Exacta Strategies – Thinking Outside the Box

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by Lenny Moon

Reprinted with permission

The Exacta is many horseplayers first taste of exotic wagering.

In horse racing the Exacta requires the bettor to correctly select the first two finishers in a race.

There are many ways to play the Exacta but most horseplayers are taught to play the Exacta in the most inefficient way, thus foregoing the opportunity to maximize their returns.

I was guilty of falling into the trap because it was the way everyone played the Exacta, in fact it was the way the racing program suggested to play.

Lucky for you I am here to teach you how to maximize your returns when betting the Exacta but before we get to that let’s take a few minutes to discuss the wrong ways and why they should be avoided.

Exacta Box

The most common way to bet the Exacta is by boxing two or more horses.  This is the strategy referred to earlier.

Boxing your horses means they can come in any order so long as they finish first and second.

At first glance, and to a novice, this might look like a great strategy because it provides a little cushion in case you are not perfect in your handicapping.

exacta horse racing basicsWhat it also does is minimize returns because you are giving each combination an equal chance of winning.

While there may be a rare occasion when you think two horses have an equal chance of winning or running second that should be the exception not the rule.

Betting an Exacta Box is not only inefficient it can also be costly depending on the number of horses you use.

A two horse Exacta Box costs $2 (2 x 1 = 2) for each $1 bet, a three horse Exacta Box costs $6 (3 x 2 = 6) for each $1 bet, a four horse Exacta Box costs $12 (4 x 3 = 12) for each $1 bet and so on.

It may seem like a good way to bet but the cost and the likely return suggests otherwise.

For example suppose you bet a three horse Exacta Box for $1.  Your investment would be $6.

If two of your horses are favorites and run one-two you might make a few dollars or depending on how much was bet on the combination you could conceivably lose money.

The only benefit of boxing an Exacta is it will produce a higher win rate, meaning you will cash more tickets.  In return, however, you will be minimizing your profits.

The most efficient way to bet the Exacta is by weighting each combination.

Exacta Wheel

The second most common way to bet the Exacta is a wheel.

An Exacta Wheel involves picking one horse to win and “wheeling” it with the rest of the field.

If your horse wins you win the Exacta but again you are not maximizing your returns.

You are actually putting yourself in a position that adds more luck to the equation then necessary.

Basically you are hoping your horse wins the race and the longest shot runs second.

Unfortunately there is a much better chance one of the logical contenders will fill out the Exacta.  That result will produce a much lower payout than if the longest shot ran second.

Let’s say you find one horse you really like to win but you cannot figure out who will run second.  The best option would be to bet the horse to Win and forego the Exacta.

The more likely decision will be wheeling your horse in the Exacta and praying for a long shot to come in second.

If the race had ten horses the Exacta wheel would cost $9 (1 x 9 = 9) for each $1 bet.

In a ten horse field the Exacta will usually pay more than $9 for a $1 bet so if your horse wins you will most likely make a profit but at what cost?

Let’s say your horse is 3/1 and wins.  You bet a $1 Exacta Wheel which costs $9.

A logical horse runs second and the Exacta returns $20 for a $1 bet.

You excitedly make your way to the betting window to collect your $11 profit.

What you fail to realize is you left money on the table.

Had you bet that same $9 on your horse to Win you would have won $36 (9 x 3 + 9 = 36) for a profit of $27 (36 – 9 = 27).

The Win bet would have made you a profit of $27 while the Exacta only netted you $11.

There will be instances when a long shot finishes second and the Exacta returns more than the Win bet but more often than not one of the favorites will run second thus reducing the return.

Exacta Part Wheel

The Exacta Part Wheel is a step in the right direction.

This bet involves wheeling your horse over a few other horses.

This is a much better strategy than wheeling the entire field second because it costs less.

In the same example from the previous section let’s say you decide three horses can run second behind your top pick.  A $1 Exacta Part Wheel would cost $3 (1 x 3 = 3) for each $1 bet.

Now you have shifted the odds in your favor.

The $3 Win bet would only return $12 (3 x 3 + 3 = 12).

The Exacta would return $20 for each $1 bet resulting in a profit of $17 (20 – 3 = 17).

In this scenario the Exacta returned $5 more than the Win bet for each $1 bet.

A more effective way to play the Exacta Part Wheel is to bet more than a dollar on the combinations.

I used this strategy on Belmont day in the Easy Goer Stakes.

I thought the favorite, Teeth of the Dog, was the most likely winner.  He went to post at odds of 2/1, not very appealing for a Win bet.

I decided there were two horses that were most likely to finish second, Skyring (6/1) and Fast Falcon (27/1).

I gave both horses the same chance of running second so I bet a $5 Exacta Part Wheel with Teeth of the Dog over Skyring and Fast Falcon.

As expected Teeth of the Dog outclassed the field and won 3 3/4 lengths.

Skyring faded to last in the stretch but long shot Fast Falcon closed stoutly and just got up for second. The $5 Exacta returned $418.75.

The $10 Win bet on 2/1 Teeth of the Dog would have returned a measly $30.50.

In this situation the Exacta Part Wheel provided the maximum return.  It also showed that you can make money betting favorites, if you do it the right way.

Weighted Exacta

The most efficient way to bet the Exacta is by weighting each combination.

In the previous example had I thought Fast Falcon was more likely to run second I could have spent the same $10 by betting a $7 Exacta of Teeth of the Dog over Fast Falcon and a $3 Exacta of Teeth of the Dog over Skyring.

Weighting your Exacta combinations is the best way to maximize your returns long term.

Instead of being lazy and boxing your horses or wheeling them you should take a few minutes to think about what chance each horse has of winning and/or running second and then bet accordingly.

An alternate example of the Weighted Exacta would be if you like two horses that you think will run first and second.

Let’s say the first horse is twice as likely to win as the second.  For the same $10 you could bet a $7 Exacta with first horse over the second horse and a $3 combination reversing it.

If your horses run one-two you win and if you are correct that the first horse is more likely to win then you will be rewarded accordingly with a better return.

Final Thoughts

The Exacta is a great way to make money betting on horses.

Unfortunately most horseplayers are taught to bet the Exacta inefficiently by either Boxing it or Wheeling their horse.

Smart horseplayers, which includes you since you just read this, will instead bet Exacta Part Wheels or Weighted Exacta’s.

The former group may cash more tickets but the latter group will make larger profits.  To recap here are the important points to remember:

  • Boxing an Exacta is both lazy and inefficient
  • Betting an Exacta Wheel is injecting more luck into the equation
  • Betting an Exacta Part Wheel is a step in the right direction
  • Weighting an Exacta is the most efficient way to bet the Exacta and will produce the greatest returns long term
  • The Exacta is sometimes a better alternative than a Win bet, especially if you like the favorite
  • A Win Bet is sometimes the better choice, particularly in cases when you have no opinion on who will finish second

I hope this helps you make more money betting the Exacta, it has done so for me.

If you have others ways of betting the Exacta please share them in the comments below.

If you found this post to be helpful please share it using the social media buttons below, and if you haven’t already done so, join the AGameofSkill.com monthly newsletter by leaving your email address in the form below.

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 12-time qualifier to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He recently won a $24,000 package into the 2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Championship. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is also a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. He is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

Comments

  1. My friend na I have had a lot of success in “chaos” grass races having 11 or more runners playing a $1 ex part wheel (1-2-3) over (1-2-3-4-5-6-7) for $18. It is up to the player to play another $1 ex part wheel 1/(2-3-4-5-6-7) for an additional $6. Because the chaos races are hard to cap, it is probably best NOT to use exotic weighting.

    On my own in Australia, where the average field size is 13 horses, it seems a good strategy is to win bet seperately two BEST VALUE horses, and box horses (1-2-V1-V2). Generally big fields in Australia are chaotic in nature, and the weighting o exactas probably aren’t the best play. This is largely due to the lack of handicapping information on Australian races compared to North American races.

  2. Fellow disciples of the discipline:

    Please search “equinometry” for clues to the veracity and character of the author of this article. Total fraud.

    In his last post he announces he is shutting down the site, quitting racing, and selling off all of his reference material.

    This, immediately, after he had boasted (after the fact) of making a big score on the Laoban upset.

    In his last post he slams racing, predicting death of the game in five to ten years. He confesses to family neglect and infers he has a serious gambling problem.

    I have to say I saw it coming. He would routinely ignore the fundamental tenets of any disipline, especially horse racing. One never calculates an roi based on one wager which Lenny loved to do. Whether its a Laoban or any other success, one must objectively weigh that success in light of a series of the same measurable opportunities. Otherwise, the wager is a gamble, not an investment. Gambling is losing, investing is winning.

    Finally, racing is structured on the parimutuel system, i.e., bettors are competing against one another. Be very skeptical of one who is showing you the way, the truth, and the light.

    As author Mark Cramer stated, “The value of information is inversely proportional to its dissemination.”

    Lao Tzu got it right thousands of years ago when he said, “He who knows does not speak, he who speaks does not know.”

  3. Alan….You are being too tough on Lenny.He needs help.

  4. Frederick D. Leiserson says:

    I think he is being a little tough on him, but I think he has a point

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