Handicapping Tip of the Day # 53 – Try to love them before you bet them

By ART PARKER

It really makes no difference what handicapping method(s) you use to provide answers for who you wager on in horse racing. What’s important is how you use the answers you come up with. If you use a system and your system says bet number five (#5) then it is unwise to go and make the bet without examining the value of your wager.

I had a friend that utilized some sort of pace formula that, by his own admission, won about 30% of the time. I would shake my head at him when he whooped it up when his system horse would win at odds on. I could not get him to understand that you will lose money (even with a nice 30% strike rate) if winning wagers don’t return enough money.

John Templeton, the legendary mutual-fund manager who was a pioneer of international investing and later committed much of his fortune to scientific and religious causes, was known as the “Owl of Wall Street.” He earned a reputation for bargain-minded stock selection that consistently rewarded shareholders in his Templeton Funds family. Templeton’s number one rule was to look for and buy bargains. Learn from your mistakes was another one of his top rules.

If you have ever been to a brokerage firm you have probably seen the board flashing symbols and numbers across. As a stock is traded its most recent price is given. This is really no different than going to the track since the tote board gives you the information to determine what a horse is going for in terms of odds. If you put Templeton’s practice into horse playing the number one rule would be to bet on horses that are better than their odds; in other words look for a bargain.

Some of the best advice I ever received came years ago from one of the best horseplayers I ever knew. He had a great way to explain bargains at the track.  He once said, “If I think a horse should be 2-1 and he is on the board at 5-1, I really like him. If he goes up to 8-1 I really love him.”

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 16-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He cashed on the NHC Tour for 2018 with a 19th overall finish. Rich was also a winner of a $24,000 package into Kentucky Derby Betting Championship I. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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