Sam F. Davis Analysis – 2017

By Rich Nilsen

Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs, Sam F. Davis                  4:45 pm ET

PACE SCENARIO: Honest to fast pace with State Of Honor, donning blinkers on and the rail, and Wild Luck and Chance Of Luck all wanting the front end.  Sitting behind the trio will be Fact Finding. This track typically favors runners with tactical speed.

Spot Play? #3 FACT FINDING is a rare undefeated Todd Pletcher 3yo who is not the headline in an early Kentucky Derby prep.  That belongs to favorite McCraken, who I feel is vulnerable breaking from a bad post and spotting weight off the layoff.  FACT FINDING has crushed his competition in all three starts and trainer Todd Pletcher has tremendous success in recent years at Tampa Bay Downs. I look for this one to sit a perfect trip behind the pace before taking over and drawing off on the turn for home.  He’ll hold off the closers.

Selections:

1st-  # 3 FACT FINDING

2nd- # 7 Tapwrit

3rd- # 8 McCraken

4th- # 9 No Dozing

5th- # 1 State Of Honor

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