Handicapping Tip of the Day #55 – The Only Race

A sharp trainer uses the condition book to plan the future of a horse especially when it comes to conditioning and training. However, things don’t always work out.

by Art Parker for AGameofSkill.com

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

I became friends with a trainer during my first year of playing the horses – the days when I was learning something new every day. One day I noticed he entered a horse above his usual class. After thinking he couldn’t possibly win, I decided to ask him why. I caught up with the trainer late in the day and asked him that very question after his horse finished seventh in a field of nine.

“It’s the only race I could find for him. He is fit and ready to run. That was the only thing close to where he belongs, so I entered. It looked like it would be another week or so before another race would be available, and I would rather run him and keep him in shape,” the trainer explained.

Understanding the Condition Book

That was before I learned all about a condition book. Once I got my hands on a book, I began to understand. We know that racing secretaries must write races that have a higher probability to fill and to make the races as competitive as possible. What is not possible is to have a ready-made class system that is fair to all and will provide an abundance of opportunities to all horses. Nor is it possible to have enough horses to fill all races and all races be competitive.

Understanding the Condition Book

I borrowed the words from a West Point Thoroughbreds website that best describes a condition book. “A condition book is the schedule of races for a given track during a certain period of time, usually a few weeks or a month. It is this schedule that provides a framework for trainers to develop the training regimens for their horses for this time period. While this seems straightforward, there are a number of factors that can change the timing of races. You see, just because a race is in the condition book doesn’t mean that enough horses will enter the race to warrant it being used. That is why you’ll see substitute races in the book as well. These are races that also get entries and can be used in place of another race on the card.”

A sharp trainer uses the condition book to plan the future of a horse especially when it comes to conditioning and training. However, things don’t always work out. A race perfect for one horse may not fill and a substitute race is used. When that happens a trainer that has a horse ready must find another race that fits his charge, but that is not always possible; hence, the horse may be placed in less than an ideal event.

When you examine past performances and you see an awful race last time out, don’t quickly conclude that the horse isn’t what he used to be. That last race may have been the only option for the trainer.

Great horse racing videos – the late, great Forty Niner versus two of his top rivals

Trainers Who Win Early in the Woodbine Thoroughbred Meet

Which trainers actually had a winner in the first five days of the meet each year for the three years selected? Here is the list…

By Art Parker

It is often hard to gauge trainer effectiveness at the beginning of a long meeting. Some trainers come with runners ready to go and others are more patient to strike. Trying to determine what trainers show up with fit horses and good intentions makes things hard for a horseplayer.

Woodbine

is no different. The long meet at Canada’s premier track starts April 21 and lasts until December 16. The Toronto track doesn’t swing into a full week schedule with four days of racing per week until mid-May.

 

Wager on WoodbineThe very early part of the meet, which some may view as a workout meet. The first few days offers almost nothing but sprint races, most of which are short at 5 furlongs or 5 ½ furlongs. I suppose there are several reasons for this, but I imagine the track gives trainers a chance to get a work into some of their horses coming off the winter months. Also, several trainers have a reduced amount of stock on hand since they are camped out at Keeneland, Gulfstream or other southern venues.

So the question at Woodbine is who shows up and of those who has the guns loaded?

I examined the first five days of the last three meets (2015, 2016 and 2017). There were some not so surprising revelations but some others that got my attention. The first thing I wanted to find out is consistency. Which trainers actually had a winner in the first five days of the meet each year for the three years selected? Here is the list and total winners including maiden wins (number of maiden wins in parenthesis)

Mike Depaulo – 10 wins (2)

Mark Casse – 8 wins (1)

Nick Gonzalez – 8 wins (5)

Norm McKnight -7 wins (4)

Bob Tiller – 6 wins (4)

John Ross – 4 wins (1)

Roger Attfield – 3 wins (1)

Kevin Attard – 3 wins (2)

These eight trainers are the only ones that meet the specifications. During the time period Woodbine held 140 races. These trainers won 49 races, or 35%. Of the 51 maiden races, this group won 20, or 39%.  Noteworthy stats, to say the least.

Here are the other trainers in the same time period that averaged at least one winner per year but failed to score in all years:

Vito Armata – 4 wins (1)

Josie Carroll – 3 wins (2)

Dave Cotey – 3 wins (2)

Denise McClachrie – 4 wins (3)

Nick Noswenko – 4 wins

William Tharennos – 5 wins (3)

Wesley Ward – 4 wins (2)

Add the two groups together and 15 trainers collectively won 76 races, or 54%. The same two groups won 33 of 51 maiden races, or 65%.

All trainers do some things better than others. That is true with the Woodbine trainers mentioned. Casse, Depaulo, Ross, Armata and Noswenko seem to have greater success with their horses who are winners, where Gonzalez, McKnight, Tiller, McClachrie, Tharennos (and others to a lesser degree) have demonstrated that their maidens are ready for battle.

Crush Keeneland with the Best Trainer Pattern Book

Rich Nilsen 13x NHC Qualifier

One score will more than pay for this book.  Our AGOS contributer Art Parker has a one-of-kind database on all the Keeneland trainers.  No one understands how these horsemen win better that Art. This year's guide is better than ever and now in a more user-friendly format.  It's a wealth of information for players wanting to attack the upcoming Keeneland meets.

Completely revamped. The 2017 Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns by Art Parker is now available.

Over 50 Trainers covered with a detailed summary of how they win!

Longshot horsemen identified for easy reference.

KEENELAND WINNING TRAINERS taps into Art Parker’s personal database and gives you the detailed pattern summaries on the 51 trainers, explaining exactly how they win at this prestigious meet.

Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns bookHow do they win? What handicapping patterns do they use?

How do they work their horses prior to victory?

Do they bring home horses at a price?

Do they score off the layoff?

What owners & jockeys do they team up with?

and much more.

Author and Agameofskill.com contributor Art Parker has taken a hard look into his comprehensive personal database to uncover the trainers that win the majority of races at the meet – the 51 Kings of Keeneland – with a close look at how they accomplish this.

This one-of-a-kind handicapping book includes three bonus handicapping articles written by veteran turf writers Art Parker and Rich Nilsen

The 2017 Annual Edition of “Keeneland Winning Trainers” is published by All Star Press LLC.
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Handicapper Art ParkerQUICK & EASY DOWNLOAD TO ANY DEVICE

You can put this comprehensive trainer guide on any PC or Mobile Device, and then easily look up the Kings of Keeneland when you are ready to handicap or play a race! Only $14.97 for the complete 33-page, jam packed book.

THAT’S LESS THAN 30 CENTS PER TRAINER

The Kindle version on Amazon is available here

The Book is Back! 2016 Kings of Keeneland

KEENELAND WINNING TRAINER PATTERNS

Keeneland 2016 – 2016 SPRING MEET EDITION – NOW AVAILABLE

Winning Patterns on the trainers that dominate this popular meet!  Bonus Handicapping Articles.

Detailed write-ups on the 24 trainers, explaining exactly how they win at this prestigious meet.

How do they win?  What patterns do they use?

How do they work their horses prior to victory?

What owners & jockeys do they team up with?

and much more.

Keeneland Winning Trainer Pattern no longer includes boring stats on a bunch of trainers.  Instead, author Art Parker has taken a hard look into his comprehensive personal database at the trainers that win the majority of races at the meet – the 24 so-called Kings of Keeneland.

Parker’s book includes two bonus handicapping articles written by veteran turf writers Art Parker and Rich Nilsen

 “It’s a wealth of information for horseplayers serious about attacking the Keeneland meets.  One score will more than pay for this book.” – publisher Rich Nilsen

The 2016 Spring Meet Edition of “Keeneland Winning Trainers” is published by All Star Press.  

Buy Now

Enhanced and streamlined book  includes detailed written analysis on the following 24 trainers:

The Kings of Keeneland

Amoss

Arnold

Asmussen

Brown

Casse

Catalano

Clement

Kenneally

Lopresti

Maker

McGaughey

McKeever

McLaughlin

McPeek

Motion

Mott

Pletcher

Proctor

Romans

Sheppard

Sims

Stall, Jr.

Stidham

Ward

You can put this comprehensive trainer guide on any PC or Mobile Device, and then easily look up the Kings of Keeneland when you are ready to handicap or play a race!  $12.97 for the complete 27-page, jam packed book.

NOW AVAILABLE – FOR ABOUT 50 CENTS PER TRAINER
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“One nice hit will pay for this book many times over!”

Keeneland 2016 – It’s Almost Here

By Art Parker

In just a few weeks the coolness will taper off. Some flowers will actually show signs of life and leaves will reappear on the trees. When there is no sign of precipitation and no clouds in the sky, the feeling will begin to strike you. You breathe the amazing fresh air and know that changes are coming. You think you will hear a gradual drum roll in the distance, perhaps a half-mile away.

It will not be a drum roll but the sound of hooves striking the ground in a rhythm that lets you know it is something living that makes the noise.  The amazing sky, perhaps only disfigured by the contrails of a high flying distant jet plane, leaves you convinced that some days are truly perfect. The perfect day is upon you as your mind dashes into the future, just a few days, and you see that creature with four thin legs, exploding with energy in the glorious surroundings and providing you with every reason to believe that the horse can actually run a hole in the wind. The sounds from others like you pierce the air while hearts pound faster, and even though there are winners and losers on this day, nothing can replace the fact that you are there and a part of those wonderful proceedings we call Thoroughbred racing.

Keeneland black and white

copyright 2016 AGameofSkill.com

Yes, it is almost springtime, a time when horse racing is rejuvenated after cold months of moderate and often dull activity. It is the time when nothing can hold this great sport in check because it is made for the time of year when people want their thrills handed to them, not inside a structure of bricks, but outside, where more than the racing can be enjoyed. There is nothing like it, this time of year, and it will soon be here.

That perfect day reminds me of some opening days at a place called Keeneland, nestled in the heart of thoroughbred country. Even though there are tracks that run in the winter, that first day of racing in Lexington, Kentucky should be declared the official opening of racing season everywhere. My favorite way to describe Keeneland is the track “on loan from Heaven.”

Keeneland will open April 8 and run until April 29. The big features will be on April 9 with the running of the Grade One Blue Grass and the Grade One Ashland. What a wonderful place filled with great racing and superb, intelligent racing fans.

I just can’t wait.

Below is an excerpt of Parker’s Keeneland Trainers book, coming soon to AGameofSkill.com.

Kenneally, Eddie – 28 wins at Keeneland

Winning Patterns: 1st Race after Layoff of at least 45 days (8), Second career race (6),  First career race (4),

Turf-to-Main surface switch (4)

The 49 year old was born in Ireland into a family that was involved with horses. His father, uncle and brother have been in the horse business. Kenneally came to the US in 1987. He was an exercise rider and assistant trainer before he started his own stable.

Kenneally does well with horses in their run after a layoff and also first time starters. About 29 percent of his winners are runners coming off a layoff and 3/4 of those are dropping in class. When it comes to debut runners Kenneally strikes at a 14-percent rate while at Keeneland and his second time starters, all of which that have won were ridden by Corey Lanerie, do even better providing Kenneally with 22-percent of his winners. Together, Kenneally does unusually well with either first or second starters, which is definitely a pattern to look for; but keep in mind that he does not turn a rookie horse around very quick.

His winning second time starters usually come back to the track after being idle for 4-5 weeks. Keeping with his first layoff horses dropping in class, Kenneally does not strike often with horses moving up in class, in fact less than 10 perce3nt of his winners fall into that category. Kenneally can get you a price as close to 35 percent of his winners paid in double digit. As far as riders go, Kenneally’s main man is Corey Lanerie, who rode half of his winners and Julien Leparoux who piloted 36 percent of his winners. The Lally Stable has been Kenneally’s top client and cashed in on 19 percent of the trainer’s Keeneland wins.

Handicapping Tip of the Day #15 – Sneaky Trainer Entry

Take special note of the uncoupled entries

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

Handicapping Tip of the Day – November 17, 2015

Last time I mentioned the importance of noting blinkers changes before you begin your handicapping. The second thing I do after noting the blinker changes is to find any “uncoupled entries,” which can be a gold mine awaiting the horseplayer. An uncoupled entry occurs when a trainer has two or more horses in a race but they are not coupled, such as in 1 and 1A. The uncoupled entry runs as separate betting interests. There are no notes to alert you to this situation; you got to find them yourself.

 

Jockey and trainer at Keeneland - Copyright agameofskill.com

I go through every race to see if a trainer’s name appears more than once in each race, and when it does I place a higher priority on analyzing that race than others. The public is swift to dismiss the less appealing part of the entry based upon what’s in the running lines, and that is a huge mistake. Successful trainers do not put a horse in a race with losing being the sole intention. Also, many trainers make a living by cashing a well-planned ticket and the best way to elevate the price of one horse is by entering another that looks to be better on paper. The best time to play the high end of an uncoupled entry is when one of the entrants is taking a lot of money at the windows.

— Art Parker

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Winning Trainers at Keeneland – to date

Alpha List of Keeneland FALL 2015 wins

As of the conclusion of racing on October 18, 2015  (13 days of racing)

 

Arnold                         2

Asmussen                    4

Baker                           1

Bennett                       2

Borell                          1

Bradley                        1

Burchell                       1

Calhoun                       1

Casse                           8

Catalano                      4

Colebrook                    2

Cowan                         1

Cox, Brad                    2

Delacour                     1

Dorochenko                 1

Foley, V.                      1

Gorder                         1

Hamilton                     1

Haran                          1

Hartlage                      1

Hartman                      1

Hiles                            1

Hinsley                        1

Howard                       1

Jones, Larry                 2

Kenneally                    3

Kordenbrock                1

Kurtinecz                     1

Lopresti                       1

Lukas                           2

Lynch                           1

Maker                         1

Mason                         1

McGaughey                 1

McLaughlin                 4

McPeek                       6

McKeever                    1

Michael, B                   1

Montano                     1

Moquett                      1

Morse                          3

Motion                        2

Mott                            1

O’Connell                    1

Oliver, V                      1

O’Neill                         1

Peery                           1

Pletcher                       3

Porter                          1

Preciado                      1

Proctor                        1

Richard, Chris             4

Rivelli                          1

Romans                       5

Scherer, M                  1

Schu                             1

Sharp                           4

Stidham                       1

Sullivan                        1

Tomlinson                   2

Vance                          1

Vashchenko                 1

Von Hemel                  1

Ward, Wesley            6

Wilkes                         1

Woodward                  1

Keeneland 2015 fall trainer bookLearn how the “Kings of Keeneland” dominate this meet in Art Parker’s book.

Trainers to Know at Keeneland

 Jockey and trainer at Keeneland

Copyright agameofskill.com

by Rich Nilsen

Several years ago Howard Battle, who for four decades served as the Racing Secretary at Keeneland, had this to say about his beloved racetrack: Keeneland should be the national park of racing.  The beauty of spring with the clean, clear air and the blooms of the pears, crab apples and dogwoods are excelled only in October by the yellows, golds, ambers, oranges and reds of the same flora. Besides the aesthetic atmosphere and multitudinous contradictions to most racing establishments — tree-lined parking, one-mile-and-a-sixteenth course, two finish lines, facing the sun, and being near the horses in their natural setting — we are still the best road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) and now the Breeders’ Cup in the fall.”

It’s true that few, if any, tracks rival Keeneland in both its beauty or history.  The Lexington, Kentucky track also offers a unique and popular race meet. Handicappers should understand the motivation of the connections (owners and trainers) as well as how the short condition book is written. With few claiming races written, the racing cards cater to the high profile barns that ship in from out of state for the short meet.  The only turf races are allowance events and stakes. To many owners, winning a race at Keeneland is equivalent to capturing multiple events at another track.

Keeneland Trainers

Many of the best barns point for this meeting and have their runners primed to run their best races. There are also many fine local Kentucky trainers, like Phil Sims and Andrew McKeever, who do well during the spring and fall meets, and knowing who they are behooves the horseplayer.  Knowing how they win is even more important.

Regular AGameofSkill.com contributor Art Parker publishes his Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns book twice a year, and going into this fall meet, he has compiled 24 trainers who he has termed, “The Kings of Keeneland.”  These two dozen trainers have dominated Keeneland over the past several years:

Tom Amoss

George Arnold

Roger Attfield

Chad Brown

Mark Casse

Wayne Catalano

Christophe Clement

Eddie Kenneally

Charles Lopresti

Michael Maker

Shug McGaughey

Andrew McKeever

Kiaran McLaughlin

Kenny McPeek

Graham Motion

Bill Mott

ToddPletcher

William Proctor

Dale Romans

Jonathan Sheppard

Phil Sims

Al Stall, Jr.

Michael Stidham

Wesley Ward

You can discover more about how the Kings of Keeneland win, day in and day out, by tapping into Art’s book, “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns – 2015 Fall Meet”

KEENELAND BONUS TIP

Pay Attention Early for a Track Bias
Pay attention to the first couple of races each day at Keeneland to determine if any bias is at play. On many days the track will play fair but, if you can catch a bias early, the rest of your day could prove very lucrative. On a day when the track is favoring speed, you’ll see the early pace horses hanging on well and closers having a difficult time making up any ground.

Look to take advantage of the 1 1/16-mile races. The starting gate for this commonly run Keeneland dirt distance is close to the first turn and the stretch run is short, making it conducive to speed horses breaking from inside posts.  Stretch runners typically do not have time to succeed with their lates run.

Also, keep in mind that when it rains, the track has a tendency to be speed favoring.

Keeneland Winning Trainer Profile: Roger Attfield

Keeneland Green LogoA Trainer Profile from the book Keeneland Winning Trainer Pattern

At age 76 Roger Attfield is doing anything but slowing down. His annual routine takes him to Gulfstream Park, Keeneland and then back home to Woodbine. And he may work in the fall meeting at Keeneland as well. The English born Attfield has received the highest racing honor on both sides of the Canadian-US border. He has been inducted into the racing Hall of Fame in both countries. He has won the Sovereign Award for Outstanding Trainer in Canada a record six times. And a very impressive note in his resume is that Attfield trained three of the seven horses who have won the Canadian Triple Crown.

Scoring with first layoff runners is where Attfield excels the most. Over 62% of his winners at Keeneland have been those returning from a rest. About 18% of his winners are those in their second race after a layoff. Attfield normally works his horses 6-8 days apart with a final prep coming 3-4 days before race day. Over two-thirds of his winners have their final work at Keeneland, no matter from where he is shipping.

A large percentage of Attfield’s runners will show work (including racing) between 12-20 furlongs in the past 30 days. Longshots rarely come with a Roger Attfield entry. Of all his wins in Lexington he has only one runner that went off at more than 10-1. Three owners account for more than half of Attfield’s winners: Charles Fipke, Stella Perdomo and Harlequin Racing. Half of Attfield’s winners were ridden by either John Velazquez, Jose Lezcano or Javier Castellano.

Keeneland Winning Trainer Pattern no longer includes boring stats on a bunch of trainers.  Instead, author Art Parker has taken a hard look into his comprehensive personal database at the trainers that win the majority of races at the meet – the 24 so-called Kings of Keeneland.

Parker’s includes two bonus handicapping articles written by veteran turf writers Tom Amello and Rich Nilsen.

Click here for more information on this one-of-a-kind book that you can download to any device.

FINAL 36 HOURS: Keeneland Trainers Book Being Taken Down

This is it.  Final Chance to download Art Parker’s one of a kind publication to help you win on the Keeneland meet and year round in Kentucky.  We’re taking the book down for sale on Saturday evening.

KEENELAND WINNING TRAINERS

– 2015 SPRING MEET EDITION 

Keeneland_2015 Spring meetWinning Patterns on the trainers that dominate this popular meet!  Bonus Handicapping Articles.  NEW & IMPROVED! Detailed write-ups on the 18 trainers, explaining exactly how they win at this prestigious meet.

Keeneland Winning Trainer Pattern no longer includes boring stats on a bunch of trainers.  Instead, author Art Parker has taken a hard look into his comprehensive personal database at the trainers that win the majority of races at the meet – the 18 so-called Kings of Keeneland.

Parker includes two bonus handicapping articles, explaining how to take notes on winners that are great bet-againsts next time out, and how to use trainer handicapping to your advantage.

 “It’s a wealth of information for horseplayers serious about attacking the Keeneland meets.” – publisher Rich Nilsen

The 2015 Spring Meet Edition of “Keeneland Winning Trainers” is still available for a few more hours from publisher All Star Press.

Enhanced and streamlined book  includes detailed written analysis on the following 18 trainers:

The Kings of Keeneland

Tom Amoss

George “Rusty” Arnold

Mark Casse

Wayne Catalano

Christophe Clement

Eddie Kenneally

Charles Lopresti

Mike Maker

Shug McGaughey

Ken McPeek

Graham Motion

Bill Mott

Todd Pletcher

Tom Proctor

Dale Romans

Al Stall, Jr.

Michael Stidham

Wesley Ward

 

Buy Now – only $9.97, the only book of its kind

You can put this comprehensive trainer guide on any PC or Mobile Device, and then easily look up the Kings of Keeneland when you are ready to handicap or play a race!