Handicapping Tip of the Day # 63 – What makes a strong play?

October 29, 2020 by Leave a Comment

Profit Risk Evaluation in Horse Racingby Glen S.

My recent blogs have talked about preparing for betting.  Today’s is all about taking advantage of the prep work that you have done.

You have watched the replays, you have handicapped the race card. At this point you should have a good feeling of the races to take a shot at or pass. One other thing to check would be are there any carryovers and, if so, what type of carryovers. Understand the difference between a good carryover and a jackpot carryover. which are more common nowadays.  A good carryover will be paid out that day.

My recommendation if it is a good carryover, start there with those races. Dead money always is in favor of the horseplayer, don’t miss out, but make sure you like the sequence.

Next step start with your strongest races you like, maybe a replay horse or a race with very few unknowns and then build around that race. If I am playing sequence bets, I need to have at least half of the races I like quite a bit. This doesn’t mean I have keys in every race, but does mean I have the max horses in the race I need.

If the bookends of your strongest race are terrible, then it might just be an individual race bet. If the carryover is big enough in the sequence, I will take a small chance and play the sequence.

What makes a strong play?

Here are a few key points I look for to give myself an advantage over the wagering public:
-Understanding race shape.  Fast pace?  Slow pace?
-A good replay that others might have missed.
-Vulnerable favorite that you think will get beat, but the public doesn’t and over bets that horse.
-Very few unknowns in the race, e.g. first time starters.

Always try and find that value, whether it is there because of a carryover, vulnerable favorite or your horse is paying higher than you thought.

Good luck and good racing.

Filed Under: Handicapping 101, Handicapping Tip of the Day, Horse Racing Education, Money Management Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Handicapping Tip of the Day #49 – Why I Passed on $326,599 in Free Money

September 11, 2019 by Leave a Comment

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

by Rich Nilsen

Tuesday night, September 10, 2019, featured a mandatory payout of the Jackpot Pick-5 wager at Prairie Meadows.  This jackpot wager had been building for months and, with closing day on tap, it was time to pay it all out.  This equated to $326,599 in free money in the pool.  Those funds, plus whatever was wagered (minus the 15% takeout), would be distributed to all the winners.

Despite the slow Tuesday of racing, and the fact that Prairie Meadows had recently been hosting quarter horse racing instead of Thoroughbreds, it seemed like everyone knew about it.  Major ADWs were sending out emails.  People were posting all over social media.  It seemed like if you were a horseplayer, especially one who liked horizontal wagers, you were playing it.

I was among them and was planning to participate.  My first concern was the notice that Des Moines, Iowa and the racetrack had been pounded with rain overnight.  How that might affect the track, even though it figured to be dry by post time, was anyone’s guess.

The second and more important issue was the entries.  The fields were large and with not knowing the track very well, that gave me pause.  If I could find one or two standouts, or a couple of races where I could easily narrow the field down to, let’s say, two major players, then this could be an affordable ticket.

However, that was not the case.  I was having trouble narrowing down the contenders in all five races.  Consequently, this sequence looked like it could pay gangbusters.  Of course, that’s the type of Pick-5 I want to be a part of.  I went back through it again, looking to narrow the races down to even 4-5 plays in most races.  I found it very difficult, regardless of the 2.57% edge as indicated by expert Marshall Gramm.*

Pick-5 Cost

A 4 x 4 x 4 x 5  x 5 partwheel is 1,600 combinations.  With the large fields there were 62,370 possible combinations.   At the $.50 base wager, this type of ticket would cost $800.  This was more than I wanted to spend when I wasn’t confident I would hit.  If I was wrong in just one race, I was toast.

The wise decision was to pass despite the six figures of “free” money.   The winning combination ended up returning $1,737.05.  This was a generous payoff considering the results, but it was hardly a life-changing score.

Recognizing when the situation isn’t right for you and passing on the so-called opportunity is very important.  Another big carryover is right around the corner.

Best of luck!

 

*If you want to learn more about the game, follow Marshall’s tweets.

Filed Under: Handicapping 101, Handicapping Tip of the Day, Learn to Handicap, Money Management Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six Surpasses $100,000

October 23, 2017 by Leave a Comment

Press Release

MIAMI GARDENS, FL – The 20-cent Rainbow 6 Carryover Jackpot for Wednesday’s program (10/25/17) at Gulfstream Park West swelled to $100,250.35 Sunday when the popular multi-race wager went unsolved for the 16th consecutive program.

Gulfstream Park paddockMultiple tickets with six winners Sunday returned $9,834.

The Rainbow 6 carryover jackpot is paid out only when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70 percent of that day’s pool goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners while 30 percent is carried over to the jackpot pool.

There will also be a Super Hi-5 carryover of $9,211.20 heading into Wednesday’s program.

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: ,

Expert Selections for Gulfstream Mandatory Payout Day – 6/17

June 17, 2017 by Leave a Comment

Source: Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park’s 20-cent Rainbow 6 could climb as high as $5 million Saturday, or more, due to a mandatory payout.

Saturday’s carryover is $998,088 going into today.

Gulfstream handicappers Ron Nicoletti, Jason Blewitt and Acacia Courtney look at Saturday’s Rainbow 6 sequence.

Ron Nicoletti

We have another exciting and life-altering Rainbow 6 mandatory payout on Saturday with over a $4 million pool expected. My strategy is to always try to find a race where I can ‘single’ a horse so I can add more choices in races that are tougher to handicap.

It starts in Race 6, and I’m going 3 deep in the opening leg with Sunshine Smile, Crazy for Sophia and Go Astray. Race 7 is another wide-open affair, so I’m going 4 deep with Schettino, It’s a Given, my longshot Valoordo and Golden Point. Race 8 is another competitive field, so I’m going 3 deep again with Dardo, Annie’s Big Boy and Haybub. Only 2 deep in Race 9 with Yo No Se and Great Skellig. In Race 10 I’m using 3 selections with Crazy Frank C, Magnanimous Mine and Capital City. Finally in Race 11 my single is multiple graded stakes-placed Enterprising, who should be the odds-on choice in the finale.

Ron’s Rainbow 6 Ticket

Race 6:  1-2-6

Race 7:  1-3-7-9

Race 8:  1-3-7

Race 9:  8-12

Race 10:  3-7-9

Race 11:  3

Total:  $43.20

Acacia Courtney

Saturday’s Rainbow 6 sequence will cover Races 6 through 11, and I will use a single in the final race to anchor my ticket. My best bet, Enterprising, shipping in from Churchill Downs where he faced Grade 1 company last time out after notching his multiple graded stakes victories at the Fair Grounds in the two races prior, will face eleven other foes in the nightcap, the Soldier’s Dancer Stakes. He is the class of the field and in excellent form for trainer Mike Maker, plus has leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione aboard, who is also very familiar with this horse.

The Rainbow 6 starts with a maiden special weight event for two-year-old fillies, and I’ll use a first time starter in Crazy for Sofia as well as the horse with experience, Go Astray. Having my single in the finale allows me to use some coverage in the middle of the sequence, as Races 7, 8, and 9 in particular are great betting affairs with lots of potential for value. I will spread the most in Race 7 using five horses, and hope for some better priced winners in the races leading up to my single.

Acacia’s Rainbow 6 Ticket

R6: 2-6

R7: 1-8-9-10-11

R8: 1-4-7

R9: 1-8-11-12

R10: 1-3-9

R11: 3

Cost – $72.00

Jason Blewitt

Two-year-old filly maidens ring in the opening leg of Saturday’s monstrous Rainbow 6 mandatory payout! Only two of the nine fillies entered have raced and a good firster will beat both the experienced Go Astray and Holy Diver.  It doesn’t take a genius to see that trainer Antonio Sano has a very “live” runner in Crazy for Sofia, a Mizzen Mast firster who attracted leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione.  Sunshine Smiles may get some play as well, given her decent worktab and the presence of an excellent two-year-old sire in Katharos.

A big field of 11 awaits players in race 7, a $10,000 claimer on the turf.  Little in the ability department separates the majority of this group.  Lay It Down had little luck at the draw with his 11 post, but his last couple of races have been good and shortening just a touch to 1 1/16 miles should help him.  Vedelago and Golden Point should both run well for excellent barns.

In the eighth, Dardo ran a weird but gigantic race first time out. He chased early, suddenly dropped back mid-turn, and then re-rallied late while very green. Considering he caught an extremely wet track and ran so well in his debut, it’s a little surprising Dardo drops in for $10,000. Still, he’s an obvious must-use and will likely find himself a single in more budget-minded plays. Those looking to use another horse may want to look at Mongolian Dancer. If this gelding is going to show anything, it will be in this race as he goes turf to dirt for a trainer (David Kassen) who excels with that move.

A dozen turf runners are entered in the ninth on the turf and this leg is a must spread! It’s likely worthwhile to use every bit of Malibu’smostwanted, Yo No Se, Czarmo and Great Skellig.

Tough lower-level claimers meet in race 10 at seven furlongs. Let’s Go Ben goes turf to dirt for trainer Keith Bourgeois, who is very dangerous in this spot. Capital City is clearly the gelding to beat, given his current two-race win streak. If he fails to score the hat trick, the aforementioned Let’s Go Ben, Phish Fan and maybe Fenerbahce are dangerous and must-uses.

An unforgettable day of racing and Rainbow 6 sequence closes with race 11, the co-featured Soldier’s Dance on the turf.  Enterprising is likely to start as a big favorite and single for many players given the top connections in his corner and his classy resume. A B-minus level from Enterprising won’t be good enough to get it done here, but anything above that and close to Enterprising’s best makes him too much racehorse to handle for his foes. Single.

Jason’s Rainbow 6: 

R6:   1,2

R7:   8,9,10,11

R8:   1,4

R9:   2,8,11,12

R10: 1,3,5,6,9

R11: 3

Total Cost is $64

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: , , , ,