MEDAL COUNT (25/1, Presser)

The runner from classic Spendthrift Farm was wheeled back in only 8 days and ran an excellent second in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes over Keeneland’s Polytrack.  The top three finishers were over 5 lengths clear of the fourth horse in a large 14-horse field.  This son of Dynaformer is a talented horse but he appears to be much better on turf or synthetic, or at least proven over those surfaces.  His three career dirt efforts were all sub-par, as he ran 89, 73 and 76 BRIS speed figures, respectively.  He can handle the dirt, as evidenced by his 6 1/4 length win in his debut at Ellis Park, but the big question remains if he can do so against a Grade 1 field.  The colt is somewhat reminiscent of Dale Roman’s Paddy O’Prado, a confirmed turf runner, who also ran second in the Blue Grass Stakes before finishing a fast closing, troubled third in the Kentucky Derby.

Medal Count is a half sibling to Garden District, who won or placed in two stakes races on the main track at Churchill Downs.  His dam, a daughter of Unbridled’s Song, was a very versatile runner who won multiple times on both turf and dirt, while placing in stakes out West.  Both of these facets of his pedigree bode well for him duplicating his sharp current form in Louisville.

Form: Improving

Status: Borderline contender

Value line: 25/1

SAMRAAT (30/1, Early/Presser)

This New York-bred son of Noble Causeway was defeated for the first time when making his sixth career start in the G1 Wood Memorial, a race won by Wicked Strong.  The colt tracked the pace closely throughout and then finished gamely. He had trouble switching leads and only did so yards from the wire.  That helped him edge out the over-hyped Social Inclusion by a nose for the place spot, while no real threat to the winner.  He was hurt by the fast pace, and it was the first time Samraat was not in the lead turning for home.

His dam (mother) has produced five route winners from only six starters to race, and he is already proven around two turns. However, his difficulty in switching leads, coupled with the speed influence of broodmare sire Indian Charlie, raises doubts about ten furlongs (1 1/4 miles).

Samraat’s consistency, talent, and heart certainly give him a chance of hitting the superfecta, but a Kentucky Derby victory would be a huge surprise.

Form: Solid

Status: Borderline contender

Value line: 30/1

Watch the Grade 1 Wood Memorial

httpv://youtu.be/a4jwGXrXETc

INTENSE HOLIDAY (20/1, Closer)

This horse is not an easy one to gauge. The Todd Pletcher trainee has improved with each start dating back to last fall. He started the year breaking from a tough outside post in the G2 Holy Bull, where he finished a distant third to Cairo Prince while finishing against the grain of the track.  That was actually a sneaky good effort as he made a strong middle move, passing Wicked Strong in the process as if he were standing still.  Intense Holiday then ran an outstanding race, rallying behind a slow pace to get up at the wire in the G2 Risen Star, an effort that earned him a 99 BRIS Speed Rating.  At the time this was a career best number.

In the Louisiana Derby he ducked in and brushed the rail at the top of the stretch and then failed to switch leads until late. However, the son of Harlan’s Holiday continued on willingly to be a clear second as the lukewarm favorite.  Despite an effort that wasn’t as impressive as the Risen Star victory, he earned a career best 100 figure for the runner up performance.  This colt has the right running style for the Kentucky Derby and he has the push-button type of acceleration you want to see from a contender.

Form: Solid/Improving

Status: Contender

Value line: 20/1

Watch the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby

httpv://youtu.be/7VhPo8myDnI

There’s only 10 days to go until the first Saturday in May, the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 3, 2014.  A Game of Skill is going to take a close look at the probable KY Derby starters as we approach racing’s most important horse race.  Today we start with Grade 1 winner and longshot Dance With Fate, as well as the Todd Pletcher trained We Miss Artie.

copyright 2014 Brisnet.com and Equibase

DANCE WITH FATE (Closer, 50/1)

The Peter Eurton trained runner has certainly outrun his pedigree.  There is little to speak of under the first dam (mother), and sire Two Step Salsa is not a stallion one would expect to see a classic runner hail from.  This colt looked great winning the G1 Blue Grass Stakes over Keeneland’s Polytrack surface, but that race does not translate to the Kentucky Derby which is run over a traditional dirt surface. This colt is still a maiden (non-winner) over that type of surface, and needless to say, that is a big negative.  He did run a good 2nd to Bond Holder in the G1 Front Runner at Santa Anita last year but then followed that up with a very poor performance in the Breeders’ Cup over the same dirt surface.  He simply looks better over turf or synthetic, neither of which helps him much on the first Saturday in May.

Form: Sharp

Status: Throwout

Value line: 50/1

WE MISS ARTIE (Closer, 75/1)

This is another very talented synthetic runner.  The son of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Artie Shiller benefited from a hot pace and got up by a nose to score in the G3 Spiral Stakes, a race that is a shell of itself despite Animal Kingdom winning a few years ago.  In three starts over the dirt, this colt has shown little to no talent over that surface. This sophomore runner has the ability and traits to be one of the better turf horses in the country this year, so this handicapper would like to see the connections go that route instead.  Pass on Derby Day.

Form: Questionable (off since March 22)

Status: Throwout

Value line: 75/1