AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Sept. 18, 2018

Kentucky Downs

PAPER CLIP – (Race 4 @KYD, 9/13/18) – 2nd time starter was the speed of the field and she broke on top. But then JR took back and had her in a bad spot racing on the inside over the up-and-down Kentucky Downs turf course. Appeared she might be done when she re-rallied and just missed getting 2nd. Ward filly will be tough with a better ride next time out.

 

Saratoga

KITTY’S LEGACY (Race 4 @SAR 8/16/18) – Freud juvenile filly broke 1 1/2 lengths slow but finished full of run to be a fast closing second behind the winning favorite.  She’s a half to 3 winners on the grass including a stakes winner.

TRUE GOLD (Race 7 @SAR 8/30/18) – this 2yo son of solid NY stallion Frost Giant closed well under Joel Rosario to claim the place spot behind a well meant winner.  Charlton Baker runner showed a lot of talent in debut and shouldn’t be a maiden much longer.

 

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – August 24, 2018

Free Horses to Watch for AGOS visitors.  Watch out for these horses next time out.

DEL MAR

YA GOTTA WANNA (Race 4 @DMR, 8/18/18) – Phil D’amato runner was loaded turning for home but Tiago Periera steadied him hard behind a tiring horse.  Recovered quickly but then swung out very wide in the lane, but by then, the winner Fashion Business was long gone.  Gelding finished with a huge rush and galloped out strong past the wire.

GULFSTREAM PAR

SWEET STORY (Race 9 @GP, 8/18/18) – live turf runner raced inside and was blocked turning for home. Jockey Jose Batista tried to find room up the rail at the top of the stretch but instead got bumped around pretty good.  Finally got clear late but had to settle for a close third in a better-than-it-looks performance.

SARATOGA

INTRODUCED (Race 4 @SAR 8/20/18) – Colts Neck Stable runner by sire El Padrino was purchased for $310,00 at Ocala and was well meant in debut.  Just went a little too fast early and that caught up with her in the final 50-100 yards of this 5 1/2 furlong turf race.   Should be able to dirt or turf.

FIERCE SCARLETT (Race 5 @SAR 8/10/18) – $320,000 Ocala purchase broke slowly in this 5 1/2 furlong turf race but still managed to finish sneaky well, finishing fifth beaten 1 1/4 for all the money.  Can win next out for Chad Brown.

PRECIEUSE ( (Race 5 @SAR 8/3/18) – This filly had not run since June of 2017 but she ran a big race off the layoff for trainer Chad Brown. The Irish bred 4yo filly should move forward off this performance in the De La Rose Stakes.

HERSH  (Race 6 @SAR 8/3/18) – second time starter for owner/trainer Dermot Magner made a huge move to blow by the field and draw off for an impressive score.  In the process she defeated a nice lightly-raced runner from Chad Brown’s barn.  Hersh had trouble in his debut and still ran 2nd, so this effort showed what he could do with a clean trip.

MUCHO  (Race 7 @SAR 8/3/18) – Big, strapping son of Blame looked like a monster in crushing a field of maidens at Saratoga that looked like a good and competitive field on paper.  Trainer Bill Mott may have himself a young runner with huge potential.

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WOW CAT (CHI) (Race 9 @SAR 7/29/18) – Leading trainer Chad Brown had stated prior to the G1 Shuvee that he thought the Chiliean champ would be a tad short going this distance on the dirt, but despite that, she was bet hard and heavy.  She did come up a little short to the eventual gate to wire winner and can move forward off this strong effort.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Aug. 9, 2018

Horses to watch for AGOS visitors.  Put these runners in your Stable Alert service.

ELLIS PARK

BORDINI (Race 7 @ELP, 8/5/18) – live runner from the Amoss barn raced inside of traffic and then got shuffled back to last behind not one but two walls of horses.  Swept to the far outside, which is not where you want to be at Ellis, and unleash a good late run for a sneaky good effort.

SARATOGA

OUR GIRL ABBY (Race 5 @SAR, 7/21/18) – made a wide move turning for home to engage the gate-to-wire winner in deep stretch. Exchanged bumps with that filly and lost the bob in a solid performance.  This was her first start since March and her first for her new barn, who raised her confidently in class.

PUTTHEGLASSDOWN (Race 5 @SAR, 7/21/18) – broke from the rail in her debut at the Spa for Englehart.   Settled in 8th before making a nice run to get up for the place spot behind the winning Asmussen favorite.  The PA-bred daughter of Violence is out of a stakes winning mare.

PICTURE DAY (Race 3 @SAR, 7/26/18) – Linda Rice runner loves to win and she was one of the few that closed against the bias in the slop on this Thursday afternoon.  A stakes winner, this Include mare is tough in the optional claiming sprints.

TRINNI NINJA (Race 10 @SAR, 7/27/18) – Daughter of Trinniberg was one of the few to close against the bias on this day.  She is in good form and might be able to break through for low percentage connections next time out at the state-bred maiden $25,000 (or lower) level.  Demand some value.

CATORIA (Race 5 @SAR 8/1/18) – Wildcat Heir filly outran other speed in this race and took this field gate to wire, beating the heavy favorite at 23-1 for Mike Dini.  She is out of a Meadowlake mare and will be dangerous at 6 1/2 or under.

BROCKMONINOFF (Race 3 @SAR 8/1/18) – George Weaver runner was bet down on the drop in class despite his first race since last October.  Suffered some trouble in this race and came up a little short.  Barn is only 12% off  layoffs and this NY bred should move forward next time out.  Can dirt or turf.

LIGHT THE POSSE (Race 2 @SAR 8/2/18) – Betting favorite was making his second career start off a good 2nd in debut and adding Lasix.  The son of Posse ended up hurt badly by a modest pace set by the eventual gate to wire winner.  Can score at this level next time out.

Handicapping Tip of the Day #44 – Millions of Ways to Lose a Horse Race

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

by Rich Nilsen

It’s sobering, but true.  There are so many ways to lose a horse race, but, it seems, only a few ways to win.  Saturday, June 9 was on the radar for the entire horse racing community, and many outside it, for the prospect of Justify becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner.  There is little doubt that 53 year old Mike Smith had been thinking about it for the three weeks since Justify had captured the Preakness Stakes. In fact, it was reported on NBC that Smith had turned down all types of engagements leading up to the Belmont Stakes, spending a lot of time in the gym and staying strictly focused on preparing for the most important mount of his life.

Unfortunately for me, and several of my friends, Mike Smith also had the mount on my best bet of the day, a horse that would go off at 30-1.  This was a runner that was in the race right before the Belmont Stakes, the G1 Manhattan Handicap going 10 furlongs on the grass.  What follows in my write-up on the top choice at 15/1 on the morning line in my Belmont Stakes card analysis:

Pace Analysis: One Go All Go and Beach Patrol will ensure a quick pace in this 10 furlong turf route. 

Spot Play Selection: # 11 MANITOULIN (20/1) had a difficult trip off the bench last time out and can move forward in a big way on the stretch out to 10 furlongs.  He was a 16-1 value play winner for us last year on this sheet, and we’re going back to the well with this son of Grade 1 winner Soaring Softly.  Look for Mike Smith to sit this longshot in a good tactical position in mid pack and make a run for the lead turning for home.

While Manitoulin was taking the scenic route right from the beginning by staying to the outside 6 wide on the first turn, Edgar Prado was tucking his mount (#13) into the two path.  Manitoulin continued on the far outside the entire backstretch while Prado’s mount was riding the hedge.  Smith made a run for the lead at the top of the stretch but by then his mount has expended an incredible amount of wasted energy.  Despite that he battles gamely and loses by less than a length as Spring Quality comes storming on the outside to get up for the win.

It was a crushing blow 60 minutes before the Triple Crown attempt by Justify, and this loss cost me multiple big scores on the day.

We’ve all been the beneficiaries of bad trips by horses that should have won, but how often do we take notice of that? Let’s say you loved Spring Quality.  Do you really think you would be saying after the race, “boy, I got lucky. If Manitoulin had any type of reasonable trip, he would have won.”  Of course not.  You would patting yourself on the back for coming up with a really nice longshot winner.  It’s human nature to overlook the fortunate ways we benefited from a win, but instead dwell on the terrible losses and how unlucky we were.  It’s important to keep things in perspective.

I’ll put Manitoulin in my horses to watch list and hope to be more fortunate next time around.

Take Advantage of the AGOS Free Resources:

AGOS Horses to Watch

 

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – June 8, 2018

Belmont Park horse racingBELMONT PARK

MANGO M (Race 1 @BEL, 6/7/18) – returned off a layoff and was well meant in his turf debut for trainer Shug McGaughey.  He was making a winning move on the far turn when he got boxed in and shuffled around by Whiskey Run.  Ducked to the inside and tried to win the race up the rail, but meanwhile the winner got a clear run on the outside to easily grab the victory.  Son of Tale Of The Cat wins back at this level next time out.

GULFSTREAM PARK

MASCARPONE (Race 4 @GP, 6/7/18) – jockey Jilver Chamafi was asleep at the wheel aboard this turf horse who had a lot of ‘run.’  Made his move way too late, and in the process, got the runner into some trouble turning for home that cost him all chance for the victory.  Finished a sneaky good 2nd behind the 6/5 favorite in a race he could have won.

PIMLICO

FLASH ATTACK (Race 1 @PIM, 5/19/18) – this gelded son of Harlan’s Holiday has been very consistent since moving into the barn of trainer Michael Stidham.  In the opener on Preakness Day he closed well for third against an impossible early speed bias.  Can win back on a fair track, going short or long.

STILL HAVING FUN (Race 8 @PIM, 5/19/18) – this was another one that was up against trying to rally from off the pace but he did so en route to a solid 2nd place finish behind the heavy favorite. Son of Old Fashioned is really good at 1 mile or less.

TENFOLD (Race 13 @PIM, 5/19/18) – in only his fourth career start this guy ran a very good race in the G1 Preakness Stakes.  He rebounded off a poor showing last time out at Oaklawn Park to be beaten less than one length to Justify.  Son of Curlin has a bright future for barn that is masterful at managing careers.  He could play a major factor in the Belmont Stakes.

 

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch and Trip Notes – April 4, 2018

track announcer with binocularsGULFSTREAM PARK

MISS DEPLORABLE (Race 1 at GP, 3/21/18)  second off the layoff and first time of the turf runner was badly blocked from inside trip while turning for home in this 5 furlong turf sprint. When she finally got clear, she absolutely flew home to just miss.  Galloped out past the fortunate winner.

HOFBURG (Race 14 at GP, 3/31/18) – the Bill Mott trainee got the pace he needed and made a menacingly late move to finish a clear second to Audible in the G1 Florida Derby.  The winner came out on him slightly in mid-stretch, causing him to alter course.  Either way, he wasn’t going to get to Audible. This was only his third career start and the three year old Kentucky Derby hopeful is bred to run all day.  He’ll relish the long stretch in Louisville, Kentucky.

PARX

MR. BRIX (Race 9 at Parx, 3/19/18) – figured to get a perfect set up closing from off the pace in a race loaded with early speed. That is exactly what was happening until one of the horses in a three-way duel fell and caused all sorts of trouble for the runners behind him.  One of those was Mr. Brix who was taken way wide turning for home.  Remarkably, he finished very strong for the place spot.  Can win back in the right spot and with better luck.

Update: Sadly this was the race that was marred by the tragic spill involving veteran jockey Jose Luis Flores.  Please pray for his family and friends.

SUNLAND PARK

LAVISHLEIGH WILD (Race 7 at SUN, 3/27/18) – tough trip for this 2-1 shot in New Mexico in a state-bred for non winners of two races lifetime.  Was stuck racing inside, shuffled way back on the far turn.  He then came flying home up the inside like a real pro and just missed on the wire.

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch – 3/13/2018

track announcer with binocularsWe’re back with a few horses to watch for the AGOS visitors.  Put these runners in your Stable Alert or Stable Mail service.

 

PARX

DO A LEGGER (Parx, race 6, 3/12/18) – this longshot was loaded for bear on the far turn but had no where to run.  It didn’t get any better when they turned for home as he was stuck behind a wall of horses.  It was about 3/8ths of a mile before he got in the clear and when that happened he finished willingly for show.  Absolutely horrible trip.

 

Tampa Bay Downs

DYNASHE (Tampa Bay Downs, race 6, 2/14/18) – Likely winner raced off the pace, made winning move at the top of the stretch but was blocked inside. Lost momentum while winner came clear on the outside. Finished well up the rail for clear 2nd. It was her first start over the Tampa dirt and she should be tough next time out.

 

BOSTON BREEZE (Tampa Bay Downs, race 2, 3/10/18) – maiden ran into a buzzsaw with a $1M Pletcher first time starter and future stakes horse named Ruler Of The Nile.  This lightly raced runner finished strong for trainer Chad Stewart and can move forward in his next outing.

 

QUIP (Tampa Bay Downs, race 11, 3/10/18) – great ride from Flo Geroux and an impressive early turn of foot from this rising star on the Kentucky Derby trail.  The son of Distorted Humor overcame a tough outside post with a short run into the first turn.  Quickly cleared six of the horses to his inside to get into a stalking position behind one of the co-favorites.  Showed a lot of grit to out-game that rival in the lane. He is trained by Rodolphe Brisset, only a 10% trainer, but he is a former assistant to Hall of Famer Bill Mott.

AGOS Horses to Watch – Dec. 19, 2017

Horses to Watch

Aqueduct

12/2/17

Race #1 – #5 – Black Sea – Javier Castellano / Chad Brown

Black Sea = Sent off the odds-on chalk and upon leaving the gate he broke sharply toward the inside. Once he settled out there was a solid bid made down the stretch for third place.

Race #4 – #4 – Forty Winds / Joe Bravo / George Weaver

Forty Winds = Odds-on favorite when they broke from the gate. This was a very impressive mdn winner drawing off by 4 impressive lengths. Follow this gal right back to the windows.

Race #7 – #5 – Silverado Mist / Jose Ortiz / Bill Mott

Silverado Mist = Stumbled badly at the break and once Ortiz got his mount corrected he saved ground and swung out 3 wide on the turn giving a good account of himself.

Turfway Park

12/2/17

Race #3 – #7 – Derby Dreamer / Mike Maker

Derby Dreamer = Hit gate and was away slow. Heavily bet at the windows and just jogged home not giving any effort after a compromised beginning. He’ll have plenty in the tank next out as Maker should be loaded for bear this meet.

Race #6 – #3 – Memorial Blue / John McKee

Memorial Blue = Here was another impressive winner on the night that needs to be played right back. He won by 4 and is even more impressive after breaking awkwardly and gathering his steam to draw off with authority.

AGOS Horses to Watch – Dec. 16, 2017

Horses to Watch to put in your Stable Mail or Stable Alert service.

Aqueduct

12/11/17

Race #3 – Clm $32,000 – 1 mile

Old Up Start – Trainer Steve Asmussen with his go-to-guy Ricardo Santana. He was 6 wide down the backstretch, 5w on the turn, and 4 wide turning for home. He beat right at the wire and you can play him right back.

Race #5 – Claiming $16,000 – 6f

Archival = Joe Bravo in the irons for top trainer David Jacobson. He did a perfect job stalking the pace and got beat at the wire for all the money. This was a very good effort to build and was claimed by Robert Diodoro.

Race #9 = $50,000 Stakes – 6f

Beautiful Buzz – First-time starter by stallion Tuefflesburg. Trained by the Gary Gullo barn and ridden by Angel Arroyo. They teamed up for a very effort solid that will have you chomping at the bit to play him right back.

Gulfstream Park

12/9/17

Race #6 – Pulpit Stks – 1-mile turf

Pony Up = Javier Castello for Todd Pletcher. Taken back at the start and started to move going 5-6 wide on the final turn. He finished up a game second and will be one to keep on your big money radar screen.

AGOS Horses to Watch – Dec. 3, 2017

AGOS Horses to Watch

The winter ovals are opening the doors and we’re ready to follow the horses as they make their next stop. But as we ready for the next oval, we need to keep our eyes open for problem runners who have an excuse. They may not have had a good break, stumbled or blocked down the lane. As handicappers, we are always looking to build our bankroll and there is no better time than now.  Keep your eyes peeled and have these runners on your radar.

Churchill Downs

11/18/17

Race #4 – #9 – Sky Promise – 1 1/16 on the turf

#9 – Sky Promise = Son of Sky Mesa for the Ken McPeek barn. He was adding first-time blinkers and had the services of Robby Albarado. The track was listed as yielding and he seems to enjoy a surface with a little “cut” to it. This day he was tracking from the back and made a strong 4 wide bid to get the show dough.

Race #7 – #2 – Like a Haint – 6f on the main

#2 – Like a Haint = Filly by Archarcharch is fresh off two straight claims and was a beaten favorite the last two. She loves CD going 5/6 ITM. She had the services of apprentice Edgar Morales and was rallying strongly on the outside. The leader and eventual winner floated out a little bit near the wire and won by a head. Some would call it race riding and others would dismiss it as a bad streak of luck. – You’ll need to follow her back as she’ll probably head to Turfway Park.

Fair Grounds

11/18/17

Race #2 – #9 – Much Trouble – 1 and 70 yards on the main

#9 -Much Trouble = Miguel Mena in the saddle for Thom Amoss. Shipping in from Indiana Grand and was a beaten favorite last out. He owned a bullet work over the course and looked to fit. He was carried out at the 3/4 and forced to check up sharply at the 1/8th pole. After all this, he still managed a strong place finish.

Aqueduct

11/11/17

Race #2 – Claiming – 1 mile on the turf – #2 – Ode to the Hunt

#2 – Ode to the Hunt = Jose Ortiz in the saddle and making a drop in class. This son of Artie Schiller has been off for two months and had two solid efforts making a big closing move. He was pinched back at the break and was fanned out 6-7 wide on the turf trying to make up for lost time. He was widest of all down the lane and grabbed the show dough.

Race #6 – Mdn Sp Wt – 7f – #8 – Home Run Maker

#8 – Home Run Maker = Luis Saez in the irons for Jeremiah Englehart and this two-yr-old colt was making his second lifetime start rolling in off a sharp work. Once the gate broke he stumbled badly at the start and rushed up to grab the lead. His rider was forced to alter course around the far turn and all the commotion looked to take a toll on the colt. He still managed an honest 3rd place effort and should be dangerous next out.

Del Mar

11/11/17

Race #2 – Claiming – 5 1/2f on the dirt – #1 – Pattin for a Dance

#1 – Pattin for a Dance = Iggy Puglisi in the saddle and she was making her third start off the layoff move cutting back from a mile to 5 1/2f. – She was 2/3 ITM sprinting and owned a work over the track. She broke tardy and made up tons of ground at a very good price around the turn. Sprinting looks to be a part of her game and should be a factor coming off a 3rd place effort.

Race #4 – Starter $50,000 – 1 mile on the turf – #3 – Red King

#3 – Red King = Son of English Channel was coming off a two-month break and had the services of Flavien Prat. Beaten favorite last out, and the Vlad Cerin barn comes back to win 19% on this move. He did an excellent job tracking and made a horse splitting move at the tip of the lane making good headway. He had a powerful late kick and just ran out of real estate.

Race #8 – OC $40,000 – 5f on the turf – #3 – Painting Corners

#3 – Painting Corners = Filly from the red-hot barn of Peter Miller (36%) cutting back in distance from 6 1/2f to 5f on the green. Beaten favorite last out and the barn comes back to win 25% getting payback. – Flavien Prat in the saddle and was sent off the odds-on favorite. She was tracking just off the pace and when she tried to make a move at Prat’s urging she lacked room and forced to steady off heels. Once a hole appeared she made a good late surge showing promise for next out.

Del Mar

11/19/17

Race #7 – #10- Pants on Fire – 1 mile on the turf

#10 – Pants on Fire = Corey Nakatani in the irons for Richard Baltas. 3-yr-old filly by Sir Percy (GB) is regally bred for the green. She came flying and would have taken flight if she had wings. The way she maneuvered through runners and weaved in and out closing like gangbusters. – Follow her right back.

Race #8 – #2 – Solid Wager – $100k Cary Grant – 7f on the main

#2 – Solid Wager = Peter Miller is the conditioner and he has been red-hot winning 33%. He was a beaten favorite last out and was left at the post this day. – Victor Espinoza saved ground and swung out gamely making a strong 5 wide move. Everything seemed to fit and he’ll give them fits next time out.