Handicapping Tip of the Day #16 – Favorites to Play Against

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4 Times to Play Against the Favorite

by Glen S.

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

Everyone loves to pick a longshot or tout a big price, but when is the time to actually bet on the longshot? I would base a longshot on the price of the horse that it will pay when he wins. A longshot is not a horse with a morning line of 10-1 that goes off at 2-1. Clearly the line maker made an error and I wouldn’t consider that a longshot.

Finding a longshot can start with the expected favorite in the race. We know the favorites win around 35% of the time and sometimes you look at the favorite and need to realize there is very little chance he gets beat.

Here are a few times to try and beat the public choice

  • The horse is trying something different, such as stretching out in distance, moving to the turf, trying an off track, etc.
    The runner is coming off a month or longer with no activity, e.g. workout.
    The favorite is dropping in class off a good effort, for example, a second place finish in a higher class maiden race.
    The race shape is against him, for example, a-need-the-lead horse with lots of other speed in the race.

 

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 16-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He cashed on the NHC Tour for 2018 with a 19th overall finish. Rich was also a winner of a $24,000 package into Kentucky Derby Betting Championship I. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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