Travers Day Full-card Analysis by Rich Nilsen

with Wagering Strategies & Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Results:  Nilsen selected the winner of the Travers, Epicenter, but missed the exacta.  He gave out two spot plays, the second one Wicked Groove won the finale.  He paid a whopping $18.20 win and keyed a winning $98.00 exacta!

Rich Nilsen handicapper

About This Report

Rich Nilsen is the founder of AGameofSkill.com and one of the top tournament players in the country.

Nilsen only does a few sheets a year and this is one of them.  He offers up his full-card analysis for Saratoga on Saturday, August 27th.

The last time he did the Travers’ sheet he had all 13 winners listed among his selections for each race.  In 2016 Nilsen crushed the Travers Day card, selecting Haveyougoneaway who upset the G1 Ballerina at odds of 10-1!   But Nilsen wasn’t done.  He followed up that score up by giving out top selection ARROGATE, track-record winner of the G1 Travers Stakes who paid an amazing $25.40 to win for followers of the sheet.  Another top pick ran 2nd at odds of 17-1 in race 3 on that day, returning a huge place payoff.

The analysis provides selections for every race plus two best bet spot plays along with wagering strategies.  Each race includes Nilsen’s detailed pace scenario which explains how the race will set up.  Nilsen provides his top selection for the Travers’ Stakes,  commentary  and he offers up his recommended  wagers for the big race.

Put an expert on your side as you attack Saratoga on their biggest day of the year. Get all 13-races for under $1 per race.

2022 Travers’s Day – All 13 Races

Affordable at only $9.77 for the full card.

Full card analysis – instant download

 

Download instantly to any device. 9-page PDF document.

This sheet contains:

  • Top selections for all 13 races
  • Sophisticated Pace Scenario for all 13 races
  • 2 Spot Plays (Best Bets) on the undercard w/ wagering strategies
  • Analysis of the Travers Stakes with Exacta & Trifecta strategies.

The Travers Day card features over $1.6 Million in Guaranteed wagers. The $1 Million Guaranteed Pick 4 begins on Race 8.

Previous Travers’ Testimonials:

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

 


About Rich Nilsen

Founder of AGameofSkill.com, Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournament and an 18-time qualifier to the multi million-dollar National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).  There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s awesome 13-race Travers card.

 

Get selections for all 13 races on the Saratoga Saturday card.  Download now for only $9.77 to any device.

Nilsen’s Spot Plays and Belmont Stakes with Wagering Strategies

Rich Nilsen handicapperWagering Strategies & Spot Plays for 2022 by Rich Nilsen

This is Rich Nilsen’s home track and the results have showed in recent years. Nilsen gave out $34.80 winner Creator as his top pick as well as the huge exacta with Destin that returned over $260.  He followed that up the next year with top selection $12.60 Tapwrit and the exacta and trifecta!  Nilsen has picked the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the previous five years (there was no play in 2021).

Founder of AGameofSkill.com, Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournaments and an 18-time qualifier to the multi million-dollar National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

There are a lot of pretenders out there charging ridiculous prices. Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing Belmont Stakes card.

NEW! New Spot Plays Report in 2022

  • 3 Spot Plays on the Card – three price horses on the card including a bomber in the Jaipur Stakes
  • The 3 races include wagering strategies
  • One of the 3 races is the Belmont Stakes with a longshot on top!

Get all 3 spot plays including the Belmont Stakes.  Download now for only $9.97 to any device.

 

If you end up doing well on Belmont Stakes day, please consider giving a donation to one of the following great organizations:

Belmont Child Care Association which supports Anna’s House and the families and children on the New York backside (www.belmontchildcare.org).  Another is Acacia Courtney’s Racing For Home, which supports ex-racehorses.

2016 Write-Up on TOP SELECTION CREATOR

CREATOR lost his best chance when he broke from an inside post in the field of 20 and encountered a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby.  Prior to that he was ultra impressive, sweeping by the field in the G1 Arkansas Derby.  If you want to see an incredible maiden win, just go back and what this colt’s Feb. 27 score at Oaklawn, and you’ll again see the type of late kick this guy possesses.  Trainer Steve Asmussen has the son of Tapit working well for this rebound race, including a blowout 4f drill over the Belmont training track. Bred to run all day, Creator will drop back under new rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. and come rolling late at a big price. 

Testimonial from the 2017 Sheet:

“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit !! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry.

I think  #9 meantime had enough speed to compromise Irish War Cry. Have feeling that if he wasn’t in the race, Irish War Cry might have been loose on the lead ,and had enough to win.  I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey !! let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash !!
 
Thanks Again, 
Wayne M.

Get THE WIZARD full-card sheet for Belmont Stakes Day – click here for more information

Nilsen’s Preakness Stakes Analysis for Saturday, May 20th

Rich Nilsen handicapperby Rich Nilsen, founder of Agameofskill.com

Pimlico, PREAKNESS STAKES 147, race 13, post time 6:48 ET

Expected Pace: Should be an honest pace with Early Voting leading the way but getting tested mid-race by both Armagnac and prohibitive favorite Epicenter.  That could set it up for a stalker with a strong late kick.

Top Selection: # 4 SECRET OATH (9/2) – After crushing rivals of her own sex this winter/spring, the D.Wayne Lukas star gave one of her most impressive efforts in defeat at Oaklawn Park.  Simply put, it was a brutal trip and an even worse ride in the Arkansas Derby.  Off that sneaky good third place showing, Secret Oath received a new rider in red hot Luis Saez, one of the best in the nation.  With this same logic, I loved her in the Kentucky Oaks as she was a best bet spot play for me.  She rewarded that confidence with another powerful win over her peers, taking the Friday feature in dominating fashion over a very good filly from the Todd Pletcher barn named Nest.  Lukas, who has won six Preakness Stakes in his historic career, knows that he has a horse capable of adding to that resume.  I look for slight regression from the favorite Epicenter off a very taxing race, and another solid run for this remarkable filly.

2nd Selection: # 5 Early Voting (7/2) – has been pointed to this race since a solid second in the Wood Memorial, and trainer Chad Brown has won this race before, so he knows what it takes to land in the winner’s circle for the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown.  The expected pacesetter has one of the best gate riders in the country, Jose Ortiz back aboard.

3rd Selection: # 8 Epicenter (6/5) – will get hammered in the betting off a great effort, a ‘winning’ performance, in the Run for the Roses.  Joel Rosario will have to avoid a mid-race duel with Early Voting approaching the far turn.  I can see the big favorite possibly regressing off that tough effort just two weeks ago.

4th Selection: # 2 Creative Minister (10/1) – a viable longshot from the always dangerous barn of trainer Kenny McPeek, who won this race with the filly Swiss Skydiver just two years ago.  The grandson of Tapit overcame an unlucky trip to win going away last time out at Churchill and he is clearly improving in leaps and bounds with every start. He will be finishing down the lane.

RECOMMENDED WAGERING STRATEGIES FOR PREAKNESS 147

Play # 4 SECRET OATH to WIN.

Exacta partwheel # 4 over # 2, 5, 8.

$30 cost for $10 increments.   Reverse for half ($15 cost).

Trifecta partwheel 4 with 2, 5, 8 with ALL

$21 cost for $1 increments.

Trifecta partwheel # 2, 5, 8 with 4 with ALL

$21 cost for $1 increments.

Trifecta partwheel 4 with ALL with 2, 5, 8.

$21 cost for $1 increments.

Trifecta Box 2-4-5-8 ($12 wager for $.50 increments).

Remember to always wager within your comfort zone and best of luck in this year’s Preakness Stakes!

Looking for Full-card selections with wagers?

Check out The Wizard – America’s #1 Handicapper since 1986.  Sold on track at Saratoga and all New York horse racing venues for over 30 years.

He is online with Saturday’s full-card coverage of Pimlico and the 147th Preakness Stakes.

Nilsen’s Spot Plays with Black-Eyed Susan Analysis

After a successful KY Derby and Oaks weekend, Rich Nilsen  is online with Spot Plays and wagering strategies for four select best bets on Friday at Pimlico, including the featured Black-Eyed Susan.  Picking your spots is vital to beating the races, and in this new sheet Nilsen picks the best spot plays on the big card at Pimlico.

Nilsen also includes his Pace Chart for the entire 14-race card at Pimlico, so you can see how each race is forecasted to set up – another vital component of winning handicapping!

Download this affordable, expert analysis today – only $10.77.  PDF format to any device.

 

 

2022 Kentucky Derby/Oaks Package Recap

Here a recap of the results from Rich Nilsen’s 2022 Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day Analysis.  With tipsters and shysters charging $50, 75 or more for Kentucky Derby picks, Rich produces only a handful of sheets per year and offers it up at an affordable price for race fans (under $15.)  It was a great day for players who downloaded Rich’s analysis.

Friday, May 6, 2022 (bonus Oaks pick)

Top selection SECRET OATH wins the Kentucky Oaks at odds of 4-1, paying $10.80 to win.  Keys $39.40 exacta over 2nd choice Nest, and hits $616.80 Trifecta for a $1 payout.  All given out on the sheet, the only play for Friday, Oaks Day.

Saturday, May 7th – Kentucky Derby 148 Card

1st race: $11.00 Winner (2nd choice) with $94.10 Trifecta recommended.

No play/selection race 2

3rd race: $8.00 Winner (Top choice)

No play/selection race 4

5th race: $4.20 Winner (Top choice)

6th race: Missed $75 winner

7th race: $3.40 Winner (Top choice)

8th race: $9.60 Winner (5th choice)

9th race: Missed $13 winner

10th race: $4.00 Winner (Top choice)

11th race: $170.80 Exacta recommended with $16.20 winner (4th choice) over top choice 9-1 shot Mira Mission who lost by a long neck.

12th race: Missed 80-1 KY Derby winner Rich Strike (why don’t I bet names!?!).  Top choice Mo Donegal ran 5th.

No plays/selections races 13 and 14.   Skeptical? Check out AGOS founder Rich Nilsen’s Analysis_KYDerby_2022

Actual winning tickets from horseplayers who used Nilsen’s sheet:

$10.80 winner Secret Oath

 

$170 exacta 5 times!

 

The Wizard – America’s Handicapper since 1986 – is now online for Preakness Day.  Wizard’s full package for Saturday at Pimlico available here

Recap of Rich Nilsen’s 2022 Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day Analysis

This is a recap of the results from Rich Nilsen’s 2022 Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day Analysis.  With tipsters charging $50, 75 or more for Kentucky Derby picks, Rich produces only a handful of sheets per year and offers it up at an affordable price for race fans (under $15.)  It was a great day for players who downloaded Rich’s analysis.

Friday, May 6, 2022 (bonus Oaks pick)

Top selection SECRET OATH wins the Kentucky Oaks at odds of 4-1, paying $10.80 to win.  Keys $39.40 exacta over 2nd choice Nest, and hits $616.80 Trifecta for a $1 payout.  All given out on the sheet, the only play for Friday, Oaks Day.

Saturday, May 7th – Kentucky Derby 148 Card

1st race: $11.00 Winner (2nd choice) with $94.10 Trifecta recommended.

No play/selection race 2

3rd race: $8.00 Winner (Top choice)

No play/selection race 4

5th race: $4.20 Winner (Top choice)

6th race: Missed $75 winner

7th race: $3.40 Winner (Top choice)

8th race: $9.60 Winner (5th choice)

9th race: Missed $13 winner

10th race: $4.00 Winner (Top choice)

11th race: $170.80 Exacta recommended with $16.20 winner (4th choice) over top choice 9-1 shot Mira Mission who lost by a long neck.

12th race: Missed 80-1 KY Derby winner Rich Strike (why don’t I bet names!?!).  Top choice Mo Donegal ran 5th.

No plays/selections races 13 and 14.   Skeptical? Check out AGOS founder Rich Nilsen’s Analysis_KYDerby_2022

Actual winning tickets from players who used Nilsen’s sheet:

$10.80 winner Secret Oath

 

$170 exacta 5 times!

Nilsen’s Expert Kentucky Derby Analysis w/wagers – NOW ONLINE

Rich Nilsen qualifies at Monmouth for his 16th NHC berth

Order the complete analysis of the 148th Kentucky Derby with Nilsen’s professional selections for the big race.

There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing KY Derby card.  Nilsen’s goal has always been to provide an affordable sheet for any racing fan on one of the biggest racing days of the year.  BONUS!  Analysis and wagers for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday!

18x NHC Qualifier & AGOS founder Rich Nilsen will have his KY Derby Analysis with top picks, spot plays & wagering strategies

  • Spot Plays w/wagers
  • Stakes selections on the card
  • Pace Chart for every race at Belmont Park (bonus!) on Saturday
  • Expert Commentary on the top KY Derby contenders
  • Expert picks with wagering strategies for the KY Oaks (bonus!)

As always, KY Derby Day is a tremendous betting card, one of the best of year.  This is the Expert Kentucky Derby Analysis you need on the big race day!

Order now at the affordable AGOS price of only $14.97.  

Nilsen’s KY Derby Analysis w/expert wagering strategies – click the button below to Order:

 

Derby 148 Analysis with Wagering Strategies & Best Bet Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Nilsen Crushes KY Oaks (bonus play) with 4-1 overlay SECRET OATH, the exacta and the trifecta! Here was his write-up:

KENTUCKY OAKS – FRIDAY, MAY 6, 2022

Churchill Downs, race 11, post time 5:51 ET

Expected Pace: Fast pace is likely in this grueling 9 furlong classic. Echo Zulu and Yuugiri will both flash good early foot and ensure honest fractions. Several other runners will be in close pursuit, including the morning line favorite Nest.

Top Selection: # 1 SECRET OATH (6/1) – will get a favorable, ground-saving trip from the rail post and also figures to get first jump on the closers in this large field for the Kentucky Oaks. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee suffered a brutal trip last time out as one of the main contenders in the Arkansas Derby, but prior to that, she was dominating her own sex.  She’ll appreciate the return to this spot with new rider Luis Saez aboard (a major upgrade). Look for her to get D.Wayne his first Oaks win since 1990 and add to his historic resume.

2nd Selection: # 4 Nest (5/2) enters in razor sharp form and will relish a wet track if the main course is a mess late in the day.

3rd Selection: # 2 Nostalgic (15/1) closed powerfully into a slow pace in the Gazelle S. at Aqueduct last time out and is bred to love the 9 furlong distance.  Also bred to move up on wet going. 15/1 would be an absurd price on the Mott trainee with Jose Ortiz in the irons.

4th Selection: # 13 Shahama (15/1) undefeated Munnings filly has been training exceptionally well for new trainer Todd Pletcher.  Drew a tough post but could still run a big one at square odds.

Wagering Strategies: Bet #1 Secret Oath to Win.  Exacta box 1-2-4-13 ($24 cost for every $2 increment).  Trifecta partwheel 1 with 2, 4, 7, 13 with ALL ($44 cost for $1 increments).  Trifecta partwheel 1 with ALL with 2, 4, 7, 13  ($22 cost for $0.50 increments).

 

 

Rich Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournaments and an 18-time qualifier to the $3 million National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

 

Testimonials About Past Analysis

“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit [Belmont Stakes 2018]!! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry… I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey!! Let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash!  Thanks Again, ” ~ Wayne M.

“Rich, thanks for your terrific analysis of the Gulfstream Park [Rainbow Six 3/31/18].  I was able to hit the Pick 6 [paid $9,018 for twenty cents!].   Anyone out there who bets horses would be well advised to download your sheet on every major race day… thanks again for a job well done.” ~ Evan C.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

Get The Wizard for the two big race days – KY Oaks and KY Derby

Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar – Spot Plays w/ Wagers, Top Selections and Analysis

Rich Nilsen 2016 BC Paddock18x NHC Qualifier Rich Nilsen Offers up Pace Scenarios, Spot Plays w/ Wagers, Top Selections and Analysis for BOTH days of the Breeders’ Cup in ONE report.

Nilsen, who has had some monster days in the past with his major race selection sheets, is back for both days of this year’s Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.   Included in his report are top selections for all 5 Breeders’ Cup stakes on Friday and all 9 stakes on Saturday (all 14 Breeders’ Cup races).  Includes commentary on all the contenders listed, plus spot play wagers.

BONUS: Free pace chart for every race on both days at Del Mar!

You will also receive Nilsen’s expert pace analysis, which is often the key to selecting the winner.   Nilsen has 4 Spot Plays with wagering strategies to attack these races hard.

Get every Breeders’ Cup race for BOTH days (Friday & Saturday) in one sheet!  Download instantly to any type of device. Only $19.97 for all 14 Breeders’ Cup races + bonus pace chart for the full cards on Fri. and Sat.

Download today to any device 

 

 

Highlights from Previous Breeders’ Cup Spot Play Winners!

$29.40 Sprint Spot Play Winner Trinniberg with Cold $203.40 Exacta!

$15.80 Turf Sprint Spot Play Winner Mizdirection, keying $1,757.65 Pick-4 wager!

$40.40 Spot Play Winner Work All Week with $1,064.70 Trifecta!

$13.00 F&M Turf Spot Play winner Dayathespa

$16.40 Turf Sprint Winner Bobby’s Kitten

$64.80 Exacta with Main Sequence over Flintshire in the Breeders’ Cup Turf

The list goes on and on!

2020: Several winners with the monster longshot score of $37.60 winner Audarya the highlight!  Here was the write-up on the monster $199.20 cold exacta in the 2020 Filly & Mar Turf:

1st- # 11 AUDARYA (12/1) was boxed in a little bit during the stretch run in the Arc and finished well on her wrong lead in straight.  She never really seemed comfortable racing along the inside behind the two speed horses, but, despite that, ran very well and nearly won the prestigious race.

In her prior start she was an upset winner in France, giving her trainer a third career win in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet Stakes.  There was a gap of about 4 lengths to the show horse.  The place horse was Ambition who came back to run a decent 5th in the Arc.

Her top trainer in France, James Fanshawe, is ending a 30-year wait for a runner at the Breeders’ Cup.  Fanshawe has trained the likes of Soviet Song and The Tin Man, among other Group 1 winners.

On her latest effort at Longchamp, Fanshawe said, “Audarya ran an excellent race, but there wasn’t much coverage of it afterwards. Most of the attention seemed to focus on the winner Tarnawa and Jessica Harrington’s filly Alpine Star who finished second.”

She’s a major player based on her recent form.

2nd- # 6 RUSHING FALL (5/2) – Has won 11 of 14 lifetime and banked over $2.5M.  She was last seen finishing in under 34 seconds when she gamely captured the G1 Diana at Saratoga.  Trainer Chad Brown has been working her every 7 days since that win in preparation for this start at a track where she is 5 for 6 lifetime.

She’s unproven at the distance but Brown has won many times with this type of stretch out turf runner.  Brown has also won this BC race 4 times…

About Nilsen’s Analysis

In this comprehensive yet concise report, I provide selections for all 14 Breeders’ Cup races for both days, as well as pace scenario analysis which is absolutely vital for predicting the outcomes of these events.

Spot Plays are my best bets and key wagering horses for the big weekend. Picking your spots is key to profiting on the races, especially when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup. The opportunities are plentiful but you improve your chances by selecting key spot plays and focusing most of your bets on those plays.

Set aside a budget for these two days and be sure to have plenty of ammunition for the bigger of the two days, Saturday. Best of luck!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rich Nilsen caught the horse racing bug at a young age when his father took him to the racetracks in New York. He eventually attended the University of Louisville Equine Business Program with the goal of making a career in the horse racing industry.

Nilsen has worked the past 28+ years in the equine industry, serving most of those years as the Marketing Director for Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com, the Official Wagering Site of the Kentucky Derby.

Nilsen managed the successful Players’ Pool syndicate, which pooled funds from the account wagering members to go after large Pick-6 carryovers. During Nilsen’s leadership, the Players’ Pool produced a significant profit for the members over the course of seven years. One of the best hits was when the Players’ Pool took down half of the Pick-6 pool on Kentucky Derby Day 2007, with a gross return of over $500,000.  The Pool had several other hits over $250,000.

The $3 Million National Handicapping Championship (NHC) is the premier horse racing tournament in the nation. It is basically horse racing’s version of the World Series of Poker, with the main difference being that players cannot buy their way into the NHC. Players can only win their way in via tournaments held throughout the country. Nilsen is one of the top participants in the history of the event, having qualified 18 times. He is a dual qualifier for the 2022 NHC and a member of the NHC Players’ Committee. He was the first player, and one of only a handful, to finish in the top 10 at the NHC twice.

 

Wizard’s Full-card Analysis + Betting Strategies for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup

Can the Wizard top last year’s tremendous performance hitting 6 TOP winners including Glass Slippers ($22.40) & Best Bet Tarnawa ($11.40).  He closed the day out with a $45.10 exacta in the Classic with his top 2 picks.  The Wizard, America’s #1 public handicapper, has been helping players cash more tickets since 1987.

Wizard’s Package Includes:

9 BC events and 3 undercard races.

Expert wagers for each and every race – all 12

A careful study of many video replays

Extensive trip and track bias notes is what the Wizard utilizes to make his selections & carefully plotted out wagering strategies. This combo package is only $50.00

 

Nilsen’s Full-card KY Derby Coverage with Wagering Strategies

Get the complete analysis of Kentucky Derby 147 card with Nilsen’s professional selections and wagering strategies for the big race.

Nilsen covers all 14 races on Derby Day and includes his written analysis for the Run for the Roses!  Along with trifecta strategies for the KY Derby, Nilsen has xx best bets (spot plays) with wagers on the day.

As always, this is a tremendous betting card, one of the best of year!

17x NHC Qualifier & AGOS founder Rich Nilsen has his KY Derby Analysis with top picks, x spot plays & wagering strategies now available

  • xx Spot Plays w/wagers
  • Full card selections for all 14 races
  • Pace Analysis for every race
  • Expert Commentary on the Kentucky Derby
  • Top Derby picks with wagering strategies

Download it now.  xx pages, PDF, only $17.97

Nilsen’s KY Derby Analysis w/expert wagering strategies

 

 

Derby 147 Analysis with Wagering Strategies & Best Bet Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Rich Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournaments and a 17-time qualifier to the $3 million National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing KY Derby card.

 

"


Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit [Belmont Stakes 2018]!! 

I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry... I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had "dream trips", But Gormley didn't want to go that far... Hey!! Let's give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00... Hope you had a good day & made some cash!  Thanks Again, " 


Wayne M. 

Horseplayer in FL

"


Rich, thanks for your terrific analysis of the Gulfstream Park [Rainbow Six 3/31/18]. I was able to hit the Pick 6 [paid $9,018 for twenty cents!].   Anyone out there who bets horses would be well advised to download your sheet on every major race day... thanks again for a job well done.


Evan C.
Horse owner and fan in KY

"


Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.


Kelly S.


Industry Profile: Trainer King Leatherbury, The King of Maryland

Editor’s Note:  I had the good fortune of working for trainer King Leatherbury one summer at both Pimlico and Laurel.  Although I worked on the backstretch for him, I was also doing a college internship in which I analyzed his accounting ledgers dating back a couple of decades to determine whether or  not his owners made owners.  Incredibly, they actually did.  An article was written, and with the help of editor Mark Simon, it was published in the now-defunct Thoroughbred Times (April 24, 1994).  ~ Rich Nilsen

King Leatherbury knows how he wants his training career to be defined. He knows how he would like to be remembered.

“If I wanted something on my tombstone,” he said, “it would just be, ‘He won races.’ ”

Leatherbury, 87, has won races all right. He ranked fourth all-time with 6,455 victories when he was inducted into the National Museum of Racing’s Hall of Fame in 2015, the ultimate exclamation point to a career that has spanned parts of seven decades. He currently ranks fifth on the all-time list of leading trainers by wins with more than 6,500.

The Maryland native stayed close to his roots in winning at least 100 races per season for 26 consecutive years from 1972 to 1997. He won at least 200 races every year from 1974 to 1984. He won more often than any other Thoroughbred trainer in the nation in 1976 and 1977.

Business boomed even as he competed against the likes of [trainers] Bud Delp, Dick Dutrow, and John Tammaro, a group so formidable they became known as the “Big Four.”   Continue reading about legendary horseman King Leatherbury.

Handicapping Tip of the Day #64 – Red Flags on Rag Tag

Handicapping Tip of the Day

by Rich Nilsen

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

On a recent Wednesday card at Tampa Bay Downs (Dec. 9, 2020), the 2nd race of the day featured a nice field of maiden special weight runners going 6 1/2 furlongs.  The 3/2 morning line favorite in the race was the Eoin Harty-trained Rag Tag, a three year old who sported good form and superior numbers (speed figures, class ratings, BRIS Prime Power rating, etc.).  The well-bred colt from famed Calumet Farm also was coming in off a solid workout pattern.  What wasn’t there to like?

In Rag Tag’s case, quite a bit.  In his brief, nine-race career the colt had been beaten at short odds SIX times.  Three of those times he was the heavy favorite, as he was expected to be on this sunny Florida afternoon.

The most dangerous ‘Professional Maidens’ for chalk lovers (bettors who like to wager on favorites) are those that have numerous changes applied by their trainer(s) and continue to fail.  Rag Tag was a shining example:

  • He had raced at four different distances, from 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
  • He had tried the dirt, the turf, and the slop.
  • He had been ridden by six different jockeys, including top jocks Luis Saez and John Velasquez, Jr.
  • He had run with blinkers and without blinkers.
  • He had dropped in class and lost.
  • He had attempted five different racetracks.
  • He had never gained ground AND passed a horse in the stretch…ever.
  • Finally, he had raced for three different barns (Pletcher, Sisterson, and Harty)

All this in a 9-race career.  When the morning line favorite has been beaten, especially recently, at short odds, that is the first neon light to the handicapper to dig deeper.  Has this horse been in races where he or she should have won previously and didn’t?  When there is a lot of evidence pointing out that this horse is a hanger and lacks the will to win, it can open up a big opportunity for the horseplayer.  It doesn’t mean you’re going to pick the winner, but it does guarantee that you get extra value on your play(s).

Rag Tag went off at 70 cents on the dollar and was a closing 2nd to the lukewarm 2nd choice, a lightly raced Monmouth Park shipper.  He’ll got into his next race with a record of 10-0-5-1 and he’ll be heavily bet again.

Did you miss this Handicapping Tip of the Day?

Horse Racing Tip of the Day – the Fewer this the better…

Horse Racing Tip of the Day – Evaluating Layoff Horses