Predicting the pace of the race is a critical aspect of successful handicapping. Today, I present a pace chart which breaks down where each runner is expected to be during the running of the race – on opening day at Kentucky Downs.
Obviously, starting breaks and jockey tendencies/decisions play a major role in how the race plays out. But put the percentages in your favor BEFORE the race by anticipating how the race will be run. From there, you can decide which runners may benefit and which may be compromised. It can often be the deciding factor between choosing your preferred horse in the race.
Sunday, 9/5/2021 | ||||||
Kentucky Downs | ||||||
Race 1 | Expected Pace | Leaders | Stalkers | Mid-Pack | Closers | Unknown/FTS |
12.0 Furlongs / Turf | Slow | 7 | 3-5-9 | 2-8-6-4 | 10-1 | |
Race 2 | ||||||
6.50 Furlongs / Turf | Unknown | 2 | 12-14-16 | 11-4-13-8 | 1-3-5-6-7-9-10-15 | |
Race 3 | ||||||
8 Furlongs / Turf | Very Fast | 3-6-5 | 8-14-7 | 12-1-2-10 | 4-11-9-15-16-13 | |
Race 4 | ||||||
8 Furlongs / Turf | Modest | 6-7 | 4-9 | 5-1-10-8 | 3 | 2-1A |
Race 5 | ||||||
6.50 Furlongs / Turf | Honest | 3 | 9-4-11 | 13-14-1-10 | 8-7-6-2-12-5 | |
Race 6 | ||||||
8 Furlongs / Turf | Slow | 4 | 6-10-2 | 7-3-9-8 | 1-5 | |
Race 7 | ||||||
6.50 Furlongs / Turf | Honest | *14 | 5-12-13 | 7-11-15-10 | 8-2-3-9-16-1-6 | 4 |
Race 8 | ||||||
6.50 Furlongs / Turf | Unknown | 6 | 13-3-7 | 14-12-8-1 | 2-4-5-9-10-11-15 | |
Race 9 | ||||||
10.50 Furlongs / Turf | Slow | 6-7-5 | 1-4 | 8-3-2 | 9 | |
Race 10 | ||||||
10.50 Furlongs / Turf | Honest/Fast | 8 | 4-1-9 | 12-7-11-3 | 6-2-5-10 | |
Race 11 | ||||||
6.50 Furlongs / Turf | Honest/Fast | 10 | 14-15-13 | 3-11-5-9 | 12-1-2-6-8-16-4 | 7 |