Archives for September 4, 2021

Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar: Sunday’s G1 Prix du Moulin

Preview: G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on Sunday, September 5

The Prix du Moulin is a Group One thoroughbred race for horses aged three years or older, over 1600m at Longchamp. First run in 1957, the event has been staged at the Parisienne venue since 1987. They have raced on the first Sunday in September since 1980 with a view to realigning the European mile division. The aim was to avoid a clash between the Group One contests of the Sussex Stakes, Prix Jacques le Marois and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (all over 1600m). We look at this season’s line-up, which could include a Breeders’ Cup starter or two at Del Mar.

Lope Y Fernandez

Winner of a Listed event on seasonal reappearance, the Aidan O’Brien-trained four-year-old has contested four consecutive Group One events, including a well-held seventh dropping to 1300m in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville last month. This extra distance is likely to help but needs to find something to reach the placings.

Victor Ludorum

A talented performer under the tutelage of André Fabre. Finding it hard to scale the heights at the top table since winning last year’s G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (1600m) with the Shamardal colt finishing downfield in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois (1600m), nearly eight lengths behind the reopposing Poetic Flare. This looks a tough assignment.

Horse racing: Del Mar’s closing weekend includes 4 graded stakes racesOrder Of Australia

Last season’s shock G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner arrives after arguably a career-best performance. The Aidan O’Brien contender is likely first string and ran a good third in the Prix Jacques le Marois after setting a strong pace throughout. He thrives on a fast surface and could play a pivotal pace angle to the contest, with the chance of sneaking a place.

Baaeed

The William Haggas-trained Baaeed has swept all before him in four unbeaten starts, including an easy victory in the G3 Throughbred Stakes (1600m) at Goodwood in July. The son of Sea The Stars had already shown Group One potential prior to that effortless success, with an abundance of scope for progress. This is his toughest test to date, taking on proven Group One winners, but the manner of his victories indicates he rates a leading candidate on his first attempt at this level. He is the style angle versus the substance already showcased by his rivals, which should offer a fascinating conclusion to this epic encounter.

Novemba

Novemba was a Group Two winner in Germany earlier in the campaign. The Gleneagles filly was a fine fourth in the G1 Coronation Stakes (1600m) at Royal Ascot subsequently but has ground to make up with both Snow Lantern (second) and Coeursamba, who ran sixth in the G1 Prix Rothschild (1600m) in August, when Novemba was a well-beaten eleventh.

Snow Lantern

The G1 Falmouth Stakes (1600m) heroine Snow Lantern bids to give Richard Hannon a first win in the race. The daughter of Frankel brings strong form to the event, finishing ahead of a trio of subsequent Group 1 winners in the Newmarket showpiece including Mother Earth who subsequently won the Prix Rothschild, Alcohol Free scored in the G1 Sussex Stakes (1600m) and Lady Bowthorpe was successful in the G1 Prix Nassau (2000m). This track should suit her better than at Goodwood, when a luckless third in the aforementioned Sussex Stakes and she rates a major contender with her three-year-old fillies weight allowance.

Coeursamba

Coeursamba was a determined winner of the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (1600m) at this track prior to a pair of held efforts in subsequent Group One races. The Jean-Claude Rouget-trained three-year-old filly ran better than her finishing position of sixth suggests in the Prix Rothschild, when denied a clear run at a crucial point of the race. She can’t be ruled out for a placing with her age and sex weight allowance.

Source: French PMU

Complimentary Pace Report for Opening Day at Kentucky Downs

Predicting the pace of the race is a critical aspect of successful handicapping.  Today, I present a pace chart which breaks down where each runner is expected to be during the running of the race – on opening day at Kentucky Downs.

Obviously, starting breaks and jockey tendencies/decisions play a major role in how the race plays out.  But put the percentages in your favor BEFORE the race by anticipating how the race will be run.  From there, you can decide which runners may benefit and which may be compromised.  It can often be the deciding factor between choosing your preferred horse in the race.

 

Sunday, 9/5/2021
Kentucky Downs
Race 1 Expected Pace Leaders Stalkers Mid-Pack Closers Unknown/FTS
12.0 Furlongs / Turf Slow 7 3-5-9 2-8-6-4 10-1
Race 2
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Unknown 2 12-14-16 11-4-13-8 1-3-5-6-7-9-10-15
Race 3
8 Furlongs / Turf Very Fast 3-6-5 8-14-7 12-1-2-10 4-11-9-15-16-13
Race 4
8 Furlongs / Turf Modest 6-7 4-9 5-1-10-8 3 2-1A
Race 5
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest 3 9-4-11 13-14-1-10 8-7-6-2-12-5
Race 6
8 Furlongs / Turf Slow 4 6-10-2 7-3-9-8 1-5
Race 7
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest *14 5-12-13 7-11-15-10 8-2-3-9-16-1-6 4
Race 8
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Unknown 6 13-3-7 14-12-8-1 2-4-5-9-10-11-15
Race 9
10.50 Furlongs / Turf Slow 6-7-5 1-4 8-3-2 9
Race 10
10.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 8 4-1-9 12-7-11-3 6-2-5-10
Race 11
6.50 Furlongs / Turf Honest/Fast 10 14-15-13 3-11-5-9 12-1-2-6-8-16-4 7