Handicapping Tip of the Day #16 – Favorites to Play Against

4 Times to Play Against the Favorite

by Glen S.

Everyone loves to pick a longshot or tout a big price, but when is the time to actually bet on the longshot? I would base a longshot on the price of the horse that it will pay when he wins. A longshot is not a horse with a morning line of 10-1 that goes off at 2-1. Clearly the line maker made an error and I wouldn’t consider that a longshot.

Finding a longshot can start with the expected favorite in the race. We know the favorites win around 35% of the time and sometimes you look at the favorite and need to realize there is very little chance he gets beat.

Here are a few times to try and beat the public choice

• The horse is trying something different, such as stretching out in distance, moving to the turf, trying an off track, etc.
  The runner is coming off a month or longer with no activity, e.g. workout.
  The favorite is dropping in class off a good effort, for example, a second place finish in a higher class maiden race.
  The race shape is against him, for example, a-need-the-lead horse with lots of other speed in the race.