Keeneland Trainer Book now available for 2013 Fall Meet

KEENELAND WINNING TRAINER PATTERNS

– 2013 FALL MEET EDITION – Now available

Winning Patterns on 110 Trainers!  Bonus Handicapping Articles

50 Trainers have accounted for nearly 72% of all Keeneland wins.  It’s time you know how they did it!

Keeneland Fall 2013 meet

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If you handicap the races at Keeneland, then understanding the tendencies of the trainers is paramount to success. Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns for 2013 is based on the extensive database of handicapper and author Art Parker, a regular contributor here on Agameofskill.com. It’s bigger and better than ever with no less than 110 winning trainers profiled!

In this unique trainer guide, Parker analyzes the winning patterns of the most successful horsemen that race at Keeneland. With this data right at your fingertips, you will know the winning tendencies of each and every trainer that has saddled multiple winners at Keenland over the past 7 race meets.

 

“It’s a wealth of information for horseplayers serious about attacking the Keeneland meets.” – publisher Rich Nilsen

The 2013 Fall Meet Edition of “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns” is now available from publisher All Star Press.

We’ve put trainers, Keeneland, and the past 7 meetings together (3 1/2 years) to try and have the best results possible for the upcoming fall meet, 2013. Our focus is on the trainers that do more than show up and win a race. We have detailed the individuals from the last seven meetings that were multiple winning trainers. In other words, a trainer had to collect at least two victories to be recognized.

 Winning Trainers – Last 7 Meets – Alpha Order
 Winning Trainers – Last 7 Meets – By Number of Winners
 Winning Trainers – Last 7 Meets – The Details for Each Winner

Just how good were the multiple winning trainers? Here are a few facts from 2010 – 13 that validate the importance of these successful trainers.

Keeneland held 1,063 thoroughbred races collectively in the seven meets dating back to the spring of 2010.

Trainers winning at least 2 races in these seven seasons totaled 111.

The 111 multiple winners won a total of 960 races collectively or 90.30% of all races.

Of the 111 multiple winners, 50 trainers won at least 5 races.

Those 50 trainers collected a total of 764 wins or 71.8% of all races. 

The details of all the winning trainers and their corresponding victories over the past 7 seasons at Keeneland are presented to handicappers in this book, Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns. A one-of-a-kind publication.

Only $9.97 now through PayPal. One ‘hit” will pay for this book 10x over.  Download it today to any PC or Mobile Device!

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Attention KINDLE users – the book is now available through Amazon for Kindle e-Reader, Tablet or Apps

Gaining the Edge on Trainer Handicapping

By Art Parker

A year ago March I wrote an article entitled, “What do I do best?” The idea was to encourage other horse players to determine what they did best when it came to handicapping, selecting and wagering on horses. This is not an easy task. It is difficult for many to retain objectivity while doing a self examination of one’s habits.

It is easier to examine another person than it is to examine yourself. Why not examine those involved in today’s races? In the grand scheme of things jockeys don’t mean much when it comes to handicapping, especially when one considers the impact of trainers. With that in mind let’s examine trainers and see if we can cash more tickets.

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Few folks keep serious records about horse racing because it is time consuming and boring. In today’s racing world a tremendous amount of information is available that helps the horse player to avoid keeping records. I think it is great that so much is available and believe that any help is better than no help. Still, if you really want to increase your probability of winning you need to keep up with some things that are not readily available to all parties in the game.

Many players will take a quick look at a race and note something if it stands out. You may look at your buddy at the races and say, “I see where the trainer of the number four horse wins at 16% of his first layoff horses.” That may help you support the notion that the number four horse is a good bet. And while a 16% success rate is fairly good for a trainer with his runners when they first return to battle, it doesn’t tell you if that is what he does best. Don’t get me wrong. If you get 18-1 on a horse whose trainer stats say he wins one of six races under similar circumstances, you must take a hard look. The risk-versus-reward trade off demands you look at that horse very hard.

But what I am suggesting is that knowing where trainers succeed the most also shows where they are probably placing their greatest effort when it comes to preparing a horse to run.

One category that provides plenty of mystery is debut runners. Almost all horse players that have stats or read stats see that a trainer carries a certain percentage of wins with his first time starters. But they have no idea if the trainer does better or worse with his two-year-old first time starters. Take the case of one of the many trainers I have followed for quite some time. He has recorded 432 wins in the last 5 years. He has escorted 58 debut winners into the Winner’s Circle and wins with debut runners 13% of the time. Is his win percentage as good with babies as those that are age 3 and older? Yes, in fact it is much, much better. This one trainer has notched 40 debut wins with two year olds and only 18 with those older than two in the same time period. That is very important information. What is even more important is that about 75% of his two year old winners come with the same owner.

What did we learn? This one trainer is pretty good with firsters but he strikes much more with baby runners, and the large majority of those winners are owned by the same man. Armed with this info, we can now be more selective when we play this trainer.  Now we have a clear understanding of what he does best and that makes it much easier to examine risk-return positions.

Make it a goal to keep up with a little more information. Find trainers and situations that appeal to you and stay abreast with what happens. It will be worth it, and remember, playing the horses is not a game of luck, it is a game of skill.  A little extra works pays off.

— Art Parker is the author of “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns.”  The new Fall Meet edition will be out in September and available here at Agameofskill.com.  Sign up for our no-spam newsletter to stay informed of site updates.

2012 Fall Meet Edition of “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns” now available!

Keeneland winning trainer patterns

Click here to download the book to any device

Understanding the tendencies of trainers is one vital key to success for winning horseplayers. All Star Press is pleased to announce the 3rd edition of the Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns – new for the 2012 Fall Meet. Again, this meet’s release is bigger and better than ever with great nuggets on all the winning trainers.

This valuable handicapping guide is based on the extensive database of handicapper and author Art Parker, a regular contributor to AGameofSkill.com.

In this book Parker analyzes the winning patterns of the most successful horsemen that race at Keeneland. With this guide you will know how each and every trainer prepares his runner for success. Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns  covers every Keeneland horsemen that has saddled two or more winners over the past five meets, dating back to the spring of 2010.

This is why you need to know these trainers better than they know themselves:

Keeneland held 750 thoroughbred races collectively in the Spring and Fall meetings of 2010, the Spring and Fall meetings of 2011, plus the Spring meeting of 2012.

Trainers winning at least 2 races totaled 96.

The 96 multiple winners won a total of 656 races collectively or 87.5% of all races.

Of the 96 multiple winners, 42 trainers won at least 5 races.

Those 42 trainers collected a total of 526 wins or 70.1% of all races.

The details of all 96 trainers and their corresponding victories over the past five seasons at Keeneland are presented to handicappers in this book.

With this book you can answer many questions, including:

How many works does this trainer’s winners have coming into the race?

What kind of works are they?

Where do they ship in from?

How quickly do they race back?

Were there equipment changes?

Were class changes (up or down) used?

How about surface or distance switches?

“Most importantly with Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns you will know if the horse this trainer is running today fits a pattern similar to winners in the past. This knowledge is one of the absolute best ways to get an edge over the public when playing Keeneland.” — Rich Nilsen, 10-time NHC qualifier.

Of course, you’ll also learn who rode these winners and for what stable this trainer wins for. Patterns develop and that is how the horseplayer can cash at the upcoming Keeneland meet.

“Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns” includes these bonus features:

  • Alphabetical and Numerical list of every winning trainer over the past 5 meets.
  • Special Trainer analysis by Rich Nilsen.
  • Keeneland – Turf to Synthetic surface switch
  • The Key Factor that handicappers need to know about the Polytrack surface

 

Take this book  with you to Keeneland or your local OTB/track! Download this 112-page PDF book today for only $9.97:

Order this Keeneland trainer guide today

Profiting at Keeneland is all about knowing the tendencies of the individuals that know how to win year-in and year-out at the Lexington racetrack.

 

Kindle users – download this handicapping guide to your Kindle eReader or Kindle reading app today!

Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns – 2012 Fall Meet edition is available in ALL E-BOOK FORMATS, so click here if you want a format other than PDF or Kindle.


Trainer Patterns: A review of all Keeneland Meetings back to 2010

by Art Parker, author of “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns – 2012 Fall meet edition”

It is a sensible and accepted practice to review historical data before making investments. If you ever purchased shares of a mutual fund from a securities representative, you were probably drowned with information about the great past performance of the fund, which is the best weapon the representative has to sell you on the quality of the investment. Naturally, among all of the investment warnings and small legal fine print, you are warned that past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

The same is true in Thoroughbred racing. Those of us who frequent the races know that past performance is no guarantee of future results. But just like in the financial world, we are better equipped to make good decisions about the future when we have an abundance of reliable information about the past.

Know thy Keeneland TrainersFew horse players pay attention to trainers and what they actually do. Most players try to turn their brain into computer mode as they throw themselves into the details of the running lines found in past performances. They crunch numbers and inhale speed and pace figures as if there is no tomorrow, and all of that is important. Many players worry about jockeys and for some reason view these diminutive athletes as race car drivers. Many players believe jockeys are solely responsible for the performance of their horses in races, and this logic is very, very weak. The best horse players will tell you that when it comes to the human factor in thoroughbred racing, it is the trainer that plays the most critical role.

Trainers are business people that manage employees and have fiduciary responsibilities since they are also managing the assets of thoroughbred owners. The best trainers are successful because they are excellent managers of anything to do with their business. They have to plan and execute to be successful. In addition to business talent they must know thoroughbreds and know as much about them as possible. A trainer is not only a conditioner but is part veterinarian. And when the trainer is not taking good physical care of his horses then he tries to be an equine psychologist and figure out what makes a horse tick upstairs. And, on top of all that, the trainer needs to be a good handicapper if he wants to succeed. They have to know how to place their horses in the right spots.

Being human, trainers are creatures of habit and it often shows in preparing a horse for a race. Becoming familiar with trainers and what they do to win is just as important as understanding all of the information in the running lines.

When one makes a list of the few special horse tracks in the world, Keeneland is bound to be on the list, maybe even at the top of it. The Lexington, Kentucky track is open for racing a few weeks in the spring and a few weeks in the fall. Both Keeneland meetings immediately precede the spring and fall meetings of Churchill Downs in Louisville. In addition to excellent timing, Keeneland also offers race meetings rich with quality and high purses.

Keeneland is one of the great challenges for horse players. The meetings are short and horses ship from many locations. The best way to describe playing Keeneland can be found in one word: Tough. Something else that makes Keeneland a great challenge is the quality of the horseplayers. The racing is tough to handicap and the pari-mutuel competition is tough as well. A player that wants to win needs all the help available when Keeneland is the chosen battleground.

Now, let’s put trainers, Keeneland, and the past five meetings together to try and have the best results possible for the fall meet, 2012. Our concentration will be the trainers that do more than show up and win a race. We have detailed the trainers in the last five meetings that were multiple winning trainers. In other words, a trainer had to collect at least two victories to be recognized.

How good were the multiple winning trainers? Here are a few facts

that validate the importance of these few trainers.

Keeneland held 750 thoroughbred races collectively in the Spring and Fall meetings of 2010, the Spring and Fall meetings of 2011, plus the Spring meeting of 2012.

Trainers winning at least 2 races totaled 96.

The 96 multiple winners won a total of 656 races collectively or 87.5% of all races.

Of the 96 multiple winners, 42 trainers won at least 5 races.

Those 42 trainers collected a total of 526 wins or 70.1% of all races.

The details of all 96 trainers and their corresponding victories over the past five seasons at Keeneland are presented to handicappers in my new book entitled “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns – 2012 Fall meet edition.”

First or Second Time Out? A Good Trainer Knows the Answer

 By Art Parker

 The best horse players pay attention to trainers, at least to a small degree. Some players look beyond the initial statistics and general information. Some, like me, try to keep up with a great deal of information looking for an edge.

If you sit around the table with your buddies at the track discussing the next race someone is going to say something like, “Yeah, and this guy does pretty good with his layoff horses,” or something along those lines. 

A response you may hear to that statement may sound like this. “That’s right, and he wins at a 14% rate with those types.” If you listen to the conversation you would first hear a broad general statement and then one validating it by a specific claim. But, is there more to it?

Yes.

Good trainers that excel at certain types of races make plans to win; they don’t just fill out entry slips and hope for the best.

Let’s examine one of the frequently discussed categories of trainer performance – debut runners. Unless you are equipped with a great deal of information, and you get what can be confirmed as a true overlay, these races probably deserve a pass. I must admit that the intrigue is something that makes horse racing the great game that it is and the strong desire to figure out a tough race with several firsters (career debut runners) is something to be admired. That’s right, admired. I salute anyone who will read and study hard to figure out an impossible race as opposed to the mindless man who sits and pulls the handle of a slot machine.

It is more than knowing a certain trainer scores with debut runners more often than his competition. The questions are how and when does he do it?

Trainer Reade Baker

Trainer Reade Baker

Let’s take a very good veteran trainer like Reade Baker at Woodbine. Here is some raw data on Baker, according to my unofficial stats: In the last three years at Woodbine he has notched 189 wins and 23 of those were first time starters. At the end of the 2011 Woodbine meeting, Baker, (according to BRIS) had a win rate of 10% when he sends a rookie to the gate. Better horse players are pretty much limited with that information I have just given you, but they have an advantage over others with it. But when can we feel even more confident about betting this trainer (or others) when he has a debut runner?

The first thing is to distinguish his runners by age. Of Baker’s 23 debut wins in that time frame, 16 of them were two year olds. That’s a big piece of information because the babies are not running the first couple of months of the season and, the number of two year old races doesn’t significantly increase until August or September. Baker is an outstanding trainer, but he doesn’t set the woods on fire with firsters age three and older.

Okay, now you have Baker on your mind when the two year olds start showing up at the gate. Is this all you need? Most guys will say yes, but the answer is no.

Baker’s training pattern varies little with a debut 2 year old winner. Almost always, these victories are preceded with the last several workouts (usually the last 4-5) taking place 6 to 7 days apart with the last work coming 5 to 7 days before the race day. And, you can expect a minimum of two gate works in the last 4 to 5 workouts.

Good trainers that excel at certain types of races make plans to win; they don’t just fill out entry slips and hope for the best. A trainer like Baker will have a pretty good idea when his trainee should be ready. He gets condition books well in advance and makes a plan to run. That is one reason the days of training are important; it is all part of the plan. Good trainers do this. Bad trainers do not. 

Oh, there’s a little more. Almost half of Baker’s 2 year old debut winners were owned by the Bear Stables. And, all but a pair of the Bear Stables’ debut winners wore blinkers. The utilization of blinkers on Bear Stable runners is far more prevalent than on all other Baker horses in the same category. That tells me that the Bear Stables are expecting quick results to recover their investment in livestock, and it tells me that Baker wants to make sure those runners pay attention, and they are more likely to show early speed.   

Unfortunately, most players approach second time starters with less intensity than debut runners. Wouldn’t it make sense to know a trainer’s winning move when his horse goes to the gate a second time, especially if the horse did not win his debut outing? It makes sense to me. In fact this is a category that gets ignored a great deal by players and those that provide information. There’s plenty of winning tickets to be cashed on second timers and we need to look no further than our Canadian trainer. Baker visited the winner’s circle in the last 3 years with 19 second timers. Of Baker’s 189 wins in 3 years, 42 of those came from horses in their first or second career start.

But here is the key to Baker’s second time starters…only one was a repeat winner. If you look at Baker’s second timers you want to focus on those that lost in their debut effort. The training pattern is pretty much the same with workouts spaced 6 to 7 days apart. Almost always, Baker returns to the gate with his second timer 20 to 30 days after the initial race. Baker usually keeps his runners in the same class for their second outing. If he doesn’t win the first time out, then he evaluates the performance and starts the process to win the next time.

I’ve never met or talked to trainer Reade Baker and probably never will. I can say the same for hundreds of horsemen that I follow. If you look deeper into past performances and charts, you can start to see things that 99.9% of the players never see. Yes, it takes some time and dedication. But, it is critical for a player to gain an advantage somewhere in the handicapping game.

Keeping up with trainers at your favorite tracks will help you get an advantage, plus it makes the game a lot more fun. We have the opportunity to find and develop our skills as horse players and taking advantage of that opportunity can give you an advantage…something that poor mindless fool at the slot machine will never have.

-Art Parker is the author of “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns” published by All Star Press.

Important Owner Connections to Know at Keeneland

 by handicapper Art Parker

copyright Rich Nilsen

Keeneland paddock (copyright All Star Press)

   It would be a mistake to overlook some of the connections as far as owners are concerned when it comes to Keeneland racing. Trainers do not take their entire stables with them wherever they go, unless they are very small operations. Since purses are superb at Keeneland and since the meetings are short and prestigious, many owners are going to want to be there. Trainers play many roles as previously discussed and one of those roles is politician. A trainer does not want an unhappy owner because an owner controls the inventory of soldiers a trainer has for battle. Without horses a trainer cannot make a dime. Many times an owner connection means nothing, but it is important to keep alert as a horseplayer owners can provide important clues to what is going on. Let’s take a look at some of the discoveries of the 2010 Keeneland Fall Meeting. There is no doubt you will see several, if not a majority of these in 2011.

The biggest trainer name in America is Todd Pletcher. When you look into his barn one of the first things you notice are a couple of winning owners from last year that rings bells. Dogwood Stable and Overbrook Farm are Pletcher clients and they are a couple of the very elite names in American thoroughbred racing. Pletcher won for both of those last fall.   

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott continues to be around big money race meetings and he picked up a couple of winners last fall for Juddmonte Farms, an operation that has won many awards and made tons of money racing in America and Europe. Juddmonte is owned by Prince Khalid Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, and a member of the Saudi Arabian royal family.

Wayne Catalano invaded Keeneland from Chicago and experienced much success. Catalano had multiple winners with owners Gary West and Talons Racing.

There was a trio of trainers that recorded two wins for the same owner. Tevis McCauley won a pair of races for Ron McCauley. Al Stall hit the winner’s circle twice and Columbine Stable was the winner of both. Jamie Ness won two races at Keeneland’s Fall Meeting for his client Midwest Thoroughbreds.

Ken McPeek won a couple of races for Joseph Engelhart and a couple for Magdalena Racing. McPeek even had one winner with a horse the two owned together.

The very talented Wesley Ward was co-owner of a runner that scored twice at the Keeneland Fall Meeting. His co-owner was Gatewood Bell.

The 2011 Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Graham Motion, was successful at the Keeneland Fall Meeting last year. Motion won three races for Augustin Stable, and he did so using three different riders.

Mike Maker won four races for Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey. One of the victories was a first time claim and the other was a second time claim.

Tom Proctor did a great job for his client Glen Hill Farm. One three consecutive days the trainer won a race for his owner and Garrett Gomez was aboard all three winners.

Charles Lopresti won two races for owner Morton Fink with the same horse. Lopresti also scored three times for client Four D Stable.

Musical owners: Not all owners stick with one trainer. There were several owners who enjoyed visiting the Winner’s Circle with different trainers last fall:

Green Lantern Stable had winning runners with George Arnold and Charles Lopresti; The duo of Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey had success with Mike Maker and Wesley Ward; The Augustin Stable had a successful fall meet with trainers Graham Motion and Jonathan Sheppard; and Courtlandt Farms enjoyed victories with Neil Howard and Bill Mott.

Order this book todayArt Parker is the author of the newly released publication “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns – 2011 fall meet edition.”  Learn the winning tendencies of the successful horsemen at Keeneland – click here for more details.

Learn the patterns of winning Keeneland trainers!

Learn the winning patterns of Keeneland trainersDid you know that…Keeneland held 161 thoroughbred races on 17 days in the fall of 2010.

Trainers winning at least 2 races totaled 28.

The 28 multiple winners won a total of 110 races collectively or 68% of all races.
Of the 28 multiple winners, 9 trainers won at least 5 races.
Those 9 trainers collected a total 64 wins or 40% of all races.

Profiting at Keeneland is all about knowing the tendencies of the individuals that know how to win year-in and year-out at the Lexington racetrack.   Click here to learn more about a new handicapping book.

How to avoid your arm falling off? Go to the races!

 Handicapper Art ParkerBy ART PARKER

At one time you either went to the track or to Las Vegas to gamble. Now, Americans can gamble in almost every state and the greatest opportunity to do so comes in the form of a slot machine, or video poker or electronic bingo. No matter what name is given to it, the activity features man against machine. The machine is often called by its popular nickname, a one-armed bandit.

I do not know why people like to play against the bandit. These machines are programmed to pay back a certain percentage of the amount deposited over the long haul. That’s how the casino makes money and stays in business. This method of gambling is known as “playing against the house,” which legally fixes odds in its favor. Thoroughbred racing involves pari-mutuel wagering, which simply means the participants play against each other with the winners of a race sharing a common pool of wagers.

One reason I was drawn to thoroughbred racing was because of my educational background.

A large part of America that gambles knows no other method than a slot machine or similar device. The growth of casino gaming came at the perfect time in America because it fit well with the video generation. That generation has generally ignored thoroughbred racing because wagering on racing requires more than pushing a few buttons or pulling a handle. Mechanical gaming appeals to current lifestyle and is accepted by a couple of generations with “easy to do” mentalities. That is the nicest way I can say “lazy.”

Thoroughbred racing has faced challenges in maintaining its share of the gambling market and capturing America’s entertainment dollar. A big problem for thoroughbred racing is that it requires the use of brain power to have any level of success. It is not for those that are lazy and refuse to accept a challenge.  

One reason I was drawn to thoroughbred racing was because of my educational background. A corporate finance major, I was required to read all kinds of financial statements including the stock sheets found in the Wall Street Journal and other financial publications. When you view the past performances you find a similarity to the stock sheets. Bid, ask, PE ratios, fractions, etc. and racing times, finishes and racing records provide statistical evidence for one to consume. All of this is information one can use to evaluate a corporation or an individual horse, depending on which publication is being held at the moment.

While the casino patron sits in front of a machine and must only decide to pull the handle again or quit, the horse player is using brain power, logic and deep thought to make a good bet, which doesn’t necessarily mean a winning bet. A good bet is one where you have an advantage based upon odds. When I bet a horse to win, I try to do the same thing as if I am buying stock in a corporation. I am looking for a bargain. I want a horse that is going off at 10-1 while I am convinced the horse should be 4-1. When I by a stock I want a corporation that is selling for $20 per share when my evaluation tells me it should be $32 per share.

I want a bargain. A slot machine never gives you a bargain because you do not get to make a decision on the individual wager. You only decide whether or not to pull the handle…again.

If people like to gamble, large or small, thoroughbred racing offers the perfect deal. You can go to the actual track, or a simulcast parlor, or you can play via Advanced Deposit Wagering (ADW) on the internet. You can have all of the recreation you want and you can decide if you want company or not. And while you are enjoying your recreational time you can do something mentally challenging and stimulating. I promise you, a slot machine provides no mental challenge or stimulation.

To top things off you can fall in love with the greatest sport of all. It is a sport that involves interesting people and athletes, plus all of the action centers around one of God’s greatest and truly magnificent creations, a horse.

If you have not tried to be a horse player give it a shot. If you occasionally play the horses but also sit on a stool in front of a slot machine, well, come on back to the track. Play the horses where you get to make decisions about investing your dollar. If you keep playing those machines you will either eventually lose all your money or your arm will fall off trying to lose all of your money.

— Art Parker is the author of the recently released handicapping guide “KEENELAND WINNING TRAINER PATTERNS” available now for the upcoming 2011 fall meet. It can be purchased here for less than $10, or for Kindle readers at Amazon.com.