AGOS Horses to Watch and Trip Notes – November 9, 2018

Belmont Park horse racingYour complimentary Horses to Watch for AGOS visitors.

Belmont Park

HAIL – (race 7 @BEL 10/17/18) – 3yo Tapit filly who is a half to graded stakes winner Closed Hatches chased the wire to wire winner late after twaddling early fractions. Great comeback with Dylan Davis aboard. Eligible for 1x allowance company.

Churchill Downs

HELLO HOLIDAY (Race 6 @CD, 11/7/18) – Had run 10 of 12 career races on the turf, but was back on the dirt here for Lauer barn.  Got steadied hard on the far turn and nearly went down.  Recovered to race inside turning for home, altered course and then finished well for second.  Sneaky great effort for son of Harlan’s Holiday.

Five horses to watch in upcoming Breeders’ Cup

The Breeders' Cup horse racing #2 – Enable (Breeders Cup horses to watch)

The number two on our horses to watch might just be the best horse in the world running at this time, according to Rogers. The four-year-old filly won the Arc de Triumph, beating out males in the most prestigious race in Europe.
“She was only the eighth horse to win it in back-to-back years. That’s quite an accomplishment. I look for her to spring forward and tackle males again in the Breeders’ Cup turf and she’ll be very tough to beat,” said Rogers.

Five horses to watch in upcoming Breeders’ Cup

WDRB Full coverage: Five horses to watch in upcoming Breeders’ Cup

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – 10/18/18

track announcer with binocularsYour complimentary Horses to Watch and Trip Notes for AGOS visitors.

Belmont Park

HONEY I’M GOOD (Race 2 @BEL 10/5/18) – first time starter took money and ran a hole in the wind.  She showed good early speed and drew off down the lane.  Ears pricked late as she was geared down near the wire.

GULFSTREAM PARK

PEGGITY (Race 9 at GP, 9/28/18) – Terri Pompay turf runner was well spotted in this two-life $10,000 claimer.  She was making a nice run at the top of the stretch when she got completely cut off, losing all chance for the win.  Daughter of Bullet Train can rebound in similar spot.

CONISTON (Race 7 at GP, 9/28/18) – 3yo gelding has shown a lot of heart in his turf attempts and this was solid 2nd place finish at the conditioned $16,000 life level.   May have needed race off short break, as well.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Sept. 18, 2018

Kentucky Downs

PAPER CLIP – (Race 4 @KYD, 9/13/18) – 2nd time starter was the speed of the field and she broke on top. But then JR took back and had her in a bad spot racing on the inside over the up-and-down Kentucky Downs turf course. Appeared she might be done when she re-rallied and just missed getting 2nd. Ward filly will be tough with a better ride next time out.

 

Saratoga

KITTY’S LEGACY (Race 4 @SAR 8/16/18) – Freud juvenile filly broke 1 1/2 lengths slow but finished full of run to be a fast closing second behind the winning favorite.  She’s a half to 3 winners on the grass including a stakes winner.

TRUE GOLD (Race 7 @SAR 8/30/18) – this 2yo son of solid NY stallion Frost Giant closed well under Joel Rosario to claim the place spot behind a well meant winner.  Charlton Baker runner showed a lot of talent in debut and shouldn’t be a maiden much longer.

 

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – August 24, 2018

Free Horses to Watch for AGOS visitors.  Watch out for these horses next time out.

DEL MAR

YA GOTTA WANNA (Race 4 @DMR, 8/18/18) – Phil D’amato runner was loaded turning for home but Tiago Periera steadied him hard behind a tiring horse.  Recovered quickly but then swung out very wide in the lane, but by then, the winner Fashion Business was long gone.  Gelding finished with a huge rush and galloped out strong past the wire.

GULFSTREAM PAR

SWEET STORY (Race 9 @GP, 8/18/18) – live turf runner raced inside and was blocked turning for home. Jockey Jose Batista tried to find room up the rail at the top of the stretch but instead got bumped around pretty good.  Finally got clear late but had to settle for a close third in a better-than-it-looks performance.

SARATOGA

INTRODUCED (Race 4 @SAR 8/20/18) – Colts Neck Stable runner by sire El Padrino was purchased for $310,00 at Ocala and was well meant in debut.  Just went a little too fast early and that caught up with her in the final 50-100 yards of this 5 1/2 furlong turf race.   Should be able to dirt or turf.

FIERCE SCARLETT (Race 5 @SAR 8/10/18) – $320,000 Ocala purchase broke slowly in this 5 1/2 furlong turf race but still managed to finish sneaky well, finishing fifth beaten 1 1/4 for all the money.  Can win next out for Chad Brown.

PRECIEUSE ( (Race 5 @SAR 8/3/18) – This filly had not run since June of 2017 but she ran a big race off the layoff for trainer Chad Brown. The Irish bred 4yo filly should move forward off this performance in the De La Rose Stakes.

HERSH  (Race 6 @SAR 8/3/18) – second time starter for owner/trainer Dermot Magner made a huge move to blow by the field and draw off for an impressive score.  In the process she defeated a nice lightly-raced runner from Chad Brown’s barn.  Hersh had trouble in his debut and still ran 2nd, so this effort showed what he could do with a clean trip.

MUCHO  (Race 7 @SAR 8/3/18) – Big, strapping son of Blame looked like a monster in crushing a field of maidens at Saratoga that looked like a good and competitive field on paper.  Trainer Bill Mott may have himself a young runner with huge potential.

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WOW CAT (CHI) (Race 9 @SAR 7/29/18) – Leading trainer Chad Brown had stated prior to the G1 Shuvee that he thought the Chiliean champ would be a tad short going this distance on the dirt, but despite that, she was bet hard and heavy.  She did come up a little short to the eventual gate to wire winner and can move forward off this strong effort.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Aug. 9, 2018

Horses to watch for AGOS visitors.  Put these runners in your Stable Alert service.

ELLIS PARK

BORDINI (Race 7 @ELP, 8/5/18) – live runner from the Amoss barn raced inside of traffic and then got shuffled back to last behind not one but two walls of horses.  Swept to the far outside, which is not where you want to be at Ellis, and unleash a good late run for a sneaky good effort.

SARATOGA

OUR GIRL ABBY (Race 5 @SAR, 7/21/18) – made a wide move turning for home to engage the gate-to-wire winner in deep stretch. Exchanged bumps with that filly and lost the bob in a solid performance.  This was her first start since March and her first for her new barn, who raised her confidently in class.

PUTTHEGLASSDOWN (Race 5 @SAR, 7/21/18) – broke from the rail in her debut at the Spa for Englehart.   Settled in 8th before making a nice run to get up for the place spot behind the winning Asmussen favorite.  The PA-bred daughter of Violence is out of a stakes winning mare.

PICTURE DAY (Race 3 @SAR, 7/26/18) – Linda Rice runner loves to win and she was one of the few that closed against the bias in the slop on this Thursday afternoon.  A stakes winner, this Include mare is tough in the optional claiming sprints.

TRINNI NINJA (Race 10 @SAR, 7/27/18) – Daughter of Trinniberg was one of the few to close against the bias on this day.  She is in good form and might be able to break through for low percentage connections next time out at the state-bred maiden $25,000 (or lower) level.  Demand some value.

CATORIA (Race 5 @SAR 8/1/18) – Wildcat Heir filly outran other speed in this race and took this field gate to wire, beating the heavy favorite at 23-1 for Mike Dini.  She is out of a Meadowlake mare and will be dangerous at 6 1/2 or under.

BROCKMONINOFF (Race 3 @SAR 8/1/18) – George Weaver runner was bet down on the drop in class despite his first race since last October.  Suffered some trouble in this race and came up a little short.  Barn is only 12% off  layoffs and this NY bred should move forward next time out.  Can dirt or turf.

LIGHT THE POSSE (Race 2 @SAR 8/2/18) – Betting favorite was making his second career start off a good 2nd in debut and adding Lasix.  The son of Posse ended up hurt badly by a modest pace set by the eventual gate to wire winner.  Can score at this level next time out.

Handicapping Tip of the Day #44 – Millions of Ways to Lose a Horse Race

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

by Rich Nilsen

It’s sobering, but true.  There are so many ways to lose a horse race, but, it seems, only a few ways to win.  Saturday, June 9 was on the radar for the entire horse racing community, and many outside it, for the prospect of Justify becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner.  There is little doubt that 53 year old Mike Smith had been thinking about it for the three weeks since Justify had captured the Preakness Stakes. In fact, it was reported on NBC that Smith had turned down all types of engagements leading up to the Belmont Stakes, spending a lot of time in the gym and staying strictly focused on preparing for the most important mount of his life.

Unfortunately for me, and several of my friends, Mike Smith also had the mount on my best bet of the day, a horse that would go off at 30-1.  This was a runner that was in the race right before the Belmont Stakes, the G1 Manhattan Handicap going 10 furlongs on the grass.  What follows in my write-up on the top choice at 15/1 on the morning line in my Belmont Stakes card analysis:

Pace Analysis: One Go All Go and Beach Patrol will ensure a quick pace in this 10 furlong turf route. 

Spot Play Selection: # 11 MANITOULIN (20/1) had a difficult trip off the bench last time out and can move forward in a big way on the stretch out to 10 furlongs.  He was a 16-1 value play winner for us last year on this sheet, and we’re going back to the well with this son of Grade 1 winner Soaring Softly.  Look for Mike Smith to sit this longshot in a good tactical position in mid pack and make a run for the lead turning for home.

While Manitoulin was taking the scenic route right from the beginning by staying to the outside 6 wide on the first turn, Edgar Prado was tucking his mount (#13) into the two path.  Manitoulin continued on the far outside the entire backstretch while Prado’s mount was riding the hedge.  Smith made a run for the lead at the top of the stretch but by then his mount has expended an incredible amount of wasted energy.  Despite that he battles gamely and loses by less than a length as Spring Quality comes storming on the outside to get up for the win.

It was a crushing blow 60 minutes before the Triple Crown attempt by Justify, and this loss cost me multiple big scores on the day.

We’ve all been the beneficiaries of bad trips by horses that should have won, but how often do we take notice of that? Let’s say you loved Spring Quality.  Do you really think you would be saying after the race, “boy, I got lucky. If Manitoulin had any type of reasonable trip, he would have won.”  Of course not.  You would patting yourself on the back for coming up with a really nice longshot winner.  It’s human nature to overlook the fortunate ways we benefited from a win, but instead dwell on the terrible losses and how unlucky we were.  It’s important to keep things in perspective.

I’ll put Manitoulin in my horses to watch list and hope to be more fortunate next time around.

Take Advantage of the AGOS Free Resources:

AGOS Horses to Watch

 

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – June 8, 2018

Belmont Park horse racingBELMONT PARK

MANGO M (Race 1 @BEL, 6/7/18) – returned off a layoff and was well meant in his turf debut for trainer Shug McGaughey.  He was making a winning move on the far turn when he got boxed in and shuffled around by Whiskey Run.  Ducked to the inside and tried to win the race up the rail, but meanwhile the winner got a clear run on the outside to easily grab the victory.  Son of Tale Of The Cat wins back at this level next time out.

GULFSTREAM PARK

MASCARPONE (Race 4 @GP, 6/7/18) – jockey Jilver Chamafi was asleep at the wheel aboard this turf horse who had a lot of ‘run.’  Made his move way too late, and in the process, got the runner into some trouble turning for home that cost him all chance for the victory.  Finished a sneaky good 2nd behind the 6/5 favorite in a race he could have won.

PIMLICO

FLASH ATTACK (Race 1 @PIM, 5/19/18) – this gelded son of Harlan’s Holiday has been very consistent since moving into the barn of trainer Michael Stidham.  In the opener on Preakness Day he closed well for third against an impossible early speed bias.  Can win back on a fair track, going short or long.

STILL HAVING FUN (Race 8 @PIM, 5/19/18) – this was another one that was up against trying to rally from off the pace but he did so en route to a solid 2nd place finish behind the heavy favorite. Son of Old Fashioned is really good at 1 mile or less.

TENFOLD (Race 13 @PIM, 5/19/18) – in only his fourth career start this guy ran a very good race in the G1 Preakness Stakes.  He rebounded off a poor showing last time out at Oaklawn Park to be beaten less than one length to Justify.  Son of Curlin has a bright future for barn that is masterful at managing careers.  He could play a major factor in the Belmont Stakes.

 

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch and Trip Notes – April 4, 2018

track announcer with binocularsGULFSTREAM PARK

MISS DEPLORABLE (Race 1 at GP, 3/21/18)  second off the layoff and first time of the turf runner was badly blocked from inside trip while turning for home in this 5 furlong turf sprint. When she finally got clear, she absolutely flew home to just miss.  Galloped out past the fortunate winner.

HOFBURG (Race 14 at GP, 3/31/18) – the Bill Mott trainee got the pace he needed and made a menacingly late move to finish a clear second to Audible in the G1 Florida Derby.  The winner came out on him slightly in mid-stretch, causing him to alter course.  Either way, he wasn’t going to get to Audible. This was only his third career start and the three year old Kentucky Derby hopeful is bred to run all day.  He’ll relish the long stretch in Louisville, Kentucky.

PARX

MR. BRIX (Race 9 at Parx, 3/19/18) – figured to get a perfect set up closing from off the pace in a race loaded with early speed. That is exactly what was happening until one of the horses in a three-way duel fell and caused all sorts of trouble for the runners behind him.  One of those was Mr. Brix who was taken way wide turning for home.  Remarkably, he finished very strong for the place spot.  Can win back in the right spot and with better luck.

Update: Sadly this was the race that was marred by the tragic spill involving veteran jockey Jose Luis Flores.  Please pray for his family and friends.

SUNLAND PARK

LAVISHLEIGH WILD (Race 7 at SUN, 3/27/18) – tough trip for this 2-1 shot in New Mexico in a state-bred for non winners of two races lifetime.  Was stuck racing inside, shuffled way back on the far turn.  He then came flying home up the inside like a real pro and just missed on the wire.

“Off the Charts” Horses to Watch – 3/13/2018

track announcer with binocularsWe’re back with a few horses to watch for the AGOS visitors.  Put these runners in your Stable Alert or Stable Mail service.

 

PARX

DO A LEGGER (Parx, race 6, 3/12/18) – this longshot was loaded for bear on the far turn but had no where to run.  It didn’t get any better when they turned for home as he was stuck behind a wall of horses.  It was about 3/8ths of a mile before he got in the clear and when that happened he finished willingly for show.  Absolutely horrible trip.

 

Tampa Bay Downs

DYNASHE (Tampa Bay Downs, race 6, 2/14/18) – Likely winner raced off the pace, made winning move at the top of the stretch but was blocked inside. Lost momentum while winner came clear on the outside. Finished well up the rail for clear 2nd. It was her first start over the Tampa dirt and she should be tough next time out.

 

BOSTON BREEZE (Tampa Bay Downs, race 2, 3/10/18) – maiden ran into a buzzsaw with a $1M Pletcher first time starter and future stakes horse named Ruler Of The Nile.  This lightly raced runner finished strong for trainer Chad Stewart and can move forward in his next outing.

 

QUIP (Tampa Bay Downs, race 11, 3/10/18) – great ride from Flo Geroux and an impressive early turn of foot from this rising star on the Kentucky Derby trail.  The son of Distorted Humor overcame a tough outside post with a short run into the first turn.  Quickly cleared six of the horses to his inside to get into a stalking position behind one of the co-favorites.  Showed a lot of grit to out-game that rival in the lane. He is trained by Rodolphe Brisset, only a 10% trainer, but he is a former assistant to Hall of Famer Bill Mott.