Last to First in the Kentucky Downs Turf Challenge Tournament

Colonial Downs Names Turf Course After SecretariatFRANKLIN, Ky. (Monday, Sept. 13, 2021) — Kenny Mollicone, a 47-year-old real-estate developer from Somerset, Mass., is the 2021 National Turf Handicapping Champion, having won the six-day online Kentucky Downs Turf Handicapping Challenge at the FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs.

Mollicone finished with an aggregate total of $5,783.90 Sunday after playing in all three of the individual two-day, live-money competitions. That gave him a comfortable $1,163.90 advantage over runner-up Christy Moore, who finished on top in the second contest.

As the King of the Turf, Mollicone earned $20,000 in prize money and the BetMakers King of the Turf Trophy. He earned a seat and prize pack to the 2022 National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) in Las Vegas in late January by virtue of his second place in the second contest.

If Mollicone was a horse, his race-chart trouble line would read “left at the gate, rallied, won under wraps.”

Santa Anita to return to Hillside Turf course and run 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill in October.

Mollicone tapped out in the first two-day contest staged Sept. 5-6, finishing with a $0 score as Gary Gristick won the competition with a $2,500 bankroll. Undeterred, he finished second at $3,778.40 behind Moore’s winning bankroll of $4,620 in the second tournament Sept. 8-9 and seventh with $2,005.50 Saturday and Sunday in the final leg won by Ed Deicke at $7,392. Contest players were required to bet a minimum amount of money on a minimum of five races each day.

“I was going to bet Kentucky Downs anyway,” Mollicone said by phone Monday. “To be honest, I really didn’t concentrate on the tournament. I usually bet $200, $300, $500 a race. I liked a horse or two, so I screwed around and the horses didn’t win, so I was done (with the first tournament). Some people do so much a race and manage their money. Me, I’m just like if I take a shot and win, great; if not, hey, I’ll do the next tournament. Kind of like that’s what happened.

“Like, I did OK for the tournaments, but I did great betting on my own…. I entered the contest figuring if I like a horse, I’ll take a shot. If he does well and I win, I got money and I keep playing. If not, then I just keep betting on my regular account.”

Mollicone says he played some horses whose double-digit odds seemed too high, but he couldn’t generally remember their names. One name he clearly recalls, however, is Arklow, who got bottled up in traffic in midstretch before getting through late and coming up a neck shy of Imperador in Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 2 Calumet Farm Turf Cup.

“He got blocked, should have won the race for fun,” he said. “He wins that race, I probably win that tournament. I had big doubles going in to him and big doubles going out with him. That’s what kind of killed me. Then (Sunday), I just did what I had to do. I didn’t like anything on the card.”

He said he calculated that he had enough bankroll to win the overall title and quit playing after Sunday’s seventh race — his handicapping there proving correct.

Mollicone is a fan of the competition’s format.

“It kept it interesting,” he said. “I knew I didn’t do well on the first one, but I kind of liked a couple of horses in the second one; it kept me involved. I thought it was great, the way they set up it and the way they did the overall so you’re going to play all three. Whoever came up with it, I think it’s a great idea. It keeps you wanting to do it.

“A couple of guys who beat me (in the third leg), they didn’t do the other tournaments and they didn’t get the $20,000. Shame on them. You’re going to bet Kentucky Downs anyway. It’s great racing. You’ve got great horses. I think the more the people find out about it, especially with the bonus at the end, you’re going to find more people playing next year. Guys are going to kick themselves in the butt for not playing the whole thing.”

Mollicone calls his late father, Bob, the best handicapper he’s ever known. He says the first thing he learned how to read was the Daily Racing Form and went Suffolk Downs and the off-track betting at Rhode Island casinos with his dad, the two also traveling around the country to play contests.

“I love betting turf races,” he said. “It’s a more exciting race, a more true race. And I just love the set up (at Kentucky Downs). They’re going uphill, downhill. I just love it. You look forward to it. I’ve always done well at Kentucky Downs. You get horses who pay $25, $30 that you think should pay $8 or $10. Great racing and great value.”

Tournament Director Brian Skirka called the 2021 Kentucky Downs King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge “a massive success.”

“We had over 400 combined entries over the three contests and awarded over $171,000 in prizes,” he said. “I’d like to thank all the players who participated and Kentucky Downs for putting on six days of world-class turf racing. In just two years, these Kentucky Downs contests have proven themselves to be some of the most-challenging and most-lucrative in the country. I look forward to working with the Kentucky Downs team to grow them even more in the future.”

source: Kentucky Downs

Pro Bettor James Holzhauer’s Key to Success

“Holzhauer has dominated “Jeopardy!” like no one else since the current version of the television game show had its premiere in 1984. He won again on the episode that aired Wednesday, pushing his total earnings above $1.1 million, second on the all-time list behind the legendary Ken Jennings.”

The NY Times interviewed Holzbauer in the spring of 2019, asking him several questions of how he was so successful on the popular show.

The big key to his success was going aggressive from the opening bell.  He would go right for the $1,000 questions, skipping the lower tier amounts.

As stated in the NY piece, you could make an analogy to sports betting or poker tournaments. There are big advantages to having a lot of chips early on in a poker tournament. Consequently, the bettor can make plays that other people can’t.

Would you describe the traditional way of playing “Jeopardy!” as overly risk-averse?

“I would definitely say it’s too risk-averse,” explained Holzbauer.  “The funny thing is, my strategy actually minimizes the risk of me losing a game. There’s times in a football game where a team goes for a big TD pass. If you don’t take a risk like that, you’re not going to win. Really, the big risk is never trying anything that looks like a big gamble.”

You can read the full Times interview of Holzhauer here.

 

Handicapping Tip of the Day #47 – 5 Ways to Conserve Wagering Funds

Handicapping Tip of the Day

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

by Rich Nilsen

One of the biggest challenges horse players face is the ability to manage their money and wager properly without losing focus.  Fail in any aspect of money management and the result is typically disastrous.

This year’s Cheltenham festival offers for new customers will keep you from failing to manage your funds correctly. Here are a few quick tips that will help you stay on track by conserving your wagering funds and not wasting bets on races you shouldn’t be playing.

  1. Stay Disciplined – Start with a defined bankroll for a set period of time and refuse to add to it.  ATMs and deposit options are out of the question.  Treat that money like an investment fund and work with it to turn a profit.  Have a game plan to start and stay disciplined in your wagering.
  2. Pick Your Spots – It’s alright to play every race if you have a small ‘Action Bankroll’ available.  You can use that to make bare minimum wagers if you lack discipline and absolutely have to have some action on a race.  However, the most important thing is to spot play and hammer those races accordingly.  Keep in mind that it’s simply impossible to have a good or strong opinion on every race. You have to pick your spots.
  3. Avoid Playing Out of Proportion – If your spot-play type of wager is $50 on a race, don’t play $200 on a race because you really love it for whatever reason.  Keep your best bet plays in proportion to one another, otherwise you risk damaging your bankroll and possibly even going on tilt.
  4. Choose Your Races Wisely – play to your strengths.  If conditioned claimers are not your thing, then avoid them at all costs.  If you excel at maiden turf races, then be sure to start with those races when you begin your handicapping for the day.  Choose your races wisely and your bankroll will be rewarded for it.
  5. Variance Happens – Understand that you’re not going to win every race, and worse yet, losing streaks are part of the game.  One of the best horseplayers in the country that I know has a stop limit.  If he loses a set amount of money, he stops for the day.  It’s a simple rule and he sticks to it, no matter what.  If it’s a good enough rule for a guy who successfully puts millions through the pari-mutuel windows every year, then it’s good enough for us.

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Become One of the 5% of Punters Who Win with Horse Racing! 

Guest Post: International Correspondent

When you start implementing Optimal Betting strategy you will quickly see improvements in your returns. This theory is relatively easy to learn, too. 

Start Winning More When You Bet on Horse Races

If you are reading this article, it is safe to assume that you are interested in finding ways to win more when you bet on horse races. Unfortunately, or fortunately, most people are not able to pick a winner when it comes to horse racing. In fact, estimates say that as many as 95% of all horse racing punters lose money at this game.

Fear not, however, as the reason that most punters are not successful when it comes to the betting NZ and the rest of the world provides is because they are not like us. This means they do not study form and horse racing, and they do not have a game plan for studying form and betting on horse racing events. In short, they are quite happy to throw their money into the pools impulsively, and simply hope they get lucky. We, on behalf of the 5% that do make money on betting in this fashion, should be grateful!

 

You Need a Sound Strategy to Manage Your Money 

It is not possible to win at horse racing betting, or in any other type of gambling, in fact, without a healthy money management plan in place. What, you may ask, constitutes a valid money management plan? In two words, Optimal Betting.

 

Optimal Betting and the Kelly Criterion 

Optimal betting takes for its base the mathematical principle called the Kelly Criterion. This recommends that you determine what percentage of your bankroll to bet based on your edge over the game.

How to Work Out Your Edge 

Your edge can be expressed as follows:

Edge = W – L/R odds

W:          the percentage of horses that win the race (your win percentage)

L:            the percentage of horses that fail to win the race

 

R odds:  the average win payout, which will be based on R1. in order to determine this, take your

average totaliser win, subtract R2, then divide by 2 once more. Bear in mind that, if you do

not know both your win percentage and your average tote win, you need to start keeping

track of these immediately.

An example of your edge can be calculated using a win percentage of 25% and an average tote of $9, i.e. $9 – $2 = $7, divided by 2 = $3.5.

Edge = 25 -75/3.5 = 3.6

In this instance, Optimal Betting theory holds that you should bet between 3% and 4% of your bankroll on each of the wagers you place.

young attractive British racegoerYou Need to Know Your Edge 

As far as Optimal Betting is concerned, it is very important that you always know your edge. This means that you have to start keeping betting records, as this will allow you to discover what your win percentage and average tote win is. Betting records will additionally help you to identify your strengths and weaknesses as a form student.

A more conservative approach to managing your money would be to bet a flat percentage of your total bankroll on each of the horse races you wish to wager on, for example 2%, or as low as 1%.

Implementing this single strategy will quickly see you starting to see more returns!

 

Handicapping Tips #10 – Know This Before You Make Your 1st Bet of the Day

Handicapping Tip of the Day

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

 

Before you make a single wager on the day, you should know one thing.  What is your bankroll for the day’s wagering, and how much are you going to allot to ‘action’ bets?  For many players, it’s 100-percent action bets, and that is perfectly fine if that is your desired experience.  For others, they have a serious plan for turning a profit, and to do so, you have to have seriously good money management.  Many professional players will not have any ‘action’ bets simply because they don’t need the action, and having a small amount of money on a winner doesn’t do anything for them.

The important thing is that you know what your wagering plan is for the day.  Give that some thought before you place your first wager.