Archives for May 11, 2024

FREE Saturday Horse Racing Play from

Handicapping tips from

In this new segment we provide a free horse racing play on Saturday, which includes our expert analysis and a handicapping lesson.

Race 9 at Woodbine, May 11th, post time 5:20pm ET

Pace Scenario: The track plays very fair at this 5.5 furlongs on the all weather, but tactical speed is important. There is very little early speed in this race, which emphasizes the need to be on a horse with some form of early foot.

Free AGOS Selection: # 6 QUIET MADDELENA (3/1) – this 4yo filly makes her first start of the year and first race since moving into the barn of a 20% trainer who does do well with layoff runners. The morning line favorite in this race at 2/1 has not run since 2022 and is taking a very suspicious drop in class as a 7yo mare. I feel Quiet Maddelena is rather the horse to beat in the Woodbine finale. She loves this track and has the early lick to be on or set the pace through modest fractions. Look for her to be ready to fire for her new barn and tough to run down in the lane.

Wagering strategy: Play # 6 QUIET MADDELENA to Win. Exacta partwheel with 2, 7. Reverse for half.

This analysis is for educational purposes. ALWAYS WAGER WITHIN YOUR BUDGET AND COMFORT LEVEL

RESULT: Easy winner, bet down and paid $3.20 to win. Exacta 2-7 returned $22.40!

Rich Nilsen gave out the 4-1 Kentucky Oaks winner and his third selection (and first longshot), Mystik Dan, won the Kentucky Derby at odds of 16-1!  Here were his write-ups:

Kentucky Oaks:

Top Selection: # 5 THORPEDO ANNA (5/1) – Trainer Kenny McPeek, one of the best Kentucky horsemen over the past decades in the Bluegrass State, enters the best filly he has ever trained. This brilliant daughter of Fast Anna scored first time out going 7 furlongs last fall at Keeneland and destroyed the field by 8 ½ lengths after closing from way back. You just rarely see a first time starter win like this, especially going 7 furlongs and at Keeneland. She proved that was no fluke by returning to beat allowance company by 9 lengths and running a monster triple-digit BRIS Late Pace Figure. After running second in the G2 Golden Rod, she was put on the shelf for her three-year-old season. Anna returned at Oaklawn Park and despite breaking from the 10 hole and facing a quality field, she proved her dominance once again, drawing off by 4 lengths. The G2 Fantasy winner has been training well since that start and comes into this race in prime form. She drew well and is clearly the horse to beat.

Kentucky Derby 150:

3rd Selection: # 3 Mystik Dan (20/1) – This colt was an impressive maiden winner at Churchill going only 5 ½ furlongs. He was a speed horse as a two year old, but trainer Kenny McPeek retooled this horse and developed him into a runner that can come from off the pace. And did he ever in the G3 Southwest Stakes, finishing powerfully in the mud to win by 8. I didn’t like him in the G1 Arkansas Derby, with his only big number on a wet track, but the colt ran very well with sneaky trouble. Going around the first turn, the horse to his inside bolted and slammed into Dan. That cost the colt several lengths but he did not give up. He put in a sustained run and ran a sneaky good third. He can move forward off that race, and we know he loves the track. Nice price for the exotics.