Do This Now for This Year’s Breeders’ Cup

The Breeders' Cup horse racingby Glen S.

The Breeders Cup is the best event in horse racing for the year round handicapper to hit the big one. The two days are in the advantage of the horse players that knows the game. However, if you are like all the other handicappers and do not prepare in advance, then there is simply no advantage for you come next weekend. So if you do not want to be like the others or the ones that just play the races a few times a year, keep reading.

How can I start to prepare so early, you ask? There are list of the main contenders throughout the various websites and many sites, including the Daily Racing Form (DRF) that have the expected entries. Print them off and start watching REPLAYS and more replays. The more you watch now, the less time you need later. Betptc.com has one of the best replay functions on the website, so why not take full advantage of it.

What to look for in a replay and what to take notes on:
-Was the horse compromised in the race, troubled trip, wide, no pace to run at, caught in a duel?

-Do not forget to make notes that might make the horse look better, lone speed, big pace to run at, perfect trip, etc.

When watching the horse racing replays, you do not need to know who the horse will be running against in the future.  It just gives you more information on the horse that many won’t take the time to see. Also if the horse is running against other horses in the upcoming race you will oftentimes see who is better based on the replay. Sometimes who beats who doesn’t tell the whole story, this is when you can hit that home run.

Monday Oct 21st is when the Breeders’ Cup pre-entries close and I would expect by Wednesday Oct 23rd you will be able to get a good idea of who is in. Now you can start figuring out the potential of each horse. I would avoid figuring out race shape but decide if the horse is a need-the-lead horse or a closer that needs pace to run at.

Monday Oct. 28th is when the post position draw is; I would expect by that evening you will be able to find what each race would look at. NOW start to figure out race shape.

Why prep now? The obvious reason, as mentioned, is get ahead of the competition and avoid so much work later. But even more importantly, avoid getting swayed but the media and all the hype. Let you be the judge first as to how talented you think the horse is and then listen to the others.

Part II preparing for the Breeders: Good info, bad info and how to use that to your advantage

Next post after the pre entries are up.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Aug. 26

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes for AGameofskill.com visitors

August 26th Edition

DEL MAR

WARREN’S SHOWTIME (Race 1 @DMR, August 21, 2019) How much was the best was this favorite in the opening race?  The turf runner was blocked badly on the far turn until the top of the stretch, but when an opening finally occurred, the 2yo daughter of Clubhouse Ride exploded with a strong run to draw off.   Has a future on the lawn for trainer Craig Lewis.

SARATOGA

SOMBEYAY (Race 7 @SAR, Aug. 2, 2019) – Pletcher runner relished the switch to firm turf (off yielding in prior) and the stretch out to one mile.  3yo ran huge, looking like a winner in deep stretch before getting nailed by a determined Casa Creed.  This guy should be super tough in 6f to 8f turf stakes on firm ground.

HAPPEN (Race 9 @SAR, Aug. 2, 2019) – Euro import  for O’Brien had no chance facing the likes of Concrete Rose when allowed a ridiculously slow pace up front.  War Front filly showed class overseas and deserves another look in a reasonable spot.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – July 22

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes for Agameofskill.com visitors

SARATOGA

MORNING GOLD (Race 1 @SAR, July 14, 2019) – Ken McPeek firster came in off a solid work pattern and ran a big race when 2nd to the Pletcher-trained favorite.  5 lengths clear of the show horse in a rock solid debut.

BLAME THE CAKE (Race 4 @SAR, July 14, 2019) – Firster for Ian Wilkes (7% win, 19% itm) was a $190,000 Ocala purchase.  Made a big run to take the lead and looked like a winner in deep stretch when he got run down by a sharp Jason Servis firster that was given a brilliant ride by Irad Ortiz.

CATCH A BID (Race 8 @SAR, July 14, 2019) – This is a rising star for Chad Brown.  Her career debut was awesome and then she ran a big 2nd here to a Grade-3 placed runner in Varenka, while well clear of the show horse.   Could be a very solid multi-race key next time she runs.

WINIFRED J (Race 2 @SAR, July 13, 2019) – Ed Barker filly likely needed race in her first start since early February. This was a tough spot but she ran a good third.  She’s a half to one winner, who was a grass horse.  Look for this Blame filly back on the turf, sprinting or on the stretch-out.

DECORATED INVADER (Race 6 @SAR, July 13, 2019) – Looked sharp when finishing 2nd in debut for West Point and partners.  Clement runner is a half to two turf winners and he was up against it facing a very slow pace in this race.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

BASIN (race 1 @CD, June 14, 2019) – This talented 2yo from the Steve Asmussen barn ran a strong 2nd in a key race field, losing by a nose to G3 Sanford winner By Your Side.   Was 3-4 wide throughout but finished strong.

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AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – June 15

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes for Agameofskill.com visitors

BELMONT PARK

DOUBLE ORB (Race 1 @BEL, June 7).  This first time starter from the Steve Asmussen barn had no difficulty with the tough 7 furlong distance as he crushed a field of talented prospects.  Big future for the runner from the Maktoum barn.

SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (Race 5 @BEL, June 7).   Last year’s G1 Test winner is back on her game.  She spotted weight to a good field that included Breeders’ Cup runner-up Chalon, and she destroyed them in ultra impressive fashion.  A Grade 1 stakes should be on the agenda in the near future.

BIG BELLA BROWN (Race 7 @BEL, June 1).  This son of Big Brown exited a key race but faced a difficult fast pace scenario.  Despite that the Mike Maker trainee ran a very game race to finish second to the logical closer.   Excels on wet tracks.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK 

RED CARATS (Race 2 @GP, June 1).  Sammy Camacho, who is a good jockey, absolutely butchered the ride on the most likely winner in this field.  Had the maiden in all sorts of traffic issues and never had a chance to fully run his best race.  Can rebound at the cheap $10,000 maiden claiming level.

 

MONMOUTH PARK

STANDARD DEVIATION (Race 9 at MTH, June 1).  Son of Curlin looked like a new horse on the switch to the turf.  A half to one grass winner, the 3yo easily handled a field of proven turf runners.  Awad Stakes winner Empire Of War was a no-threat 2nd to the Chad Brown trainee that went off a juicy price.

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AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – June 5

track announcer with binocularsFREE AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes from recent horse races, compliments of Agameofskill.com

PIMLICO

COMPLETED PASS (Race 12 @PIM, May 17, 2019).  The Robert Bone-owned runner has a bright, bright future.  The son of Pass Rush exited wickedly fast pace at Laurel and came back and won on the Black Eyed Susan’s card.  This 5yo could develop into one of the best turf sprinters in the land.

PLEASE FLATTER ME (Race 8 @PIM, May 17, 2019) – 3yo Munnings filly had no chance against the likes of Covfefe, who broke the track record in 1.07.70.  Look for this Mark Reid back in against softer company.  Can  sprint or route up to one mile.

CREATIVE ARTIST (Race 1 @PIM, May 18, 2019) – broke from tough outside post in turf debut, off the 6+ month layoff (trainer only 7%).  This was a first time gelding and he finished strong to be a close third in a competitive field. Can move forward back on turf.

HIP HOP (Race 4 @PIM, May 18, 2019) – 4yo Drosselmeyer filly loves the grass and ran big again on the Preakness undercard.   What won’t show in the Past Performance is that she spotted 16lbs to the winning 3yo.  I don’t care how far the race is; that’s significant.  Next start for this runner is her third of the year.

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AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – 4/16/19

Complimentary horses to watch for AGOS visitors

Keeneland

SUENO – (4/31/19, Race 9 at KEE, Lexington Stakes) – continues to get less-than-ideal rides from Corey Lanerie. He had this colt in traffic on the backstretch and then went very wide turning for home in the Lexington Stakes. Finished willingly in a sneaky good 3rd place effort. Keith Desormeaux charge may benefit from a new rider.

Tampa Bay Downs

JOSIE’S RIDDLE (4/12/19, Race 7 at TAM) – 4yo Ontario-bred gelding was making first start off the claim for John Rigattieri and handled the rise in class without any trouble.  Honest runner is in razor sharp form for new outfit.  Handles dirt, turf or all-weather.

ZACAPA RUN (4/12/19, Race 8 at TAM) – This 3yo loves the grass and has picked up a major check in all four attempts.  Gray gelding finished well for second but had no chance behind the lone speed winner ridden by Antonio Gallardo.  Very tough at the 2-life claiming level on the grass.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Aug. 9, 2018

Horses to watch for AGOS visitors.  Put these runners in your Stable Alert service.

ELLIS PARK

BORDINI (Race 7 @ELP, 8/5/18) – live runner from the Amoss barn raced inside of traffic and then got shuffled back to last behind not one but two walls of horses.  Swept to the far outside, which is not where you want to be at Ellis, and unleash a good late run for a sneaky good effort.

SARATOGA

OUR GIRL ABBY (Race 5 @SAR, 7/21/18) – made a wide move turning for home to engage the gate-to-wire winner in deep stretch. Exchanged bumps with that filly and lost the bob in a solid performance.  This was her first start since March and her first for her new barn, who raised her confidently in class.

PUTTHEGLASSDOWN (Race 5 @SAR, 7/21/18) – broke from the rail in her debut at the Spa for Englehart.   Settled in 8th before making a nice run to get up for the place spot behind the winning Asmussen favorite.  The PA-bred daughter of Violence is out of a stakes winning mare.

PICTURE DAY (Race 3 @SAR, 7/26/18) – Linda Rice runner loves to win and she was one of the few that closed against the bias in the slop on this Thursday afternoon.  A stakes winner, this Include mare is tough in the optional claiming sprints.

TRINNI NINJA (Race 10 @SAR, 7/27/18) – Daughter of Trinniberg was one of the few to close against the bias on this day.  She is in good form and might be able to break through for low percentage connections next time out at the state-bred maiden $25,000 (or lower) level.  Demand some value.

CATORIA (Race 5 @SAR 8/1/18) – Wildcat Heir filly outran other speed in this race and took this field gate to wire, beating the heavy favorite at 23-1 for Mike Dini.  She is out of a Meadowlake mare and will be dangerous at 6 1/2 or under.

BROCKMONINOFF (Race 3 @SAR 8/1/18) – George Weaver runner was bet down on the drop in class despite his first race since last October.  Suffered some trouble in this race and came up a little short.  Barn is only 12% off  layoffs and this NY bred should move forward next time out.  Can dirt or turf.

LIGHT THE POSSE (Race 2 @SAR 8/2/18) – Betting favorite was making his second career start off a good 2nd in debut and adding Lasix.  The son of Posse ended up hurt badly by a modest pace set by the eventual gate to wire winner.  Can score at this level next time out.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – July 26, 2018

DEL MAR

OPUS WON (Race 4 at DMR, 7/18/18) – first time starter from barn that only wins 7% with debut runners also broke from a tough outside post.  Rated off the pace and when moved into the top of the stretch and the rider Flavin Prat asked her, she exploded in the final furlong, finishing willingly on her own and just missing 2nd.  Cal-bred daughter of Eddington has talent.  She’s a half to two winners including a nice stakes winner.

FINGER LAKES

SHAKESPERIAN DREAM (Race 8 at FL, 7/18/18) – this veteran mare was set to run a big race but lost all chance behind as slow a pace as you’ll ever see.  No match for the odds-on favorite who won but rallied gamely to be in a photo for 2nd after having to alter course around that rival.

LOUISIANA DOWNS

CULP’S HILL (Race 4 @LAD, 7/16/18) – gelded son of Eddington was the controlling speed on the drop to the $5,000 level and he ran a winning race, finishing 2nd to another dropper from the red hot Broberg barn.  This LA-bred four year old loves the grass, and I wouldn’t mind seeing the blinkers removed on this speedy runner.

THISTLEDOWN

I’M IN A HURRY (Race 7 at TDN, 7/18/18) – odds on favorite returning off a layoff suffered a terrible trip.  He was stuck inside of horses on the backstretch and had no where to go behind a trio of runners turning for home.  Jock decided he wouldn’t take chances going between runners and he wrapped up on him in the final 1/8th.  Should bounce back in a big way with that race under his belt and get his 18th career win.

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – June 29, 2018

Put these free horses to watch in your Stable Alert or Virtual Stable Mail

Belmont Park

TAKE CHARGE AUDREY (Race 6 @BEL, 6/15/18) – this New York bred filly was making her third lifetime start for trainer Bruce Levine and her first start going long. Into the far turn she navigated her way through traffic to sit a close fourth behind a trio of runners, while she waited for room.  Once a hole opened up on the inside, she exploded under David Cohen and drew off to a devastating 9-length score.  Could have a bright future for Levine and Glencrest Farm.

Churchill Downs

DIVISIDERO (race 6 @Cd, 6/16/18) – Churchill Downs horse for the turf course suffered a brutal trip en route to a sneaky good 4th place finish in the $200k Wise Dan Stakes.  Javier Toledo gave an amateurish ride as he had him in all sorts of trouble before finally getting clear about 100 yards from the winner.  Came flying late to just miss 2nd and 3rd.   Wins back at Churchill, where almost all his wins are, with a new rider.

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – June 8, 2018

Belmont Park horse racingBELMONT PARK

MANGO M (Race 1 @BEL, 6/7/18) – returned off a layoff and was well meant in his turf debut for trainer Shug McGaughey.  He was making a winning move on the far turn when he got boxed in and shuffled around by Whiskey Run.  Ducked to the inside and tried to win the race up the rail, but meanwhile the winner got a clear run on the outside to easily grab the victory.  Son of Tale Of The Cat wins back at this level next time out.

GULFSTREAM PARK

MASCARPONE (Race 4 @GP, 6/7/18) – jockey Jilver Chamafi was asleep at the wheel aboard this turf horse who had a lot of ‘run.’  Made his move way too late, and in the process, got the runner into some trouble turning for home that cost him all chance for the victory.  Finished a sneaky good 2nd behind the 6/5 favorite in a race he could have won.

PIMLICO

FLASH ATTACK (Race 1 @PIM, 5/19/18) – this gelded son of Harlan’s Holiday has been very consistent since moving into the barn of trainer Michael Stidham.  In the opener on Preakness Day he closed well for third against an impossible early speed bias.  Can win back on a fair track, going short or long.

STILL HAVING FUN (Race 8 @PIM, 5/19/18) – this was another one that was up against trying to rally from off the pace but he did so en route to a solid 2nd place finish behind the heavy favorite. Son of Old Fashioned is really good at 1 mile or less.

TENFOLD (Race 13 @PIM, 5/19/18) – in only his fourth career start this guy ran a very good race in the G1 Preakness Stakes.  He rebounded off a poor showing last time out at Oaklawn Park to be beaten less than one length to Justify.  Son of Curlin has a bright future for barn that is masterful at managing careers.  He could play a major factor in the Belmont Stakes.