Archives for April 2023

Simple Pace Report for Saturday, April 29th

One of the most critical elements of horse racing for a handicapper to evaluate is pace. That’s where the Simple Pace Report comes in.  Based on decades of experience, the Simple Pace Report utilizes an algorithm that analyzes expert pace ratings, running styles and unique horse tendencies to arrive at a rating for each horse. These ratings determine the overall race shape, and each horse is forecasted into their early running position. The Simple Pace Report gives users a quick and easy guide to see how the race will set up, and determine which horses will be at an advantage or disadvantage based on the pace scenario. After reviewing thousands of races and comparing to other products, the pace forecast presented here is the most accurate on the market. Leaders marked with * hold a possible pace advantage.

Take advantage and check out this SimplePaceReport0429-2023 for today’s races.

Derek Simon’s Kentucky Derby Betting Guide for Derby 149

It’s back! The 2023 Kentucky Derby Guide from handicapping guru Derek Simon is the only guide of its kind for the greatest two minutes in sports!

Simon’s in-depth KY Derby report offers 24 pages of insightful information on the most exciting two minutes in sports, the 149th Kentucky Derby.  Just some of the content includes:

Simon’s Historical Investment Technique

The top four S.H.I.T. choices have won 21 of the last 30 renewals of America’s most famous race (70.0 percent), good for a profit of $16,290 for a $100 win bet on each qualified selection.  One horse stands out here and he will be a huge price on the first Saturday in May!

Final Fractions Theory

Derek expounds on the now popular Final Fractions Theory, which was conceived by Colonel Edward R. Bradley and popularized by Jennie Rees. Using more scientific, dynamic values for lengths, find out who the fastest finishers among the Derby entrants are.

Find out:

What trait do 78% of Kentucky Derby winners since 1967 share? What single factor has produced an ROI of 122.5% since 1997? Find out on page 6!

Discover the the workouts trend that has produced a 1-for-74 record in the Derby since 1997 from those that have led to huge profits. Find out on page 8!

Speed Ratings – An in-depth discussion of Brisnet speed figures and what they mean, with an emphasis on “the bounce.”  See the speed rating pattern that has produced zero Kentucky Derby winners (from 38 starters) since 1992. Observe the pattern that has produced a 54 percent ROI as well! Page 16 has the details!  And much more

Download instantly today and attack the Run for the Roses.  Only $25

Derek Simon’s 2023 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide is Here.  Download Today



Computer Assisted Wagering in Horse Racing: A Comprehensive Guide

By Al Hudson

Horse racing has been one of the most popular sports across the globe for several decades, and millions of people enjoy betting on horses every year. In recent years, computer-assisted wagering has gained significant popularity among enthusiasts worldwide. Let’s take a look at what computer-assisted wagering is, how it works, and its affect on the state of the game.

What is Computer-Assisted Wagering in Horse Racing?

Computer-assisted wagering is the use of computer algorithms to help bet on horses in a race. This approach helps bettors analyze statistics, race history, and other relevant data when developing a prediction model for a race’s outcome. The use of machine learning algorithms has made this practice more accurate and reliable in recent years.

Some of the biggest bettors in the country (also known as whales or CAW players) are employing computer algorithms to do their handicapping and compile their bets. Many everyday horseplayers and smaller bettors also use computer programs to handicap but not at the same level of the CAW players.

How It Works

Computer-assisted wagering works by using algorithms designed to sort through a vast amount of data that can influence the outcome of a race. These algorithms can analyze variables such as the horses’ performances in previous races, their speed ratings, jockey statistics, and current conditions of the racetrack. This analysis can lead to the identification of variables that correlate with the winning pattern and help develop prediction models.

Typically, these algorithms work by passing data through a series of filters and analysis tools, identifying patterns and trends that may affect the outcome of a particular race. Once these patterns have been identified, the system can compile a list of horses expected to perform well and generate a betting selection and a complex set of wagers, some of which are based on the live odds of the runners.  When overlays are discovered, the CAW players pound those combinations, oftentimes in the final seconds of wagering.

Goals of Computer-Assisted Wagering

The main goal of computer-assisted wagering is to help increase the chances of winning a bet, thus maximizing profit margins for the user. With proper data analysis and prediction models in place, bettors can select horses that they believe have a higher chance of winning, leading to more significant profits in the long run.

CAW players need only to break even to ensure themselves a small fortune in the form of rebates earned.  These players receive the highest rebates from their respective ADW (Advance Deposit Wagering companies), and thus are incentivized to produce large handles in terms of bets throughout the year.

The Advantages of Computer-Assisted Wagering in Horse Racing

Computer-assisted wagering in horse racing comes with various advantages. Firstly, it enables a bettor to analyze vast amounts of data within a short period of time. This is because computer programs are equipped to process large sets of data in fractions of a second. With this, a bettor can easily identify patterns and make betting decisions based on statistical data.

Secondly, computer-assisted wagering eliminates the element of emotional attachment in betting decisions. Bettors often lose bets due to biased decisions based on their perception of horses, jockeys or trainers. However, with computer-assisted wagering, betting decisions are based on data analysis, resulting in less biased decisions.

Lastly, computer-assisted wagering provides bettors with diverse betting options. This is because computer programs analyze horses’ data and come up with various betting combinations, unlike traditional betting methods that offer limited options.

Utilizing powerful algorithms, machine learning, and predictive analytics, computer-assisted wagering has allowed bettors to analyze vast amounts of data and make more informed decisions than ever before. CAW players process and analyze data at a scale that was previously unimaginable. These bettors consider a wealth of variables, from track conditions and weather patterns to jockey and horse performance, all with a level of accuracy that was previously unattainable.

But it’s not just the sheer volume of data that makes computer-assisted wagering so powerful. The technology’s ability to spot trends and identify patterns means that even the most complex variables can be taken into account when making a bet. They can then evaluate the live odds and place a large volume of bets in the final seconds of wagering.

The problem is that these benefits are only enjoyed by a select few whales within the game of horse racing.

The Fallout

The whales generate their many wagers for each race and then feed those bets through the Tote system in the final minutes (sometimes seconds) before the race goes off.

As the three major Tote companies in horse racing have failed to update their technology over the years, it takes way too long to process these wagers. Consequently, odds drops happen after the race goes off, and in some cases, after the race is over.

“To use a Bronx expression, I would have to be a schmuck to continue to bet as in days of yore in the face of the CAW issue (among others) and my parents did not raise a schmuck.” ~ longtime player Richard Resnick is a letter to TDN about CAW play.

There are examples of this happening every day at tracks around the country.  It doesn’t take long to scroll through ‘racing twitter’ to find someone who is complaining about getting screwed on an odds drop. Worse yet, if you are Win bettor, it doesn’t take long for an odds drop to affect you directly.

Loyal Louie paid $8.80 to win.

This has been going on a long time. Loyal Louie was in front and reaching the wire at odds of 6-1 in the opener at Gulfstream last year. However, when the race was  official, his odds dropped to 3.40-1, or $8.80 to win instead of over $14.

One of the most glaring examples came in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile which was won by Chez Pierre (Fr) on April 14, 2023. Going into the gate at 23-1, the five-year-old gelding hit the wire in front by a large margin.  To the dismay of his many backers, his odds were now 9-1, an incredible odds drop of over 60 percent.

Can you imagine putting in an order to purchase Apple stock at $100 per share only to pay $160 and receive far fewer shares than expected?  The outrage is understandable.


The ADWs accepting these last second bets are owned by some of the biggest racetrack names in the country, and thus, have no motivation to restrict their best players.

It is hard enough for the average Joe horseplayer to survive in this sport of gambling.  These days, they have to do it while never knowing what type of price their horse will be until after the race is over.

CAW play is here to stay, but the industry better find a solution to the problem affecting their regular patrons.  How many times will a racing fan get ‘screwed’ before they look to alternative forms of wagering.  If you bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win or cover a game, you know exactly what risk/return you have on the line.  That type of betting is looking very attractive right now.

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Question and Answers with top Tampa Bay Downs Jockey

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Handicapping Tip of the Day #64

FREE NHC Tour Contests Begin This Weekend

First of Five Free Online NHC Qualifiers Set For April 22

LEXINGTON, Ky. (April 17, 2023) – The first of five free online qualifiers for the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) is set for this Saturday April 22 on, the official online qualifying site of the NHC. The top three finishers in the FREE NHC tour contests will earn automatic berths to the 25th Annual NHC, which is slated to be held at the Horseshoe Las Vegas next March 15-17, 2024. An additional $1,000 in HorsePlayers credits will be distributed to the next top 25 finishers of the contest.

Registration is now open.

The remainder of the free contest schedule for the 2023 NHC Tour is as follows:

· Sunday, May 14

· Saturday, July 1

· Sunday, August 27

· Sunday, October 8

Participants in the online qualifier must be a 2023 NHC Tour member to be eligible to win a qualifying spot to the NHC. Players failing to register for NHC Tour membership prior to the start of this event will forfeit their opportunity to win a qualifying package.

NTRA NHC logoEach winning prize package includes an NHC entry, a four-night stay at the Horseshoe Las Vegas, and a $500 travel reimbursement. All participants will be awarded 50 NHC Tour points and additional NHC Tour points will be awarded to the top 100 finishers.

Tour membership starts at $50 and includes entry to the year’s remaining free online qualifiers, as well as access to dozens of contests each week. To sign up for the NHC Tour, go to Individuals also must be registered at (free).

Every free online contest on is determined by mythical Win and Place wagers on a series of mandatory races across the country with selections submitted in advance of the first designated contest race per the “Pick and Pray” format.

For more information on the NHC and NHC Tour, visit

About the NHC

The NHC is the most important tournament of the year for horseplayers and is the culmination of a year-long series of NTRA-sanctioned local tournaments conducted by racetracks, casino race books, off-track betting facilities, and horse racing and handicapping websites, each of which sends its top qualifiers to the national finals. There are no bye-ins to the NHC. Each year, the NHC winner joins other human and equine champions as an honoree at the Eclipse Awards and is named Horseplayer of the Year. For more information on the NHC, visit


The NTRA, based in Lexington, Ky. and Washington, D.C., is a broad-based coalition of more than 100 horse racing interests and thousands of individual stakeholders consisting of horseplayers, racetrack operators, owners, breeders, trainers and affiliated horse racing associations, charged with increasing the popularity, welfare and integrity of Thoroughbred racing.

The Tells for a Fixed Sports Match

old boxing gloves hang on nail 

Integrity Services analysts working 24/7 and operating from their main base in London to hubs in Montevideo, Melbourne, Singapore, Las Vegas and Minneapolis pore over screens of live sporting fixtures and betting odds.

In 2022, they identified 1,212 suspicious matches within 12 sports across 92 countries.

While reflecting an increase of 34% from 2021, the data confirms 99.5% of sporting events are free from match-fixing, with no single sport having a suspicious match ratio greater than 1%.

Harding has at his disposal “a significant network of reconnaissance photographers” who are sent to stadia. Other members of the intelligence unit can also be deployed on site.

“They [the matchfixers] have to be in the stadium to communicate with players, and at times intimidate the players to go ahead with it,” Harding said…

The Tells for a Fixed Match in Sports