AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Feb. 1

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GULFSTREAM PARK

PARTNER’S HOPE (Race 2 at Gulfstream Park, Jan. 23, 2021) – This was a live longshot tabbed by my buddy Justin Dew over at LoneSpeed.com.  Unfortunately, the 11-1 shot was ridden by Corey Lanerie, who gives more bad rides than a 10lb bug boy.  The maiden runner began to make a huge move heading into the far turn when Lanerie rode him up on the heels of a horse, causing a hard steady and loss of 2-3 lengths in precious momentum.  He re-rallied on the inside down the lane was only beaten over  a length for all the money.  Look for this More Than Ready colt on the dirt or turf with – hopefully – a different rider up next time.

TWICE TOO MANY (Race 6 at Gulfstream Park, Jan. 28, 2021) – This well bred first time starter from the Bryan Lynch barn was bet down to 4/5 after the late scratch of the favorite.  The 3yo son of the speedy The Big Beast is bred to win early.  He’s a half a millionaire Patternrecognition, along with several other early winners.  In his debut here he broke in 4th and then moved up between horses on the far turn but the winner for Mark Casse ran away from the field.  He’ll move forward off this start and win soon for Lynch.

OAKLAWN PARK

HIDDEN SCROLL (Race 7 at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 24, 2021) – This ‘over hyped’ runner who has simply never lived up to the reputation that he garnered early in his career.  However, over the winter he moved into the barn of potent trainer Brad Cox, who as we say ‘has the Midas touch.”  He returned in a 6 furlong allowance race in the mud and had a less than ideal trip.  He was shuffled back early and then steadied briefly on the backstretch, all the time with the jock half standing up in the irons.  His feet were on the dashboard, indicating his mount was loaded for bear.  When asked, Hidden Scroll swept up 5 wide on the turn and then cruised  to an easy score.  Next up a return to stakes company.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

SUCCESSFUL LEGACY (Race 3 at Tampa Bay, Jan. 9, 2021) – 3yo filly making third lifetime start and only 2nd on the dirt looked like a winner in deep stretch but was run down by her stablemate.  Gerald Bennett runner can dirt or turf.

JOE MAN JOE ( (Race 6 at Tampa Bay, Jan. 9, 2021) – The son of Uncle Mo closed like a freight train in his maiden breaking win at Tampa early in the meet, and then came back here to run a very nice 2nd on the turf behind a well meant Michael Trombettea runner that shipped up from Gulfstream Park.    Figures tough at 1x level on dirt or turf next out.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Jan. 26

Tampa Paddock

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SANTA ANITA

CHARMAINE’S MIA (Race 8 at Santa Anita, Jan. 9, 2021) – Moved into the barn of Phil D’Amato and what do you know – the mare improved by leaps and bounds.  At 16-1 odds she dominated a very strong group here that included multiple stakes winners.  There is no reason she can’t keep running big in turf sprints for her new outfit.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

JUSTLYREWARDED (Race 6 at Tampa Bay Downs, Jan 6, 2021) – Broke from a tough outside post and then raced wide throughout.  Worse yet, the 7yo gelding was racing against the grain of an inside speed bias.  Better-than-it looks 4th place finish for owner/trainer Peter Knoll.

MY BROTHERSLEDGE (Race 7 at Tampa Bay Downs, Jan 6, 2021) – The best closer in this turf race  made a strong early run against the eventual wire to wire winner.  The 6oy was the only horse with a shot down the stretch but had to settle for 2nd.  He ran a ‘winning race’ with new jockey Hector Diaz in the irons.

 

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – Oct. 25

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KEENELAND

TRIBULATION (Race 5 at Keeneland, Oct. 16, 2020).  Toss this start as this second time starter stumbled badly at the start.  It was his first start going two turns and as a son of Medaglia D’oro he is clearly bred for a route of ground.  Ran very well in his debut prior for trainer Dallas Stewart.

LITTLE BELLA (Race 10 at Keeneland, Oct. 16, 2020).  Paddy O’Prado filly has really improved since the barn moved her to the dirt.  Despite the rise in class she surged late to catch a nice horse who looked home free down the lane.  Although she can turf, she looks better on the main track.

PIMLICO

COMPLETED PASS (Race 6 at Pimlico, Oct. 1, 2020) – The Robert Bone runner broke a step slow in this 5 furlong turf dash in honor of the late, great Jim McKay.  He raced between horses early before unleashing a powerful late run to nearly catch the front-running winner.

GIGGLING (Race 8 at Pimlico, Oct. 1, 2020) – This filly tried to steal the race in a 5 furlong turf dash that was loaded with early speed but she faltered late over the yielding ground.  Look for her back on her preferred dirt surface, especially in a situation where she can get loose on the front end.

French Two Year Old Runners to Watch

French horse racing blurrAGOS Horses to Watch.  With Sunday’s Group 1 Prixy Morny in the books, here are some French juveniles to watch according to the PMU.

Tiger Tanaka

Trained in France by Charley Rossi, Tiger Tanaka made a surprising step up in grade after four consecutive victories in claiming company. After placing third in the Group Two Prix Robert Papin (1200m), the filly took advantage of rain-affected conditions to record a first Group success in the Group ThreePrix Francois Boutin over 1400m last Sunday at Deauville. It is difficult to know how good Tiger Tanaka is, but she cannot be ignored if ground favours again.

Handicapping Tip of the Day #61 – improve your handicapping with this expert advice.

Livachope

Livachope extended her unbeaten run to three with a success in the Group Three Prix du Bois (1000m) at Longchamp on 2 July. The filly was asked to quicken by jockey Anthony Crastus in the closing stages and ran out a comfortable three-quarter length winner. A first Group winner for sire Goken, Livachope looks ready to step up against tougher competition and has an entry in the Prix Morny.

Cairn Gorm

Cairn Gorm added a third consecutive victory when scoring by one length in the Group Three Prix De Cabourg (1200m) at Deauville on 2 August. Trained in the UK by Mick Channon, Cairn Gorm will follow the same route as the 2019 Prix de Cabourg winner, Earthlight, when seeking Group One success in the Prix Morny.

Plainchant

Plainchant appeared to appreciate the step up in distance when scoring over 1200m atLa Teste de Buch in early June, having placed third on debut over 1000m. The Gregorian filly completed a double when winning the Listed Criterium Du Bequet over the same course and distance and holds an entry for the Prix Du Calvados (1400m) at Deauville on 22 August.

Midlife Crisis

Midlife Crisis showed plenty of promise when scoring by five lengths in an unraced conditions event over 1400m at Deauville on 4 August. Sired by Wootton Bassett, recently purchased by Coolmore as a future Champion sire prospect, connections will be hoping further success will be on the cards.

Ventura Tormenta

A surprise winner of the Group Two Prix Robert Papin (1200m) at Chantilly on 19 July, Ventura Tormenta may be looking to return to France following a disappointing run in the Group One Phoenix Stakes (1200m) at the Curragh. He’s won twice from five racecourse starts and trainer Richard Hannon is not adverse to travelling his juveniles.

Sealiway

Sealiway is trained by Frederic Rossi and has been kept busy with three victories and one placing from four career outings. The colt impressed many with a five-length success in the Listed Prix des Jouvenceaux et des Jouvencelles (1400m) at Vichy on his latest start and is expected to excel over 1400m.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – July 12th

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BELMONT PARK

BLACKJACK DAVEY (Race 3 at Belmont, 7/2/2020) – suffered a very troubled trip when 8th in debut for Linda Rice.  Returned here with a monster performance over what looked like a competitive field.  Geared down final 1/16th.  3yo Posse gelding has a future.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

GOLD BUTTON (Race 1 at CD, 6/25/2020) – this first time starter from an 8% debut barn had a sneaky fast work prior and he ran to it here.  Overall a less than ideal trip to win going away as much the best.  Can likely step up to the bottom allowance ranks.

JACK LUVS NOVA (Race 5 at CD, 6/25/2020) – Al Stall firster broke 1 1/2 lengths slow but then made a strong, sustained run to finish a non-threaten third.  Doesn’t need to move forward much to hit the winner’s circle next time.

RISKY MANDATE (Race 7 at CD, 6/28/2020) – Big comeback race for this talented filly.  The winner Unique Factor, who was also dropping out of stakes company, got the jump her and out-closed her for the win.  She galloped out past the winner late.

FAST BOAT (Race 3 at CD, 6/12/2020) – Steadied shortly after the start of this turf dash and won by nearly 5 lengths.  That’s all you need to know about this one.  Impressive!

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – June 30

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BELMONT PARK

JACK AND NOAH (Race 9 @Belmont, Jne 19, 2020) – This 3yo son of Bated Breath is a very, very fast early.  He utilized that speed to run his rivals off their feet in this $80,000 stakes going 6 furlongs on the grass.  Throw out his 1 mile start on Jan. 26, and this colt’s sprint record is rock solid on the lawn.

INDIANA DOWNS

CIELO AZUL (Race 5 @Indiana, June 23, 2020) – 3yo gelding making first start since 2yo season ran a huge race here.  After not showing much in two starts in 2019, he had been training well and nearly pulled off the 10-1 shocker of a dropper from Tampa.

Did you miss… The attributes of an off-the-turf longshot winner?

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – May 31

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GULFSTREAM  PARK

PLEASANT ORB (Race 10 stakes @Gulfstream, May 15, 2020) – Another bonehead ride from Jersey Joe Bravo.  He ran this 3yo daughter of Orb right up on the heels of horses on the far turn, causing her to steady and lose precious momentum.  She altered course, swinging out but her finish was too late.

Tampa Paddock

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TAMPA BAY DOWNS

PALACES DIAMOND (Race 4 @TAM, May 20, 2020) – 2nd time starter finished well against the grain of the track that was kind to early speed.  It was also her first start in a couple of months, so she can move forward and into the winner’s circle next out.

CELESTIAL ORB (Race 8 @TAM, May 27, 2020) – This was the lone dirt sprint on the card, which is kind of unusual at Tampa or any track.  This 3yo filly got off to a rough start and raced wide but rallied well into the prevailing bias to get up for 2nd.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – May 21

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Golden gate turf breakGOLDEN GATE FIELDS

LIVE IT WELL (Race 7 @Golden Gate, May 14, 2020) – strange ride from one of the top local jockeys, Frankie Alvarado.  She was blocked inside and never really given the chance to run her best. Alvarado gave her a 10lb bug boy ride.   Vronsky filly loves the grass and can win back in a similar spot.

FRENCH TUDOR (Race 8 @Golden Gate, May 14, 2020) – this debut runner was looking to make it three firsters in a row for  trainer Sherrie Monroe and DP Racing.  She made a strong, steady run after breaking from the far outside 10 post and just missed getting up for third in a sneaky good performance.   This was a pretty competitive field won by a Ron Ellis firster.

Art Parker’s look at what horse racing can do during the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

CHARMAINE’S MIA (Race 10 at GP, May 8, 2020) – The Factor filly ran a really strong 2nd to R Happy Ending, the logical winner of this race for Baxter.  Edgar Zayas, who rode her to her last win at 12-1, was aboard.  Fits at optional 2x, $50,000 claiming level sprinting.  Prefers 5f.

 

SANTA ANITA

OH MARVELOUS ME (Race 6 @Santa Anita, May 15, 2020) – Finished strong in first start for Mark Glatt barn to get up and defeat a competitive field of $25,000 claimers.  Emerald Downs stakes winner has some back class.

 

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

PREPARE FOR GLORY (Race 7 @Tampa, May 9, 2020).  This first time starter from a 0% debut barn drew the rail to boot, which is very tough on a debut runner in general.  The 3yo gelding closed sneaky well for third behind the top 2 betting choices that laid over this field.  Can move forward off this for sharp Jordan Blair outfit.

LIL B QUICK (Race 5 @Tampa, May 9, 2020) – 5yo mare figured to be tough in this $6,250 open claimer but she suffered a trip with multiple excuses.  Managed to get 4th in a sneaky good performance.  Watch back.

Handicapping Tip #52 – Prepare for the 2yos

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – May 10

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GULFSTREAM PARK

NO NO NINA (Race 1 @GP, May 7, 2020) – Clement major dropped broke a length slow and that cost her in this 5 furlong turf dash.  The More Than Ready filly still ran well and can move forward off this race, only her third career effort.

PRINCESS SECRET (Race 2 @GP, May 7, 2020) – First timer by Khozan broke quickly on top and then was game throughout as she was pressured from the 3/8th pole home.   Extra impressive given that the Pita barn never wins with debut runners.

COUPLE OF NIKKIS (Race 4 @GP, May 7, 2020) – Not one of Tyler G’s best rides as this filly took up sharply at the 3/8th pole and was in traffic, losing her best chance.  She’s had two tough trips in a row now.  I’ll give her another chance at the $16,000 maiden turf level.

Have you read?  Art Parker’s handicapping advice – Risk Evaluation in Horse Racing

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

NEAT STREET (Race 7 at Tampa, May 8, 2020) – Just a poor turf ride from jockey Ademar Santos.  He had this 3yo gelding in traffic throughout and just never had him comfortable or with a clean chance to run.  Also-ran performance from the Bennett barn is not as bad as it looks.

AGOS Horses to Watch & Trip Notes – April 23

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GULFSTREAM PARK

COWTOWN (Race 10 at Gulfstream Park, 4/17/2020) – First time turf runner overcame a brutal trip to storm home late as a better-than-it looks winner in the finale.  The son of Tonalist was in traffic throughout, was knocked off stride down the lane, but quickly recovered to burst home in the final furlong.

EAGLES PALACE (Race 10 at Gulfstream Park, 4/17/2020) – Another first time turf runner from the same race as winner Cowtown.  This colt was bumped hard around the first turn.  Around the final turn he was blocked and steadied.  Recovered to rally wide but flattened out late.  Can improve off that effort for trainer Bill Mott.

Did you read Handicapping Tip #53 – Love Them Before You Bet Them.

OAKLAWN PARK

FLAGSTAFF (Race 8 at Oaklawn Park, 4/18/2020) – This guy broke awkwardly, spotting the field 2-3 lengths.  Was trailing the field early on and was actually steadied briefly at the 5/8th pole, further compromising any chance of winning.  Despite that, Flagstaff absolutely blew by the field down the stretch and just missing catching up with 3x Count Fleet Sprint winner Whitmore at the wire.  Impressive performance in defeat.

HOROLOGIST (Race 10 at Oaklawn Park, 4/18/2020) – The 2019 Monmouth Oaks winner wasn’t going to win the G1 Apple Blossom but she lost all chance when rallied into a wall of horses at the top of the lane. From there she had no where to run and actually finished sneaky well to end up in the front half of the field.  Could be a sneaky play next out in the right spot.