AGameofSkill.com Handicapping Tip of the Day – The Drop

Class drops in horse racing are situations where a horse has been facing tougher competition and now is dropping into “softer” company.  The most potent of all class drops is the maiden special weights to maiden claiming move.  In maiden special weight races horses can not be “claimed” or purchased for any price.   Whereas in the maiden claiming races, horses are entered for a specific claiming price.  Every horse in the race is for sale as a pre-determined price.

When is the class drop most effective? The drop is most powerful when the claiming price of today’s race is $40,000 or less, and the horse is exiting a maiden special weights event.   The lower price today, the softer the competition.  Handicappers will often see remarkable turn-arounds, such as a horse defeated 15 lengths or more in a maiden special weights who returns to win when dropped into the maiden claiming races where the competition is significantly softer.  A very positive sign is if the runner made some type of move (passed horses between calls) or displayed good early speed.

One caveat that handicappers should be aware of with this handicapping tip is the state-bred maiden special weights drop into open maiden claimers, where horses from any state can run in.   In many cases, this is not much class relief for the horse in question and will not result in a huge turnaround.

– Rich Nilsen

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