Kentucky Derby 141 Order of Finish

Congratulations to the connections of American Pharoah, winner of this year’s Run for the Roses.

Here is the complete order of finish for the 141st Kentucky Derby:

1. American Pharoah
2. Firing Line
3. Dortmund
4. Frosted
5. Danzig Moon
6. Materiality
7. Keen Ice
8. Mubtaahij
9. Itsaknockout
10. Carpe Diem
11. Frammento
12. Bolo
13. Mr. Z
14. Ocho Ocho Ocho
15. Far Right
16. War Story
17. Tencendur
18. Upstart

Nilsen’s Kentucky Derby 141 Analysis

with Wagering Strategies for the Run for the Roses

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Download the expert analysis of Kentucky Derby 141 from Agameofskill.com founder and 12-time NHC qualifier Rich Nilsen. The report includes in-depth analysis of this year’s Run for the Roses, along with wagering strategies for the win and the exacta and trifecta.

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“Kentucky Derby 141 Analysis” includes:

  • Pace Scenario & Selections for all 13 races on the card
  • The top selection – who can key a monster-size Trifecta!
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  • Wagering Strategies for the Derby
  • 2 Spot Plays on the undercard, both at a price!

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Breeders Cup Remember last year’s Breeders’ Cup?  

Remember Day At The Spa and Work All Week?  Nilsen crushed the Breeders’ Cup last year for AGameofSkill.com readers.  

 

This guide was published after the post position draw on Wednesday.

About the Author

Rich Nilsen has worked the past 23 years in the equine industry, including managing a horse racing stable for 10 years.  During his long tenure at Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com, Nilsen managed the successful Players’ Pool syndicate, which pooled funds from the account wagering members to go after large Pick-6 carryovers. The Players’ Pool produced a significant profit for the members over several years. One of the best hits was when the Players’ Pool took down half of the Pick-6 pool on Kentucky Derby Day 2007, with a gross return of over $500,000.

Nilsen is one of the top participants in the history of the $2 Million National Handicapping Championship (NHC), having qualified 12 times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 at the NHC twice.  He has cashed four times in the event.

“Off the Charts” – KY Derby 141 Prep Notes edition

Derby Prep Trip Notes

I already added Far Right, International Star and Mubtaahij to my stable because I think they both are consistent horses that can get into the superfecta at decent odds (12/1 to 20/1 range).  In this segment I am going to review the trips of several Kentucky Derby-bound horses to see if they should be “moved up” or “moved down.”

Far Right (Arkansas Derby):  Slight bump to his inside into American Pharoah coming out of the gate.  Allowed to settle mamy lengths off the pace.  Roused with the whip several times but interestingly was only hand-ridden in the stretch to get into second placing and a trip to Louisville.  After the race Mike Smith was quoted he tried to “save something” for May 2ndMove UP

El Kabier (Wood Mewmorial):  Well beaten without an apparent excuse.  Did have to go a bit wide coming off the second turn, largely after the race was down to Frosted and Tencendur. AVOID 

Frosted (Wood Memorial):  Mixed vibes here for me.  He had slight trouble at the start and was wide on both turns.  Race may have been run to suit with the slowish tempo (49 and 1:13.2).  Looked like a very tired horse down the lane, but get points for tenacity and finishing the race off. TOUGH READ

American Pharoah (Arkansas Derby):  Victor Espinoza never lowered his hands onto the Pharoah’s neck and never showed him the whip.  I have never seen a horse win a race like that in 29 years of following the sport.  Fractions of 45.4 and 1:10.2 were faster than in the Oaklawn Handicap featuring crack older miler Race Day at the same distance.  Horse to Beat?  I think so.

Firing Line (Sunland Derby):  Off the form lines in the Robert B. Lewis and the fractions in the Sunland Park Derby (45.2, 1:09), this horse can run.  Has to be in the mix.  Move UP

Danzig Moon (Blue Grass):  Slightly awkward and tardy start and bump early, 5 wide first turn, 6 wide second turn before putting a slight scare into Carpe Diem, who got a dream run just outside Ocho Ocho Ocho in 48 and 1:12.  One thing for sure – they won’t go 48 in the Kentucky Derby.  Move UP

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Kentucky Derby 141

The table is set, so what’s for dinner?

By Art Parker

It’s all done, the cooking that is. The table is set. Now, we just need to see who shows up.

What’s for dinner? The Kentucky Derby.

The menu for Derby dinner is just as big as it can be. In reality, the list of good selections on the menu is short.

With just a couple of weeks to go we will be exposed to an abundant amount of information about the twenty likely starters in the Derby. The tonnage of information will build every day until Derby Day comes and then we will hear analysis ad nauseam. All of this should cause confusion about the menu, but not this year.

KY Derby 2015So, who will win the Derby? My answer is I don’t know. What I do know, and feel very confident in stating, is that I believe most all of the other opinions have it right. Most everywhere I look, most every analysis, most every news report, there are three names at the top if the list. Those Derby hopefuls repeatedly cited at the top of the menu are Dortmund, American Pharoah and Carpe Diem.

If you want to eat the Derby dinner look no further.

From everything I have seen, which includes video of all races, there is no other horse that poses a threat. I give a little nod, with much reluctance, to International Star, Materiality and Frosted. There are limited reasons for mentioning that trio of Derby hopefuls.

Dortmund is a big, beautiful youngster that may not fully understand how to run. He just runs much faster than at least seventeen others that will be in the Derby.

American Pharoah looks to be a professional race horse that makes it look much too easy. I believe he has his mind on business as well as can be expected from a three year old, and that escalates his physical ability.

Carpe Diem has the coolest name I’ve heard in years, especially when one knows the meaning. He reminds me of A.P. Indy – he may need to be coaxed into running and winning. If he turns out as good as A.P. Indy then we have something to look forward to.

Fox Sports posted a piece on the KY Derby horses the other day with a very brief description of the presumed entrants. They had American Pharoah at 5-1. Dortmund was listed at 6-1. Carpe Diem was at 10-1. Let me announce, right now, that if any of these three go off at these odds I will be making a wager on their nose.

A lot can happen in a horse race, especially the Derby. We all know that the best horse does not often win in Louisville. The Derby, much more than other races, demands that the player seek value. And this may be the best year to be seeking.

One of the top three, for whatever reason, may be disrespected on the tote board. I hope so.

The bottom line is that I’m not concerned about who wins the Derby. I just want to make a good bet.

And this may be a good Derby to do just that.

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