“Off the Charts” Trip Notes – July 28, 2015

Horses to watch are never automatic bet backs.  Always analyze the horse’s chances against today’s competition and race set up.

Arlington Park

Big Tom Prado (Arlington Park – Race #3 – 7-18-15 – #6) – He was in tight at the break, and took up just a bit to make matters worse. Once he guided to the inside, he saved ground under a wrapped up even effort fourth. If there is a cleaner start, I could see this one having a versatile style that makes him dangerous. Wrapping up late kept plenty.

Belmont Park

Sweet Dreams (Belmont – Race #3 – 7-18-15 – #4) – A very nice New York-bred who has tons of upside. I have watched the replay about a dozen times and cannot figure out how he lost. My only answer was that he hooked a “bear” on this day, and with an effort near the same will have him dancing in the winner’s circle.

Belterra Park, Ohio

Ziete Machos (Belterra Park – Race #6 – 7-18-15 – #8)- A bit fractious in the starting gate, and hustled up into contention. He was five wide in mid-pack, and once he leveled out he made up ground without strong urging. – A clean trip and a better post has him looking tough.

Four Scips (Belterra Park – Race #7 – 7-18-15 – #1) – Hit the gate upon starting, and never looked settled. Once he hustled up into action he looked to be home free when he was bested by a rail skimming win from Star of Aspen. A clean break and honest fractions make this runner ultra-tough.

Want to pick more winners and have fun doing so?  Check out veteran turf writer Tom Amello’s Gateway to the Game guide.

Del Mar Race Course

HEAT – (3 up Cal-Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile and 1/16th on the turf, 7/22/15, Race 5, #9 saddlecloth):  This well bred 3yo by Unusual Heat (he’s a full brother to two stakes winners from 4 named foals) has had his fair share of bad luck in his career after taking significant money in both his starts.  In his debut going “down the hill,” he was extremely wide throughout, then jumped the dirt awkwardly and finished willingly to be denied in a four-horse photo for the win.  Off that effort he was the co-favorite at 4/1 in a big field at Del Mar going a mile and 1/16th.  Right out of the gate the #10 horse ducked in, causing HEAT to take up sharply.  After this mishap, the rider on Heat decided to try to get a mid-pack position, but in doing that Heat was never able to “slot in” to save any ground and was 3 to 5 wide the entire race.  Give this one another chance at Del Mar.

Monmouth Park

Hyman Roth (Monmouth – Race #5 – 7/24/15 – #9) Daniel Centeno had the call and this effort may be a little deceiving. He broke alertly and played chase all the way around the track. When the timer hit 1:10.83, he was three-wide and finished an even effort. Give him a regular pace scenario and a better post draw and we may see a winner who will reward his backers. – Just like the “Godfather” movie; ” Hyman Roth always makes money for his partners

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Rich Nilsen is an 18-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 of the NHC twice. A former executive with Brisnet.com and a member of the NHC Players’ Committee, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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