Archives for May 1, 2024

Nilsen’s Expert KY Oaks and Kentucky Derby Analysis w/wagers

Results from May 3-4, 2024

Nilsen selected the winner of the Kentucky Oaks, who paid a generous 4-1

Nilsen had Mystik Dan as his third selection and top longshot in the Kentucky Derby, winner at 16-1. Nilsen also gave out the winning trifecta wager.

In-depth analysis of Friday’s Kentucky Oaks and Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby with Nilsen’s professional selections and expert analysis in one package.

Rich Nilsen handicapperThere are a lot of pretenders out there.  Get affordable, expert advice for this year’s Kentucky Oaks and the 150th running of the KY Derby.  Nilsen’s goal has always been to provide an affordable sheet for any racing fan on one of the biggest racing weekends of the year.

19x NHC Qualifier & AGOS founder Rich Nilsen offers his KY Oaks and Derby Analysis with top picks, longshot exotic horses & wagering strategies. 

This package includes bonus coverage: full pace charts for all the races on Friday and Saturday. Know how each race is forecasted to ‘set up’ and which runners will be positioned where early in the running.

This is the Expert Kentucky Derby Analysis you need on the big race day! Nilsen has price horses in the Kentucky Derby – live longshots that can light up the toteboard in the exacta and trifecta.  He has a horse he LOVES in the Kentucky Oaks!

Order now at the affordable AGOS price of only $14.97.  

Nilsen’s KY Derby and Oaks Analysis w/expert wagering strategies – click the button below to download instantly to any device:


Oaks and Derby 150 Analysis with Wagering Strategies by Rich Nilsen

Testimonials About Past Analysis

“Hey Rich.. Thanks for putting me on Tapwrit [Belmont Stakes 2018]!! I liked him and Gormley and Irish War Cry… I had Tapwrit straight & the exacta.  Tapwrit & Gormley both had “dream trips”, But Gormley didnt want to go that far… Hey!! Let’s give some love to Disco Partner for his new North  American record for 6 panels. I had him straight  and also knocked down the exacta of 2-4 for $42.00… Hope you had a good day & made some cash!  Thanks Again, ” ~ Wayne M.

“Rich, thanks for your terrific analysis of the Gulfstream Park [Rainbow Six 3/31/18].  I was able to hit the Pick 6 [paid $9,018 for twenty cents!].   Anyone out there who bets horses would be well advised to download your sheet on every major race day… thanks again for a job well done.” ~ Evan C.

“Great job, Rich!” ~ Jeff S.

“Rich: nice job Travers Day! Thanks to Arrogate, you gave me a good day. How in the world did you land on him? I suspect you’re doing some kind of voodoo pace analysis. If you ever decide to give lessons or a seminar, let me know.” ~ Kelley S.

Nilsen Crushes 2022 KY Oaks (bonus play) with 4-1 overlay SECRET OATH, the exacta and the trifecta! Here was his write-up:


Churchill Downs, race 11, post time 5:51 ET

Expected Pace: Fast pace is likely in this grueling 9 furlong classic. Echo Zulu and Yuugiri will both flash good early foot and ensure honest fractions. Several other runners will be in close pursuit, including the morning line favorite Nest.

Top Selection: # 1 SECRET OATH (6/1) – will get a favorable, ground-saving trip from the rail post and also figures to get first jump on the closers in this large field for the Kentucky Oaks. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee suffered a brutal trip last time out as one of the main contenders in the Arkansas Derby, but prior to that, she was dominating her own sex.  She’ll appreciate the return to this spot with new rider Luis Saez aboard (a major upgrade). Look for her to get D.Wayne his first Oaks win since 1990 and add to his historic resume.

2nd Selection: # 4 Nest (5/2) enters in razor sharp form and will relish a wet track if the main course is a mess late in the day.

3rd Selection: # 2 Nostalgic (15/1) closed powerfully into a slow pace in the Gazelle S. at Aqueduct last time out and is bred to love the 9 furlong distance.  Also bred to move up on wet going. 15/1 would be an absurd price on the Mott trainee with Jose Ortiz in the irons.

4th Selection: # 13 Shahama (15/1) undefeated Munnings filly has been training exceptionally well for new trainer Todd Pletcher.  Drew a tough post but could still run a big one at square odds.

Wagering Strategies: Bet #1 Secret Oath to Win.  Exacta box 1-2-4-13 ($24 cost for every $2 increment).  Trifecta partwheel 1 with 2, 4, 7, 13 with ALL ($44 cost for $1 increments).  Trifecta partwheel 1 with ALL with 2, 4, 7, 13  ($22 cost for $0.50 increments).

Rich Nilsen is the winner of 8 major handicapping tournaments and a 19-time qualifier to the $3 million National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).


Kentucky Derby 150 Notes – Wednesday

Encino scratched yesterday. Click on the links below for the YouTube videos.
Longtime Kentucky jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. shortly after he helped out trainer Kenny McPeek by galloping his Oaks mount, Fantasy Stakes winner Thorpedo Anna, and taking her to the starting gate to school. Hernandez also rides Mystik Dan in the Derby for McPeek.

Derby 2017 by LunchboxLarry

Jockey Keith Asmussen, son of trainer Steve Asmussen and who is riding Just Steel in the Derby and Lemon Muffin in the Oaks for iconic D. Wayne Lukas.

Victor Barboza, trainer of Grand Mo the First discusses his horse.
Harry Veruchi, owner of $11,000 yearling purchase West Saratoga.
Shot last Friday but just now posted: While most of Into Champagne’s owners have been in horse racing for quite some time, the Kentucky Oaks contender is the first racehorse for Mike and Kathy Davis of Mt. washington, right outside of Louisville. the filly very quickly provided reason to pop the bubbly. Equibase statistics show that 13,153 U.S. horses raced for the first time in 2023; Into Champagne was among the 10 and half percent that won their debut. The Louisville-area partners shared what it’s like having an Oaks filly, speaking outsidetrainer Ian Wilkes’ Churchill Downs barn recently . This is a little different sort of video than I normally do, including a little voiceover at the beginning over the Hammond Productions video of Into Champagne’s workout.

Monday morning:


Michael McCarthy on Turfway’s Jeff Ruby winner Endlessly, who will make his dirt debut in Kentucky Derby 150.
Eric Foster of Utica (near Owensboro) on being in the Kentucky Oaks with his $30,000 maiden-claiming acquisition Everland. We talk to Eric about Everland, being in the Oaks and how he’s juggling being the filly’s groom and hotwalker with his help busy with the other barn horses at Keeneland and his farm in Utica, where he has a training track.
Jesus Castanon, rider of West Saratoga, who 13 years after riding in his first (and so far only) Kentucky Derby with Shackleford (who led until the sixteenth) finally is back in the race. BTW: Shackleford won the Preakness under Castanon in his next start.
Source: KY HBPA