A Profitable Idea for Trips and Trainers

January 14, 2014 by 1 Comment
Post Parade Gulfstream Park maiden race

STS at Gulfstream Park.
Copyright Agameofskill.com

by Art Parker, author of “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns”

Now is the time of year to pay attention to maidens, particularly what we all call the First Time Starter (FTS). It doesn’t mean you bet on them, necessarily. It is a great time to observe them especially when they become Second Time Starters (STS). The majority of unraced horses are no longer two years old. Those two year olds remind me of human teenagers; young, stupid and unpredictable. The bottom line is that more unraced horses now have enough maturity to start racing and a poor performance is not totally attributable to youth.

The overwhelming majority of those in the FTS category fall into the STS category because only a limited number of horses can win, obviously. But those that move into the STS category often have excuses due to a bad trip in their first race. If you in any way depend upon trip handicapping or believe that horses can have excuses, then these races are the ones where you have pad and pencil ready. For the next few months there will be tons of maiden races that will yield great trip information that is invaluable.

A long time ago a coach told my football team not to underestimate our opponent in the second week of the season. “Most improvement in competitors comes between their first and second games,” he said. I believe it is true in horse racing, or at least the opportunity for the most improvement is between the first and second races of a runner’s career.

If you accept the premise that the second race may demonstrate the best improvement and a horse had a rough trip in his/her first race, then you are well on your way to cashing a ticket. Maybe.

After you made the trip notes and you feel sure that a horse is going to improve then you must look in the other notes to find the icing for the cake. The other notes tell you if the trainer is good with those we call STS, and if they are, what is their normal plan of attack?

Last week I decided to rummage through all of my Keeneland files looking for those trainers good with the STS. The following very recognizable and successful names have enjoyed multiple winners with STS at Keeneland over the last few years: Rusty Arnold, Wayne Catalano, Al Stall, Jr., Eddie Kenneally, Ken McPeek, Graham Motion, Todd Pletcher, Dale Romans, Tom Proctor and Mike Stidham. I would be proud to have any of these guys train for me. But most important is understanding how these guys do it. What are the patterns to their winning second time starters?

All but two wins from all of these trainers with STS at Keeneland came after the horse was off for at least 25 days. Many of these did not run after their debut effort for at least 35-40 days. In other words, they did not rush their horses back to the track. I couldn’t help but jump in to my Woodbine file to check out the trainer, who in my opinion, is the best STS trainer in the business-Reade Baker. I noticed the same patience is exercised by Baker.

While each horse may be different, the best trainers regardless of their record with FTS, must obviously take the time to analyze, plan and determine the very best course of action with great patience for STS. An awful lot can be learned from a horse in its first race even if the trip is a clean one.

Now let’s put it all together. A FTS has a difficult trip and you have it noted, waiting for a possible play when he/she comes back. You know it is worth the note because the trainer has a good record with STS. Also, the trainer does not rush his horses. When the day comes you make sure it all adds up. And if it does, well then you have the makings of a good spot play.

And when you cash a ticket after all of this, you realize that the practice of handicapping can be worthwhile…and is a skill-based game.

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Horse Racing Fans Need to Step Up to the Plate

June 24, 2013 by Leave a Comment

by Art Parker

About the only time I go to a track is when I am on vacation, have a business trip or visit my daughter in the D.C. area. I’m definitely part of the growing Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW) legion of players. Last week I took a few days off and visited my daughter, who lives on the Maryland side of our nation’s capital. She invited me to come since it was around Father’s Day time and, of course, she sweetened the invitation with the one line I love to here, “Dad, we can go to the track one day.”

My daughter, now 32 years old, was taught how to read a Racing Form when she was in the third grade and she is a good handicapper. Even though we are separated by 700 miles we “play the races together” online and in online tournaments. I can say that the love of horse racing is a family affair, so you can imagine the priority we place on going to the track together whenever possible.

Delaware Park walking ring, horses. June 2013. Photo by Art Parker for AGameofskill.com

copyright Art Parker & AllStarPress.com

When I visit her in the summer we go to Delaware Park (DEL). It is not too far from the D.C. area, and if not for the ridiculous road tolls in Maryland, it would be a delightful trip especially when the weather is nice. We went to DEL on the Saturday before Father’s Day and the weather was picture perfect. It was a great day to be outside and we decided to hang out in the picnic area. DEL is a beautiful track in a beautiful setting.

“Racing missed the original sports television era and then has tried to play ‘catch up’ ever since. It has been forced to fight a massive swell of casino operations that have covered the landscape far beyond the borders of Nevada where all of that started.”

We shared the track that day with many others. I don’t know if there was a special promotional day or not, but there was a ton of kids there. You could tell it was a day for mom and dad, or grandpa and grandma, to take kids to the track.  The track has a great outdoor area with plenty of “climbing” equipment that young kids love, which located next to the picnic area at the clubhouse turn. For those with kids it is a good area to watch the races especially when the race goes around two turns.

One could also tell that many in attendance were “rookies,” not just because of the kids but because of the long lines at the tellers and how slow they moved. It is safe to assume that many in the teller lines were rookies because the self service machines had no waiting lines.

For one race I strolled up to the fence hoping to see my horse win with ease, which didn’t happen. The man standing next to me was in a bad way and said with disgust, “I’ve never seen so many rookies in my life.” I asked him what he meant just to make sure I knew since he directed the line toward me. “All of these damn rookies get in the way, hold up the lines, and they probably brought all of these kids,” he growled. I just nodded primarily to acknowledge the fellow and avoid an argument. I came close to chewing his butt out, but I thought better of it and remained silent.

I thought it was a great day. I was glad to see the rookies and I was glad to see the kids. We need them. We need new enthusiasts. We need kids to come to the track and have fun and then pester their folks about coming back again.

Racing has not been wise when it comes to fan development. Racing missed the original sports television era and then has tried to play ‘catch up’ ever since. It has been forced to fight a massive swell of casino operations that have covered the landscape far beyond the borders of Nevada where all of that started. In addition to those near mindless games found in a casino, horse racing has had to fight the completely mindless games called lotteries. The fight is ongoing and it is a tough one. And the fight will remain tough if we do not open every possible door to potential newcomers. Having tracks open up for families to go to the track and take the kids is necessary for horse racing to continue the fight for its share of, not only the gambling dollar, but the entertainment dollar.

We have many great tracks in America like Delaware Park. And these tracks can be a great place to take the family. Let’s make sure we let all people feel welcome. We need new blood and new enthusiasts. Once they get there then we have to teach them how to play or we will lose them. Remember, our game is a game of skill, not a mindless game of chance.

If you see a rookie at the track be sure and welcome him or her, then offer to help. After all, that person may want to bring his whole family next week. And that’s not a bad thing. I promise.

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The Pace Can Compromise the Best in the Field

February 25, 2013 by Leave a Comment

A look at the 2013 Fountain of Youth Stakes

By Art Parker

The 2013 edition of the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park proved to be an exciting race that yielded two conclusions. The first conclusion is a confirmation that quite often the pace makes the race and even the best horse in a field is subject to disappointment when the pace is not right.

Gulfstream Park paddockMajestic Hussar popped out of the Gulfstream gate and seized the lead proving to be the quickest of several early speed types. The leader held an advantage of a length or so over the balance of the first flight, which included heavy favorite, Violence. That first flight was clearly running away from all the others in the early stages of the race. Just after Majestic Hussar posted a blistering 45 2/5 half mile you could see the others in the first flight were slipping. At that time the rider of Violence, Javier Castellano, realized that the leader may get away and he was the only one with a shot of stopping a runaway train. Castellano got busy on Violence, who confronted the leader and eventually took the lead when leaving the far turn.

The time for ¾ of a mile was an astonishing 1:08 4/5, a time that is much too hot for even the best older handicap horses, much less a 3 year old in the month of February. Castellano had no choice, in my opinion, but the move drained enough energy out of the leader where he could not hold off the fast charging winner named Orb. Even though the race did not have a speed duel on the front end, the pace made the race for a closer.

Besides confirming that pace can make a race the second conclusion is one regarding a specific horse. The most impressive horse in the race was Violence, who finished second by only a half length. The highly regard Violence turned out to be everything he was cracked up to be.  For those of you who get knee deep in handicapping the Kentucky Derby months in advance I suggest you put a ring around Violence. He was compromised about half way around and had to go all out too soon. The key element is his third quarter, which I calculated at 22 4/5 or 23 flat at worst. Violence is exceptionally well bred and probably has blue blood in his veins. A son of Medaglia d’Oro from the Gone West mare Violent Beauty, Violence is bred to run all day long. He was 3 for 3 coming into the Fountain of Youth and would still be undefeated had he not been compromised quite so much in the race.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Unfortunately, this tremendous effort from Violence took its toll.  The talented 3yo was diagnosed with a fractured sesamoid and is off the Triple Crown trail.

Filed Under: Handicapping 101, Kentucky Derby | Triple Crown, Learn to Handicap Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

You Learn More When You Lose Than When You Win

February 14, 2013 by Leave a Comment

By ART PARKER

Many benefits come my way in my real profession of a newspaper editor. Located in a bedroom community next to our state capital I have the luxury (or burden) of knowing many politicians and knowing the real truth about what is going on. This puts me in a position where people running for office often seek my counsel, especially those running for the first time that need of votes from my community. It is true, and don’t let anyone tell you different, that good columnists and editors of local newspapers have a colossal impact on the political landscape in this country, especially at the state and local level. But the time we have the greatest impact is with verbal communication with a candidate or one who already holds office.

I’m getting around to horse racing after this last piece of political chat so hang on. When a new comer to the political scene comes in my office and tells me he/she wants to run for a position I eventually get around to the key question. “What happens if you lose?” That is the question that starts the world turning in the other direction. They usually stammer or say “I’m not going to lose,” or something else. Never, do they say what they need to say to reflect wisdom. Eventually I get around to asking them that you may lose, especially if you run against an incumbent, so, what are you going to do then? Usually, there is no answer. Then I give them what I think is the best advice I could give anyone.

The advice applies to everything we do in life and certainly applies to politics and those that run for office. I tell them to run and don’t worry about winning. I tell them to get all involved and do everything you can to win. “But, if you lose it may be the best thing for you,” and that is when I get looks like I’m crazy. I always say, “You learn more when you lose than when you win.” It is a fact. I tell them run and don’t worry about it, just take a lot of notes. You get your name out there. You learn how to run. You may even find another office to seek besides the one you seek now. But whatever you do just remember, “You learn more when you lose than when you win.” Just ask Abe Lincoln. You look at his track record and one wonders how he was ever elected President.

Now, on to horse racing with this thought in mind. We are currently in the time of year where most everyone is in a “Derby craze.” Those who have played less than a few years are more susceptible to this mental state. The Derby craze will only get stronger the closer we get to the first Saturday in May.  So many players start reading everything about the ‘Run for the Roses’ and making decisions about this one race months away. They do not know what the weather will be on that Saturday, much less what horses will even be running. So every day that they do play, many of these horseplayers make their bets (and usually lose), but they always keep up with the Derby trail, what trainer said what, and read all about the latest hot horse, etc.

I’m glad there is much enthusiasm for our most sacred day, Kentucky Derby Day. It is a great day for racing. But that one race means so little in the grand scheme of things to the individual horseplayer.

Like many players, I spent several years at a track with my favorite bunch of “track buddies,” and pretty much every Friday, Saturday and Sunday we were together playing the horses. It was like guys that play golf together every weekend. Many of you have the same experience. One member of our group was the source of all the latest news on most everything that meant nothing at the moment. In the spring he knew just about everything about every horse that was a potential Derby runner. He would tell us all this stuff all weekend, every weekend. And he was a terrible horse player. He was a terrible “selector” and a terrible “bettor.” He was terrible. But, he was as great a fan of the game as you will ever find.

One weekend only a few races remained before quitting time rolled around and our friend leaned over to me and asked, “Hey buddy, you got a hundred I can borrow?” I looked at him and asked, “How many tickets have you cashed all weekend, maybe two or three? And last weekend it was the same, right?” He hung his head and shrugged his shoulders. I looked at him, rolled up my Racing Form and popped him in the back of the head. “If you would quit trying to be a Derby expert and try to figure out why you get your butt kicked all the time you would not need to borrow money,” I said with an authoritative, fatherly tone. I was the oldest in age and had more tenure in the game than anyone else in our group, so I guess I got by with it and no one else said anything.

Well, our friend didn’t show up for the next five weeks at the track. He wouldn’t return phone calls from anyone in the group. Some of the other guys let me know I was too tough on him. I started to feel bad. Then he showed up on a Saturday, all smiles. He sat next to me and said, “That was the best thing you could ever do for me,” which, of course, made me feel a lot better. He saved everything and probably had a thousand Racing Forms in his house and the charts to go with them. Our weak player had decided to pay attention to what he was doing. He looked at me and said, “I didn’t pay attention to my losing ways and that is why I never learned anything. I’ve started to go back and see a ton of mistakes I’ve made.”

I’m happy to say that my friend from many years ago is a fine player now. He pays attention to what he is doing, especially the losing efforts. Today, if you ask him in late April about the Derby he probably will say nothing because he is analyzing the $7,500 claiming race from Delaware Park he just lost (he doesn’t have as many of these losers as he once did) .

You learn more when you lose than when you win.  It’s one of the greatest lessons in politics, in horse racing and in life. Remembering this lesson will surely improve your effort as a horse player.

Handicapper Art Parker  — Art Parker is the author of “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns.” A new edition is due out in March, 2012 and available here at AGameofSkill.com

 

Filed Under: Handicapping 101, Horse Racing Education, Learn to Handicap Tagged With: , , ,

A Simple Way to Get New Fans

October 20, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The following piece appeared in the Oct. 8, 2011 edition of Thoroughbred Times and has been reprinted with their permission.


Racing needs to pay attention to P. T. Barnum

by MARK SIMON

Mark Simon, editor of the Thoroughbred Times

Mark Simon, editor of the Thoroughbred Times

SOME racing executives or track owners believe the sport has to compete with lotteries. So they come up with bets that are difficult to win and are likely to produce a large payoff. That, they think, will draw attention to the sport, and result in more people coming to the track. It has not worked out that way. If racing wants to attract new fans, it is time to go back to the basics and keep things simple.

Bets such as the super high five, superfecta, and pick six can produce large payoffs, but they are not substitutes for lotteries or competition with lotteries. First, they appeal to two different audiences. Second, they are nothing alike.

Lotteries—and by the same token slot machines and video lottery terminals (VLTs)—require no skill or thought. The results are random. 

With super high fives, superfectas, and pick sixes, the results are not random. The horses with the better form, jockeys, trainers, class, post, distance proclivity, surface proclivity, et cetera, have a better chance of winning or finishing in the first four or five. Handicapping—skill—comes into play.

The large majority of those attracted to mindless lotteries and VLTs because they are mindless and random are poor candidates to ever be involved betting on races. First, they have to find themselves at the racetrack. Second, if they are at the track, how could they compete in a game of skill with no prior experience?

When that fan starts to look at each individual horse and why it could win, then you have someone who may move on to show or win betting.

In racing, those with more money, and who can cover more combinations, have a much greater chance of winning than someone who randomly plays a single ticket.

An advantage that lotteries have on racing is distribution, with countless stores and outlets, as opposed to racing, which has a brick-and-mortar facility, and maybe some off-track betting outlets. Lotteries reach millions of potential players daily, and they are well promoted through television and newspapers ads.

Racing has a difficult time promoting new bets, even to existing fans. The super high five was introduced in 2007, but has not gotten much traction. With a $1 minimum, it also is expensive, so not popular among those with little resources. In a ten-horse field, the super high five has 30,240 possible combinations.

Its unpopularity is evident on racing’s biggest day, the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, when all the big bettors come out and play in earnest since all the pools are large.

Last year, in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the super high five pool was just $269,513. By comparison, the superfecta had a pool of $3,289,617, the trifecta a pool of $5,983,837, and the exacta a pool of $5,909,080.

Rather than try promoting an obscure bet with limited appeal, racing should introduce a simple wager easily understood by a novice. When a couple goes to the track and one knows a lot more about racing than the other, while one is betting superfectas and trifectas and exactas, the other can get their feet wet by betting an odd-even proposition, for example. If the race winner carries an odd-numbered saddle cloth, that is the bet winner, and if the winner carries an even-numbered saddle cloth, that is the bet winner. In a Breeders’ Cup race, that would give a novice bettor six or seven chances to win.

After a few races, someone making that bet may start to wonder why the payoffs between odd and even are not exactly the same, and you have the beginning of the education of a fan. When that fan starts to look at each individual horse and why it could win, then you have someone who may move on to show or win betting.

That process, of getting new fans started in the sport relatively simply so they are not intimidated to play or worried about looking foolish, is worth far more than the meager returns from an obscure, hard-to-win bet like the super high five.

P. T. Barnum had it figured out a century ago: No one ever got rich overestimating the intelligence of the American public. Do we need any more evidence today than slots, VLTs, and lotteries?

Let’s keep it simple, folks.

Mark Simon is editor of Thoroughbred Times. His e-mail address is msimon@thoroughbredtimes.com.

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Learn to read the track program

October 18, 2011 by Leave a Comment

From the Turf Paradise website at www.turfparadise.com

Learn to read the track program

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Important Owner Connections to Know at Keeneland

September 25, 2011 by 1 Comment

 by handicapper Art Parker

copyright Rich Nilsen

Keeneland paddock (copyright All Star Press)

   It would be a mistake to overlook some of the connections as far as owners are concerned when it comes to Keeneland racing. Trainers do not take their entire stables with them wherever they go, unless they are very small operations. Since purses are superb at Keeneland and since the meetings are short and prestigious, many owners are going to want to be there. Trainers play many roles as previously discussed and one of those roles is politician. A trainer does not want an unhappy owner because an owner controls the inventory of soldiers a trainer has for battle. Without horses a trainer cannot make a dime. Many times an owner connection means nothing, but it is important to keep alert as a horseplayer owners can provide important clues to what is going on. Let’s take a look at some of the discoveries of the 2010 Keeneland Fall Meeting. There is no doubt you will see several, if not a majority of these in 2011.

The biggest trainer name in America is Todd Pletcher. When you look into his barn one of the first things you notice are a couple of winning owners from last year that rings bells. Dogwood Stable and Overbrook Farm are Pletcher clients and they are a couple of the very elite names in American thoroughbred racing. Pletcher won for both of those last fall.   

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott continues to be around big money race meetings and he picked up a couple of winners last fall for Juddmonte Farms, an operation that has won many awards and made tons of money racing in America and Europe. Juddmonte is owned by Prince Khalid Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, and a member of the Saudi Arabian royal family.

Wayne Catalano invaded Keeneland from Chicago and experienced much success. Catalano had multiple winners with owners Gary West and Talons Racing.

There was a trio of trainers that recorded two wins for the same owner. Tevis McCauley won a pair of races for Ron McCauley. Al Stall hit the winner’s circle twice and Columbine Stable was the winner of both. Jamie Ness won two races at Keeneland’s Fall Meeting for his client Midwest Thoroughbreds.

Ken McPeek won a couple of races for Joseph Engelhart and a couple for Magdalena Racing. McPeek even had one winner with a horse the two owned together.

The very talented Wesley Ward was co-owner of a runner that scored twice at the Keeneland Fall Meeting. His co-owner was Gatewood Bell.

The 2011 Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Graham Motion, was successful at the Keeneland Fall Meeting last year. Motion won three races for Augustin Stable, and he did so using three different riders.

Mike Maker won four races for Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey. One of the victories was a first time claim and the other was a second time claim.

Tom Proctor did a great job for his client Glen Hill Farm. One three consecutive days the trainer won a race for his owner and Garrett Gomez was aboard all three winners.

Charles Lopresti won two races for owner Morton Fink with the same horse. Lopresti also scored three times for client Four D Stable.

Musical owners: Not all owners stick with one trainer. There were several owners who enjoyed visiting the Winner’s Circle with different trainers last fall:

Green Lantern Stable had winning runners with George Arnold and Charles Lopresti; The duo of Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey had success with Mike Maker and Wesley Ward; The Augustin Stable had a successful fall meet with trainers Graham Motion and Jonathan Sheppard; and Courtlandt Farms enjoyed victories with Neil Howard and Bill Mott.

Order this book todayArt Parker is the author of the newly released publication “Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns – 2011 fall meet edition.”  Learn the winning tendencies of the successful horsemen at Keeneland – click here for more details.

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The Top 10 Reasons Handicappers Lose Money

July 13, 2011 by 6 Comments

 by Richard Nilsen

 If you have been playing the races this year and are not happy with the results you’ve been getting recently, then it is always a smart idea to take a step back and analyze the situation. What are you doing right, and more importantly, what exactly are you doing wrong?

My father used to remind me that horse racing will teach a person to lose better than any other sport or recreation. Truer words have never been said about this game, because horse racing will often be a real roller-coaster ride. Successful players are able to ride out the bad times in order to reach the “high” moments. Successful players also recognize their faults and consequently make fewer mistakes than their competition. This is a pari-mutuel game, so I am your competition.

 If you are not getting the results you anticipate when you play the horses, chances are that you consistently fall into one or more of the following scenarios:

 1)      You are picking a decent percentage of winners, but your wagering strategies are causing you to lose money. [See reason number five].

 2)      You are betting every single race, instead of looking for prime spot plays. This is the cardinal sin of most bettors. Focus on your best wagers of the day.

 3)      You are employing the same information to handicap that the general public is using. If you are not relying of your own personal notes or a site like Brisnet.com that provides value-added racing information, then you are wagering at a significant disadvantage versus the more sophisticated players.

 4)      You are easily swayed by other people’s input, and therefore, lack conviction in your own selections. This is a game of opinion. Wager on your own.

 5)      You concentrate most of your wagers on low percentage bets. For example, you may be going after too many exotic wagers, such as trifectas and Pick-3’s, that can be both difficult to hit and are based on high takeouts (the amount withheld by the track).

 6)      You look for the quick fix, such as the hot tip from an insider, or the magic formula designed to pick 78-percent winners. No such formula exists, and insider information cannot be relied on over a long-term basis.

 7)      You blame the outcome on an imaginary “fixed” race, instead of looking at the reasons which pointed to the true winner. I highly recommend that you look back over the races you handicapped and dissect the past performances to see why you may have missed the winner(s). All too often, you simply missed an important clue.

 8)      You fail to notice the bias at the track, resulting in wasted money on horses that have the odds stacked against them. Put the percentages in your favor by wagering on horses that fit the profile of the track or the current bias.

9)      You are betting scared money, having no bankroll set aside for horse race betting. You should always have dedicated funds for wagering.

10)  You have no plan or strategy for wagering. You often get in line without knowing your bets, or you jump on your online wagering site with just a few minutes to post and rush your wagers.

Trying to Go Deep?

It is safe to say that most handicappers have committed the mistakes listed above. Of course, the difference lies in who continues to make the same mistakes and who does not. If you feel as though your selections are good, then consider your wagering strategy. Are you swinging for the fences every time, looking to crush the trifecta, meanwhile missing the opportunity for the exacta? Consider knocking your bets down, keying on the Daily Double instead of the Pick-3 or the exacta instead of the trifecta. The inevitable result is that you will cash more tickets and restore your confidence.

 Check the scenarios above which apply to you, then consider the steps you need to take to fix the problems. Doing so, you will place yourself well above the general public, which, we should always remember, is your competition for the wagering dollar. When you minimize the number of mistakes made, your confidence will soar because you will be winning more often. And that is the reason we handicap the horses.

 –          Rich Nilsen is an 8-time qualifier to the National Handicapping Championship and the only player to finish in the top 10 twice. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is now founder of AllStarPress.com, an e-book publishing firm, and AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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