Saratoga Pace Chart for Friday, August 26

August 25, 2022 by Leave a Comment

Tom’s d’Etat Confirmed for PegasusPace Makes the Race!

Friday is Travers Day Eve at Saratoga. Utilize this complimentary pace chart to help you envision how each of the races will set up at the Spa on Friday, August 26, 2022.   Understanding how the race will set up is critical to your handicapping success!

Always remember to wager within your comfort level and pick your spots. Best of luck!

SARATOGA – FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022
Race 1 Expected Pace Leaders Stalkers Mid-Pack Closers Unknown
6.50 Furlongs / Dirt Very Fast 3-1-5 4 2
Race 2
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Honest 1 7-4 3-2-1A 5 6
Race 3
9.00 Furlongs / Dirt Honest 2-3 1 4 5
Race 4
7.00 Furlongs / Dirt Unknown 1 10 3-9 2-4-5-6-7-8
Race 5
9.00 Furlongs / Dirt Fast 1-2 4 5 3
Race 6
5.50 Furlongs / Turf Fast 2 5-6 11-8-7-14-4 1-3-16-13-12-15-9-10
Race 7
6.50 Furlongs / Dirt Very Fast 1-3-5 2 6 4
Race 8
8.50 Furlongs / Inner Turf Honest/Fast 6-8 1-10-4 3-12-7-11 2-5-9
Race 9
7.00 Furlongs / Dirt Honest/Fast 11 2-4-10-8 3-1-7 9-12-6-5
Race 10
8.50 Furlongs / Turf Fast 3-2 9-6-5 7-10 4-8-1
Race 11
8 Furlongs / Inner Turf Modest 2-1 6-11-10 3-5-7 9-4 8
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Complimentary Pace Report for Opening Day at Kentucky Downs

September 4, 2021 by Leave a Comment

Predicting the pace of the race is a critical aspect of successful handicapping.  Today, I present a pace chart which breaks down where each runner is expected to be during the running of the race – on opening day at Kentucky Downs.

Obviously, starting breaks and jockey tendencies/decisions play a major role in how the race plays out.  But put the percentages in your favor BEFORE the race by anticipating how the race will be run.  From there, you can decide which runners may benefit and which may be compromised.  It can often be the deciding factor between choosing your preferred horse in the race.

 

Sunday, 9/5/2021
Kentucky Downs
Race 1 Expected Pace Leaders Stalkers Mid-Pack Closers Unknown/FTS
12.0 Furlongs / Turf Slow 7 3-5-9 2-8-6-4 10-1
Race 2
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Unknown 2 12-14-16 11-4-13-8 1-3-5-6-7-9-10-15
Race 3
8 Furlongs / Turf Very Fast 3-6-5 8-14-7 12-1-2-10 4-11-9-15-16-13
Race 4
8 Furlongs / Turf Modest 6-7 4-9 5-1-10-8 3 2-1A
Race 5
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest 3 9-4-11 13-14-1-10 8-7-6-2-12-5
Race 6
8 Furlongs / Turf Slow 4 6-10-2 7-3-9-8 1-5
Race 7
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest *14 5-12-13 7-11-15-10 8-2-3-9-16-1-6 4
Race 8
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Unknown 6 13-3-7 14-12-8-1 2-4-5-9-10-11-15
Race 9
10.50 Furlongs / Turf Slow 6-7-5 1-4 8-3-2 9
Race 10
10.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 8 4-1-9 12-7-11-3 6-2-5-10
Race 11
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 10 14-15-13 3-11-5-9 12-1-2-6-8-16-4 7
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Handicapping Tip of the Day #46 – When 4/5 is Value

November 29, 2018 by Leave a Comment

Handicapping Tip of the Day

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

by Rich Nilsen

Day two of the Tampa Bay Downs winter meeting (Nov. 28, 2018) was pretty chalky with lots of favorites winning.  In the 3rd race on Wednesday a second time starter named Russian Roulette was 3/2 on the morning line.  According to the Ultimate PPs, her trainer Monte Thomas was a dismal 4% with second time starters, but he had plenty of ‘live’ runners among them with one-third finishing in the money.   He is also known for being very good with two year olds, in general, another fact offsetting that low win rate. There is a lot of debate over profits and win-rate in horse race betting. Horse racing fans can use the twi-promo-code.com to wager on the horse they prefer regardless of win rate or profits earned.

Russian Roulette looked like a stand-out in this field for several reasons.  First, she was coming off a nose lose in her debut at the same claiming level of maiden $16,000 but that effort came at Gulfstream Park West, a tougher circuit and one that produces a lot of winners at Tampa.  Secondly, she had earned a 70 BRIS Speed Rating in that performance, which was equal to the BRIS Par for the race. BRIS handicapping information can be found here.

Par represents the average speed rating for the winners at this level of competition for the track in question. When handicapping maiden races, it can be a wise decision to compare the Speed Rating Par to the ratings earned by the entries in their recent races.  In doing so, you can sometimes find opportunities like the one presented at Tampa Bay Downs.

Here was Tuesday’s field for race 3 at Tampa:

#1 My Heart Dominus – best figure of 38 in three starts.

#2 Valley Girl – best figure of 62 in three starts.

#3 Russian Roulette – ran a 70 when second in debut.

#4 Quickandwildcoco  – ran a career best 48 five starts back.

#5 Fooli – firster for 3% trainer with debut runners.

#6 Phyliss Driller – 0 for 6 maiden who ran a 71 on the synthetic track at Presque Isle Downs.  Her best sprint figure was a 60 in four attempts.

#7 My Little Rosie – improved to a 26 in her second career start.

Needless to say, this was an awful field.  The only two horses that looked like they had any type of chance against Russian Roulette were #2 Valley Girl and # 6 Phyliss Driller.  The problem with the #6 was two fold – she was a Presser which is the wrong running style in Tampa Bay Downs’ sprints, and her only good race was around two turns.  The #2 had three opportunities to run at or near Par, and she had not been close.  Eight points off Par is significant.

To make matters worse for her competition, Russian Roulette also figured to be the controlling speed in this field, as none had shown any type of early foot to challenge her.

So here you had a horse that was faster than everyone in the field, and the field consisted mostly of proven, bad horses.  She was the controlling speed over a speed favoring oval.  Despite her low maiden claiming class level, this daughter of Soldat deserved to be no higher than 2/5, and 1/5 would not have been unreasonable given her credentials against this field.

To make a profit in this game you have take the opportunities that are presented to you.  4/5 was a gift on Russian Roulette, and she rewarded her supporters with a 16-length drubbing of her six rivals.

copyright 2018 Equibase.com all rights reserved

 

Have You Seen Our Other Handicapping Tips?

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Nilsen’s Full-card Belmont Stakes Analysis 2017

June 8, 2017 by Leave a Comment

Download Rich Nilsen’s Belmont analysis here

with Wagering Strategies & Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Get the complete analysis of the 2017 Belmont Stakes with Nilsen’s value play selections for the big race.  There may not be a Triple Crown on the line, but just like last year, this is a tremendous betting race.   Speaking of last year, Nilsen gave out $34.80 winner Creator as his top pick as well as the huge exacta with Destin that returned over $260!

Three weeks ago with his Preakness day analysis, Nilsen gave out several winners including a $21.60 Spot Play (Best Bet) on the undercard!

Founder of AGameofSkill.com, Nilsen is the winner of 6 major handicapping tournament and a 13-time qualifier to the multi million-dollar National Handicapping Championship (NHC).  There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing Belmont Stakes card.

This sheet contains:

Top selections for all 13 races

Sophisticated Pace Scenario for all 13 races

Spot Plays (Best Bets) on the undercard w/ wagering strategies

In-depth Analysis of the Belmont Stakes.  Two Value plays keyed in Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta strategies.

Get all 13 races on the Belmont card.  Download now for only $15.97 to any device.

Buy Now

Last Year’s Write-Up on TOP SELECTION CREATOR

CREATOR lost his best chance when he broke from an inside post in the field of 20 and encountered a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby.  Prior to that he was ultra impressive, sweeping by the field in the G1 Arkansas Derby.  If you want to see an incredible maiden win, just go back and what this colt’s Feb. 27 score at Oaklawn, and you’ll again see the type of late kick this guy possesses.  Trainer Steve Asmussen has the son of Tapit working well for this rebound race, including a blowout 4f drill over the Belmont training track. Bred to run all day, Creator will drop back under new rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. and come rolling late at a big price. 

Testimonial from the 2017 Sheet:

“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit !! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry.

I think  #9 meantime had enough speed to compromise Irish War Cry. Have feeling that if he wasn’t in the race, Irish War Cry might have been loose on the lead ,and had enough to win.  I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey !! let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash !!
 
Thanks Again, 
Wayne M.
Filed Under: Kentucky Derby | Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Handicapping Tip #39 – Pace Makes the Race

May 24, 2017 by Leave a Comment

Handicapping Tip of the Day

by Rich Nilsen

On select major days throughout the year, I offer my professional analysis of the big race, e.g. Preakness, and the undercard races at that track.   This past Saturday I did the 14 races on the Pimlico Preakness card, which is always a great day of wagering.  One of the key aspects of my report is the pace scenario analysis for each race.  If you don’t understand the expected pace of the race, it can be very difficult to select the winner or the top finishers.  How the race sets up is critical to predicting the outcome.

In turf sprints I almost always emphasize early speed, especially if it is a 5 furlong grass race.  In analyzing the pace of race #2 on Saturday (May 20, 2017) one horse jumped out to be as the lone speed.  #1A FLIGHT CREW was 20/1 on the morning line, enough to scare off many horseplayers.  After determining that he was probably the early pace setter, I needed to look at the overall early pace to determine if he could “hold on.”  Was there enough other early speed to put pressure on him at some critical early juncture of the race?  I came to the conclusion that the answer was “no.”  It looked like a moderate pace, so now I was very intrigued with this longshot and dug deeper.

Pace makes the race

He was the son of Elusive Quality, who has sired many good horses sprinting on the law, and out of a mare by Danzig (enough said).  The pedigree was certainly there.  This was only the 2nd career grass start for Flight Crew.  In his only other attempt, he pressed a fast pace (+17 +19 on the BRIS Race Shape figures) while going 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course.  Despite that, and breaking from a poor outside post, he still ended up defeating half the field, finishing 5th.   He was trained by 15% local horseman Hugh McMahon.  What else did one need to pull the trigger on a big longshot?

Pace makes the race.  Flight Crew did not get the initial lead but by the time the field hit the far turn of this turf dash, he was in complete control.  At odds of 9-1, he opened up under Katie Davis and kept the field at bay down the lane. Scores like this are very sweet indeed.

Make sure you analyze the pace of every race you wager.  It’s the first step to selecting many winners.

GOT REBATES?  Learn more here

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OptixEQ: The Future of Handicapping – Part I

April 20, 2016 by 2 Comments

It’s an exciting time to be a horseplayer with a wealth of data and information available for whichever handicapping tools fit your needs. But in this information age of big data, sports analytics, and high-level algorithmic approaches to gambling, the horse-racing industry has lagged far behind—until now. Enter OptixEQ, an equine analytics handicapping platform that is sure to take your game to the next level.

OptixEQ is a brand-new, unique handicapping package that presents relevant data in a dynamic, integrative, and multidimensional way. All of the elements of traditional handicapping are factored in—i.e., class, form, speed, and pace—but the data is combined into a platform that is more in line with the statistical analysis done at the highest levels of professional sports, fantasy sports, and gaming—and that is because the team behind OptixEQ consists of full-time horseplayers with backgrounds in statistical modeling and software development.

OptixEQ was designed for horseplayers by horseplayers with the sole purpose of creating a handicapping product that would save players countless hours of having to study the Form, do pace analysis, create speed figures, and watch replays. This vision has been realized in OptixEQ, which integrates all of these handicapping elements in a visually dynamic way.

The OptixEQ platform consists of three major components: OptixPLOT, OptixNOTES, and OptixGRID.

 

OptixPLOT: Not Your Grandfather’s Pace Analyzer

The old adage, “Pace makes the race,” will take on a whole new meaning once you start using OptixPLOT, the new gold-standard when it comes to high-level pace analysis. OptixPLOT is a multidimensional, data-visualization tool that allows horseplayers to instantly assess the pace dynamics of a race, while at the same time, accurately portraying the overall shape of the race, so that users can easily isolate lone-frontrunners, strong closers, or tactical stalk-and-pounce types.

The purpose of the OptixPLOT is to give horseplayers a true sense of how the race will be run based on the relative early speed, pace velocity, and finishing ability of the horses in the race. Horses show up on the graph where they are expected to be at the first and second calls, while their finishing ability is represented geometrically, thus creating a multidimensional display of the most sophisticated pace analyzer available to handicappers.

The OptixPLOT can also be changed using a horse’s recency or “today’s” surface and/or distance parameters.

Here are three different OptixPLOTs, showcasing three key running styles: lone-frontrunners, deep closers, and stalk-and-pounce types (note: the larger the square, the stronger the finishing ability of the horse):

Lone-Frontrunners:

OptixEQ-LoneFRv2

 

Deep Closers:

OptixEQ-DeepCloser-ver

 

Stalk-and Pounce Types:
OptixEQ-DeepCloserv2

 

For more information on how to interpret OptixPLOT, you can watch the videos and read the FAQ on the product information page here.

But there’s  more to OptixEQ.  Tomorrow we take a look at OptixEQ Notes.

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Pace Predictor Forecast for Travers Stakes day 2014

August 23, 2014 by Leave a Comment

Pace Predictor: These are not selections but rather forecasts for the anticipated pace scenarios in select races at Saratoga today, Saturday August 23, 2014.  Understanding the race shape is critical for successfully handicapping the races, because how the pace sets up early often determines how things will shake out late. A horse separated by ” / ” indicates possible lone speed.

Let us know how you think we did with the pace predictions in the comments below after today’s races.  Best of luck!

Saratoga, August 15, 2014

R3) # 6 / 2-1

R4) # 7-8-6

R5) # 5-1-4-9

R6) # 4-5-12-3

R7) # 6 / 3-1-10

R8) # 7 / 4-2

R9) # 1-6

R10) # 6-7

R11) # 6 / 1-4-9-5

R12) # 2 / 7-6-10-3

R13) # 3-6-9

R14) # 6-2-10

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Pace Predictor Forecast for Friday at Saratoga

August 15, 2014 by Leave a Comment

Pace Predictor: These are not selections but rather forecasts for the anticipated pace scenarios in select races at Saratoga today, Friday August 15, 2014.  Understanding the race shape is critical for successfully handicapping the races, because how the pace sets up early often determines how things will shake out late.

Let us know how you think we did with the pace predictions in the comments below after today’s races.  Best of luck!

Saratoga, August 15, 2014

R3) # 1 – 2- 3

R4) # 1 – 2

R5) # 1 – 8 – 3

R8) # 2 – 7- 1

R9) # 2 – 3- 5

R10) # 6 – 3- 7

AGameofSkill.com

 

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Handicapping Tips #4 – Pace Makes the Race

July 22, 2014 by Leave a Comment

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

Handicapping Tip of the Day – Pace Makes the Race

One of the first, if not the first thing, you should be doing when handicapping a race is to try to figure out the anticipated pace scenario.  Which horse or horses figure to vie for the early lead?  Is one of those speed horses faster than the others?  You can use excellent pace figures such as the ratings Brisnet puts out, or you can look at the raw fractional times to figure out the typical 1/4 and 1/2 mile time that each horse Horse racing notes: Brickyard Ride set for Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Marruns.   Additionally, some horses want to be up on the lead regardless of superior early speed of other rivals, and they will ‘use themselves’ in the process to vie for the front end.  Needless to say, that can affect all of the horses involved.  Some jockeys are better gate riders than others, and it is helpful to know the riders’ traits on your circuit.

After you analyze the pace situation, you can then determine which runner(s) is at an advantage based on the makeup of this race.  That’s a big edge over the public that skips this vital step in the handicapping process or does so haphazardly.

~ Rich Nilsen

Did you miss? Handicapping Tip # 3 – Every Runner Has This

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The Pace Can Compromise the Best in the Field

February 25, 2013 by Leave a Comment

A look at the 2013 Fountain of Youth Stakes

By Art Parker

The 2013 edition of the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park proved to be an exciting race that yielded two conclusions. The first conclusion is a confirmation that quite often the pace makes the race and even the best horse in a field is subject to disappointment when the pace is not right.

Gulfstream Park paddockMajestic Hussar popped out of the Gulfstream gate and seized the lead proving to be the quickest of several early speed types. The leader held an advantage of a length or so over the balance of the first flight, which included heavy favorite, Violence. That first flight was clearly running away from all the others in the early stages of the race. Just after Majestic Hussar posted a blistering 45 2/5 half mile you could see the others in the first flight were slipping. At that time the rider of Violence, Javier Castellano, realized that the leader may get away and he was the only one with a shot of stopping a runaway train. Castellano got busy on Violence, who confronted the leader and eventually took the lead when leaving the far turn.

The time for ¾ of a mile was an astonishing 1:08 4/5, a time that is much too hot for even the best older handicap horses, much less a 3 year old in the month of February. Castellano had no choice, in my opinion, but the move drained enough energy out of the leader where he could not hold off the fast charging winner named Orb. Even though the race did not have a speed duel on the front end, the pace made the race for a closer.

Besides confirming that pace can make a race the second conclusion is one regarding a specific horse. The most impressive horse in the race was Violence, who finished second by only a half length. The highly regard Violence turned out to be everything he was cracked up to be.  For those of you who get knee deep in handicapping the Kentucky Derby months in advance I suggest you put a ring around Violence. He was compromised about half way around and had to go all out too soon. The key element is his third quarter, which I calculated at 22 4/5 or 23 flat at worst. Violence is exceptionally well bred and probably has blue blood in his veins. A son of Medaglia d’Oro from the Gone West mare Violent Beauty, Violence is bred to run all day long. He was 3 for 3 coming into the Fountain of Youth and would still be undefeated had he not been compromised quite so much in the race.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Unfortunately, this tremendous effort from Violence took its toll.  The talented 3yo was diagnosed with a fractured sesamoid and is off the Triple Crown trail.

Filed Under: Handicapping 101, Kentucky Derby | Triple Crown, Learn to Handicap Tagged With: , , , , , , ,