Handicapping Tip of the Day
by Rich Nilsen
On a recent Wednesday card at Tampa Bay Downs (Dec. 9, 2020), the 2nd race of the day featured a nice field of maiden special weight runners going 6 1/2 furlongs. The 3/2 morning line favorite in the race was the Eoin Harty-trained Rag Tag, a three year old who sported good form and superior numbers (speed figures, class ratings, BRIS Prime Power rating, etc.). The well-bred colt from famed Calumet Farm also was coming in off a solid workout pattern. What wasn’t there to like?
In Rag Tag’s case, quite a bit. In his brief, nine-race career the colt had been beaten at short odds SIX times. Three of those times he was the heavy favorite, as he was expected to be on this sunny Florida afternoon.
The most dangerous ‘Professional Maidens’ for chalk lovers (bettors who like to wager on favorites) are those that have numerous changes applied by their trainer(s) and continue to fail. Rag Tag was a shining example:
- He had raced at four different distances, from 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
- He had tried the dirt, the turf, and the slop.
- He had been ridden by six different jockeys, including top jocks Luis Saez and John Velasquez, Jr.
- He had run with blinkers and without blinkers.
- He had dropped in class and lost.
- He had attempted five different racetracks.
- He had never gained ground AND passed a horse in the stretch…ever.
- Finally, he had raced for three different barns (Pletcher, Sisterson, and Harty)
All this in a 9-race career. When the morning line favorite has been beaten, especially recently, at short odds, that is the first neon light to the handicapper to dig deeper. Has this horse been in races where he or she should have won previously and didn’t? When there is a lot of evidence pointing out that this horse is a hanger and lacks the will to win, it can open up a big opportunity for the horseplayer. It doesn’t mean you’re going to pick the winner, but it does guarantee that you get extra value on your play(s).
Rag Tag went off at 70 cents on the dollar and was a closing 2nd to the lukewarm 2nd choice, a lightly raced Monmouth Park shipper. He’ll got into his next race with a record of 10-0-5-1 and he’ll be heavily bet again.
You return to your seat with zero minutes to post, grasping the tickets in your hands and praying for your luck to turn around. Darkened Form breaks to a clean lead as Lookin’ Good gets shuffled back into fifth. Your second selection continues on an uncontested lead while Lookin’ Good begins to weave his way through traffic. The favorite gets stopped behind a wall of horses as Darkened Form leads the field to the top of the stretch. You realized that your worst nightmare is coming true, as the 6-1 shot opens an insurmountable lead past the eighth pole. The favorite finally gets clear and closes with a tremendous rush. The rally falls a length short of Darkened Form, who scores at juicy dds.
How do they win? What handicapping patterns do they use?
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