Nilsen’s Kentucky Derby Analysis w/wagers – Full Card

Rich Nilsen qualifies for the 16th time

Get the complete analysis of the 146th Kentucky Derby card with Nilsen’s professional selections for the big race.

Nilsen covers all 14 races on Derby Day and includes his written analysis on all 18 starters in the Run for the Roses!  Along with trifecta strategies for the KY Derby, Nilsen has 4 best bets (spot plays) with wagers on the day.

As always, this is a tremendous betting card, one of the best of year!

17x NHC Qualifier & AGOS founder Rich Nilsen has his KY Derby Analysis with top picks, 4 spot plays & wagering strategies now available

  • 4 Spot Plays w/wagers
  • Full card selections for all 14 races
  • Pace Analysis for every race
  • Expert Commentary on all 18 Derby Starters
  • Top Derby picks with wagering strategies

Download it now.  17 pages, PDF, only $17.97

Nilsen’s KY Derby Analysis w/expert wagering strategies

 

 

Derby 146 Analysis with Wagering Strategies & 4 Best Bet Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Rich Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournaments and a 17-time qualifier to the $3 million National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

There are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing KY Derby card.

Testimonials About Past Analysis

“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit [Belmont Stakes 2018]!! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry… I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey!! Let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash!  Thanks Again, ” ~ Wayne M.

“Rich, thanks for your terrific analysis of the Gulfstream Park [Rainbow Six 3/31/18].  I was able to hit the Pick 6 [paid $9,018 for twenty cents!].   Anyone out there who bets horses would be well advised to download your sheet on every major race day… thanks again for a job well done.” ~ Evan C.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

Tiz The Law Has His Own Ice Cream

From Stewart’s Shops in Saratoga:

Tiz  the Law is on a winning streak! He recently took the Traver’s Stakes in Saratoga after winning the Belmont Stakes and he’s headed to Kentucky to run in the Kentucky Derby! To celebrate our hometown hero, we’ve bestowed him with Stewart’s highest honor, a dedicated ice cream flavor.

This Limited Edition flavor has a chocolate ice cream base with baked brownie and cheesecake pieces. It is available in cones, shakes, sundaes, and hand packed pints at the cone counter. This flavor was chosen because the chocolate base resembles Tiz the Law’s coloring and his owner Jack Knowlton of Sackatoga Stable requested a chocolate flavor. You may remember the flavor, Funny Cide Pride from 17 years ago, it was a customer favorite.

Tiz the Law will be available all 337 Stewart’s Shops. Look for it at the cone counter on Monday, 8/31/20 through Sunday, 10/4/20.

Born into slavery, He won the Kentucky Derby three times and became the richest American athlete

Born into slavery in Clark County, Kentucky, in 1861, he moved to Lexington with his mother after the end of the Civil War. In 1874, his mother, perhaps due to ill health or the loss of her savings in a bank crash, apprenticed the teenager to James T. Williams, a horse breeder. He learned to care for and exercise the horses. Eli Jordan, a friend of his mother’s, took a special interest in the boy and taught him the intricacies of pace and horse racing. Since he was small, he was an ideal jockey.  Who is he?

Source: Born into slavery, this man won the Kentucky Derby three times and became the richest American athlete

DID YOU MISS?

Are the Kentucky Derby Points a good selection tool?

Are Kentucky Derby and Oaks Points a Useful Selection Tool?

by Art Parker

In 2013 the criteria for being able to enter the Kentucky Derby was measured by graded stakes earnings accumulated during the career of a three year old. The idea was to award those that performed well in certain races known as “Derby Preps.” These races are the traditional big races in the spring when racing eyes are beginning to envision the first Saturday in May.

While this year has been quite a bit different due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the Kentucky Derby points system is still the measurement used to determine who gets into the gate on September 5, the Derby Day of 2020. The actual races may have changed a bit but the point system is still the determinant.

On the Derby Leaderboard the clear favorite for the race, Tiz the Law, has 372 points after embarrassing competition in several outings this year, most notably the Travers, which was his last start.

Churchill Downs Stock UpgradedThe second horse behind the leader is Authentic, one of two Bob Baffert charges. Authentic has 200 points which puts him slightly above half of what the Tiz the Law has accumulated. Comparing the point differential from first to second in prior years tells us that Tiz the Law is in a league of his own – at least based on points. This has been the difference in other years: zero, one, 13, 16, 18, 21, and 30. The number that looks so big, 30, was Derby winner’s California Chrome’s number over Vicar’s in Trouble in 2014. By the way, only one other point’s leader that has won the Derby was in 2013, when Orb romped home on a muddy track.

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Since California Chrome no point’s leader has won the Derby. The winner in 2019, Country House, was 17th in points in a Derby we all wish to forget, except the winner’s connections. In 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify was ninth sporting only his Santa Anita Derby win. In 2017 Always Dreaming was seventh in points. In 2016 Derby winner Nyquist was second in points to eventual great Gun Runner. When American Pharoah won the Triple Crown in 2015 he was fourth on the points list.

Should you select a Derby winner based upon on points? According to this, the answer is no, based on history. However, no other horse has held such a colossal amount of points over the competition.

The points leaderboard for the Kentucky Oaks looks similar. Swiss Skydiver has been on tour winning four major races in four different states. Her point total for the Kentucky Oaks is a whopping 450. In second is Speech with only 160 points. The difference of 290 points is hard to imagine. Like the Derby, let’s look at the point differential between the leader and second place. The only Oaks winner that led in points was Untapable in 2014. The point differential between first and second on the leaderboard has been, zero, zero, 6, 10, 19, 20, and Untapable’s 40.

In 2019 Serengeti Empress won the Oaks and was eighth on the points list. In 2018 Oaks winner Monomy Girl was second on the points list to Midnight Bisou. Abel Tasman won the Oaks in 2017 and was seventh on the points list. In 2016 Cathryn Sophia captured the Oaks while finishing sixth in the points race. Lovely Maria won the 2015 Oaks and was fifth in points. Before Untapable in 2013 Princess of Sylmar finished seventh on the points list and won the Oaks.

Like the points question asked earlier about the Derby, should you select an Oaks winner based upon on points? According to this, the answer is no, based on history. However, just like the point differential in the Derby, no other horse has held such a colossal amount of points over the competition in the Oaks.

A major consideration in the Oaks points this year is Bob Baffert’s filly, Gamine. The superstar is ninth on the points list but has raced in only one race with points – The Acorn at Belmont.

For a final, up to date listing of points for the Derby and the Oaks.

Appeals Court Upholds Arizona Horse Racing Signals Law

A federal appeals court won’t block enforcement of a law that requires companies that provide off-track betting signals to sell them to anyone who will buy then.

In a unanimous ruling, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected arguments by the attorney for Monarch Content Management that the Arizona Legislature had no right to enact the 2019 law. The judges said nothing in the state’s regulation of OTB signals conflicts with federal laws regulating horse racing and wagering.

The judges also rejected claims that the statute interfered with the company’s First Amendment rights and its right to contract.

But it still does not mean that the owners of Arizona Downs in Prescott Valley, who had pushed for the law, are getting the signals they want for its seven OTB sites. Instead, Monarch, faced with the all-or-nothing choice simply chose the latter.

Co-owner Tom Auther said that’s a victory…

CHRB’s Baedeker Wants Late Odds Changes Addressed

copyright Agameofskill.com“After a staff report and presentation by California Horse Racing Board executive director Rick Baedeker on his concerns about computer-robotic wagering, specifically late odds changes, the regulator decided to form a committee to examine the issue….”

Editor’s Note: So this article is from 2018.  Where are we at 2 years later?  No where.  Nothing has been done at any track in the country.

More about Late Odds Changes: CHRB’s Baedeker Wants Late Odds Changes Addressed

Thoroughbred Round Table Conference Speakers Call for Reforms

“A clean sport is good for business.” ~ Greg LeMond, a three-time Tour de France winner

That comment epitomized overarching themes on the importance of integrity and reform in horse racing at the August 16, 2020, 68th Annual Round Table Conference on Matters Pertaining to Racing, which was held virtually on jockeyclub.com and on TVG’s and Racetrack Television Network’s respective platforms.

A video replay of the conference is available on jockeyclub.com, and full transcripts will be available on the same site this week.

Bet Big. Win Big at Del Mar

Del Mar racingSource: Del Mar (dmtc.com)

A player at Maryland’s AmTote hub bet big bucks Saturday (8/15/2020) trying to solve the mystery of Del Mar’s Pick Six. He did and took home a prize of $317,002.

To get that winning ticket, our Maryland gambler invested $65,146 which, on the face of it, seems outrageous. But he or she will tell you otherwise tonight as they cashed a bet that roughly came to a 5-1 score.

The winning horses in the exotic wager were: 6th Race — #6 C’mon Jenna ($10.40); 7th Race — #2 Undeniable Proof ($6.40); 8th Race — #5 Forest Caraway ($25.80); 9th Race – #5 Pulpit Rider ($24.80); 10th Race — #6 Pyron ($3.20), and 11th Race — #6 Mithqaal ($18.00).

Did you miss handicapping tip #60 – read it here

Del Mar adds additional day of racing

Pennsylvania Horse Racing handle drops by more than 10% in 2019

Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board released the Annual Racetrack Casino Benchmark Report detailing the impact of Pennsylvania casinos on the Commonwealth’s horse racing industry. The report is now available for download from the PGCB’s web site https://gamingcontrolboard.pa.gov.

The report includes and compares information from calendar year 2019.

The taxable handle generated by Pennsylvania’s six race tracks dropped by more than 10.7% in 2019 to around $300 million, the report shows, a decrease of more than $36.1 million from the previous year.

The taxable handle has dropped every year since the reporting began. In 2006, the taxable handle from all tracks was just under $976 million.

That means handle fell by more than two-thirds in 13 years. The taxable handle was cut in half by 2013 when it dropped to $480.6 million.

That’s not unique to PA, the report notes, and is due to a decreasing demand for retail horse betting.

Turf Paradise Cancels Fall/Winter Meet

Turf Paradise will not run its 2020-21 meet due to challenges related to COVID-19, track representatives told the Arizona Racing Commission in a video conference Aug. 13. The Arizona track has traditionally run a meet from the fall through early May.

Turf Paradise announced last month that it planned to run a shortened season, but a previously-proposed 121-day meet that was to begin Nov. 1 was scrapped early during the commission meeting by track representatives. The track last raced March 10, an early ending to its 2019-20 meet.

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