Did the Tampa Bay Derby make sense?

Handicapper Art ParkerBy ART PARKER

The Tampa Bay Derby was not on my docket of possible races to play so I didn’t examine the race at all the day of the event. I caught the replay that night just trying to keep in touch with the Kentucky Derby trail. Upon watching the replay of the Tampa Bay Derby I was motivated to find out why the public let the winner, King Guillermo, go off at odds of 49-1.

We all know that hindsight is 20/20 but some things must not be overlooked when examining a race, such as the company line of previous races. The 2020 Tampa Bay Derby is a prime example.

First take a look at the clear favorite, Sole Volante, who went off at 3/2 in the 12 horse field. Any horse that goes off at odds that heavy, especially in a full field, must look almost invincible to the bettors. Sole Volante was three of four and his trio of wins came from noticeably off the pace.

There were only two horses in the race not nominated to the Triple Crown, the winner King Guillermo and Texas Swing (almost 20-1), the latter finished third behind Sole Volante. Maybe the two runners not nominated lost some pari-mutuel appeal when the players failed to see the TC nomination next to their name.

It is true that the last two races by King Guillermo were on the turf, including his maiden victory and the Tampa Bay Derby is run on the main dirt track. King Guillermo’s second turf race saw him close up and in possession of the lead from the half mile call until the final furlong. He finished third that day in another big field and was the beaten favorite. In fact he finished third, just 3 ½ lengths behind the winner, Sole Volante, who went off the board at more than 13-1.

How can a horse in his last start be bet so heavily and lose to a 13-1 by just 3 ½ lengths, and now be at 49-1, while the other horse is 3/2?

The public gave a 40% probability of winning the Tampa Bay Derby to Sole Volante. The public gave a meager 2% probability of victory to King Guillermo.

It’s easy to miss longshots, but it is easier to hit just a few more by asking the question, “Does that make sense?”

Triple Crown | KY Derby Watch – Tampa Bay Derby

This was a full field of 12 three year old racehorses and one of the big outsiders in the field pulled the shocker.  Despite breaking outward some from the 11 hole, King Guillermo rushed up to get into good position around the first turn.  Showed nice rating ability to sit off the leader before taking over late in the race.  The son of Uncle Mo drew off to an impressive 4 3/4-length score under a jubilant Sammy Camacho.  The 49-1 longshot is owned by 5-time MLB baseball star Victor Martinez.

Favorite Sole Volante was too far back early and had to momentarily wait for room on the far turn.  The gelding stormed home late up the rail belatedly for 2nd.

The 2020 Fountain of Youth recap here at agameofskill.com

Tampa Bay Derby could make or break horses for Kentucky Derby

The Tampa Bay Derby takes place on Saturday, March 9th at Tampa Bay Downs. The event is one of American Thoroughbred racing’s biggest lead-up races to the Kentucky Derby. This year’s event will carry a significant number of Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The Tampa Bay Derby could make or break a horse ahead of May’s race in Louisville. American horse racing fans are following the build-up to the race in Florida. The Tampa Bay Derby could have an impact on the rest of the American racing calendar and bettors can use PA sportsbooks to wager on the outcome of the big race.

The race has grown in popularity in recent years. Due to horse racing fans being able to glimpse a possible Kentucky Derby winner, it has led many to seek out the race. In addition, due to the number of races held at Tampa Bay Downs during the day, it brings out quite a few well-known jockeys and horses.

With the Tampa Bay Derby on tap for this Saturday, here are some of the key storylines horse racing enthusiasts should know.

Tampa Bay Derby – Impact on Kentucky Derby

One of the most important aspects about the Tampa Bay Derby is the impact it has on the Kentucky Derby. Top horse racing trainers, owners, and jockeys want to compete at Churchill Downs in May. However, to get to Louisville, race horses must earn points in specified prep races.

The Tampa Bay Derby is one of these designated races. The race winner receives 50 points, which means they will qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Second, third, and fourth place divide up the remaining 35 points available.

Tampa Bay Derby – The race

The Grade 2 race will see a prize fund of $400,000 up for grabs. The Derby will be the highlight of the day at Tampa Bay Downs. Twelve races will be run during the event as horse racing fans will get their fill of thoroughbred horses. The one and one-sixteenth mile race sees 11 horses competing for Kentucky Derby points.

Trainer Dale L. Romans’ Admire is listed as the sportsbooks’ favorite. The three-year-old and up race is run on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs. Opened in 1926, Tampa Bay Downs is one of the Unite States’ oldest and most famous racetracks.

Tampa Bay Derby – Experts top choice

Derby experts have praised Win WinWin as the horse to beat. There is a lot of hype surrounding the horse and Saturday’s race should show the world if it is warranted. In his most recent effort, Win WinWin won the Pasco Stakes, marking his third victory from four career starts. If the horse can win at Tampa Bay Downs, he could parlay that success into the Kentucky Derby.

The Tampa Bay Derby started in 1981. Since its inception, two horses who have run in the race have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. In 2007, Street Sense won at Churchill Downs after participating at Tampa. Three years later, Super Saver won the Kentucky Derby after placing third at the Tampa Bay Derby.

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Press Release

When you put more money up for grabs than ever before in track history, it’s logical to expect top-quality racing.

Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Tapwrit and the other four stakes winners more than delivered.

The Festival Day card on March 11, 2017 produced a track record and three stakes records (four if you count the Columbia Stakes, which was being run at a distance of a mile on the turf for the first time).

A crowd of 10,079 more than did its part to make the day memorable, contributing to total wagering handle of $12,123,021.60, the second-largest figure in Tampa Bay Downs annals.

“We’re extremely pleased and proud to see our biggest day receive such tremendous support from the Tampa Bay community,” said track Vice President-General Manager Peter Berube. “We wish all the participants the best of fortune going forward, and naturally we’re hopeful Tapwrit will move on to compete in the Kentucky Derby (Presented by Yum! Brands).”

The striking gray colt Tapwrit was the unquestioned standout of the afternoon, launching a powerful move approaching the far turn and going on to a four-and-a-half length victory from State of Honor in the Grade II, $350,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. His time of 1:42.36 for the mile-and-a-sixteenth is a new stakes record, and would have been a track record had not his stablemate, 5-year-old Stanford, won the $100,000 Challenger at the same distance three races earlier.

Both horses are trained by Todd Pletcher, who won his third consecutive Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, fourth in five years and fifth overall.

Also setting a course record was the 3-year-old filly Fifty Five, who won the Grade III, $200,000 Florida Oaks for 3-year-old fillies on the turf in 1:41.60 for the mile-and-a-sixteenth.

2017 Tampa Bay Derby Features No Dozing, Tapwrit

Press Release

After watching No Dozing breeze five furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday morning with his wife Leigh in the irons, trainer Arnaud Delacour pronounced the 3-year-old colt a likely starter for Saturday’s Grade II, $350,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby.

“Everything needs to go well between now and then, but we’re happy with where we’re at right now,” Delacour said. “He started a touch slow today because Leigh had to wait a bit on a horse breezing in front of her, but he was moving well and picked it up nicely.”

Both Delacour and Tampa Bay Downs clocker George Horner timed No Dozing in 1:01 3/5, going the final eighth of a mile in 12 1/5 seconds. “He came back happy, and I’m very encouraged by the way he’s handling his training and behaving,” Delacour said.

No Dozing, a son of Union Rags-Stay Awake, by Pulpit, and owned by the Lael Stables of his breeders, Roy and Gretchen Jackson, is one of seven probables for the 37th edition of the mile-and-a-sixteenth Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, a major “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep race.

The others currently expected to run include the runner-up in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 11 at Tampa Bay Downs, Tapwrit; third-place Sam F. Davis finisher State of Honor; Wild Shot, who finished fourth; Beasley; Third Day; and Tale of Silence.

A field of at least 10 sophomores is expected after the Sam F. Davis winner, undefeated McCraken, was withdrawn from consideration by trainer Ian Wilkes with an ankle strain.

Each of the current probables, with the exception of Wild Shot, worked out over the last few days, with the Mark Hennig-trained Beasley turning in an eye-opening move of 46.90 for four furlongs Saturday at Gulfstream Park, the fastest of 58 recorded works at the distance.

Tampa Bay Downs grandstand copyright AGameofSkill.com

copyright AGameofSkill.com

The Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby is the centerpiece of a Festival Day card that will be the most lucrative in Oldsmar oval history, offering $925,000 in stakes purses.

Four other stakes will be contested, including the Grade II, $200,000 Hillsborough Stakes, for older fillies and mares at a mile-and-an-eighth on the turf; the Grade III, $200,000 Florida Oaks, for 3-year-old fillies at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf; the $100,000 Challenger Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the main track; and the $75,000 Columbia Stakes for 3-year-olds at a mile on the turf.

As part of the Festival Day program, Tampa Bay Downs will present a commemorative umbrella to each of the first 7,500 fans through the gates, with paid admission. The inside lining of each umbrella is decorated with colorful photographs of each of the 2016 Festival Day stakes winners.

No Dozing, who had finished a strong second in the Grade II Remsen Stakes in his final 2-year-old start on Nov. 26 at Aqueduct, finished an uninspired sixth in the Sam F. Davis, a lackluster performance that mystified his trainer. He had a trouble-free trip, he didn’t bleed and a post-race blood examination revealed no issues.

As well as No Dozing has trained here since Jan. 8, Delacour doesn’t believe he had an issue with the track. So he decided to let No Dozing tell him what came next race-wise, bringing him over for a four-furlong workout on Feb. 26 that convinced him No Dozing deserved another chance against this level of competition.

No Dozing responded with a 47 2/5 move for four furlongs that was the fastest of 62 workouts at the distance that day, and today’s breeze boosted Delacour’s confidence another notch. Leading Tampa Bay Downs jockey Daniel Centeno is No Dozing’s pilot.

“I wouldn’t run him if I didn’t think he will perform well, and the way he breezed last week was very good,” said Delacour, who saddled Divining Rod for a third-place Tampa Bay Derby finish in 2015. “When you bring a horse over in the afternoon, you always think they can perform, but they have to prove it to you. We’re looking forward to having a fair evaluation and seeing if he fits in the (Kentucky) Derby trail races.”

Delacour also worked his 7-year-old Eclipse Award Sprint finalist, A.P. Indian. The multiple-Grade I winner, who is being pointed toward the Grade III Commonwealth Stakes on April 8 at Keeneland, breezed four furlongs in 49 seconds.

Tapwrit, owned by Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Robert V. LaPenta, worked four furlongs Saturday at Palm Beach Downs in Delray Beach in 50 4/5 seconds. Tapwrit trainer Todd Pletcher, who also conditions Third Day, has won three of the last four runnings of the race, including last year with Destin.

State of Honor, owned by Conrad Farms and trained by Mark Casse, breezed four furlongs Friday in 47.75 seconds at Palm Meadows Training Center in Boynton Beach.

At least eight fillies are expected to run in the 19th Hillsborough Stakes, which in recent years has been won by such top-flight turf females as Zagora (2012), Stephanie’s Kitten (2015) and last year’s winner, Tepin.

Expected to head the field is the Pletcher-trained 5-year-old mare Isabella Sings, who won the Grade III Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes here on Feb. 11 by three lengths with her exciting front-running style.

Other likely starters include Grade III winners Dickinson, Evidently and My Impression, as well as Grade III winner Family Meeting, who was third in last year’s Florida Oaks.

A large field is also likely for the 34th Oaks, headed by a trio of fillies that competed in the Breeders’ Cup in November at Santa Anita. Included in that group is the Ken McPeek-trained Daddys Lil Darling, who finished fourth in the 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and has a victory in the Grade II Pocahontas Stakes and a pair of graded second-place efforts to her credit.

Other probables include the fifth and sixth-place finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Rymska and La Coronel. Both are Grade III winners, with Rymska trained by 2017 Eclipse Award Outstanding Trainer Chad Brown and La Coronel conditioned by Mark Casse.

The 26th Challenger Stakes, with a rich history that includes the 2012 victory by subsequent Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned, is expected to draw last year’s winner, 8-year-old gelding Adirondack King, from the barn of John Servis. Other probables include multiple-Grade II winner Blofeld, from the barn of trainer George “Rusty” Arnold, II; multiple graded-stakes winner Stanford, trained by Pletcher; the Argentine multiple Group I-winning Idolo Porteno, trained by Ignacio Correas, IV; and Grade III winner Ami’s Flatter, a Josie Carroll-trainee who finished second in the 2015 Tampa Bay Derby.

At least eight sophomores are expected to compete in the Columbia Stakes, which was run as the Chris Thomas Turf Classic from 2000-2009.