About Editor

Rich Nilsen is an 18-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 of the NHC twice. A former executive with Brisnet.com and a member of the NHC Players’ Committee, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

About Editor

Rich Nilsen is an 18-time qualifier to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 of the NHC twice. A former executive with Brisnet.com and a member of the NHC Players’ Committee, Rich is a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program and is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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A Breeders’ Success with Belmont Stakes Contender Angel of Empire

2023 Belmont Stakes Odds, Picks, Post Positions: Il MiracoloIt’s not hard to fashion The Dream when you see the subtle pitch of a long, lush Kentucky bluegrass paddock rolling softly toward the background where the iconic view of grazing horses sets the frame. Champion… Sire.

It takes an imagination a bit more sturdy, perhaps even wild, for the same thought to strike the mind while climbing through the cut-valley terrain of Pine Grove, Pennsylvania, home of Blackstone Farm, the state’s leading Thoroughbred breeder and birthplace of Angel of Empire, a colt who finished third in the Kentucky Derby in May and will likely be one of the favorites in The Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

Because every so often the Mid-Atlantic will produce a horse to rival the Kentucky bluebloods; not flashy or impeccably bred, just fast, competitive horses who were the beneficiaries of athletic gifts that cannot be guaranteed in the breeding shed: Pennsylvania’s Smarty Jones, New York’s Funny Cide.

But make no mistake, it is The Sport of Kings and the Kentucky Thoroughbred (continue reading)

Met Mile and Belmont Stakes Notes

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said Zedan Racing Stables’ multiple Grade 1-winner Taiba will skip Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap, at Belmont Park.

Taiba worked seven-furlongs in 1:27.40 Friday at Santa Anita in what was to be his final prep for the one-turn mile for 3-year-olds and up which offers a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November at the Arcadia, California oval. He has not raced since an eighth-place effort in the Group 1 Saudi Cup on February 25 at King Abdulaziz Racecourse.

“His works have been good, but not like I’d like to see them. I just don’t think he’s ready for something like that yet,” said Baffert, who won the 2017 Metropolitan with Mor Spirit. “I’m going to wait and run him at Del Mar. He’s doing well, but not well enough for the Met Mile. To run in the Met Mile, you have to bring your ‘A’ game and I don’t think he’s quite there yet.”

The 4-year-old Gun Runner colt’s trio of Grade 1 scores came in the Santa Anita Derby last April, the Pennsylvania Derby in September at Parx and the Malibu in December at Santa Anita.

National Treasure Works for Belmont Stakes

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan’s Grade 1 Preakness-winner National Treasure is slated to breeze Monday in preparation for the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.

The Quality Road sophomore added blinkers and made all the running in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness on May 20 with Hall of Famer John Velazquez up, outdueling Blazing Sevens for a narrow head score with Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Mage settling for third.

Baffert said he is hopeful that National Treasure will appreciate the added ground in the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion.”

“You never know until they do it,” Baffert said. “He handled the Preakness distance and it wasn’t a problem for him. We’re all in the same boat. None of them probably want to go that far, but if they don’t go too fast, they can do it.

“I just want him to show up like he did at Pimlico,” added Baffert. “He’s never really run a bad race. All his races have been competitive. He’s a pretty consistent horse. He’s happy and he’ll breeze tomorrow and hopefully everything goes well.”

Baffert, who previously won the Belmont Stakes with Point Given [2001] and Triple Crown-winners American Pharoah [2015] and Justify [2018], will be in attendance Saturday for the final leg of the Triple Crown.

National Treasure graduated at first asking in September at Del Mar and hit the board in a trio of stakes in the Grade 1 American Pharoah [2nd] in October at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile [3rd] in November at Keeneland and the Grade 3 Sham [3rd] in January at Santa Anita. He finished fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in April ahead of his Preakness coup.

Zedan Racing Stables’ graded-stakes placed Arabian Lion rolled to a frontrunning four-length score last out under Velazquez in the 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard.

While initially under consideration for the Belmont Stakes, Baffert decided to point the Justify chestnut to the Grade 1, $400,000 Woody Stephens presented by Mohegan Sun, a seven-furlong sprint for sophomores.

“On the turnback, sometimes they run well. We’ll send him back to two turns again after that,” Baffert said.

Arabian Lion, who boasts a ledger of 6-2-2-0 for purse earnings of $217,600, entered the Sir Barton from a pacesetting runner-up effort to First Mission in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Lexington on April 15 at Keeneland.

Undercard of Belmont Stakes 2023

Baffert will also enter multiple graded-stakes placed Fort Bragg in the Woody Stephens. The Tapit colt, who was third in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December, finished second last out in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile a neck back of returning rival General Jim on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs.

“He’s still improving and filling out,” Baffert said. “He’s maturing and there’s a lot of room to improve.”

Baffert previously won the Woody Stephens with Bayern [2014] and American Anthem [2017].

The Belmont Stakes headlines the three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival that features a total of 16 stakes events from Thursday, June 8 through Saturday, June 10. For additional information on the 2023 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival and details on hospitality offerings, ticket packages and pricing, visit BelmontStakes.com.

Source: NYRA.com

Big June Ahead for French Horse Racing

France ChantillyFrench horse racing in June offers an exciting and varied calendar, featuring prestigious events such as the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club, the Prix La Coupe, the Prix de Diane, the Grand National du Trot and the Prix du Président de La République.

THE RACES:

The racecourses will be very coveted during this month of June thanks to the prestige and history of the races.

4th June – The Qatar Prix du Jockey Club will be held at the Chantilly racecourse, a race reserved for 3-year-old colts during which they will have an intense battle for the title of champion.

7th June – A few days later, the 6th stage of the Grand National du Trot will take place at the Laval racetrack. This is a must for trotting fans where many champions will compete to win this competition.

11th June – Direction the Paris-Longchamp racecourse for the Prix La Coupe which is a flat race for which horses of 4 years old and more will fight for the victory.

18th June – The show will continue at the Chantilly racetrack with the Prix de Diane, a major race in the equestrian calendar. This event is highly anticipated as it attracts the best. The race is reserved for 3-year-old fillies and is also known as the “Ladies Jockey Club”.

21st June – The Grand National du Trot will be back for the 7th stage which will take place this time on the Langon racecourse. It will be a great first for this racecourse where the best trotters will compete.

25th June – It will be on the Vincennes racecourse that will close this month of June with the Prix du Président de La République which is a mounted trotting race, this race will gather the best trotters of the country for an exceptional day.

Simple Pace Report for Memorial Day – 3 Tracks in 1

Today’s Memorial Day Pace Report covers 3 tracks: Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita. 

  • Pace Forecasts for every race
  • Covering 3 tracks for Monday: Belmont, Churchill and Santa Anita
  • New feature identifies the horses that will benefit from the pace scenario!
  • Lone speed runners identified

Miss Yearwood rallies to set stakes record at Churchill DownsNew and improved report identifies the horses that will benefit from the pace and race shape! Handicappers know that one of the most critical elements to selecting winners is to evaluate the pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at an accurate forecast for each race. Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.  Horses marked in gray/bold figure to benefit from the expected pace scenario.

All 3 tracks for May 29th for one low price! Download to any device for only $7.50

 

 

A Handicapper’s Look at Canterbury Park, the Low Takeout Track

Canterbury Parkby The Oracle

Opening day of the 2023 Canterbury Park live racing meet is Saturday, May 27! That means it’s time to look back at the 2022 Canterbury Park live meet from a statistical standpoint and use that data to help us better predict the outcomes of the 2023 Canterbury Park races.

Canterbury Park offers many low-takeout wagers, including the Pick 4, Pick 5 and a brand-new Turf Pick 3 that will be offered on Wednesday nights. It will pay to get involved in these wagers at Canterbury Park.

Here’s a look at some final statistics for the thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park in 2022, as we prepare to unlock the 2023 Canterbury Park handicapping puzzle…

Favorites at Canterbury Park

The public correctly selected the winner 41% of the time in all thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park last year. That is 3-percentage points above the national average for winning favorites at all racetracks in North America in 2022, and equal to how favorites fared at Canterbury Park in 2021. All categories of races, including turf, dirt, sprint, route, maiden, claiming, and allowance races showed favorites winning between 39% and 43% of the time. This varied quite a bit from previous years, when the turf races had…continue reading about the Numbers at Canterbury Park

Did you miss this at AGOS?

How Well Do Favorites Perform?

The Making of Sports Betting Lines

TVG Network Quenches Sports Fans’ Thirst for Live Content With Horse Racing From Around the GlobeKeith Goldner, Vice President of Data Science at FanDuel, led a workshop on the conference’s second day explaining how sports betting lines were made.

“Most people are just familiar with seeing bet lines on their phones; how does it actually work?” Goldner asked the crowd at the start of his presentation.

Goldner said the main responsibility of FanDuel data scientists is to put out probability and sports betting lines as accurately as possible. This task is accomplished through a series of data sets implemented in a specific model.

First, data scientists ask what target they are trying to measure for the sport. Are they looking to predict points? Wins? Performance?

The following impact variables are taken into account and measured through each simulation:

  • Offensive efficiency
  • Opponent defensive efficiency
  • Weather
  • Team pace
  • Opponent pace
  • Defense efficiency
  • Opponent offensive efficiency
  • Injuries

“The more simulations you run, the more accurate your predictions will be,” Goldner stated.  More on the Making of sports betting lines

Preakness Stakes Analysis with Wagering Strategies

by Rich Nilsen

Pace analysis: There is not a lot of speed in this year’s running of the Preakness Stakes.  Longshot Coffeewithchris will likely insist on the early lead, as National Treasure and John Velasquez sit in close pursuit, ready to pounce.  There should be a gap of a couple of lengths to Mage running in the third spot.

Top Selection: # 1 NATIONAL TREASURE (4/1) – comes off a troubled trip when a respectable 4th in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and now makes his first start back for Bob Baffert, who has won this race no less than seven times.  The son of Quality Road dons new blinkers for today’s race and he’s been training up a storm in preparation for a race that he has been pointed to by the Hall of Fame trainer.  He should sit a perfect, forward-running trip in a race featuring a modest pace and prove the one to catch in the lane. John Velasquez, who has been riding great recently, is in search of his first Preakness win, one of the few races he lacks on his incredible resume.

2nd Selection: # 3 MAGE (8/5) – this colt has done absolutely nothing wrong in his career and I see no reason why he won’t run another bang-up race.  The Gustave Delago runner has won twice in his career, both times at double-digit odds, but he will likely be odds-on here.  A win would not be a surprise but I think the Baffert charge has just a good a chance and will offer more value.

3rd Selection: #6 PERFORM (15/1) – the Shug McGaughey runner is the value play in this field.  He overcame all sorts of traffic issues to storm home and win the Fedrico Tesio Stakes at Laurel last time out.  It’s interesting that Shug chose to run this horse instead of Pat Day Mile winner General Jim.  Perform is sitting on another strong effort.

Wagering Strategy: Play # 1 National Treasure to Win.  Exacta partwheel over 3, 6.  Smaller exacta 6-1.  Trifecta key #1 over 3, 6.

Get the Pace Scenarios for every race at Pimlico on Preakness Saturday.  Pace Makes the Race!

Nilsen’s Simple Pace Report for Pimlico Saturday – Preakness Day

All 28 races for Friday and Saturday at Pimlico covered in one report, the new Nilsen Simple Pace Report. Use this as a vital tool to supplement your handicapping for these two great days!

the Big A race horsePace Makes the Race

One of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario.

After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market.

Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.  There are several of these ‘pace advantage horses’ on both days at Pimlico.

Download today and get both cards in one report for only $7.  Instant download to any device.

 

 


Read the latest news – What was life like for NY horseplayers decades ago?

Get Rich Nilsen’s complimentary analysis of the Preakness Stakes

What Was Life Back in the 70s and 80s for New York Horseplayers?

“Few newcomers to the sport could believe what we dinosaurs actually had to go through just to get a bet in and then try to find the results.  Although it was a very comfortable time in racing with many excellent horses, there were certainly a few bumps in the road if you wanted to gamble. Here’s but a glimpse into the past and what a dedicated New York horseplayer had to endure, as well as the “perks” he received in the 1970s and 80s.

In the area surrounding Ozone Park, the locals would be bustling around on race day anticipating the gates opening at Aqueduct. Some were waiting to get in and others hawking newspapers, racing forms, or selection sheets.  Peter Monaco tells what life was like back in the 70s and 80s for NY horseplayers

Simple Pace Report for Saturday, May 13

the Big A race horseOne of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.

Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario. After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market. Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.

Find out the 3 races featuring a fast paces that could set up for a closer, and the one race with forecasted pedestrian-like pace.  All 11 races forecasted for a big day of racing from Belmont Park. Only $5