Is Fantasy Football A Game of Skill or A Game of Luck?

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Skill or Chance fantasy sports

DALLAS – DEC 14: Taken in Texas Stadium on Sunday, December 14, 2008. Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo waits for the snap from the center.

We could talk all day about probability theory, the law of large numbers, the gambler’s fallacy, Bertrand’s box paradox, the Monty Hall problem and other brain-teasing puzzles of probability and still fail to come to grips with Derrick Henry’s improbable fantasy football performance on Thursday (12/6/18) for the Tennessee Titans.

You could not have predicted the running back’s near 50-point performance. And nobody did because Henry wasn’t even the most productive fantasy back on his own team before re-entering the American sports consciousness for the first time since 2015 when he won the Heisman Trophy while playing at Alabama.

There was good news and bad news in all this, depending on your league and your perspective. Unless you play in a touchdown-only league or a very large standard league, chances are you weren’t victimized by Henry’s career day in Nashville, because your opponent had him on the bench. Nor did you benefit, because you also had him benched.

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 16-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He cashed on the NHC Tour for 2018 with a 19th overall finish. Rich was also a winner of a $24,000 package into Kentucky Derby Betting Championship I. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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