Nilsen’s KY Derby Analysis with Wagering Strategies

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Derby 144 Analysis with Wagering Strategies & Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Get the complete analysis of the 2018 Kentucky Derby card with Nilsen’s professional selections for the big race.  Nilsen covers all 14 races on Derby Day and includes his written analysis on all 20 starters in the Run for the Roses!  Along with exacta and trifecta strategies for the KY Derby, Nilsen has three spot plays with wagers on the day.

As always this is a tremendous betting card, one of the best of year!

Rich Nilsen is the winner of 6 major handicapping tournament and a 14-time qualifier to the $3 million National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).  There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing KY Derby card.

This sheet contains:

  • Top selections for all 14 races
  • Sophisticated Pace Scenario for all 14 races
  • 3 Spot Plays (Best Bets) on the undercard w/ wagering strategies
  • In-depth Analysis of the Kentucky Derby with comments on all 20 starters.
  • Two Value plays keyed in Exacta and Trifecta strategies.

Get all 14 races on the Churchill Downs’ card.  Download now for only $15.97 to any device.
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BONUS PACKAGE!

But that’s not all.  You can also get analysis for Kentucky Oaks Day which includes wagering strategies for the Oaks and 2 Spot Plays with wagers.  Nilsen covers all the stakes races on the card beginning with the G2 Eight Belles Stakes!  SIX Stakes races and 9 races in all!

Get the KY Oaks Sheet + the Kentucky Derby Day Sheet in one package

Download now for only $24.97 to any device.

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Rich Nilsen handicapperTestimonials

“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit !! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry… I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey !! let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash!  Thanks Again, ” ~ Wayne M.

“Rich, thanks for your terrific analysis of the Gulfstream Park [Rainbow Six 3/31/18].  I was able to hit the Pick 6 [paid $9,018 for twenty cents!].   Anyone out there who bets horses would be well advised to download your sheet on every major race day… thanks again for a job well done.” ~ Evan C.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

Revisiting a KY Derby Dark Horse

handicapper Justin Dewby Justin Dew

Word on the street is that this ‘dark horse’ earned a Thorograph number just a half-point slower than Magnum Moon in the G1 Arkansas Derby. This isn’t surprising considering how wide Solomini was throughout the race. So if you like Magnum Moon (and I don’t), or if you think Solomini is a fighter who will handles the distance (and I do), then perhaps you need to give another look to the “other Baffert horse” in the Kentucky Derby field.

In a previous post, we discussed how well Solomini has run against some of the more highly-regarded horses in this crop. But for a quick refresher…

He finished in front of Bolt d’Oro in the Breeders’ Cup…

He finished in front of McKinzie and Instilled Regard in the race at Los Al….

Off the layoff, he managed to run 2nd to the fitter Magnum Moon while encountering some trouble in the Rebel…

And he did what he did in the Arkansas Derby (see above).

Also, even though I’m not a fan of Combatant, it’s worth noting that Solomini was passed by Combatant in both of the Oaklawn preps, but Solomini came back and re-passed him both times. I’m not saying that demonstrates extreme talent, but it does show he isn’t a quitter.

If there is a negative with regard to Solomini, it’s that he hasn’t ever wowed us and it’s no guarantee that he has made the necessary jump from age 2 to age 3 that it usually takes to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby. That said, I get the feeling that if they take him a little further back in the Kentucky Derby, he might be able to make a sustained run and surprise some people. And we’ll almost certainly see odds of 20-1 or higher. He’s an intriguing longshot in my book. And he’ll be on most of my tickets.

Betting at Keeneland or on the Kentucky Derby? See what goes into setting the odds.

Man studying racing paper trackside before races.

Betting at Keeneland or on the Kentucky Derby? See what goes into setting the odds.

Lexington Herald Leader Full coverage

Source: Betting at Keeneland or on the Kentucky Derby? See what goes into setting the odds.

Medaglia d’Oro holds solid Kentucky Derby cards

Handicapper Art ParkerBy ART PARKER

His greatest runners have been fillies. Names such as Songbird, Rachel Alexandra and last year’s Alabama winner Elate. The successful sire, Medaglia d’Oro, has two of the current Kentucky Derby favorites and their prospects look good.

Bolt D’Oro leads most Kentucky Derby polls as the top three year old in the nation. He is a true blue blood coming from a dam by the great A.P. Indy. You put the dam side along with his sire, which is El Prado, and you have the makings of a classic champion. The most impressive part of his sire line contains names such as Sadler’s Wells and Northern Dancer. One thing about Bolt d’Oro – distance should be no problem.

Bolt d’Oro won the San Felipe Stakes, the biggest three year old race on the west coast prior to the Santa Anita Derby. It is important to note that Bolt d’Oro didn’t make it to the finish line first, that honor belonged to McKinzie, a Bob Baffert trainee that many considered to be the top Derby prospect in the nation. Bolt d’Oro won with a controversial disqualification. If he and McKinzie both return in the Santa Anita Derby the issue of superiority should be resolved, at least until the first Saturday in May.

As of now Bolt d’Oro is atop the Derby list and his pedigree makes him a genuine classic distance horse.

copyright DarbyAmerica

On the east coast another son of Medaglia d’Oro captured a Kentucky Derby prep the same day Bolt d’Oro was victorious in California. Enticed, a colt with the cool one word name, romped in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. Enticed left the impression that he was a plodder and had to be encouraged to go. When he did get down to business in the Aqueduct stretch, he turned the Gotham into an easy win.

Enticed has strong ties to A.P. Indy on the dam side since his broodmare sire is former Horse of the Year Mineshaft. His dam was no slouch either. It’s Tricky defeated two-time Champion Royal Delta and Oaks winner Plum Pretty in the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks over 9 furlongs.

Medaglia d’Oro has been a great sire and he was also a great runner. His record from 17 starts is 8-7-0. He won The Travers Stakes and The Whitney at Saratoga as well as the Strub Stakes, the Oaklawn Handicap and the Donn Handicap. He finished second in the Pacific Classic and the Belmont Stakes and twice finished in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Dubai World Cup.

Medaglia d’Oro currently has a lofty stud fee $250,000.

Now 19 years old, Medaglia d’Oro only needs a winner on the first Saturday in May in Louisville to round out a great stud career. In 2018 he looks to be at the Derby poker table holding some strong cards. His popularity as a prospective Derby winning sire was displayed in the November future sire pool when he was heavily bet to 5-1.

Is Horse Racing Dead? Kentucky Derby Day Handle Hit Record Amounts

churchill downs ky derby dayWith wagering above $200 million for the first time and a top-10 crowd on Kentucky Derby Day, Louisville-based Churchill Downs Inc. expects to add between $4-6 million in increased profitability, the company announced earlier this month.

Source: Kentucky Derby and Derby Day Handle Hit Record Highs

Can New Jersey-bred in the Kentucky Derby actually win? Bet on it

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Regret and Cavalcade, the names are faint echoes, hallmarks of a time in American thoroughbred racing when New Jersey was a lot more than a casual pit stop in the breeding business. They were the only Jersey-breds ever to win the Kentucky Derby — Regret in 1915, Cavalcade in 1934. They were to…

[Read more…]

Kentucky Derby Preps Feature Lots of Contenders

KY Derby Logo 2017Lexington Herald Leader

Kentucky Derby contenders bunched tightly entering stretch run of prep races Lexington Herald Leader Quietly biding his time in second place with 64 points is Peacock Racing Stables’ Gunnevera, who stormed to victory by 5 3/4 lengths in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 4 and has remained at Gulfstream in training for the Florida Derby this weekend.

Source: Kentucky Derby contenders bunched tightly entering stretch run of prep races

Disqualifier for Kentucky Derby? One Streak Has Stood the Test of Time

Disqualifier for Kentucky Derby ? One Streak Has Stood Test of Time America’s Best Racing Previously, that streak dating back to 1882 Kentucky Derby hero Apollo was just one part of a veritable rulebook for glory on the first Saturday in May.

churchill downs ky derby day“It’s not really about experience, it’s about being far enough along to be good enough to win at a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. That development usually takes some time; it’s just really hard to compress it all within four or five months and then not have any setbacks along the way. And then you have to be good enough on that day. Curlin was good enough — he had been before and he was afterward — just not that day,” explained Jerry Brown.

Source: Disqualifier for Kentucky Derby? One Streak Has Stood Test of Time (read the full article)

Triple Crown Radio Coverage

Headphones with microphone

copyright denrud

Horse Racing Radio Network (HRRN), the Eclipse Award-winning broadcast organization based in Lexington, KY will partner with NBC Sports Group, the home of horse racing, to provide live radio coverage of all three Triple Crown races through 2018 it was announced today.

For each race, NBC Sports Radio will present two hours of live coverage from 5-7 p.m. ET, produced in partnership with HRRN, and distributed by Westwood One.  Audio coverage will also be distributed via the Tune In website and mobile app, and on the HRRN website.

HRRN and NBC Sports Radio partnered to provide exclusive radio coverage of American Pharoah’s historic Triple Crown run in 2015.

“To be associated with such an iconic broadcast organization is a tremendous honor,” said HRRN President Mike Penna.  “The NBC Sports Group and Westwood One teams are as good as it gets.  We are excited to build on the momentum from last year’s Triple Crown and look forward to taking the broadcasts to even greater heights through this partnership in the coming years.”

“We are pleased to have HRRN as a partner at the Triple Crown races again this year to help us bring NBC Sports Radio listeners the best, most insightful coverage of these three great races,” said Rob Simmelkjaer, Senior Vice President of NBC Sports Ventures.

Bruce Gilbert, SVP Sports for Cumulus/Westwood One, said “Westwood One Sports is proud to partner with NBC Sports and HRRN to present every majestic moment of thrilling Triple Crown Racing to fans everywhere.”

For more information on programming, please contact Westwood One atNBCSportsRadio@westwoodone.com.  For a complete schedule of shows, bios, exclusive audio content, and a list of radio stations airing NBC Sports Radio, log on to NBCSportsRadio.com andhorseracingradio.net

NBC SPORTS GROUP AND HORSE RACING: NBC Sports Group is the exclusive home to the most important and prestigious events in horse racing, including the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup. NBC has been the exclusive home of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes since 2001, and the Belmont Stakes since 2011, when NBC Sports Group reassembled the Triple Crown.

About HRRN

The Horse Racing Radio Network is your home for Eclipse Award winning coverage of the biggest events in racing throughout the year. In 2016, HRRN will broadcast more than 100 stakes races from racetracks across the country, and is the official radio network of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, and Breeders’ Cup World Championships. HRRN also produces a series of popular talk shows aired throughout the week on SiriusXM satellite radio: Xpressbet Radio on HRRN (WednesdayFriday, 3-6 p.m. ET), Jock Talk presented by Tito’s Handmade Vodka (Tuesday, 6-7 p.m. ET), Trainer Talk presented by Fasig-Tipton (Wednesday, 6-7 p.m. ET), Brisnet Call In Show (Thursday,6-7 p.m. ET), Xpressbet Weekend Stakes Preview (Friday, 6-7 p.m. ET) and the Equine Forum (Saturday, 8-10 a.m. ET). .

For more information visit www.horseracingradio.net, follow us on Twitter @HRRN and like “Horse Racing Radio Network” on Facebook.

California Chrome to Seek All-Time Record

California Chrome working out spring of 2014

2014 copyright Gary Tasich

 Kentucky Derby Winner on the Comeback Trail

California Chrome knows the drill. It starts with horse cookies. “Every morning, as soon as he sees me, he starts nickering,” trainer Art Sherman said with a chuckle. “He’s saying, ‘Where’s my cookie?!’ I’ve got to give him one right away or he won’t shut up.”

After a year of globe-trotting but little racing, California Chrome… [Read more…]