Del Mar Pace Chart for Closing Day – Nov. 28

Pace makes the race!

There are mandatory payouts today on closing day at Del Mar. Utilize this complimentary pace chart to help you envision how each of the races will set up at Del Mar, November 28, 2021.   Always remember to wager within your comfort level and pick your spots. Best of luck!

DEL MAR – Closing day, Nov. 28, 2021
Race 1 Expected Pace Leaders Stalkers Mid-Pack Closers Unknown
9.00 Furlongs / Turf Honest 3 5-2 4-6-1
Race 2
8 Furlongs / Dirt Modest *3 5-4 2-1-6 7-8
Race 3
8 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 7-3 1-2-4 5-9-8-10 11
Race 4
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Unknown 7 2-3-4-1-5-6
Race 5
8 Furlongs / Turf Slow 7-1 13-11 10-5-4-6 2-12-8 3-9-14
Race 6
8 Furlongs / Dirt Honest 6 4-2 7-5-1 3
Race 7
8 Furlongs / Turf Slow/Modest 5-1 6-3 2-4
Race 8
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Honest *2 4-6 5-3-1 8-9 7
Race 9
9.00 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 10 7-13-5 3-6-8-12 2-1-9-11

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Fair Grounds Pace Chart for Opening Day – Thanksgiving, Nov. 25

Pace makes the race!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!  Utilize this complimentary pace chart to help you envision how each of the races will set up on opening day at Fair Grounds, Thursday, November 25, 2021.   Always remember to wager within your comfort level and pick your spots. Best of luck!

FAIR GROUNDS, Nov. 25, 2021
Race 1 Expected Pace Leaders Stalkers Mid-Pack Closers Unknown
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Honest *3 9-11-6 7-10-8-2 1-5-4
Race 2
8 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 2 11-6-4 5-7-1-9 10-12-3-8
Race 3
8.50 Furlongs / Dirt Modest 7-1-11 5-10-6 9-3-8 4-2
Race 4
8.50 Furlongs / Turf Fast 3-7 5 6-9-2-8 1-4
Race 5
8.50 Furlongs / Dirt Honest 3 2 1-5-4-7 6
Race 6
9.00 Furlongs / Turf Fast 6-5 9-4 3-2-1-7 11-8-10
Race 7
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Fast 6-5 7-4 3 1-2
Race 8
8.50 Furlongs / Turf Modest 2-8 6-5-7 3-1-9-10 11-4
Race 9
5.50 Furlongs / Dirt Likely Fast 4 7-1-9 8-5-13-10 3-6-11-12-2-14-1A-2B

SPORTS BETTORS!

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Tampa Bay Downs Pace Chart for Opening Day – Wed., Nov. 24

Pace makes the race!

Utilize this complimentary pace chart to help you envision how each of the races will set up on opening day at Tampa Bay Downs, Wednesday, November 24, 2021.   Wager within your comfort level, pick your spots and best of luck!

Tampa Bay Downs — Nov., 24, 2021
Race 1 Expected Pace Leaders Stalkers Mid-Pack Closers Unknown
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Honest *1 8-5 4-6-7 2-9-3
Race 2
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Modest 10 4-1-12 8-6-3-2 11-13-7-14-9 5
Race 3
8 Furlongs / Turf Slow 4-10 3-5-8 12-2-6-11 9-13-1 7
Race 4
7.00 Furlongs / Dirt Modest 6-7 2-13 10-4-5-12 1-3-11-9-14-8
Race 5
8.50 Furlongs / Turf Modest 2-4 7-3-1 6-10-5-8 9
Race 6
7.00 Furlongs / Dirt Modest 2 10-6 7-3-4-9-8 1-5
Race 7
8.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 3-2-4 1-9 5-10-8 7-6
Race 8
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Fast *4 2-3-1 7-9-10-5 6-8-11
Race 9
8 Furlongs / Turf Modest 8 7-3-4-2 6-1-11 5-10-9-13-12-14

 

SPORTS BETTORS!

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Keeneland Pace Chart for Opening Day – Friday, October 8th

Pace makes the race!

Utilize this complimentary pace chart to help you envision how each of the races will set up on opening day at Keeneland, Friday October 8th.   Wager within your comfort level, pick your spots and best of luck!

10/8/2021
Keeneland Pace Chart
Race 1 Expected Pace Leaders Stalkers Mid-Pack Closers Unknown
8.50 Furlongs / Dirt Honest/Fast 2 1-6 3-5-4
Race 2
8 Furlongs / Turf Unknown ? 4 3-1-11 12-5-7-9 10-16 2-6-8-13-14-15
Race 3
8.50 Furlongs / Dirt Modest 2 1-1A 5-4-6 3
Race 4
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Modest 7 9-3 2-5-8 4-6-1
Race 5
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Honest *4 1-2 3-6-8 5-7
Brad’s Time is the controlling early speed in this field of eight claimers. Vulcan and Heart Rhythm will both show
 speed off the layoff.
Race 6
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Unknown ? 11 8-10-5 2-3-4-1-6-7-9-12-13
Race 7
8.50 Furlongs / Turf Modest 6-7 2-11-9 1-13-5-8 10-4-12-3
Race 8
6.00 Furlongs / Dirt Fast 7-6-1-4 2-3 5
Hot early pace with Sir Alfred James or Special Reserves the likely pacesetter.  May set things up for
Aloha West from off the pace.
Race 9
8.50 Furlongs / Dirt Fast 1-7 12-5-9 11-2-4-10 6-3-8
Another expected fast early pace with 4+ runners that show speed. That could play against the morning line
favorite Juju’s Map.
Race 10
9.00 Furlongs / Turf Modest 2 12-8-7 3-5-4-14 13-6-1-11-16-9-10-15

SPORTS BETTORS!

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Handicapping Tip of the Day #65 – Bad Beats or Something Else?

by Glen S.

Bad Beats, Bad Betting or Bad Selections.

All three may sound bad, but they are different and you should recognize the difference when watching and reviewing the races.

Let’s begin with the BAD BEATS:
-We all get them, e.g. noses on the wire, bad rides, and you lose
-Your horse has a tough trip and another horse gets through on the rail to beat you at the wire

Understand that we all get the bad beats, but it is what you do after a bad beat that is important. If you dwell on it, that will just affect you in your handicapping future races. “Good Wins” are just around the corner when your horse wins the photo next time out. Stick to your process, because success at the races is right around the corner.

Bad Betting:
-Making money doesn’t always go hand in hand by picking winners.
-Understanding value and how to get the most of your top selections. Play underlays and you’re guaranteed to lose.
-Should you be betting win, or exacta or sequence bets? Realizing a $12.00 horse is great value when you give it fair value of 3-1. Be sure to bet to win. If you are going after the exacta and miss it, without a win bet, that is bad betting. Take a look at your betting strategies.

It is tough enough to pick winners, you want to make them count when you do.

Bad Selections:
-We all make them, but you want to accept that and not make excuses like, “bad ride”, “didn’t want to win,” etc.
-Bad selections you need to learn from them, adjust your handicapping the next time a similar situation happens.
-What did I miss to have such a bad selection? Review your handicapping post-race.

The faster you learn from your mistakes, the less bad selections there will be and more chance to have a few “good wins” in the future.

Did you miss these Handicapping Tips of the Day?

Horse Racing Tip of the Day – the Fewer this the better…

Horse Racing Tip of the Day – Evaluating Layoff Horses

Horse Racing Tip of the Day – Red Flags on this Big Favorite

Handicappers, It’s Mid-Year Review Time

Handicapping past performances PPs1st Half of the Year is Over

How is the year going?  At the beginning of the year we typically remind readers to take the necessary steps to improve their handicapping and money management.  With six months of 2021 in the books, how would you rate your handicapping thus far?  Are you committing some of the same mistakes you’ve made in the past?  What have you improved upon?

Let’s look back on the New Year resolutions because it’s never too late to right the ship.

“Every horse player needs to know their strengths and weaknesses. If you don’t, you will not know when to take that big shot on a horse or wager.

I find the biggest mistake by horseplayers is playing the same way year after year and not trying to improve their handicapping.  It’s a ‘plan’ doomed to fail.

What have you done lately to improve?

Here are a few things to do more of…” read on

Does the European handicapping system work?

An earnings-based system rather than one based simply on wins alone is a suggestion put forward by more than one industry expert, but the current system of handicapping has been in place for 170 years, introduced by Admiral Rous in 1851. Rous was appointed the first official handicapper in Britain in 1855 and devised the Weight-For-Age scale, which in theory should afford horses of different ages an equal chance of winning.

Tellingly, it says a lot about our sport that he is still remembered anecdotally for the remark, “I have just gone through the next race and have discovered that I have handicapped each horse so well that not one of them can possibly win.”

We could argue that if it isn’t broken, why fix it? Certainly, many trainers have no issue with the system, other than its interpretation by the various official handicappers in relation to their own horse.

“There has to be a process in place, and if we didn’t have handicaps, a lot of horses couldn’t compete and would fall out of training,” says Michael Grassick, CEO Irish Racehorse Trainers Association (IRTA). “I personally believe that handicaps serve a purpose. Many do feel that in Ireland the handicapper is too severe. After a period of time horses will run to a certain rating and when they go above that rating, they will no longer be as competitive until returning to that rating. The Irish handicapper is felt to be very slow in moving a horse who has gone up through the handicap back down the ratings; we feel that in the UK horses are lowered a bit quicker. While in the lower grades of 45-60, the horses seem to drop quite quickly and drop through the floor and out of the system…

Horse Racing Bets and Wager Types

DelMar how to place a wager

copyright Del Mar

Wagering is what drives the sport of horse racing. The thrill you get when your horse hits the finish line in front is second to none. Let’s take a look at the most popular horse racing wagers, in very basic details, for you to begin to learn and experience that thrill firsthand.

 

Straight Horse Racing Bets

Win Wager

The easiest wager one can place on horse racing is the win bet and, thanks to its simplicity, it is the most popular among horse racing fans. Wager on a horse to Win.  If he or she wins the race, you collect the payoff based on a $2 win mutual.  When you wager on a 2-1 winner, for example, you receive the base wager ($2) times the odds (2) for $4.00 plus the original wager back for a total of $6.00.  Your profit, in this case, is $4.00.

It’s that simple.  The hard part, of course, is uncovering the horse that will win.

 

Place and Show Wagers

The place bet is wagering on a horse to finish no worse than second, and the show bet is wagering on a horse to finish no worse than third.  There is often confusion among newbies, believing that a horse must finish third in order to cash on the show bet.  Many a ticket has been discarded because of that mistake.

In Europe most of the ‘show’ wagering is actually referred to as ‘place’ betting.

 

Exotic Horse Racing Bets

 Daily Double

This is the simplest type of exotic wager, and probably the oldest.  The Daily Double is combining the winners of two consecutive races.  If your wager includes both winners, you cash.  The base wager is either $1.00 or $2.00 depending on the host track.

What are the tax rules involving horse racing wagers?  Learn more about how the IRS now treats big winnings on the horse races.

Exacta / Perfecta

The exacta is picking the exact order of the top two finishers in a race.  You can play the exact straight or you can box the wager, so that if theexacta horse racing basics horses finish in any order, one-two, then you cash.  You can include as many horses as you wish in your exacta box, but the cost of the wager goes up exponentially and your chances of turning a profit diminish greatly. The base exacta wager is usually $1.00.

In Canada the exacta wager is referred to as the perfecta.

 

Trifecta

The trifecta is picking the exact order of the top three finishers in a race.  You can play the trifecta straight or you can box the wager.   The advantage of the ‘box’ is that if the horses finish in any order, one-two-three, then you cash.  You can include as many horses as you wish in your trifecta box, but the cost of the wager goes up exponentially.  The base wager is usually either $0.50 or $1.00.

 

Superfecta

The Superfecta is picking the exact order of the top four finishers in a race.  You can play this quad bet straight or you can box the wager, so that if the horses finish in any order, one-two-three-four, then you cash.  Like the exacta and trifecta, you can include as many horses as you wish in your superfecta box, but the cost of the wager goes up exponentially.  At many tracks throughout the country, the base minimum wager is only $0.10 and that makes the bet affordable for the recreational horseplayer.

The industry has added a lot of new bets over the past few years, and we’ll take a look at them in an upcoming primer.

How to Improve Your Handicapping in the New Year

by Glen S.

Was 2020 a successful year in your handicapping? If so, great, but why not make it even better. If wasn’t a good year, why do you think that was? Do you know where you struggled the most? Was it playing too many sequence bets or betting under-valued horses?

Every horse player needs to know their strengths and weaknesses. If you don’t, you will not know when to take that big shot on a horse or wager.

I find the biggest mistake by horseplayers is playing the same way year after year and not trying to improve their handicapping.  It’s a ‘plan’ doomed to fail.

What have you done lately to improve?

Here are a few things to do more of in the New Year that will improve your horse racing handicapping:

  • Watch more replays.
  • Be better prepared before the races start.
  • Look at some of the new/old handicapping software out there, e.g. DRF’s Formulator.
  • Be more adaptable to the race.
  • Avoid having the same type of bet for most races.

So many horse players think they are great handicappers.  Why is that? If everyone was so good, more favorites would win and the prices would be lower. Needless to say, that is not the case.

Ask yourself, what would you rate yourself as a horseplayer overall from a scale of 1 to 10 ?

There has been a study in regards to people rating themselves in the field they are in. The study has found that the best of the best in their field rates themselves around a 4.5 out of 10.  Why do you think they rate themselves so low?  It is because they never stop learning. If you rated yourself at 7 or higher, you may want to think again. One of my favorite lines is “What you don’t know, you don’t know?” Think about that line and understand why that is so powerful.

Be better in 2021.  Become a better handicapper.

Happy New Year everyone!

 

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Handicapping Tip of the Day #64 – Red Flags on Rag Tag

Handicapping Tip of the Day

by Rich Nilsen

Handicapping tips from agameofskill.com

On a recent Wednesday card at Tampa Bay Downs (Dec. 9, 2020), the 2nd race of the day featured a nice field of maiden special weight runners going 6 1/2 furlongs.  The 3/2 morning line favorite in the race was the Eoin Harty-trained Rag Tag, a three year old who sported good form and superior numbers (speed figures, class ratings, BRIS Prime Power rating, etc.).  The well-bred colt from famed Calumet Farm also was coming in off a solid workout pattern.  What wasn’t there to like?

In Rag Tag’s case, quite a bit.  In his brief, nine-race career the colt had been beaten at short odds SIX times.  Three of those times he was the heavy favorite, as he was expected to be on this sunny Florida afternoon.

The most dangerous ‘Professional Maidens’ for chalk lovers (bettors who like to wager on favorites) are those that have numerous changes applied by their trainer(s) and continue to fail.  Rag Tag was a shining example:

  • He had raced at four different distances, from 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
  • He had tried the dirt, the turf, and the slop.
  • He had been ridden by six different jockeys, including top jocks Luis Saez and John Velasquez, Jr.
  • He had run with blinkers and without blinkers.
  • He had dropped in class and lost.
  • He had attempted five different racetracks.
  • He had never gained ground AND passed a horse in the stretch…ever.
  • Finally, he had raced for three different barns (Pletcher, Sisterson, and Harty)

All this in a 9-race career.  When the morning line favorite has been beaten, especially recently, at short odds, that is the first neon light to the handicapper to dig deeper.  Has this horse been in races where he or she should have won previously and didn’t?  When there is a lot of evidence pointing out that this horse is a hanger and lacks the will to win, it can open up a big opportunity for the horseplayer.  It doesn’t mean you’re going to pick the winner, but it does guarantee that you get extra value on your play(s).

Rag Tag went off at 70 cents on the dollar and was a closing 2nd to the lukewarm 2nd choice, a lightly raced Monmouth Park shipper.  He’ll got into his next race with a record of 10-0-5-1 and he’ll be heavily bet again.

Did you miss this Handicapping Tip of the Day?

Horse Racing Tip of the Day – the Fewer this the better…

Horse Racing Tip of the Day – Evaluating Layoff Horses