Breeders’ Cup Preparation – Part II

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by Glen S.

Now that you have watched your replays and have some solid opinions on horses to either bet or bet against, it’s time to move on to the next step. Start looking at additional handicapping resources to get the extra info you may need.

Part II: More preparing for the Breeders Cup

Santa AnitaGood and bad information. Step one: understand the source you are getting this info from. Some information that is given out is simply an opinion. For example “Horse A should really take to the Santa Anita surface.” Why does this person think that – is it breeding, is it because he saw a race at another track with a similar surface or did the trainer mention to him that the training sessions have been good? I would only take that above statement if it was the last source.

At this point I wouldn’t listen to anyone’s selections. We know all the horses entered but what happens if one of them isn’t entered or scratched? Another speed horse doesn’t enter or gets scratched and now there is no pace to run it. Scenarios like this completely change the race shape.

What I would look at is how the horses got to where they are at now. Some runners needed to win the previous race to get in, while other runners would not be fully cranked. McKinzie, I am not sure if the horse was or was not fully cranked for his last race, but McKinzie didn’t need to win and get in.

There are many proven trends that show which horses do well at the Breeders Cup by going in certain races and which ones struggle. Get to know those trends. There is lots of information you can find about that. I follow the trends like this, a favorite should have strong trends (and few holes) before I would consider them. Longshot are longshots for a reason, there are always a few holes in them somewhere.  Find the positives you can grab on to.

Only one week to go, don’t get left behind in the research.

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 16-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He cashed on the NHC Tour for 2018 with a 19th overall finish. Rich was also a winner of a $24,000 package into Kentucky Derby Betting Championship I. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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