“Off the Charts” Trip Notes – Nov. 19, 2014

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Horses to Watch, or possibly play against, from races run on Friday, Nov. 14, 2014.

Churchill Downs R1 – Maiden Claiming $30,000 – 2yo – 1 and 1/16 miles (dirt)

The winner, SHOWERED, had the “ultimate equipment change” – being a first-time gelding – and showed tactical early foot from the inside and finished best of all after slow fractions to draw off under heavy pressure.  Fits with $25,000 N2L horses on tracks that have deep surfaces (Churchill, Turfway, Oaklawn).

Churchill Downs R3 – N2x/$62,500 Opt. Claimer – 3up Fillies and Mares – 5f (turf)

ANGIES PRIM LADY showed a lot of mental toughness chasing the sharp early leader while four lengths back without coming off the bit.  She eventually knuckled down in the straight and came home a very strong winner.  Definitely an effort worthy of a listed stakes race at Churchill Downs, or perhaps at Gulfstream later.

Del Mar R5 – Cal-bred Maiden Special Weight – 2yo – 1 mile (turf)

P CLUB was forced to circle the entire field 5 wide on the second turn, continued to chase willingly, but could not catch “perfect trip winner” Zinvor, who looks like a good colt too.  Good effort by both horses.  Play P CLUB right back vs. Cal-bred maidens.

 

Possible Play-Againsts

Churchill Downs R6 – Maiden Special Weight – 2yo Fillies – 1 and 1/16 miles (turf)

Runner up (at 26/1) HOLIDAY HOSTESS had a clean trip while wide from post eleven, but did not change leads in the stretch and that is a negative sign.  Fit horses that do not have physical or mental issues change leads and finish better.

Churchill Downs R8 – Maiden Special Weight – 2yo Fillies – 1 mile (dirt)

Even money favorite MAKIN’ SENSE also did not change leads in the stretch in her race.  She may well be vulnerable moving up to face winners next time out.

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 12-time qualifier to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He recently won a $24,000 package into the 2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Championship. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is also a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. He is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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