How to Improve Your Handicapping in the New Year

by Glen S.

Was 2020 a successful year in your handicapping? If so, great, but why not make it even better. If wasn’t a good year, why do you think that was? Do you know where you struggled the most? Was it playing too many sequence bets or betting under-valued horses?

Every horse player needs to know their strengths and weaknesses. If you don’t, you will not know when to take that big shot on a horse or wager.

I find the biggest mistake by horseplayers is playing the same way year after year and not trying to improve their handicapping.  It’s a ‘plan’ doomed to fail.

What have you done lately to improve?

Here are a few things to do more of in the New Year that will improve your horse racing handicapping:

  • Watch more replays.
  • Be better prepared before the races start.
  • Look at some of the new/old handicapping software out there, e.g. DRF’s Formulator.
  • Be more adaptable to the race.
  • Avoid having the same type of bet for most races.

So many horse players think they are great handicappers.  Why is that? If everyone was so good, more favorites would win and the prices would be lower. Needless to say, that is not the case.

Ask yourself, what would you rate yourself as a horseplayer overall from a scale of 1 to 10 ?

There has been a study in regards to people rating themselves in the field they are in. The study has found that the best of the best in their field rates themselves around a 4.5 out of 10.  Why do you think they rate themselves so low?  It is because they never stop learning. If you rated yourself at 7 or higher, you may want to think again. One of my favorite lines is “What you don’t know, you don’t know?” Think about that line and understand why that is so powerful.

Be better in 2021.  Become a better handicapper.

Happy New Year everyone!

 

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is an 18-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He cashed on the 2018 NHC Tour with a 19th overall finish. Rich was also a winner of a $24,000 package into Kentucky Derby Betting Championship I. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

Comments

  1. >>>I find the biggest mistake by horseplayers is playing the same way year after year and not trying to improve their handicapping. It’s a ‘plan’ doomed to fail.<<<>>So many horse players think they are great handicappers. Why is that? If everyone was so good, more favorites would win and the prices would be lower. Needless to say, that is not the case.<<>>Avoid having the same type of bet for most races.<<>>If everyone was so good, more favorites would win and the prices would be lower<<<
    Another thing I failed to mention above is the phenomenon of "tail bias" When win betting, favorites are underbet, longshots way overbet. That's quite understandable.
    This begs the question, what is your percentage of winning favorites, and their average mutuel? And, conversely, what percentage of losing favorites are you able to exclude, average mutuel?

    Finally, I invite you to join the fray, and attempt to "Beat Ray (Paulick) in the Del Mar contest which begins shortly. I have never seen you actually analyze a horse race (parimutuel racing?). One race a day shouldn't interrupt your romantic weekends. I give Ray much respect for putting himself out there.
    Phew, thanks for the platform

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