AGOS Horses to Watch – Dec. 3, 2017

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AGOS Horses to Watch

The winter ovals are opening the doors and we’re ready to follow the horses as they make their next stop. But as we ready for the next oval, we need to keep our eyes open for problem runners who have an excuse. They may not have had a good break, stumbled or blocked down the lane. As handicappers, we are always looking to build our bankroll and there is no better time than now.  Keep your eyes peeled and have these runners on your radar.

Churchill Downs

11/18/17

Race #4 – #9 – Sky Promise – 1 1/16 on the turf

#9 – Sky Promise = Son of Sky Mesa for the Ken McPeek barn. He was adding first-time blinkers and had the services of Robby Albarado. The track was listed as yielding and he seems to enjoy a surface with a little “cut” to it. This day he was tracking from the back and made a strong 4 wide bid to get the show dough.

Race #7 – #2 – Like a Haint – 6f on the main

#2 – Like a Haint = Filly by Archarcharch is fresh off two straight claims and was a beaten favorite the last two. She loves CD going 5/6 ITM. She had the services of apprentice Edgar Morales and was rallying strongly on the outside. The leader and eventual winner floated out a little bit near the wire and won by a head. Some would call it race riding and others would dismiss it as a bad streak of luck. – You’ll need to follow her back as she’ll probably head to Turfway Park.

Fair Grounds

11/18/17

Race #2 – #9 – Much Trouble – 1 and 70 yards on the main

#9 -Much Trouble = Miguel Mena in the saddle for Thom Amoss. Shipping in from Indiana Grand and was a beaten favorite last out. He owned a bullet work over the course and looked to fit. He was carried out at the 3/4 and forced to check up sharply at the 1/8th pole. After all this, he still managed a strong place finish.

Aqueduct

11/11/17

Race #2 – Claiming – 1 mile on the turf – #2 – Ode to the Hunt

#2 – Ode to the Hunt = Jose Ortiz in the saddle and making a drop in class. This son of Artie Schiller has been off for two months and had two solid efforts making a big closing move. He was pinched back at the break and was fanned out 6-7 wide on the turf trying to make up for lost time. He was widest of all down the lane and grabbed the show dough.

Race #6 – Mdn Sp Wt – 7f – #8 – Home Run Maker

#8 – Home Run Maker = Luis Saez in the irons for Jeremiah Englehart and this two-yr-old colt was making his second lifetime start rolling in off a sharp work. Once the gate broke he stumbled badly at the start and rushed up to grab the lead. His rider was forced to alter course around the far turn and all the commotion looked to take a toll on the colt. He still managed an honest 3rd place effort and should be dangerous next out.

Del Mar

11/11/17

Race #2 – Claiming – 5 1/2f on the dirt – #1 – Pattin for a Dance

#1 – Pattin for a Dance = Iggy Puglisi in the saddle and she was making her third start off the layoff move cutting back from a mile to 5 1/2f. – She was 2/3 ITM sprinting and owned a work over the track. She broke tardy and made up tons of ground at a very good price around the turn. Sprinting looks to be a part of her game and should be a factor coming off a 3rd place effort.

Race #4 – Starter $50,000 – 1 mile on the turf – #3 – Red King

#3 – Red King = Son of English Channel was coming off a two-month break and had the services of Flavien Prat. Beaten favorite last out, and the Vlad Cerin barn comes back to win 19% on this move. He did an excellent job tracking and made a horse splitting move at the tip of the lane making good headway. He had a powerful late kick and just ran out of real estate.

Race #8 – OC $40,000 – 5f on the turf – #3 – Painting Corners

#3 – Painting Corners = Filly from the red-hot barn of Peter Miller (36%) cutting back in distance from 6 1/2f to 5f on the green. Beaten favorite last out and the barn comes back to win 25% getting payback. – Flavien Prat in the saddle and was sent off the odds-on favorite. She was tracking just off the pace and when she tried to make a move at Prat’s urging she lacked room and forced to steady off heels. Once a hole appeared she made a good late surge showing promise for next out.

Del Mar

11/19/17

Race #7 – #10- Pants on Fire – 1 mile on the turf

#10 – Pants on Fire = Corey Nakatani in the irons for Richard Baltas. 3-yr-old filly by Sir Percy (GB) is regally bred for the green. She came flying and would have taken flight if she had wings. The way she maneuvered through runners and weaved in and out closing like gangbusters. – Follow her right back.

Race #8 – #2 – Solid Wager – $100k Cary Grant – 7f on the main

#2 – Solid Wager = Peter Miller is the conditioner and he has been red-hot winning 33%. He was a beaten favorite last out and was left at the post this day. – Victor Espinoza saved ground and swung out gamely making a strong 5 wide move. Everything seemed to fit and he’ll give them fits next time out.

 

 

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About Editor

Rich Nilsen is a 12-time qualifier to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC), an event he has cashed in four times. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He recently won a $24,000 package into the 2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Championship. A former executive with Brisnet.com, Rich is also a graduate of the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. He is founder of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.

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