A Handicapper’s Look at Canterbury Park, the Low Takeout Track

May 26, 2023 by Leave a Comment

Canterbury Parkby The Oracle

Opening day of the 2023 Canterbury Park live racing meet is Saturday, May 27! That means it’s time to look back at the 2022 Canterbury Park live meet from a statistical standpoint and use that data to help us better predict the outcomes of the 2023 Canterbury Park races.

Canterbury Park offers many low-takeout wagers, including the Pick 4, Pick 5 and a brand-new Turf Pick 3 that will be offered on Wednesday nights. It will pay to get involved in these wagers at Canterbury Park.

Here’s a look at some final statistics for the thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park in 2022, as we prepare to unlock the 2023 Canterbury Park handicapping puzzle…

Favorites at Canterbury Park

The public correctly selected the winner 41% of the time in all thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park last year. That is 3-percentage points above the national average for winning favorites at all racetracks in North America in 2022, and equal to how favorites fared at Canterbury Park in 2021. All categories of races, including turf, dirt, sprint, route, maiden, claiming, and allowance races showed favorites winning between 39% and 43% of the time. This varied quite a bit from previous years, when the turf races had…continue reading about the Numbers at Canterbury Park

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How Well Do Favorites Perform?

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Preakness Stakes Analysis with Wagering Strategies

May 19, 2023 by Leave a Comment

by Rich Nilsen

Pace analysis: There is not a lot of speed in this year’s running of the Preakness Stakes.  Longshot Coffeewithchris will likely insist on the early lead, as National Treasure and John Velasquez sit in close pursuit, ready to pounce.  There should be a gap of a couple of lengths to Mage running in the third spot.

Top Selection: # 1 NATIONAL TREASURE (4/1) – comes off a troubled trip when a respectable 4th in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and now makes his first start back for Bob Baffert, who has won this race no less than seven times.  The son of Quality Road dons new blinkers for today’s race and he’s been training up a storm in preparation for a race that he has been pointed to by the Hall of Fame trainer.  He should sit a perfect, forward-running trip in a race featuring a modest pace and prove the one to catch in the lane. John Velasquez, who has been riding great recently, is in search of his first Preakness win, one of the few races he lacks on his incredible resume.

2nd Selection: # 3 MAGE (8/5) – this colt has done absolutely nothing wrong in his career and I see no reason why he won’t run another bang-up race.  The Gustave Delago runner has won twice in his career, both times at double-digit odds, but he will likely be odds-on here.  A win would not be a surprise but I think the Baffert charge has just a good a chance and will offer more value.

3rd Selection: #6 PERFORM (15/1) – the Shug McGaughey runner is the value play in this field.  He overcame all sorts of traffic issues to storm home and win the Fedrico Tesio Stakes at Laurel last time out.  It’s interesting that Shug chose to run this horse instead of Pat Day Mile winner General Jim.  Perform is sitting on another strong effort.

Wagering Strategy: Play # 1 National Treasure to Win.  Exacta partwheel over 3, 6.  Smaller exacta 6-1.  Trifecta key #1 over 3, 6.

Get the Pace Scenarios for every race at Pimlico on Preakness Saturday.  Pace Makes the Race!

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Nilsen’s Simple Pace Report for Pimlico Saturday – Preakness Day

May 17, 2023 by Leave a Comment

All 28 races for Friday and Saturday at Pimlico covered in one report, the new Nilsen Simple Pace Report. Use this as a vital tool to supplement your handicapping for these two great days!

the Big A race horsePace Makes the Race

One of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario.

After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market.

Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.  There are several of these ‘pace advantage horses’ on both days at Pimlico.

Download today and get both cards in one report for only $7.  Instant download to any device.

 

 

Read the latest news – What was life like for NY horseplayers decades ago?

Get Rich Nilsen’s complimentary analysis of the Preakness Stakes

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What Was Life Back in the 70s and 80s for New York Horseplayers?

May 13, 2023 by Leave a Comment

“Few newcomers to the sport could believe what we dinosaurs actually had to go through just to get a bet in and then try to find the results.  Although it was a very comfortable time in racing with many excellent horses, there were certainly a few bumps in the road if you wanted to gamble. Here’s but a glimpse into the past and what a dedicated New York horseplayer had to endure, as well as the “perks” he received in the 1970s and 80s.

In the area surrounding Ozone Park, the locals would be bustling around on race day anticipating the gates opening at Aqueduct. Some were waiting to get in and others hawking newspapers, racing forms, or selection sheets.  Peter Monaco tells what life was like back in the 70s and 80s for NY horseplayers

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Simple Pace Report for Saturday, May 13

May 12, 2023 by Leave a Comment

the Big A race horseOne of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.

Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario. After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market. Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.

Find out the 3 races featuring a fast paces that could set up for a closer, and the one race with forecasted pedestrian-like pace.  All 11 races forecasted for a big day of racing from Belmont Park. Only $5

 

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Flutter Sports Betting On Cruise Control. U.S. Business Booming

May 9, 2023 by Leave a Comment

New Jersey Sports Betting Handle Smashes Own Record With $562.7 Million In NovemberPaddy Power owner Flutter Entertainment’s revenue rose 54 per cent to more than €2.7 billion in the first three months of the year, new figures show.

The Irish betting giant said on Wednesday that the average number of people betting regularly on its website rose 30 per cent to 12.3 million a month in the first quarter.

Flutter reported that revenue grew 54 per cent to £2.41 billion (€2.73 billion) in the three months ended March 31st, 2023, from £1.57 billion during the same period last year.

Revenue in its US business almost doubled, increasing 92 per cent to £908 million in the first quarter from £429 million during the opening…more on Flutter Sports Betting

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Kentucky Derby 149, the Kentucky Derby Day Program, and Kentucky Derby Week Races All Set New Handle Records

May 8, 2023 by Leave a Comment

Mage Crowned Winner of 2023 Kentucky DerbyLOUISVILLE, KY., – Churchill Downs Incorporated (“CDI”) (Nasdaq: CHDN) announced that a spirited and vibrant crowd of 150,335 Derby fans at Churchill Downs Racetrack (“Churchill Downs”) witnessed Mage claim the Garland of Roses at the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve at 15-1 odds under mostly sunny skies. CDI also announced that wagering from all sources was the highest all-time on the Kentucky Derby race, the Kentucky Derby Day program, and Kentucky Derby Week races.

Mage Upsets the Kentucky Derby

Mage, owned by OGMA Investments, LLC (Gustavo Delgado), Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing (Sam Herzberg) and Commonwealth Thoroughbred LLC (Brian Doxtator and Chase Chamberlin), bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine (Robert Clay), trained by Gustavo Delgado, and ridden by Javier Castellano, rallied to win by a length. Mage covered the mile and a quarter in 2.01.57 over a fast track.

Wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program set a new record of $288.7 million, beating last year’s record of $273.8 million. All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $188.7 million, beating the previous record of $179.0 million set in 2022. All-sources handle for Derby Week rose to a new record of $412.0 million, beating last year’s record of $391.8 million.

TwinSpires, the official betting partner of the Kentucky Derby, handled a new record of $73.6 million in wagering on Churchill Downs races for the Kentucky Derby Day program, compared to last year’s record of $67.4 million. TwinSpires’ handle on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $47.0 million, beating last year’s record of $44.0 million.
“We were thrilled to debut our new First Turn Experience, a one-of-a-kind premium accommodation with exclusive views of the horses and the racetrack from the rail of the first turn, as we commemorated the 50th anniversary of Secretariat’s victory in the Run for the Roses,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of CDI. “We expect the Kentucky Derby Week Adjusted EBITDA to reflect a new record with $14 to $16 million of growth over the prior record set last year. We will now accelerate our focus on our year-long celebration in preparation for the 150th Kentucky Derby in May 2024.”

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Forte Scratched Out of the Kentucky Derby

May 6, 2023 by Leave a Comment

The morning line favorite Forte has been ruled out of the Kentucky Derby.  The Florida Derby and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner had an odd stumble in a routine gallop on Thursday, and after that, there were constant rumors that he may join a growing list of horses scratching out of the big race.  The rumors were confirmed on the first Saturday in May.

The bad news that Forte was scratched out of the Kentucky Derby was confirmed by David Grening of the Daily Racing Form around 9am ET on Derby morning.

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Nilsen’s Expert Kentucky Derby Analysis w/wagers – Online for 2023

May 4, 2023 by Leave a Comment

KY Derby Updates: Practical Move scratched from the Derby.  All Saffie Joseph, Jr. horses scratched for the weekend, including Lord Miles in the Ky Derby.

Order the full report of the 149th Kentucky Derby with Nilsen’s professional selections and expert analysis for the big race.

Rich Nilsen handicapperThere are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s amazing KY Derby card.  Nilsen’s goal has always been to provide an affordable sheet for any racing fan on one of the biggest racing days of the year.

18x NHC Qualifier & AGOS founder Rich Nilsen offers his KY Derby Analysis with top picks, spot plays & wagering strategies

  • 3 Spot Plays w/wagers
  • Full-card selections for all 14 races
  • Pace forecast for every race on Saturday
  • Expert Commentary on the top KY Derby contenders

As always, KY Derby Day is a tremendous betting card, one of the best of year.  This is the Expert Kentucky Derby Analysis you need on the big race day!

Order now at the affordable AGOS price of only $17.97.  

Nilsen’s KY Derby Analysis w/expert wagering strategies – click the button below to download instantly to any device:

 

Derby 149 Analysis with Wagering Strategies & Best Bet Spot Plays by Rich Nilsen

Nilsen Crushes 2022 KY Oaks (bonus play) with 4-1 overlay SECRET OATH, the exacta and the trifecta! Here was his write-up:

KENTUCKY OAKS – FRIDAY, MAY 6, 2022

Churchill Downs, race 11, post time 5:51 ET

Expected Pace: Fast pace is likely in this grueling 9 furlong classic. Echo Zulu and Yuugiri will both flash good early foot and ensure honest fractions. Several other runners will be in close pursuit, including the morning line favorite Nest.

Top Selection: # 1 SECRET OATH (6/1) – will get a favorable, ground-saving trip from the rail post and also figures to get first jump on the closers in this large field for the Kentucky Oaks. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee suffered a brutal trip last time out as one of the main contenders in the Arkansas Derby, but prior to that, she was dominating her own sex.  She’ll appreciate the return to this spot with new rider Luis Saez aboard (a major upgrade). Look for her to get D.Wayne his first Oaks win since 1990 and add to his historic resume.

2nd Selection: # 4 Nest (5/2) enters in razor sharp form and will relish a wet track if the main course is a mess late in the day.

3rd Selection: # 2 Nostalgic (15/1) closed powerfully into a slow pace in the Gazelle S. at Aqueduct last time out and is bred to love the 9 furlong distance.  Also bred to move up on wet going. 15/1 would be an absurd price on the Mott trainee with Jose Ortiz in the irons.

4th Selection: # 13 Shahama (15/1) undefeated Munnings filly has been training exceptionally well for new trainer Todd Pletcher.  Drew a tough post but could still run a big one at square odds.

Wagering Strategies: Bet #1 Secret Oath to Win.  Exacta box 1-2-4-13 ($24 cost for every $2 increment).  Trifecta partwheel 1 with 2, 4, 7, 13 with ALL ($44 cost for $1 increments).  Trifecta partwheel 1 with ALL with 2, 4, 7, 13  ($22 cost for $0.50 increments).

Rich Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournaments and an 18-time qualifier to the $3 million National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

 

Testimonials About Past Analysis

“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit [Belmont Stakes 2018]!! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry… I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey!! Let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash!  Thanks Again, ” ~ Wayne M.

“Rich, thanks for your terrific analysis of the Gulfstream Park [Rainbow Six 3/31/18].  I was able to hit the Pick 6 [paid $9,018 for twenty cents!].   Anyone out there who bets horses would be well advised to download your sheet on every major race day… thanks again for a job well done.” ~ Evan C.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

Get The Wizard for the two big race days

KY Oaks and KY Derby. Complete with wagering strategies from America’s #1 public handicapper.

Wizard’s KY Derby 5/6 Package (Full card Analysis + Betting Strategies, $45). Download instantly to any device:

 

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The Wizard for Saturday at Churchill Downs. KY Derby Tools

May 4, 2023 by Leave a Comment

Get The Wizard for the two big race days

KY Oaks and KY Derby. Complete with wagering strategies from America’s #1 public handicapper.

Wizard’s KY Derby 5/6 Package (Full card Analysis + Betting Strategies, $45). Download instantly to any device:

 

PACE MAKES THE RACE

All 27 races for Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs covered in one report, the new Nilsen Simple Pace Report. Use this as a vital tool to supplement your handicapping for these two great days!

Why Pace?

One of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario. After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market.

Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.

Download today and get Saturday’s card for only $10.  Instant download to any device.

 

It’s back! The 2023 Kentucky Derby Guide from handicapping guru Derek Simon is the only guide of its kind for the greatest two minutes in sports!

Simon’s in-depth KY Derby report offers 24 pages of insightful information on the most exciting two minutes in sports, the 149th Kentucky Derby.  Just some of the content includes:

Simon’s Historical Investment Technique

The top four S.H.I.T. choices have won 21 of the last 30 renewals of America’s most famous race (70.0 percent), good for a profit of $16,290 for a $100 win bet on each qualified selection.  One horse stands out here and he will be a huge price on the first Saturday in May!

Final Fractions Theory

Derek expounds on the now popular Final Fractions Theory, which was conceived by Colonel Edward R. Bradley and popularized by Jennie Rees. Using more scientific, dynamic values for lengths, find out who the fastest finishers among the Derby entrants are.

Find out:

What trait do 78% of Kentucky Derby winners since 1967 share? What single factor has produced an ROI of 122.5% since 1997? Find out on page 6!

Discover the the workouts trend that has produced a 1-for-74 record in the Derby since 1997 from those that have led to huge profits. Find out on page 8!

Speed Ratings – An in-depth discussion of Brisnet speed figures and what they mean, with an emphasis on “the bounce.”  See the speed rating pattern that has produced zero Kentucky Derby winners (from 38 starters) since 1992. Observe the pattern that has produced a 54 percent ROI as well! Page 16 has the details!  And much more

Download instantly today and attack the Run for the Roses.  Only $25

Derek Simon’s 2023 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide is Here.  Download Today

 

 

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