a horse should be 2-1 and he is on the board at 5-1, I really like him. If he goes up to 8-1 I really love him.”

Virtual Horse Racing: The Latest Craze For Sport In The Digital Era

As the general population become more reliant on technology than ever before, we are spending more and more time inside. The trip to the bookies to place a bet has now had to morph to an online experience. But as this has occurred, there has also been increased opportunity for games to be provided such as online slots and even the development of online horse racing.

How Does It Work?

Virtual horse racing is the latest trend for bookmakers in the UK and is the perfect way of getting people involved in betting online and keep a constant stream of revenue for bookmakers even when the live stores are closed. However, for those that are hoping for an easy win, you may be disappointed. Each race has an outcome that is generated from a random number generator. This means that the results cannot be predicted, allowing for anyone to in if you make the right bet.

This is ideal for not only those more experienced that love the thrill of a race, but there are also many options for beginners to try their hand at these virtual elements before making their way onto the live events. In addition, due to their being fewer variables, the racing cards are often much simpler than the racing cards for live events, this, therefore, makes it more appealing for people in the long term.

Horse Racing Tips: 6 picks to get your kicks on American racing tonightWhere Can You Play?

As this section of the market has begun to gain in popularity there have been more and more of the top bookmakers offering this service. With several virtual horse betting services out there including the likes of William Hill and Betfred, there are many options over the internet for you to join in on.

For those that are hoping to see some of their favorite racecourses in the virtual world, this is where it differs. Unfortunately, due to licencing, many virtual racing providers are not able to replicate existing racecourses. However, this has proved beneficial for many reasons as it has provided an invigorating experience for many as the virtual experience in a new racecourse makes for endless possibilities. This is something that is only set to continue in 2020 as we begin to see more and more bookmakers offering these virtual services as a result of increased demand.

What Could It Mean For The Future Of The Sport? 

In these unusual times, we have seen a vast number of sporting events either completely cancelled or postponed. However, this has benefited the E-Sports industry as many of us are watching or even taking part online. We have seen celebrities playing matchups on FIFA, the rise of Twitch streamers and virtual sports betting see a huge surge in popularity.

This is of course in part due to the isolation that many of us find ourselves in during this time. This has meant that more and more of us are relying on the internet and video calls as our form of daily communication and entertainment. This has, therefore, meant that event organizers and celebrities are using platforms such as Twitch and Instagram to lift the spirit of fans and have them standing out in the long term. Should isolation last longer than many are expecting, this could become the new form of communication as more of us find ways to continue with our daily lives despite having to stay inside.

How Can You Get Involved?

To get involved in virtual online sports betting it could not be easier, all you need to do is head to your local bookmakers and see if they are offering the service. Whether this is Sky Bet, William Hill or Bet365, there are numerous options for you to choose from and begin to make money from betting. All you will need is a stable internet connection and the means to place a bet and you are good to go making bets on any races that you want.

Whether you are new to this form of betting or you have used them before, there are several ways that you can use this new way of betting to provide you with entertainment during this time of live sporting event cancellations.

Become One of the 5% of Punters Who Win with Horse Racing! 

Guest Post: International Correspondent

When you start implementing Optimal Betting strategy you will quickly see improvements in your returns. This theory is relatively easy to learn, too. 

Start Winning More When You Bet on Horse Races

If you are reading this article, it is safe to assume that you are interested in finding ways to win more when you bet on horse races. Unfortunately, or fortunately, most people are not able to pick a winner when it comes to horse racing. In fact, estimates say that as many as 95% of all horse racing punters lose money at this game.

Fear not, however, as the reason that most punters are not successful when it comes to the betting NZ and the rest of the world provides is because they are not like us. This means they do not study form and horse racing, and they do not have a game plan for studying form and betting on horse racing events. In short, they are quite happy to throw their money into the pools impulsively, and simply hope they get lucky. We, on behalf of the 5% that do make money on betting in this fashion, should be grateful!

 

You Need a Sound Strategy to Manage Your Money 

It is not possible to win at horse racing betting, or in any other type of gambling, in fact, without a healthy money management plan in place. What, you may ask, constitutes a valid money management plan? In two words, Optimal Betting.

 

Optimal Betting and the Kelly Criterion 

Optimal betting takes for its base the mathematical principle called the Kelly Criterion. This recommends that you determine what percentage of your bankroll to bet based on your edge over the game.

How to Work Out Your Edge 

Your edge can be expressed as follows:

Edge = W – L/R odds

W:          the percentage of horses that win the race (your win percentage)

L:            the percentage of horses that fail to win the race

 

R odds:  the average win payout, which will be based on R1. in order to determine this, take your

average totaliser win, subtract R2, then divide by 2 once more. Bear in mind that, if you do

not know both your win percentage and your average tote win, you need to start keeping

track of these immediately.

An example of your edge can be calculated using a win percentage of 25% and an average tote of $9, i.e. $9 – $2 = $7, divided by 2 = $3.5.

Edge = 25 -75/3.5 = 3.6

In this instance, Optimal Betting theory holds that you should bet between 3% and 4% of your bankroll on each of the wagers you place.

young attractive British racegoerYou Need to Know Your Edge 

As far as Optimal Betting is concerned, it is very important that you always know your edge. This means that you have to start keeping betting records, as this will allow you to discover what your win percentage and average tote win is. Betting records will additionally help you to identify your strengths and weaknesses as a form student.

A more conservative approach to managing your money would be to bet a flat percentage of your total bankroll on each of the horse races you wish to wager on, for example 2%, or as low as 1%.

Implementing this single strategy will quickly see you starting to see more returns!

 

Is Horse Racing Dead? Kentucky Derby Day Handle Hit Record Amounts

churchill downs ky derby dayWith wagering above $200 million for the first time and a top-10 crowd on Kentucky Derby Day, Louisville-based Churchill Downs Inc. expects to add between $4-6 million in increased profitability, the company announced earlier this month.

Source: Kentucky Derby and Derby Day Handle Hit Record Highs

Handicapping Tips # 12 – The Fear of Losing

by Art Parker

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

The fear of losing

When I first went to a track Jimmy Carter was President. Back then, five bucks bought you a ton of gasoline. You can imagine how I felt when the gates opened after I bet five bucks on a horse to show. I was scared to death because that was a lot of money at that time for me. I wasn’t thinking about winning, I was thinking about losing. I was lucky. The filly got up for third by a head. I made a couple of bucks and thought how easy it was. Then I proceeded to lose money the rest of the day.

When you go to the track, ask yourself,  ‘does the fear of losing weigh more heavily on your mind than the opportunity of winning?’ So many people go to the track and they are not financially prepared for what may become a bad day. An old saying around the track is that, “You can eat your betting money but you should never bet your eating money.” Remember to only wager what you can afford to lose. If you do then you are well on your way to eliminating the fear of losing. One makes better bets and is a better player when thoughts of opportunity outweigh thoughts of losing.

Wagering 101: Understanding Win, Place & Show

Educational video put out by Churchill Downs.  Basic understanding of the ‘straight’ wagers – win, place, show.

MLB: Federal Gambling Standard ‘A Pretty Good Idea’

Baseball and bat_promo_smaller We now have two sports commissioners voicing support for a federal framework for sports gambling. At this weekend’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, Major League Baseball (MLB) Commissioner Rob Manfred gave some very qualified support for an idea that was once regarded as a third rail for professional sports leagues.
“I give Adam Silver a…

How to Play Rolling Pick-3s Wagers

How to invest in horse racing

How to invest in horse racing. Learn at agameofskill.com

by Glen S. for Agameofskill.com

Many of the bigger tracks have rolling pick 3s, in which horseplayers are asked to select the winners of three consecutive races. I think this opportunity is a huge advantage to the player if the pick 3s are played in a certain way (which we discuss below).

For starters, the research has been done on rolling pick 3s and the payouts are usually higher than a win parlay of the horses that win each sequence. Also, the pick 3 is a small enough sequence that you can play a strong ticket and not spend that much in order to hit it.

The bigger payouts are obviously when longshots come in, but you do not need to hit back to back 10-1 shots and to get “paid.” Get one price horse in there  and you will be rewarded.

Now it is important to understand you can’t go overboard and put all your budget in one basket when playing these pick 3s. I also think if it is costing you over $48 to play a pick 3 partwheel, you probably shouldn’t be playing it because you really do not have a good feel in the sequence.

Here are a  few key rules I apply when I am playing rolling pick 3s to keep the cost down.  I find it important to have at least one key in the sequence I like a lot. When I start the pick 3 sequence and roll them, I only start when I either have a key or two horses in the first leg. If my key is in the last leg, and the first two legs I need bunches to “save alive,” I will only play one pick 3 until my key is in the first leg. If the total cost of a ticket is between $8 – $12 and I have no key, then I will also play the ticket.

The best way to explain is by an example.  Consider the following hypothetical sequence:

Race#2  Feel only two horses can win.
Race#3  Like a horse at 5-1, can take a chance and key him, but could use others.
Race#4  Vulnerable favorite that should get beat, like as many as four horses, but there are unknowns to deal with.
Race#5 Solid key, expected favorite, ml 2-1, but will go off as low as 4-5.
Race#6 Mid claimer, three or four contenders to use.

Here is how I would play the races 2,3,4

Race#2 start:  1,2/1/all (8 horses), and   1,2,/1,2,3/1,2,3,4

Rae#3 start:  if 1,2 wins then I would play  1,2,3/all(8)/1  and 1,2,3,4,5/1,2,3,4/1.  If 1,2 loses in race 2, then I would play 1/all(8)/1

Race#4 start:  if alive from races 2 and 3 then would play 1,2,3,4/1/1,2,3,4; if knocked out, then I would play all/1/1,2,3

You will see that I adjust my tickets accordingly. I am either expanding a few longshots if I have a few good pick 3 tickets going, so if I lose a final leg, I am “covering” a little (having a longshot that is coming in that I will now have).

In all cases I need to hit one of my keys somewhere to win. Playing the above tickets keeps the ticket size down but allows you many options to hit a nice ticket or hit a few tickets in a row. Either way you are making some money.

Feel free to comment or question on why I play it this way, and even tell me that this is the wrong way to play. I am always open to discuss new ways to play or learn something new.