Did the Tampa Bay Derby make sense?

Handicapper Art ParkerBy ART PARKER

The Tampa Bay Derby was not on my docket of possible races to play so I didn’t examine the race at all the day of the event. I caught the replay that night just trying to keep in touch with the Kentucky Derby trail. Upon watching the replay of the Tampa Bay Derby I was motivated to find out why the public let the winner, King Guillermo, go off at odds of 49-1.

We all know that hindsight is 20/20 but some things must not be overlooked when examining a race, such as the company line of previous races. The 2020 Tampa Bay Derby is a prime example.

First take a look at the clear favorite, Sole Volante, who went off at 3/2 in the 12 horse field. Any horse that goes off at odds that heavy, especially in a full field, must look almost invincible to the bettors. Sole Volante was three of four and his trio of wins came from noticeably off the pace.

There were only two horses in the race not nominated to the Triple Crown, the winner King Guillermo and Texas Swing (almost 20-1), the latter finished third behind Sole Volante. Maybe the two runners not nominated lost some pari-mutuel appeal when the players failed to see the TC nomination next to their name.

It is true that the last two races by King Guillermo were on the turf, including his maiden victory and the Tampa Bay Derby is run on the main dirt track. King Guillermo’s second turf race saw him close up and in possession of the lead from the half mile call until the final furlong. He finished third that day in another big field and was the beaten favorite. In fact he finished third, just 3 ½ lengths behind the winner, Sole Volante, who went off the board at more than 13-1.

How can a horse in his last start be bet so heavily and lose to a 13-1 by just 3 ½ lengths, and now be at 49-1, while the other horse is 3/2?

The public gave a 40% probability of winning the Tampa Bay Derby to Sole Volante. The public gave a meager 2% probability of victory to King Guillermo.

It’s easy to miss longshots, but it is easier to hit just a few more by asking the question, “Does that make sense?”

Triple Crown | KY Derby Watch – Tampa Bay Derby

This was a full field of 12 three year old racehorses and one of the big outsiders in the field pulled the shocker.  Despite breaking outward some from the 11 hole, King Guillermo rushed up to get into good position around the first turn.  Showed nice rating ability to sit off the leader before taking over late in the race.  The son of Uncle Mo drew off to an impressive 4 3/4-length score under a jubilant Sammy Camacho.  The 49-1 longshot is owned by 5-time MLB baseball star Victor Martinez.

Favorite Sole Volante was too far back early and had to momentarily wait for room on the far turn.  The gelding stormed home late up the rail belatedly for 2nd.

The 2020 Fountain of Youth recap here at agameofskill.com

King Guillermo upsets Tampa Bay Derby. Pays $100

from KentuckyDerby.com

King Guillermo pulled off a stunner in Saturday’s $351,500 Tampa Bay Derby (G2), running away from the field down the stretch to score by 4 3/4 lengths at odds of 49-1. Sole Volante, the 3-2 favorite, finished second.

Unraced since finishing third to Sole Volante in the Nov. 30 Pulpit S. on the turf at Gulfstream Park, King Guillermo tracked in second behind Relentless Dancer before reaching the front in upper stretch. The pace was a modest :23.89, :48.16, and 1:12, slower than what aided Sole Volante’s winning rally in last month’s Sam F. Davis (G3).

Owned by Victor Martinez’s Victorias Ranch and trained by Juan Avila, King Guillermo was ridden by Samy Camacho and returned $100.40 after completing 1 1/16 miles on a fast track in 1:42.53. Sole Volante finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Texas Swing, who had a half-length up on Relentless Dancer at the finish.

King Guillermo and Texas Swing were the only two entries in the Tampa Bay Derby not currently nominated to the Triple Crown, so the respective 50 and 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points they would …


Triple Crown | KY Derby Watch – Fountain Of Youth Stakes

Ete Indien broke sharply from a difficult outside post.  Despite the short run into the first turn, the talented 3yo by Summer Front cleared the entire field to take the early lead.  From there, he and jockey Flo Geroux dictated the early pace en route to a very impressive 8 1/2 length victory.

The battle was for 2nd place.  As Seen On TV raced inside for most of the running and just lost the place spot late to Candy Tycoon.  Country Grammer got off to a poor start and was involved in the battle for the place spot but settled for a better-than-it-looks 5th place showing.

Churchill Downs Stock Upgraded at J.P. Morgan

Fears of Kentucky Derby cancelling are overblown

Shares of Churchill Downs Inc. CHDN, +0.64% rose 1.4% in morning trading Monday, after J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer upgraded the Kentucky Derby venue, saying investors concerns over the coronavirus outbreak is overblown. Politzer raised his rating to overweight, Churchill Downs Stock Upgradedafter being at neutral for at least the past three years, while keeping his price target at $148. Through Friday, the stock had tumbled 23.6% amid a seven-session losing streak since the $164.37 record close. Politzer said the stock appears to be trading under the assumption that the Kentucky Derby could be cancelled, a scenario he believes as “unlikely,” given that the Derby has run uninterrupted for 145 straight years, despite various pandemics, world wars and the Great Depression…

Churchill Downs Stock Upgraded:

Maximum Security wins the richest horse race in world

$20-million Saudi Cup goes to DQ’d Kentucky Derby winner

Maximum Security probably will always be remembered for the race he didn’t win when last year he was the first horse in the 146-year history of the Kentucky Derby to be disqualified on race day for interference.

It was a tremendous race as he ran down Mucho Gusto and held off the talented mare Midnight Bisou at  the wire…

Kentucky Derby: Is the Time Right for Dennis’ Moment?

“He’s just a good horse,” he said. “He’s only going to improve.”

Dennis’ Moment hasn’t raced since stumbling badly at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 1 and finishing last after going to the gate as the 4-5 favorite. He earned favoritism over Eight Rings by virtue of a 19 1/4-length maiden victory at Ellis Park on July 27.

The son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow followed up that monster victory with a 1 3/4-length win in the Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 14, prompting some to believe he was a potential star. He’s been working well for his return, according to trainer Dale Romans.

“He hasn’t missed a beat. His progression has been great,” Romans told Gulfstream Park publicists.

Romans hasn’t lost any confidence in his colt, whose return is being highly anticipated in South Florida.

Get Art Wilson’s Top Six Derby horses:

Belmont winner, top sire A.P. Indy dies at 31

A.P. Indy was retired and returned home to Lane’s End in 1993, where he began to dominate the North American sire ranks. He was the leading sire in 2003 and 2006 and stayed in the top-10 for 10 straight years, siring 88 graded stakes winners including 2000 Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Status; 2006 Preakness Stakes winner Bernardini; 2007 Kentucky Oaks and Belmont Stakes winner Rags to Riches; and 2015 Met Mile and Whitney winner Honor Code.

A.P. Indy was the grandsire of Tapit, a three-time North American leading sire who is known for producing Belmont winners, meaning that 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist, 2016 winner Creator and 2017 winner Tapwrit count A.P. Indy as an ancestor. Others in his sire line include 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome; 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb; and a slew of Breeders’ Cup and other major stakes winners.

Through his daughters, A.P. Indy …

Why You Shouldn’t Miss the Kentucky Derby

Nyquist KY Derby 2016If you’re a horse race fan or bettor, there’s no chance you haven’t heard about the Kentucky Derby. One of the greatest horse racing events of the season, the Kentucky Derby is watched by millions. Huge amounts of money are bet on the event each year and it’s also a race with some of the biggest payouts in history.


Of course, not everything is about betting. The Kentucky Derby is one of the oldest horse races in the world and as such, it is brimming with tradition. Legendary winners such as Secretariat have graced the track which is regularly visited by the rich and famous. All in all, there are plenty of reasons why you should never miss the Kentucky Derby.


A Bettor’s Dream

We already mentioned that the Kentucky Derby is one of the biggest betting events in horse racing and in general. Unlike Saratoga which is primarily a handicap event (learn how to beat it here – http://agameofskill.com/you-can-beat-saratoga/), millions are placed on exotic bets at the Kentucky Derby every year, with large prizes paid out as well. To see the best online bookies that offer odds on the Kentucky Derby, visit  https://www.onlinesportbetting.ca. All the bookies at the site are properly licensed and regulated and offer exciting odds for the greatest horse race of them all. If you want to take your chances on the Kentucky Derby, pay them a visit.


Favorites Tend to do Well

Although the favorite doesn’t always win, that’s not the case with the Kentucky Derby. Favorites at the famous race tend to do well, with the last 6 races won by the betting favorite before the race. If you’re a bettor invested in the world of horse racing, the Kentucky Derby is a great pick. Now that you know that favorites tend to do well at the race, you can plan your bets with ease.


Lifestyle of the Rich and the Famous

Horse races don’t go more lavish than the Kentucky Derby. Regularly visited by the rich and famous, the list of Kentucky Derby guests includes Hollywood actors, directors, sports legends, and even members of the Royal Family. A few years back, actors Jeff and Beau Bridges were on the stands for the race, while Queen Elizabeth II, Princess Margaret, the late Muhammad Ali, and NFL legend Eli Manning have also been among the guests.


Here’s a list of the biggest celebrities at the 2019 Kentucky Derby – https://www.forbes.com/sites/msolomon/2019/05/04/celebrities-at-the-2019-kentucky-derby/#15167b376ec0.


One of the Oldest Races Around

The Grade I stakes race was inaugurated in 1875. This makes it one of the oldest races in the world and as such, it has a rich history and tradition. Commonly known as the “Run for the Roses” and “the most exciting two minutes in sports”, the Kentucky Derby is home to interesting traditions. The most-loved tradition has to be the crowd singing “My Old Kentucky Home” which sounds amazing every year.


Stunning Payouts

The Kentucky Derby is one of the horse races that regularly hand out amazing prizes. Most recently, an anonymous bettor won $78K on a measly $8 bet at the 2019 Derby. This isn’t the first time for a Kentucky Derby to pay out such amazing wins. There have been plenty of unlikely Kentucky Derby winners, and you can bet that there have been bettors that have beaten the odds as well.

Donerail still holds the record for highest paying winner ever – the horse brought one lucky bettor $185 on a $2 bet at odds of 91-1. There have been plenty 50/1 winners as well, with Mine That Bird’s win in 2009 the subject of a movie aptly named “50 to 1”.

Top Horseplayer Marshall Gramm Gambles with Preakness Stakes Entry

Memphis horse racing syndicate led by Rhodes College professor in Preakness with Longshot

Ten Strike Racing has decided to enter a horse into a Triple Crown race for the first time.

His name is Warrior’s Charge, a late-blooming colt with 12-1 odds who will be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano in the wide-open field Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

And before we suggest you bet on him – and we are very much suggesting that because if someone has to win, why not a horse with legitimate Memphis ties? – let’s explain why this particular entry is so fascinating.

“Our horse is just as fast as anyone going,” Gramm said earlier this week. “We thought it was worth the risk.”