KY Derby Television Ad direct from Europe



Celebrating its 180th anniversary in 2012, Longines is a sponsor of some of the world’s most celebrated horse races. The Swiss company ran a striking television ad during the NBC Kentucky Derby television broadcast. Over the years some of the best television ads for promotion of the sport have come from sponsors within the game. The ad from Longines this year is no exception. The link above is to the full advert, about one minute longer than what was aired here in the United States.

About Longines & The YouTube Ad

“Longines sweeps you deep into the heart of the equestrian action in which it is today passionately involved. Its new commercial was shot in the grandiose setting of the Chantilly Racecourse, where Longines is the official timekeeper and where the Prix de Diane Longines is staged. Film director Cyril Clapin’s camera takes you backstage for the weighing-in, where the jockeys fine-tune their concentration, and into the stalls where the horses themselves are being readied. From the palpable tension prior to a race to the collective shiver at the starting gun, you’ll live the dramatic seconds ticked off by the race chronograph and experience the beauty and power of the galloping horses. Jockey and mount are then but one.”

KY Derby Analysis available from 10-time NHC Qualifier

In this 24-page PDF ebook you will receive Rich Nilsen’s expert analysis of all 20 starters in Kentucky Derby 138, along with pace scenario, top selections and wagering strategies. Each horse is rated as a contender, borderline exotic use, or a throwout. Nilsen is one of the most successful players in the history of the $2 million National Handicapping Championship (NHC)

Nilsen includes a value odds line to determine the best horses to wager on, and he discusses wagering strategies (including exactas and trifectas) for three different budgets.

“Kentucky Derby 138 Analysis” includes:

  • Pace Scenario
  • Profiles of all 20 horses in alphabetical order
  • The 2 horses to key most of your wagers around
  • Value oddsline
  • Wagering Strategies

This guide was published after the post position draw on Wednesday, May 2, 2012.

Purchase this KY Derby guide today – instant download – for only $4.97

This book is also available for the Kindle here on Amazon.

2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders, Borderline Horses, and Throwouts – Part VI


PPs of KY Derby favorite Bodemeister

2012 copyright and Equibase

BODEMEISTER (5/1, # 11 on the Money List )

This son of Empire Maker may have peaked in the G1 Arkansas Derby, when he overcame a very tough outside post that afternoon to crush the field by 9 1/2 widening lengths. He got the final 1/8th of a mile in a shade under 12 seconds, which is simply phenomenal and explains why he won by so far. In the process he earned a very strong 105 BRIS Speed Rating and an even bigger Beyer speed figure.

I was on Bodemeister when he broke his maiden in his second career start, Feb. 11 at Santa Anita. That day it was a similar performance, as the young colt dictated the pace and then drew away to 9 1/4 length win in fast time. Off that impressive maiden win, he was stepped up to the G2 San Felipe by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and the result was a strong 2nd place finish to Creative Cause, the top horse in California.

This handicapper really likes Bodemeister, but I am also a value player and there are several problems with this talented horse when it comes to Kentucky Derby 138. Here are the six reasons that I will not be keying my bets around Bode:

1) Bodemeister will be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, despite what other people think. He is coming off a monster win and a huge Beyer figure. Union Rags is coming off a disappointing 3rd.  Factor in Bob Baffert, and there is no doubt in my mind who goes off favorite. It’s hard to bet on an underlay in any Kentucky Derby, but especially so this year when the field appears to be very strong.

2) No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 has been unraced as a two year old. That’s 1882 not 1982. Different trends have been falling by the wayside in recent years, but this is the negative trend of all negative trends. The last big-name victim of this trend was eventual Horse of the Year Curlin.

3) Check out this post-race quote from the Arkansas Derby. “The key to this horse is keeping him quiet in the post parade,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “He got really hot in his last race [San Felipe]. It’s exciting to see a young horse develop like this.” Welcome to the Kentucky Derby Day paddock, Bode.

4) The runner-up, Secret Circle, from Oaklawn can’t run a lick past 8.5 furlongs, and the rest of the field was pretty lackluster. Bottom line: he didn’t beat much.

5) He has bounce written all over him. Oftentimes horses bounce because they don’t get the same situation in their next start. See reason #6.

6) This may be the most scary reason for those planning on supporting Bodemeister. He owns two lifetime wins and in both races he did not pass a horse. Bode has never passed a horse en route to winning a race. I’m not saying he isn’t capable of doing that but he is unproven rating. There is a ton of pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby and that potentially hurts Bode big time.

Status: Contender. Value players will consider tossing him due to the reasons discussed above.

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2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders, Borderline Horses and Throwouts – Part IV


2012 copyright and Equibase

TRINNIBERG (#17 on Money List)

Jennie Rees at the Courier Journal recently penned this about Trinniberg:  “He made his graded stakes money at sprint distances and is more likely for the Derby Trial. Trainer Bisnath Parboo says he doesn’t want to ruin a good horse by running him too far. Smart trainer.”

Unfortunately Kentucky Derby fever often strikes at this time of the year, and otherwise intelligent individuals make stupid decisions. Entering this sprinter in the Derby is a perfect example of this. The connections of this horse, who has never been past 7 furlongs, have done a 180 and are now planning on entering Kentucky Derby 138. What this does ensure is an even hotter pace than what was expected.

“You want to know the reason,” Parbhoo responded about his decision to re-route the colt to the Derby. “Secret Circle. When he came out of the race (due to a reported sesamoid injury), that’s what did it for me. With him out of the race, I know there isn’t another horse in the race with the kind of speed my horse has.”

Yeah, well good luck with that Parbhoo. It’s true your horse will be on the lead for the opening six furlongs or so, but that doesn’t get you very far in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby.

As someone who has owned horses, I think it is sad that they have made this decision. Trinniberg is in brilliant form this year, having captured both his sprint attempts in impressive fashion.  Risking his year and possibly his career for a shot at the Derby is unfortunate.

Trinniberg is 1-20 to finish last in this year’s Run for the Roses.

Status: Throwout

2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders, Borderline Horses and Throwouts – Part II


KY Derby contender El Padrino

2012 copyright and Equibase

EL PADRINO (15/1, #23 on the Money List)

Inbred to both Mr. Prospector and Secretariat, it goes without saying that El Padrino hails from a very class family. His dam is an offspring of the Mr. Prospector mare Chic Shirine, who produced two Grade 2 winners and is a full sister to 1991 Champion Older Mare Queena. So, I don’t believe that distance is any type of concern for this son of Pulpit. Class and stamina are present throughout in his bloodlines.

El Padrino was the “hot” horse after his smashing win at Fair Grounds in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Although he only scored by a nose, he did so in pretty good time, with the runner-up well clear of the show horse in the large 11-horse field. The Todd Pletcher trainee caught many players’ attention in his prior start, his first of his three-year-old year, when he ran a monster 111 BRIS Speed Rating in an allowance win. He then ran a 101 when winning the Risen Star, and followed that up with a 100 fig when racing an even fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). His Florida Derby effort was just fair and he was clearly no match even for the show horse, Union Rags, who had a less than ideal trip.

This colt may be good enough to win the Kentucky Derby but I believe his first two starts of the year have caused a regression. He is not coming into the first Saturday of May the right way – peaking. In a year when the Derby is very strong and there are many serious contenders, that is enough for me to throw El Padrino out.

Status: Throwout

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2011 Kentucky Derby Animal Kingdom Scores Impressively

Under a vigorous hand ride by top jockey John Velazquez, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom scored an impressive comeback victory on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. This talented four year old can handle multiple surfaces – dirt, artificial or turf.


Kentucky Derby viewership – Male vs. Female

A couple of years ago the Nielsen company took a close look at the television viewership on the Kentucky Derby, following a timeline both before and after the big race. It’s a surprising race between the sexes.

Take a gander at the results of the Nielsen analysis.

Premier summer meets no longer impact KY Derby

Keep your focus on the upcoming fall meets

 Handicapper Art ParkerBy ART PARKER

  The visual is still there. I can see Secretariat storming into the Saratoga stretch against helpless two year olds, who are shaken by his rush to the front. Other two year olds embarrassed by the legend in the 1972 editions of the Sanford and the Hopeful. Of course we know what happened the next year. Secretariat made history, winning the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.

   The two premier summer meets in America, Saratoga and Del Mar, bring us thrills and provide an escalator for talent in big stakes races to come. That’s the way it may have been, but that doesn’t seem to be the case any longer when it comes to the Kentucky Derby.

 Premier 2yos at Del Mar, Saratoga All of us who are lovers of the great sport of thoroughbred racing are always looking to the future. We anticipate the content of history yet to be written, and in thoroughbred racing history is first dominated by the greatest race of all, the Kentucky Derby. In the last ten years Saratoga and Del Mar have almost totally failed to contribute to the history of the Kentucky Derby. Let’s look at the last ten Kentucky Derby winners and take a glimpse at their two year old season.

None of the following Kentucky Derby winners (showing the year in which they won the Kentucky Derby) raced at Saratoga or Del Mar in their two year old campaigns:

2002 War Emblem, 2003 Funny Cide, 2004 Smarty Jones, 2005 Giacomo, 2006 Barbaro, 2007 Street Sense, 2009 Mine that Bird, and 2011 Animal Kingdom.

The 2008 Kentucky Derby winner, Big Brown, broke his maiden at Saratoga on the turf. The 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver finished second in his initial maiden race at Saratoga.   

It looks like the Kentucky Derby winners are getting a later start in the business. Of the last ten Kentucky Derby winners only three broke their maidens before September and only one of those, the previously mentioned Big Brown, broke his maiden at one of the premier meets. The other two, Street Sense and Mine That Bird, broke their maidens in August at Arlington Park and Woodbine, respectively.

I’m sure many racing aficionados feel sad that the history of Kentucky Derby now seems to exclude Del Mar and Saratoga. But those storied meets still make their significant contributions to the annals of thoroughbred racing history. Furthermore, it means that good news is coming our way since it is late August. Next year’s Derby winner will probably be seen soon (if not already). If you enjoy thinking about the first Saturday in May then steer your focus in on September and October. Pay attention to the two year old maiden and stakes races at Arlington Park, Woodbine, Delaware Park, Keeneland, Hollywood Park and, of course, the always superb fall meeting at Belmont.

The answer to the question us handicappers always ask during the spring will probably be racing at one of those venues soon.