Nilsen’s Kentucky Derby 143 Expert Selections with Wagering Strategies

Skip the Pretenders.  Get Real Expert Selections for Saturday’s KY Derby

Rich Nilsen handicapperBONUS: Full-card Selections for all 14 races at Churchill Downs, Saturday May 6, 2017. Includes 3 Spot Plays (Best Bets) on the undercard and a top Longshot play for the Derby!

Get the expert analysis of Kentucky Derby 143 from Agameofskill.com founder and 12-time NHC qualifier Rich Nilsen. The report includes analysis for the Run for the Roses, along with wagering strategies for the exacta and late Pick-4.

Download Nilsen’s full-card analysis for Saturday.

“Kentucky Derby 143 Analysis” includes:

Pace Scenario for every race
3 Spot Plays on the undercard
The top Kentucky Derby selection
Whose working well for the Derby
Exotic wagering strategies
Late Pick-4 wagering strategies

This guide was published after the post position draw on Wednesday.

KY Derby day analysis covers all 14 races.  Download now to any device (PDF file).
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About the Author

Nilsen has worked the past 25 years in the equine industry, including managing a horse racing stable for 10 years. During his long tenure at Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com, Nilsen managed the successful Players’ Pool syndicate, which pooled funds from the account wagering members to go after large Pick-6 carryovers. The Players’ Pool produced a significant profit for the members over several years. One of the best hits was when the Players’ Pool took down half of the Pick-6 pool on Kentucky Derby Day 2007, with a gross return of over $500,000.

Nilsen is one of the top participants in the history of the $2.8 Million National Handicapping Championship (NHC), having qualified 13 times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 at the NHC twice.

Get his in-depth KY Derby day analysis for only $15.97 – covers all 14 races.  Download now to any device (PDF file).
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Early Look at Kentucky Derby 143

Handicapper Art ParkerBy Art Parker

If were not for the obligation to write about the 143rd edition of the Kentucky Derby, I probably would not be considering the race this far in advance (this was penned on April 18, 2017). I do my best, as I have previously written, to avoid concentration on a race so far away. I guess it’s about time to take a look at Kentucky Derby 143, and without making a specific selection, which would be truly foolish, let’s see what the future holds for the first Saturday in May.

[Before I go further please note that the final Derby field is yet to be determined. Some horses mentioned here may not make it to the post position draw.]

Nothing is a replacement for sound historical data, especially when one is considering making an investment, be it real estate, the shares of a corporation, or a pari-mutuel wager on a thoroughbred. Where winners come from is a prime consideration when analyzing the Derby in search of a winner. For that answer we look to the Derby prep season, which reminds me of a presidential campaign. First there are primaries and eventually a convention. The deal with the Derby is similar; we have prep races and then we have a race at a big venue called Churchill Downs. In the presidential primaries so much is made of winning certain primaries because of the number of delegates available. The same is true of the Derby preps especially since points have been awarded to the highest ranking finishers. Without getting into the specifics of the point system, let’s just look at the most important piece of pre-Derby history.

In the last several decades over 80% of the Derby winners finished either first or second in one of the following major prep races: Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Spiral Stakes, Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby, Santa Anita Derby or the Blue Grass. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, most of these races serve as the last “big prep” before the Derby and almost all serious contenders will run in one of these, plus the purses of these races are very appealing. Secondly, the cream of the crop shows up at these races, which are generally held four to five weeks before the Derby making these races the best indicator of current form.

Here are the winners and second place finishers in the critical prep races in 2017:

Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park in Miami): Always Dreaming (Winner) State of Honor (second)

Wood Memorial (Aqueduct in NY): Irish War Cry (Winner) Battalion Runner (second)

Spiral (Turfway Park in Florance KY): Fast and Accurate (Winner)  Blueridge Traveler (second)

Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, AK): Classic Empire (Winner)  Conquest Mo Money (second)

Louisiana Derby (Fairgrounds in New Orleans): Girvin (Winner) Patch (second)

Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita Park in LA):  Gormley (Winner) Battle of Midway (second)

Blue Grass (Keeneland in Lexington, KY): Irap (Winner) Practical Joke (second)

A total of 14 different horses finished first or second in these preps. If you want to look in the direction of high probability when selecting a Derby winner then I can’t think of a better place than those that ran first or second in these select races.

Others worth noting:

McCracken won the Tampa Derby (Tampa Bay Downs) and finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Gunnevera won the Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream Park) and finished third in the Florida Derby.

Malagacy won the Rebel Stakes (Oaklawn Park) and finished third in the Arkansas Derby.

Thunder Snow won the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai.

Easy pickings, right?

Kentucky Derby 143 Future Book Odds Updated

Future Book odds direct from the best racebook in Nevada, Wynn Las Vegas, and racebook manager Johnny Avello.

Derby odds as of February 9, 2017

OPEN CURRENT
ACTION EVERYDAY 85/1 85/1
ADULATION 175/1 200/1
ADORNED 175/1 125/1
ALAN’S LEGACY 500/1 500/1
ALWAYS DREAMING 200/1 100/1
AMERICAN ANTHEM 225/1 25/1
ANN ARBOR EDDIE 175/1 125/1
ANTIOCH 75/1 225/1
ANYPORTINASTORM 175/1 300/1
AQUAMARINE 300/1 200/1
ARISTOCRATIC 200/1 150/1
ARKLOW 250/1 125/1
ATTRIBUTE 225/1 225/1
BACK OFF 200/1 200/1
BALANDEEN 300/1 225/1
BASELINE 400/1 400/1
BASHA 200/1 250/1
BATTALION RUNNER 200/1 30/1
BATTLE OF MIDWAY 75/1 75/1
BEACH BUM 100/1 75/1
BEASLEY 250/1 100/1
BIG GRAY ROCKET 35/1 50/1

Get the full Future Book list here