Handicapping Tips # 9 – Bet Against this Type of Favorite

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Handicapping Tips # 9 – Bet against the favorite who draws a difficult post

Determining which public choices (a.k.a. favorites) are good bet-againsts on any given card can be a major key to a horseplayer’s success.  One of the best and easiest ways to do this is to look through the entries at your track and determine which of the favorite may be severely hampered for the post position.  If you know your track well, then you know which post positions are a disadvantage.  It may be the inside posts in a turf sprint, or the outside posts in a two turn race that feature a short run into the first turn.  Use this knowledge to your advantage.

A good example of this came on Wednesday, April 8 at Keeneland.  #11 Genre was dropping out of graded stakes company for trainer Todd Pletcher, getting blinkers on, and looked to have this field ‘over a barrel.’  However, her outside draw with the quick run into the first turn at Keeneland was a reason to look to beat this 3yo filly.  Although she secured the early lead around that turn and into the backstretch, she was used up doing so and had no answer for the late run of the winner, #6 Ahh Chocolate.  All of the Pick-3 wagers involving this race paid extremely well.

Did you miss?  This is Why You “Need to Consider the Favorite”

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 16-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He cashed on the NHC Tour for 2018 with a 19th overall finish. Rich was also a winner of a $24,000 package into Kentucky Derby Betting Championship I. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

Comments

  1. I have been using Brisnet for over ten years now and I find myself wondering if there is a better service out there for handicapping. I am competing in Derbywars and won two contests, but since that strong beginning I have basically top out and realize there are much better handicappers out there. I am wondering what other services they might be using. I heard of Thorograph, but I am just wondering if you have any other ideas to help me breakthrough this plateau. Thanks dominic

    • Both Brisnet and Thorograph are excellent, but the latter is very expensive to use. I would suggest reviewing as many races as possible. It’s no different than an experienced poker player playing thousands of hands.

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