Handicapping Tip of the Day #37 – Never Be Afraid of this Type of Favorite

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Handicapping Tip of the Day

by Rich Nilsen

There is one particular type of favorite that the experienced horseplayer should never fear.   I’m talking about the type of public choice, especially a maiden, who always runs well enough to get bet next time out.  His or her past performances always look like a horse in sharp form, with strong speed figures, and running lines that include a lot of 1-2-3s.  But what is always in common is a lot of “two’s” and “three’s” at the finish position.  This is the type of runner that lacks the will to win.  The horse is talented.  The  horse has speed.  The horse runs good enough to nearly get his picture taken, but the horse doesn’t want to “go on” and win the race.

A recent race at Finger Lakes was a perfect example of a money-burning maiden that fit this bill.  November 15, 2016 at Finger Lakes featured the heavy favorite Hazen’s Notch.  The New York-bred of D’Funnybone was seven-for-seven in the money racing at distances from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 mile and 70 yards and over tracks labeled fast, good and sloppy.

The versatile gelding was coming off another ‘good’ effort, a 2nd place finish at 3-1 odds at the maiden special weights level only 14 days prior. But look closer and this horse was life and death to hang on for second while drubbed 8 lengths by another rival.  In only one of his last five races had this horse gained ground in the stretch. In all but one of his seven career races he went off at odds of 3-1 or lower.  He was expected to win nearly every one of these races by many handicappers and had failed.

On this day Hazen’s Notch was odds-on during most of the wagering before finally settling at 1.05 to 1 at post time.  He finished third, beaten only two necks for all the money, behind $18.40 winner Winlocs Utopia.

The chart caller’s comments read:  Hazen’s Notch was well placed along the two path, angled out in the lane, gained some and hung.

false favorite

 

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 12-time qualifier to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He recently won a $24,000 package into the 2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Championship. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is also a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. He is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

Comments

  1. Denny Lapikas says:

    Rick
    Do you have a book with all your handicapping tips or they only on A Game of Skill.
    Thank you
    Denn

  2. Rich….I sure enjoy and value your insight with A Game of Skill. Aptly named for sure. Think what you are doing for the sport is great and look forward to benefitting from your articles. Great accomplishments you have had in the NHC! All the best.

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