Ross Gallo continues offering his wisdom from 30 years of handicapping with the remaining five steps from his article last week.
Don’t be afraid to use the “All” button on occasion. Handicappers are a proud lot. I know guys who will never press “All”. “There’s always throwouts.” Or, “The 5, 7 and 8 can’t win here.” I get it, really. You know what you’re doing, you can weed out the race and it’s a waste of money. Well, I contend that horses win every day that you couldn’t have had with tomorrow’s paper. And I certainly don’t think you should always use it, but sometimes there are races so hard they can’t be handicapped. And the extra cost will repay you in the long run with just a couple of those “impossible” wrinkles.
An example: 2007 the first year the Breeders Cup went to two days, I was at Canterbury Park preparing to play in my handicapping tournament (yes I had a real-money high end BC tournament, LONG before the BCBC. But that’s a story for another day), a few buddies and I decided to pitch in and play the late Pick 4. I took everyone’s opinion and started writing up the play. We agreed on two things, the first leg was impossible and we liked Corinthian in the last leg, the Dirt Mile. I felt I was done when I noticed we had left four horses out of the first leg. I wrote one last ticket, those four with our top three horses in both of the next two legs and Corinthian in the last. $36 out of a total $600 play, only 6% of the play. Impossible horse wins first leg, $60 or $80 to win I think. Top 3 win next two, and Corinthian jogs. The payoff: $24,000.
We’re high fiving and celebrating, another friend comes up to me, ‘How on earth did you guys come up with that first horse?!” “All” button baby! Can’t cash a Pick 4 if you’re not alive.” With 50 cent Pick 3, 4 and 5’s, 10 cents supers and Pick 6’s out there, the cost of this practice, on occasion, is not as severe as one might think. And I would point out, in a 10 cents super, you might only need one of those 80-1 shots to run third or fourth to make you a big score.
ALWAYS bet against Bridge Jumpers. Bridge Jumpers, for those of you who might not know, are people who see what looks like a sure thing horse and bet huge amounts to show in order to grab that quick 5% return. $100,000 to show will earn you a $5,000 profit. This will often work, but as everyone knows there is no such thing as a sure thing. Play everyone else to show every time in this scenario. The risk is minimal. In a six horse race, for example, a $5 show bet on everyone else in the race (besides the favorite) will cost $25 and you’re guaranteed $10.50 back. In an extreme situation, if one of those horses miss, you could average $75 a show ticket. That would get you a return of $562.50. The payoffs aren’t always that big, but the upside far outweighs the risk. These horses run out on occasion, and in the long run you can’t lose playing against them. Bet $2, $5, $10, $20, or even $100. Whatever your bankroll allows, whenever you see a horse with 95% of the Show pool or more, NEVER pass on any of these opportunities.
“My friend just burned $600 because he’s up there calling numbers out and has no clue what he has or hasn’t got. “
Try to find a rebate program. There are so many of them out there these days. Most of the online services, and even some tracks offer cash back. Ask your friends what they’re doing, but definitely look around. The more you bet, the more they’ll give you, but even a percentage point back can have a positive effect on your bottom line come year’s end.
Keep a playback/play against list. DRF and Brisnet.com both offer Stable Mail for free. Easy to use, for sure, and invaluable. You see a horse get stopped several times, come late for a sneaky fifth, you have to bet him back. With horses changing tracks it’s easy to miss him if you don’t have an email notification service. Conversely, I find keeping horses to play against next out just as valuable. Odds-on favorite gets perfect trip and is all out to beat a 30-1 shot and looks terrible doing it. Form will look good with the win, but that’s a horse that will get bet next out that I want to eliminate. Betting against low priced horses that you’re fairly sure are throwouts? It doesn’t get much better than that.
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Write down your bets before you go to the window. This sounds simple right? It is, but I’d love to have a dollar for every time I’ve heard something like this: “Hey what do you like this race?” “I love the 6 with 1, 2, 3.” I watch the race, it runs 621, I see my friend. “What did you get there?” “I don’t know he says as he rifles through the tickets.” “Oh no man I forgot to get the $20 exactas 6 over 1-2-3, I only have a stinking $1 tri.” Exacta paid $60 but the favorite ran third and the trifecta was $150 for a dollar. My friend just burned $600 because he’s up there calling numbers out and has no clue what he has or hasn’t got. I always write my bets down before I go to the window or sit down to bet at the computer. This way I know I’ll get what I want, and if the total comes out different than what I figured, I know I forgot something or messed up a part wheel ticket. This is a very simple tip that will save you from yourself. The game is hard enough as it is, you don’t want to leave money behind with human error.
There you have it. A few things that have worked out well for me over the years; hope they do the same for you. Happy hunting (winners) my friends!
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