Archives for May 2023

Big June Ahead for French Horse Racing

May 31, 2023 by Leave a Comment

France ChantillyFrench horse racing in June offers an exciting and varied calendar, featuring prestigious events such as the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club, the Prix La Coupe, the Prix de Diane, the Grand National du Trot and the Prix du Président de La République.

THE RACES:

The racecourses will be very coveted during this month of June thanks to the prestige and history of the races.

4th June – The Qatar Prix du Jockey Club will be held at the Chantilly racecourse, a race reserved for 3-year-old colts during which they will have an intense battle for the title of champion.

7th June – A few days later, the 6th stage of the Grand National du Trot will take place at the Laval racetrack. This is a must for trotting fans where many champions will compete to win this competition.

11th June – Direction the Paris-Longchamp racecourse for the Prix La Coupe which is a flat race for which horses of 4 years old and more will fight for the victory.

18th June – The show will continue at the Chantilly racetrack with the Prix de Diane, a major race in the equestrian calendar. This event is highly anticipated as it attracts the best. The race is reserved for 3-year-old fillies and is also known as the “Ladies Jockey Club”.

21st June – The Grand National du Trot will be back for the 7th stage which will take place this time on the Langon racecourse. It will be a great first for this racecourse where the best trotters will compete.

25th June – It will be on the Vincennes racecourse that will close this month of June with the Prix du Président de La République which is a mounted trotting race, this race will gather the best trotters of the country for an exceptional day.

Filed Under: Horse Racing News, International Horse Racing Tagged With:

Simple Pace Report for Memorial Day – 3 Tracks in 1

May 29, 2023 by Leave a Comment

Today’s Memorial Day Pace Report covers 3 tracks: Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita. 

  • Pace Forecasts for every race
  • Covering 3 tracks for Monday: Belmont, Churchill and Santa Anita
  • New feature identifies the horses that will benefit from the pace scenario!
  • Lone speed runners identified

Miss Yearwood rallies to set stakes record at Churchill DownsNew and improved report identifies the horses that will benefit from the pace and race shape! Handicappers know that one of the most critical elements to selecting winners is to evaluate the pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at an accurate forecast for each race. Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.  Horses marked in gray/bold figure to benefit from the expected pace scenario.

All 3 tracks for May 29th for one low price! Download to any device for only $7.50

 

 

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A Handicapper’s Look at Canterbury Park, the Low Takeout Track

May 26, 2023 by Leave a Comment

Canterbury Parkby The Oracle

Opening day of the 2023 Canterbury Park live racing meet is Saturday, May 27! That means it’s time to look back at the 2022 Canterbury Park live meet from a statistical standpoint and use that data to help us better predict the outcomes of the 2023 Canterbury Park races.

Canterbury Park offers many low-takeout wagers, including the Pick 4, Pick 5 and a brand-new Turf Pick 3 that will be offered on Wednesday nights. It will pay to get involved in these wagers at Canterbury Park.

Here’s a look at some final statistics for the thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park in 2022, as we prepare to unlock the 2023 Canterbury Park handicapping puzzle…

Favorites at Canterbury Park

The public correctly selected the winner 41% of the time in all thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park last year. That is 3-percentage points above the national average for winning favorites at all racetracks in North America in 2022, and equal to how favorites fared at Canterbury Park in 2021. All categories of races, including turf, dirt, sprint, route, maiden, claiming, and allowance races showed favorites winning between 39% and 43% of the time. This varied quite a bit from previous years, when the turf races had…continue reading about the Numbers at Canterbury Park

Did you miss this at AGOS?

How Well Do Favorites Perform?

Filed Under: Handicapping 101, Horse Racing News Tagged With: , ,

The Making of Sports Betting Lines

May 20, 2023 by Leave a Comment

TVG Network Quenches Sports Fans’ Thirst for Live Content With Horse Racing From Around the GlobeKeith Goldner, Vice President of Data Science at FanDuel, led a workshop on the conference’s second day explaining how sports betting lines were made.

“Most people are just familiar with seeing bet lines on their phones; how does it actually work?” Goldner asked the crowd at the start of his presentation.

Goldner said the main responsibility of FanDuel data scientists is to put out probability and sports betting lines as accurately as possible. This task is accomplished through a series of data sets implemented in a specific model.

First, data scientists ask what target they are trying to measure for the sport. Are they looking to predict points? Wins? Performance?

The following impact variables are taken into account and measured through each simulation:

  • Offensive efficiency
  • Opponent defensive efficiency
  • Weather
  • Team pace
  • Opponent pace
  • Defense efficiency
  • Opponent offensive efficiency
  • Injuries

“The more simulations you run, the more accurate your predictions will be,” Goldner stated.  More on the Making of sports betting lines

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Preakness Stakes Analysis with Wagering Strategies

May 19, 2023 by Leave a Comment

by Rich Nilsen

Pace analysis: There is not a lot of speed in this year’s running of the Preakness Stakes.  Longshot Coffeewithchris will likely insist on the early lead, as National Treasure and John Velasquez sit in close pursuit, ready to pounce.  There should be a gap of a couple of lengths to Mage running in the third spot.

Top Selection: # 1 NATIONAL TREASURE (4/1) – comes off a troubled trip when a respectable 4th in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and now makes his first start back for Bob Baffert, who has won this race no less than seven times.  The son of Quality Road dons new blinkers for today’s race and he’s been training up a storm in preparation for a race that he has been pointed to by the Hall of Fame trainer.  He should sit a perfect, forward-running trip in a race featuring a modest pace and prove the one to catch in the lane. John Velasquez, who has been riding great recently, is in search of his first Preakness win, one of the few races he lacks on his incredible resume.

2nd Selection: # 3 MAGE (8/5) – this colt has done absolutely nothing wrong in his career and I see no reason why he won’t run another bang-up race.  The Gustave Delago runner has won twice in his career, both times at double-digit odds, but he will likely be odds-on here.  A win would not be a surprise but I think the Baffert charge has just a good a chance and will offer more value.

3rd Selection: #6 PERFORM (15/1) – the Shug McGaughey runner is the value play in this field.  He overcame all sorts of traffic issues to storm home and win the Fedrico Tesio Stakes at Laurel last time out.  It’s interesting that Shug chose to run this horse instead of Pat Day Mile winner General Jim.  Perform is sitting on another strong effort.

Wagering Strategy: Play # 1 National Treasure to Win.  Exacta partwheel over 3, 6.  Smaller exacta 6-1.  Trifecta key #1 over 3, 6.

Get the Pace Scenarios for every race at Pimlico on Preakness Saturday.  Pace Makes the Race!

Filed Under: Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby | Triple Crown Tagged With: , ,

Nilsen’s Simple Pace Report for Pimlico Saturday – Preakness Day

May 17, 2023 by Leave a Comment

All 28 races for Friday and Saturday at Pimlico covered in one report, the new Nilsen Simple Pace Report. Use this as a vital tool to supplement your handicapping for these two great days!

the Big A race horsePace Makes the Race

One of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario.

After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market.

Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.  There are several of these ‘pace advantage horses’ on both days at Pimlico.

Download today and get both cards in one report for only $7.  Instant download to any device.

 

 

Read the latest news – What was life like for NY horseplayers decades ago?

Get Rich Nilsen’s complimentary analysis of the Preakness Stakes

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What Was Life Back in the 70s and 80s for New York Horseplayers?

May 13, 2023 by Leave a Comment

“Few newcomers to the sport could believe what we dinosaurs actually had to go through just to get a bet in and then try to find the results.  Although it was a very comfortable time in racing with many excellent horses, there were certainly a few bumps in the road if you wanted to gamble. Here’s but a glimpse into the past and what a dedicated New York horseplayer had to endure, as well as the “perks” he received in the 1970s and 80s.

In the area surrounding Ozone Park, the locals would be bustling around on race day anticipating the gates opening at Aqueduct. Some were waiting to get in and others hawking newspapers, racing forms, or selection sheets.  Peter Monaco tells what life was like back in the 70s and 80s for NY horseplayers

Filed Under: Horse Racing News, Industry Profiles Tagged With:

Simple Pace Report for Saturday, May 13

May 12, 2023 by Leave a Comment

the Big A race horseOne of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.

Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario. After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market. Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.

Find out the 3 races featuring a fast paces that could set up for a closer, and the one race with forecasted pedestrian-like pace.  All 11 races forecasted for a big day of racing from Belmont Park. Only $5

 

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Flutter Sports Betting On Cruise Control. U.S. Business Booming

May 9, 2023 by Leave a Comment

New Jersey Sports Betting Handle Smashes Own Record With $562.7 Million In NovemberPaddy Power owner Flutter Entertainment’s revenue rose 54 per cent to more than €2.7 billion in the first three months of the year, new figures show.

The Irish betting giant said on Wednesday that the average number of people betting regularly on its website rose 30 per cent to 12.3 million a month in the first quarter.

Flutter reported that revenue grew 54 per cent to £2.41 billion (€2.73 billion) in the three months ended March 31st, 2023, from £1.57 billion during the same period last year.

Revenue in its US business almost doubled, increasing 92 per cent to £908 million in the first quarter from £429 million during the opening…more on Flutter Sports Betting

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Kentucky Derby 149, the Kentucky Derby Day Program, and Kentucky Derby Week Races All Set New Handle Records

May 8, 2023 by Leave a Comment

Mage Crowned Winner of 2023 Kentucky DerbyLOUISVILLE, KY., – Churchill Downs Incorporated (“CDI”) (Nasdaq: CHDN) announced that a spirited and vibrant crowd of 150,335 Derby fans at Churchill Downs Racetrack (“Churchill Downs”) witnessed Mage claim the Garland of Roses at the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve at 15-1 odds under mostly sunny skies. CDI also announced that wagering from all sources was the highest all-time on the Kentucky Derby race, the Kentucky Derby Day program, and Kentucky Derby Week races.

Mage Upsets the Kentucky Derby

Mage, owned by OGMA Investments, LLC (Gustavo Delgado), Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing (Sam Herzberg) and Commonwealth Thoroughbred LLC (Brian Doxtator and Chase Chamberlin), bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine (Robert Clay), trained by Gustavo Delgado, and ridden by Javier Castellano, rallied to win by a length. Mage covered the mile and a quarter in 2.01.57 over a fast track.

Wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program set a new record of $288.7 million, beating last year’s record of $273.8 million. All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $188.7 million, beating the previous record of $179.0 million set in 2022. All-sources handle for Derby Week rose to a new record of $412.0 million, beating last year’s record of $391.8 million.

TwinSpires, the official betting partner of the Kentucky Derby, handled a new record of $73.6 million in wagering on Churchill Downs races for the Kentucky Derby Day program, compared to last year’s record of $67.4 million. TwinSpires’ handle on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $47.0 million, beating last year’s record of $44.0 million.
“We were thrilled to debut our new First Turn Experience, a one-of-a-kind premium accommodation with exclusive views of the horses and the racetrack from the rail of the first turn, as we commemorated the 50th anniversary of Secretariat’s victory in the Run for the Roses,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of CDI. “We expect the Kentucky Derby Week Adjusted EBITDA to reflect a new record with $14 to $16 million of growth over the prior record set last year. We will now accelerate our focus on our year-long celebration in preparation for the 150th Kentucky Derby in May 2024.”

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