Horse Racing Handicapping vs. Games of Chance. Learn more about horse racing
Legendary sports bettor and handicapper Alan “Dink” Denkenson is interviewed here on what it takes to be a successful bettor. Although the topic, in specific, is sports such as football and baseball, all these tenets apply well to horseplayers. Don’t chase, do the required research and much more from Dink.
It’s worth a listen for anyone and everyone who wants to improve their game.
“Holzhauer has dominated “Jeopardy!” like no one else since the current version of the television game show had its premiere in 1984. He won again on the episode that aired Wednesday, pushing his total earnings above $1.1 million, second on the all-time list behind the legendary Ken Jennings.”
The NY Times interviewed Holzbauer in the spring of 2019, asking him several questions of how he was so successful on the popular show.
The big key to his success was going aggressive from the opening bell. He would go right for the $1,000 questions, skipping the lower tier amounts.
As stated in the NY piece, you could make an analogy to sports betting or poker tournaments. There are big advantages to having a lot of chips early on in a poker tournament. Consequently, the bettor can make plays that other people can’t.
Would you describe the traditional way of playing “Jeopardy!” as overly risk-averse?
“I would definitely say it’s too risk-averse,” explained Holzbauer. “The funny thing is, my strategy actually minimizes the risk of me losing a game. There’s times in a football game where a team goes for a big TD pass. If you don’t take a risk like that, you’re not going to win. Really, the big risk is never trying anything that looks like a big gamble.”
You can read the full Times interview of Holzhauer here.
by Glen S.
My recent blogs have talked about preparing for betting. Today’s is all about taking advantage of the prep work that you have done.
You have watched the replays, you have handicapped the race card. At this point you should have a good feeling of the races to take a shot at or pass. One other thing to check would be are there any carryovers and, if so, what type of carryovers. Understand the difference between a good carryover and a jackpot carryover. which are more common nowadays. A good carryover will be paid out that day.
My recommendation if it is a good carryover, start there with those races. Dead money always is in favor of the horseplayer, don’t miss out, but make sure you like the sequence.
Next step start with your strongest races you like, maybe a replay horse or a race with very few unknowns and then build around that race. If I am playing sequence bets, I need to have at least half of the races I like quite a bit. This doesn’t mean I have keys in every race, but does mean I have the max horses in the race I need.
If the bookends of your strongest race are terrible, then it might just be an individual race bet. If the carryover is big enough in the sequence, I will take a small chance and play the sequence.
Here are a few key points I look for to give myself an advantage over the wagering public:
-Understanding race shape. Fast pace? Slow pace?
-A good replay that others might have missed.
-Vulnerable favorite that you think will get beat, but the public doesn’t and over bets that horse.
-Very few unknowns in the race, e.g. first time starters.
Always try and find that value, whether it is there because of a carryover, vulnerable favorite or your horse is paying higher than you thought.
Good luck and good racing.
by Glen S.
Picking winners doesn’t always mean you are making money at the horse races. Successful betting strategies usually does though.
Let’s begin by realizing that every horse race is a little different. Why is that? Well, there are underlays, overlays, big or small fields, where the race is in the race card, etc. If you are a bettor that wagers the same way and amount in each race, then you are behind the eight ball right way. STOP THAT!
Your need to adjust your wagering according to the race in question and how confident you are on the race. How and what should we do?
Here are some do’s and don’t; hopefully you are on more of the do’s.
-Don’t bet the same amount on each race, as there is no way you like each race equally.
-Do step up a little more when you have a strong play, and step down when there are to many unknowns.
-Don’t be one of those people that tell me they never bet favorites. Favorites win around 35% of the time.
-If you avoid favorites you have already lost on over one-third of the races. Favorites have value at times, too.
-Do understand when to box horses and when to make it a wheel.
-You should figure out the percentage of your opinion on the horses in question; if equal, box, if different wheel.
-Don’t be that lazy handicapper that plays the caveman ticket in pick 4s or pick 5s.
-Oftentimes you need to play multiple tickets – that saves you money and takes advantage of your handicapping ability.
Read Handicapping Tip #16 – 4 Times to Play Against the Favorite!
Here are a few other handicapping tips to set you up for success
-Do take advantage of all the new and improved handicapping tools out there to help you pick more winners.
-Don’t be that handicapper that thinks they know it all and has bet the same way they have for the past 20 years.
-Do the research and pick your spots and make yourself some money at the races.
Comments are always welcome as I want to get better each day as well.
Next Week: Part 2 of Betting strategies, sequence bets,
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Regardless of whether you’re new to sports wagering or are already a betting ace, there is always room for improvement. A small number of sports bettors just engage in horse gambling during the Triple Crown races; however, the amount of cash bet on horse races every year indicates there are “regulars” who wager races all year. Regardless of whether you are an inconsistent bettor making a bet from an online platform or an enthusiastic bettor appearing at the circuit regularly, everyone can profit by some type of wagering advice. Adam Bjorn, a gambling executive with extensive knowledge of all types of betting activity, provides tips that are sure to help any gambler improve their efforts.
With different games, numerous bettors will depend on the eye test when making bets. These bettors contend they have seen groups play ordinarily and can, in this way, foresee the results of their next games. States Bjorn, “In horse racing, seeing each pony’s earlier races is almost inconceivable. There are an excessive number of horses in an excessive number of tracks to be able to contrast all of them around the nation. As a result, the race program ought to be seen as a bettor’s Holy Grail and the source of all applicable data.”
Source: Del Mar (dmtc.com)
A player at Maryland’s AmTote hub bet big bucks Saturday (8/15/2020) trying to solve the mystery of Del Mar’s Pick Six. He did and took home a prize of $317,002.
To get that winning ticket, our Maryland gambler invested $65,146 which, on the face of it, seems outrageous. But he or she will tell you otherwise tonight as they cashed a bet that roughly came to a 5-1 score.
The winning horses in the exotic wager were: 6th Race — #6 C’mon Jenna ($10.40); 7th Race — #2 Undeniable Proof ($6.40); 8th Race — #5 Forest Caraway ($25.80); 9th Race – #5 Pulpit Rider ($24.80); 10th Race — #6 Pyron ($3.20), and 11th Race — #6 Mithqaal ($18.00).
By Art Parker for agameofskill.com
In the financial world the “risk-return tradeoff” states that the potential return rises with an increase in risk. Individuals associate low levels of uncertainty with low potential returns, and high levels of uncertainty or risk with high potential returns. According to the risk-return tradeoff, invested money can render higher profits only if the investor will accept a higher possibility of losses.
What exactly is risk? Risk is the likelihood of an adverse event occurring within an identifiable sector, such as the private sector or government sector. Those who are risk analysts often work with forecasting professionals to minimize future negative unforeseen effects.
Let’s look at what happens when you go to the bank for a loan. The bank asks you to complete the application first. Why? This is the primary method by which the bank can analyze you as a risk. If the application looks good the bank orders a credit report, which is a critical way to evaluate you as a risk. If the bank then lends you the money it will tell you the terms, which is primarily the interest rate and other things. If your interest rate is lower than most, it is because you are a good risk. If it is higher, then you are riskier to do business with. All of this is done so that the lender can expect a certain return with all risks balanced.
As far as horse racing goes, it would be unwise to select a horse in an upcoming race, regardless of the odds, without considering the risks, or what could happen to prevent the horse from entering the “Winner’s Circle.” Once the risks are analyzed it should be easier to grasp what the return should be.
How many times have we seen the lone speed horse miss the start, get squeezed or have early traffic trouble? If that lone speed horse can’t get the lead and no matter what the odds, all is lost. How many times have we seen the closer from hell become a victim of a slow pace or have traffic trouble and just can’t catch the speed?
It reminds me of a friend of mine, a very good player who loved to analyze pace. If he determined a horse was the lone speed in the race he would then look at those in the adjacent post positions. If those runners next to the lone speed have gate problems then the probability of the lone speed could be compromised. That’s very good risk analysis in our game.
In a recent piece I talked about finding the bargain horse, an effort that requires risk analysis in the overall race evaluation. A horse may be a bargain at 7-1, but if the amount of risk is excessive then 7-1 may not be enough.
By ART PARKER
It really makes no difference what handicapping method(s) you use to provide answers for who you wager on in horse racing. What’s important is how you use the answers you come up with. If you use a system and your system says bet number five (#5) then it is unwise to go and make the bet without examining the value of your wager.
I had a friend that utilized some sort of pace formula that, by his own admission, won about 30% of the time. I would shake my head at him when he whooped it up when his system horse would win at odds on. I could not get him to understand that you will lose money (even with a nice 30% strike rate) if winning wagers don’t return enough money.
John Templeton, the legendary mutual-fund manager who was a pioneer of international investing and later committed much of his fortune to scientific and religious causes, was known as the “Owl of Wall Street.” He earned a reputation for bargain-minded stock selection that consistently rewarded shareholders in his Templeton Funds family. Templeton’s number one rule was to look for and buy bargains. Learn from your mistakes was another one of his top rules.
If you have ever been to a brokerage firm you have probably seen the board flashing symbols and numbers across. As a stock is traded its most recent price is given. This is really no different than going to the track since the tote board gives you the information to determine what a horse is going for in terms of odds. If you put Templeton’s practice into horse playing the number one rule would be to bet on horses that are better than their odds; in other words look for a bargain.
Some of the best advice I ever received came years ago from one of the best horseplayers I ever knew. He had a great way to explain bargains at the track. He once said, “If I think a horse should be 2-1 and he is on the board at 5-1, I really like him. If he goes up to 8-1 I really love him.”
By ART PARKER
If you play this game long enough and if you love it then you will try to figure things a million different ways attempting win. I’ve been playing the horses virtually my entire adult life. I just got my Medicare card in the mail so that will let you know about how long it has been.
Like many of you I have done one study after another, researched no telling how many angles and I have one of the very finest sets of trainer pattern files you have ever seen. Once a month my wife gives me an authoritative lecture on all the stuff in my office in the house. Of course what she really wants to know is when I will dispose of more of the horse racing stuff. I simply say I can‘t get rid of any more right now. When she asks why, I always responded with, “Because there may be another winner somewhere in that stuff.”
I was like everyone else in my early years in racing in that I thought about how to get rich every time I went to the track. I would see a huge Pick Six payout and think I just had to start playing for all of those big jackpots, and I have hit a few in my time. I’m just scared to tally up the losses incurred trying to hit a boxcar payout.
After many years I finally realized that those who hit the big ones and make money in the long run are few and far between. I realized one is better off taking a profit, ever how small, and then achieving the same result the next day.
The difficulty in the “grind it out” approach is that us humans can‘t equate making a weekly profit at the track to getting a weekly paycheck. When we go to work we don’t expect to get rich on Thursday, but we expect that in one afternoon at the track.
I majored in corporate finance in college. I learned all about stocks, bonds, warrants, options, mutual funds, balance sheets, P&L, and all that boring stuff. In that field there is one thing you never forget – the importance of a percentage point; if I had just one percent more return, if cash flow was just one percent better, etc.
Just recently I conducted another study using a few variables regarding speed and class with results below.
Win bets only.
Number of races = 526.
Number of winners with method tested = 176.
Winning rate = 33.46 %
Total payoffs = $ 1,080.5
Average payoff = $ 6.14
Total invested at $2 per win ticket = $1,052
Net profit = $ 28.50
Return on investment (ROI) = 2.71 %
Many would look at this and see very little money. Well, if you wagered $20.00 per race then your profit would be $ 285.00. Of course, it would still be the same ROI.
Now if the efficiency with this method were increased by only 1% then another five (5) races would be cashed. That would increase the total winnings by $30.70. Again, not much money. But what about ROI? The winnings increase to $59.20 and the ROI increases to 5.62%.
Just think. If you can increase your winning efficiency by just 1%, you would more than double your return on investment.
Does that sound like a good deal?
I believe it would sound good at any business school.
Tuesday night, September 10, 2019, featured a mandatory payout of the Jackpot Pick-5 wager at Prairie Meadows. This jackpot wager had been building for months and, with closing day on tap, it was time to pay it all out. This equated to $326,599 in free money in the pool. Those funds, plus whatever was wagered (minus the 15% takeout), would be distributed to all the winners.
Despite the slow Tuesday of racing, and the fact that Prairie Meadows had recently been hosting quarter horse racing instead of Thoroughbreds, it seemed like everyone knew about it. Major ADWs were sending out emails. People were posting all over social media. It seemed like if you were a horseplayer, especially one who liked horizontal wagers, you were playing it.
I was among them and was planning to participate. My first concern was the notice that Des Moines, Iowa and the racetrack had been pounded with rain overnight. How that might affect the track, even though it figured to be dry by post time, was anyone’s guess.
The second and more important issue was the entries. The fields were large and with not knowing the track very well, that gave me pause. If I could find one or two standouts, or a couple of races where I could easily narrow the field down to, let’s say, two major players, then this could be an affordable ticket.
However, that was not the case. I was having trouble narrowing down the contenders in all five races. Consequently, this sequence looked like it could pay gangbusters. Of course, that’s the type of Pick-5 I want to be a part of. I went back through it again, looking to narrow the races down to even 4-5 plays in most races. I found it very difficult, regardless of the 2.57% edge as indicated by expert Marshall Gramm.*
$1,858,726 bet into the Prairie Meadows Pick 5 force out. With a 15% takeout and $326,600 carryover that’s $1,906,517 returned to bettors. That’s a players’ edge of 2.57%!
— Marshall Gramm (@truxtonstables) September 11, 2019
A 4 x 4 x 4 x 5 x 5 partwheel is 1,600 combinations. With the large fields there were 62,370 possible combinations. At the $.50 base wager, this type of ticket would cost $800. This was more than I wanted to spend when I wasn’t confident I would hit. If I was wrong in just one race, I was toast.
The wise decision was to pass despite the six figures of “free” money. The winning combination ended up returning $1,737.05. This was a generous payoff considering the results, but it was hardly a life-changing score.
Recognizing when the situation isn’t right for you and passing on the so-called opportunity is very important. Another big carryover is right around the corner.
Best of luck!
*If you want to learn more about the game, follow Marshall’s tweets.
Rich Nilsen is an 18-time qualifier to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times in 16 attempts. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. A former executive with Brisnet.com & Churchill Downs, Rich is also a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program.
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